KALYAN JEWELLERS - SELLING PRESSURE TO CONTINUE AFTER PULLBACKSymbol - KALYANJIL
Kalyan Jewellers has experienced a significant sell-off in recent months, with the stock falling by more than 40%. Historically, such large sell-offs tend to indicate that recovery in the short term can be difficult, as sentiment turns heavily negative and market participants may remain cautious. This suggests that the bearish pressure may persist for a while, and a quick recovery seems unlikely without a significant shift in market sentiment.
We are seeing some pullback and relief rally due to good quarterly results, which has provided a temporary boost to the stock. However, despite this short-term bounce, the overall trend remains bearish, and it is expected to continue until the stock can break above key resistance levels. The trend for Kalyan Jewellers is currently bearish, and this is likely to continue until the stock price manages to break above the key resistance level of 560. Until this level is taken out on the upside, the stock remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. The market is showing signs of weakness, and this trend may not reverse easily in the near term.
In terms of price targets, we could see the stock testing the 520-540 area, which could act as a short-term resistance or consolidation zone. However, it is likely that any bounce from CMP will be temporary, and the stock may fall back after testing this range. The outlook remains cautious, and the stock could potentially test lower levels.
Resistance levels: 545, 560
Support levels: 440, 400
Technically, the bearish trend is expected to persist unless the stock manages to break and sustain above the 560 resistance level. Any retest of the 520-540 support zone should be carefully monitored, as failure to hold this level could suggest further downside risks, with the potential for the stock to continue its decline toward the 440 area & below.
Entry (on retest of resistance), SL & Target levels are indicated on the chart.
Fundamental Analysis
[Mixed Signals] Archean Chemical Industries - What's your view? Archean Chemical Industries Ltd. What's your view?
Fundamentals
MCAP- 7400 Cr
PE - 27.86 < Industry PE of 32.2, Moderately priced
PEG Ratio is 0.64, excellent
Debt to Equity is 0.02 and ICR is 42
ROE is 19.45%, ROCE is 25.75% ( 5yr ROCE is 29.26%)
Sales growth is -17%, 5yr Sales growth is 18%
Profit Growth is -33%, 5yr Profit growth is 43%
Promoter holding is 53.44% , marginally down in last one year
FII Holding has gone up steadily in past few quarters
DII holding on downtrend , in last few quarters
Latest results - Poor results for past few quarters
Technicals
CMP - 596
Bearish - below EMA 9, 21,63, 200 on daily charts , RSI(14) is 19
Much oversold
Commentary
As seen in the charts the stock has
1.Formed a head and shoulder pattern. If it decisively breaks below 580-600 zone, it should head straight to 520 levels as per head and shoulders target
Bearish Target : 520
Stop loss : 600, just above 590 levels
Timeframe : 6-9 months
2. Also reached near demand zone at 590 levels. It has taken support from 590 levels multiple times in the past and risen above.
Bullish Target : 650>725>800
Stop loss : 580
Timeframe : 6-9 months
Risks : Poor results in the last few quarters.
I will be firming up my view in the next couple of weeks based on results on Feb 3rd.
Disclosure 1 - Invested
Disclosure 3 - This is Not investment advice. Treat it as educational
[High Risk] Laurus Lab - Real breakout or fakeout? What's cookin Laurus Lab - Real breakout or fakeout? What's cooking?
Fundamentals
MCAP- 31000 Cr
PE - 242 > Industry PE of 34.51, Extremely expensive
PEG Ratio is 21.31
Debt to Equity is 0.67 and ICR is 1.9
ROE is 4%, ROCE is 6.6% ( 5yr ROCE is 21%)
Sales growth is -5%, 5yr Sales growth is 17%
Profit Growth is -65%, 5yr Profit growth is 11%
Promoter holding is 27% , constant in last one year
FII Holding has gone up steadily in past few quarters
DII holding on uptrend , however has reduced slightly in last quarter
Latest results - Poor results for past few quarters and hence risky preposition
Technicals
CMP - 586
Bullish - Above EMA 9, 21,63, 200 on daily charts , RSI(14) is 67
Nearly overbought
Commentary
As seen in the charts , the stock has been trading in the parallel channel since mid 2023. Recently it has broken out of this parallel channel with steady volumes near 520-530 range
The stock has to move above the multi year resistance at 600-625 range to touch ATH of 720
Target :
T1 : 600>625>720
Timeframe : 3-6 months
Risks : Poor results in the last few quarters. Have a strict stop loss as per your risk appetite.
Disclosure 1 - Invested
Disclosure 2 - Not SEBI Registered
Disclosure 3 - This is Not investment advice. Treat it as educational
Gold Break All Time High Again And Again🌍 Market Overview: Gold Bullish Expansion
Continues bullish momentum, reaching a new All-Time High (ATH).
Driven by USD weakness and improved global sentiment.
Key Drivers:
🔹 Postponed Tariffs: Delay on tariffs for Canada & Mexico boosted investor confidence.
🔹 China's Retaliation: Symbolic tariff actions by China, with minimal real economic impact.
