FILATEX: a probable long➡️decent RS rating
➡️improvement in EPS YoY, cash cycle and operating cash flow
➡️promoter holding at 65%
➡️trading above 20 EMA
➡️entered with a stop loss of 55
➡️huge volume spike
Fundamental Analysis
TajGVK Hotels & Resorts LtdDate 27.07.2025
Taj Gvk
Timeframe : Day Chart
Technical remarks :
1 After the breakout of Descending triangle, created Diamond pattern
2 Diamond pattern accumulation/distribution is most powerful pattern
3 At present in confluence wit ichimoku clod + 200 ema stock is holding a support
4 In case of breakdown, it will be a very high momentum breakdown from Diamond pattern + 200 Ema + Ichimoku cloud + support/resistance zone
5 Therefore, this support zone is make or break for the stock/company
Fundamental Remarks :
About :
Joint venture between the Hyderabad-based GVK Group and Indian Hotels Company Limited (IHCL)
IHCL is a promoter with a 25.52% stake in the company
Hotel Portfolio
The company owns and operates 6 premium hotel properties
inventory of ~1,240 rooms at a consolidated level
Taj Krishna, Taj Deccan, and Vivanta, Begumpet are located in Hyderabad with a total inventory of 601 rooms.
149-room hotel in Chandigarh (Taj Chandigarh)
220-room hotel in Chennai (Taj Club House)
It also owns a 279-room property, Taj Santacruz in Mumbai, through its JV Green Woods Palaces & Resorts Pvt Ltd, in which it holds a ~49% stake
The company holds ~10% of the market share in Hyderabad
Revenue Mix FY24
Rooms, Food, Restaurant revenue - 97%
Membership fees & Others - 2%
Shop Rentals - 1%
Key Metrics
Average Room Rate: Rs. ~7,900
Occupancy Rate: 78%
Debt
Overall debt levels have declined to Rs. 108 Cr from Rs. 214 Cr in FY22.
It is focused on achieving a net debt zero target by FY25
Operating Profit margins = 31% (YOY)
Steady sales growth between 8%-12% (YOY)
Regards,
Ankur
UPL LTD Date 27.07.2025
UPL
Timeframe : Weekly
Technical remark :
Amid heavy correction in broader market, Upl is holding strong after the breakout from symmetrical triangle.
Keep 670 as swing stop-loss & trail
About :
UPL is principally engaged in the business of agrochemicals, industrial chemicals, chemical intermediates, speciality chemicals and production and sale of field crops and vegetable seeds.
14,000+ product registrations
140 countries presence
Access to 90% of the world’s food basket
Through its agtech platform ‘Nurture' it is connected with
3 million registered farmers
85,000+ retailers
25,000 dealers
Revenue Segment :
Crop Protection (84%)
Seed Business (11%)
Non- Agro (6%)
Geographical Revenue Share
Latin America - 41%
North America - 16%
Europe - 14%
India - 12%
Rest of the World - 17%
Valuations :
PE Ratio = 72
Roce = 7.66%
Roe = 3%
Book Value = 2X
OPM = 15%
Holding Pattern :
Promoter = 33.49%
FII = 33.90%
DII = 18.09%
Public = 13.50%
Others = 1.02%
Regards,
Ankur
HCL Technologies Ltd.HCL Tech is a leading global IT services company, which is ranked amongst the top five Indian IT services companies in terms of revenues. Since its inception into the global landscape after its IPO in 1999, HCL Tech has focused on transformational outsourcing, and offers an integrated portfolio of services including software-led IT solutions, remote infrastructure management, engineering and R&D services and BPO. The company leverages its extensive global offshore infrastructure and network of offices in 46 countries to provide multi-service delivery in key industry verticals.
Market Cap: ₹ 4,04,363 Cr.
Promoter holding: 60.8 %
FII holding: 18.6 %
DII holding: 16.2 %
Public holding: 4.24 %
Debt: ₹ 6,276 Cr.
Debt 3Years back: ₹ 6,343 Cr.
Analysis: Current wave showing some selling pressure. This is weekly chart, so if you see there, 1310-1375 is crucial support zone. where 1300 is strong support. Once this is break then it will be give more fall till 930 where again new strong support will be formed.
930 is the possible reversal level. So, If it is reversed from 930, then targets will be 1180-1467-1590-2012-2685.