15-Minute Chart
• Key Observations:
o Strong bullish momentum is evident, with price repeatedly breaking previous highs.
o A key support zone is established around $2,840, reflecting strong buying interest.
o Recent bullish movement aligns with improved investor confidence due to postponed
tariffs on Canada & Mexico and symbolic Chinese tariff retaliation.
• Market Sentiment:
o Bullish sentiment is dominant, likely fueled by favorable
geopolitical and economic developments.
o Immediate resistance is near the all-time high levels;
a clear breakout could indicate further upside.
________________________________________
4-Hour Chart
🚀 Key Observations:
Price is trading within an upward parallel channel, confirming a consistent bullish trend.
A breakout and successful retest of the upper boundary of the channel signals potential continuation of the bullish move.
The price has established higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong uptrend.
Technical Levels:
Resistance: Near $2,860-$2,865 (current high levels).
Support: $2,820 (middle channel boundary).
________________________________________
Conclusion:
• Overall Bias: Strongly bullish in both short and medium time frames.
• Trading Strategy:
o 🔵For buyers: Consider entries on pullbacks toward $2,840-$2,845 (support zone).
o For breakout traders: A clear break above $2,865 with strong volume may
present an opportunity to ride the trend.
o For risk management: Place stop-loss below $2,820,
as a breach could indicate a potential reversal.
⚡️The Result?
👉Gold continues to break records, hitting 2848 - 2850 this morning, a key Fibonacci
Extension (FE) resistance zone. However, selling pressure remains weak, and price
action still favors bulls. NO FOMO SELL at this level!
👉 Always follow TP/SL to protect your capital and maximize profits!
Stay tuned for updates once the confirmations are in place !
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
📢 Best Regards , Silver Wolf Traders Community
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only.
Always trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively
Database Trading Part 1Database trading is a method of using data to make better decisions in the market. It involves using data analysis to improve profits and avoid costly mistakes.
How does database trading work?
Data collection: Data is collected from various sources, such as stock exchanges, third-party financial data vendors, investment banks, and hedge funds
Data analysis: The data is analyzed to identify patterns and trends
Decision making: The data analysis is used to make decisions about trading, such as when to buy or sell
Execution: The decisions are executed by machines or humans
Benefits of database trading Helps improve profits, Helps avoid costly mistakes, and Helps navigate the markets.
Examples of trading strategies
Day trading
Involves making many trades in a single day to profit from short-term price changes
Algorithmic trading
Involves using computer programs to execute trades based on predefined rules
Event trading
Involves profiting from short-term price movements triggered by specific events
Position trading
Involves holding positions for an extended period to profit from price movements
Database Trading Part 5Trading data is a sub-category of financial market data. It provides real-time information about stock and market prices as well as historical trends for assets such as equities, fixed-income products, currencies and derivatives.
How does database trading work?
Data collection: Data is collected from various sources, such as stock exchanges, third-party financial data vendors, investment banks, and hedge funds
Data analysis: The data is analyzed to identify patterns and trends
Decision making: The data analysis is used to make decisions about trading, such as when to buy or sell
Execution: The decisions are executed by machines or humans
Use of RSI in tradingThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator that helps traders assess the momentum of an asset's price. It's used to identify overbought and oversold market conditions, and to provide buy and sell signals
How to use RSI
Identify overbought and oversold conditions
RSI values above 70 indicate overbought conditions, while values below 30 indicate oversold conditions.
Confirm trends
Use the RSI to validate trends and trend reversals. For example, a downward trend is confirmed when the RSI crosses from above 50 to below 50.
Provide buy and sell signals
Use the RSI to determine when to enter and exit positions. For example, low RSI levels indicate oversold conditions, which may generate a potential buy signal.
Combine with other indicators
Use the RSI with other technical indicators to identify market trends and confirm signals. For example, you can combine RSI with moving averages to identify strong assets in uptrends
Macd divergenceThe indicator is calculated by subtracting a 26-period Exponential Moving Average from the 12-period moving average. There is also a histogram available on the indicator which can also be used as a divergence indicator. As a result, you will then see the MACD line, which shows as an indicator below the price chart.
For daily charts, many traders find the default MACD settings (12, 26, 9) to be very effective. This timeframe captures the broader market trends and helps filter out market noise. Combine MACD with other indicators like RSI or Bollinger Bands when analyzing a 1-day chart for a more comprehensive market view
option-chain pcrA PCR above 0.7 or 1 reflects increased put option purchases, indicating bearish sentiment as investors hedge against potential sell-offs or speculate on falling prices. A PCR below 0.7, especially closer to 0.5, signals bullish sentiment, suggesting optimism for market gains.
No PCR is considered ideal, but a PCR below 0.7 is typically viewed as a strong bullish sentiment while a PCR above 1 is typically viewed as a strong bearish sentiment.
momentum tradingMomentum trading is a strategy that aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Momentum traders usually buy or sell an asset moving intensely in one direction and exiting when this movement shows signs of reversing. They also seek to avoid buying or selling assets that are moving sideways
While it can be a profitable strategy when executed correctly, it's important to manage risk and be aware of the potential downsides. What is the concept of momentum trading? Momentum trading is an investment strategy that involves buying assets that are trending upward and selling those that are trending downward
Important Timeframes in MarketThe best time frame for intraday trading depends on your goals, experience, and the stock you're trading. For beginners, mid-day hours with 15-minute charts offer a safer environment, while experienced traders can take advantage of the high volatility during opening and closing hours.
The 3 5 7 rule is a risk management strategy in trading that emphasizes limiting risk on each individual trade to 3% of the trading capital, keeping overall exposure to 5% across all trades, and ensuring that winning trades yield at least 7% more profit than losing trades.
happy trading!!!
RSI basic to advanceAn RSI divergence occurs when the indicator and price begin to reach different levels, indicating a change in momentum that precedes a change in price direction. For example, a bullish divergence occurs when the security makes a lower low but the indicator forms a higher low.
Low RSI levels, typically below 30 (red line), indicate oversold conditions—generating a potential buy signal. Conversely, high RSI levels, typically above 70 (green line), indicate overbought conditions—generating a potential sell signal
ICICI Prudential: Oversold and Poised for Recovery Topic Statement: ICICI Prudential Life Insurance has made a healthy correction, positioning itself near strong support levels within an up-trending channel.
Key Points:
1. The company reported a robust 43% profit growth QoQ.
2. The price is moving in an up-trending channel, providing clear trading opportunities.
3. The stock is taking support at the lower end of the channel, indicating oversold conditions.
4. The price is near the 180-day moving average, reinforcing the oversold status.
5. Weekly MFI is at 34 which also indicates the price being oversold.
chambal firtilizersSwing Stock - #CHAMBLFERT
Pattern - Resistance
TF - 2 HR
Resistance Level - 512-514
Possible Target - 530/545+
happy trading!!!
The intrinsic value of one CHAMBLFERT stock under the Base Case scenario is 582.04 INR. Compared to the current market price of 494 INR, Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Ltd is Undervalued by 15%
intellect design idea#INTELLECT Add to swing watchlist, Hourly timeframe
Inside bar setup active will be active only above 817
Resistance of 860
Can add on dips till 790
happy trading!!!
The stock's ratio of 45.06x is currently trading slightly above its industry peers' ratio of 41.27x, which means if you buy Intellect Design Arena today, you'd be paying a relatively sensible price for it.
BankNifty is in value buy zone Banknifty is deep value buy zone. In near future this can go beyond 55000 and we are trading near 48000. INR depreciation coupled with Trump check in and upcoming budget has created a volatility in the market, it's a great time to accumulate for the long term. Keep buying every dip.
BNF's PE ratio is below mean and is bound to rebound with slightest signal in economic upturn.
Keep buying BNF
Asiann Paint Results - Is the picture green now or still red?Asian Paint stock has surprised its investors in the past its unexpected fall in the past few months. The quarterly results has not been as exciting but looks like the street had already priced in all the misdoings. That is why the stock has risen over 6% since 30th Jan.
How likely are we to see this stock in green in the coming months? Let's watch this video to find out answers.
Gold analysis The image is a 15-minute chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from TradingView, showing a sell trade setup. Here are the key details:
Sell Trade Breakdown:
1. Entry Point & Resistance Zone:
The price is near a resistance level at 2,820.816.
A sell position is opened around 2,817.904 - 2,814.710.
2. Stop-Loss (Risk Area - Red Zone):
The stop-loss is placed slightly above the 2,820.816 resistance zone.
If the price breaks above this level, the trade will be invalidated.
3. Take-Profit Target (Green Zone - Reward Area):
The target is set in the 2,785 - 2,772 range.
A strong support zone is marked around 2,772.215, which is the lowest point in the setup.
4. Trendlines & Key Levels:
There is a descending trendline acting as resistance.
Multiple support zones (green highlighted areas) indicate potential bounce points.
5. Risk-Reward Ratio:
The trade follows a risk-to-reward strategy, where the potential downside is much larger than the risk.
Analysis & Outlook:
If the price fails to break above the resistance zone, it is likely to drop towards the support area around 2,785 - 2,772.
A break below 2,772 could lead to a further decline toward the next support level near 2,730.
If the price closes above 2,820, the sell setup may be invalid.
DEEPAKFERT Showing Strength From Base With Good Q3NSE:DEEPAKFERT showed strength today bouncing from a good base on the back of good Q3 Results, with RSI and MACD Showing Strength.
Q3 consolidated net profit jumped more than four times Y/Y, while revenue from operations climbed 39% Y/Y. Management says revenue from its crop protection business rose 55% due to good monsoon. Its profit margin also expanded to 10% from 3% a year ago. REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS 25.79 BILLION RUPEES, NET PROFIT 2.51 BILLION RUPEES.
Trade Setup:
It can be a Good 1:2 RISK-REWARD Trade with the recent being base being crucial.
Target(Take Profit):
52wh Levels for Swing Trader and 1522 for Positional Trader.
Stop-Loss:
Entry Candle Low For Swing Trader and a Recent Base of 1071 for Positional Trader.
📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable.
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Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas below until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback.
Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Trendline Breakout in VMM
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%