So, best opportunity will come in the HCL Tech soon.
Sterlite Technologies Ltd - Near Breakout.Sterlite Technologies Limited was established in July 2001 after the demerger of the telecom division of Sterlite Industries Ltd (SIL). In July 2006, STL acquired the transmission line business of SIL to foray into the power transmission cables business. STL has grown over the years to become the largest Optical Fiber and Optical Fiber Cables manufacturer in the country. The company also has sizeable presence in the overseas markets with an established presence in the global optical fiber market.
The company’s global ex-China Optical Fiber Cables (OFC) market share was 8% in FY24 vs 12% in FY23. It is among the largest and lowest-cost producers of Optical Fibre and OFC in India because of extensive backward integration.
Order Book
As of Q4 FY24, the company's order book stood at Rs. ~10,200 Cr vs Rs. ~9,800 Cr in Q3 FY24.
Telcos: 59%
Citizen Networks: 22%
Enterprises: 19%.
Optical Connectivity portfolio in US
On 29 July 24, the company announce the expansion of its Optical Networking capability with the addition of its Optical Connectivity portfolio in the US market.
Market Cap: ₹ 5,723 Cr.
Promoter holding: 44.4 %
FII holding: 6.74 %
DII holding: 11.3 %
Public holding: 37.5 %
Debt: ₹ 1,926 Cr.
Debt 3 Years back: ₹ 3,475 Cr.
Note: Debt is decreasing
Southern Petrochemicals Industries Corporation - Near Breakout Southern Petrochemicals Industries Corporation Ltd is engaged in manufacturing and selling Urea and Nitrogenous chemical fertilizer.
The company’s product offerings include Primary nutrients, Secondary Nutrients, Water Soluble Fertilisers, Organic Fertilisers, Non-edible deoiled Cake Fertilisers, pesticides, industrial products, etc.
Power Arrangements
The company’s associate Greenam Energy operates a 22.0 MW AC Floating Solar Project to meet the Renewable Power obligations stipulated by the Government.
Market Cap: ₹ 2,008 Cr.
Promoter holding: 53.4 %
FII holding: 6.53 %
DII holding: 0.29 %
Public holding: 39.8 %
Debt: ₹ 722 Cr.
Debt 3Years back: ₹ 305 Cr.
Vimta LabsVimta Labs
VLL is is in the business of contract research and testing in the fields of biologics, small molecules, agro -chemicals, food & beverages, electronics, clinical diagnostics, medical devices, home and personal care products, and environment testing
On July 12th 2024, company approved the scheme of amalgamation of its Wholly Owned Subsidiary company viz. Emtac Laboratories Pvt. Ltd. with the Holding Company
Market Cap: ₹ 2,603 Cr.
Promoter holding: 36.7 %
FII holding: 3.49 %
DII holding: 1.42 %
Public holding: 58.4 %
Debt: ₹ 8.52 Cr.
Debt 3Years back: ₹ 19.0 Cr.
Looks good to buy and hold for the given Targets.
BTC MOVEMENT BULLISH OR BEARISH ?btc create a new ath 128000 ? BINANCE:BTCUSDT
btc in down trend line if the trend line breakout and wait for the conformation to retracement
entry in retracement take long
Institutional Option Trading🏛️ Institutional Option Trading
Institutional Option Trading refers to how large financial institutions like hedge funds 📊, investment banks 🏦, insurance firms 🧾, and asset managers 💼 use options contracts strategically to hedge risks, generate income, or make large, leveraged bets with controlled risk.
These institutions trade options using:
🧠 Advanced analytics & algorithms
📉 Volatility-based strategies (like straddles, condors, and spreads)
📊 Risk-neutral positioning using Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta, etc.)
🛡️ Portfolio hedging & macroeconomic plays
💼 Multi-million dollar contracts with custom structures
Their trading is not based on emotions, but on probabilities, risk-reward analysis, and long-term objectives.
📌 In simple words:
Institutional Option Trading is how big players use options smartly to manage risk and extract value — with precision, scale, and professional tools. 💼⚙️📈
Technical Class📚 Technical Class
A Technical Class in trading is a structured learning program focused on teaching you how to read and analyze price charts 📈, indicators 📊, and market patterns 🔁 to make smart and profitable trading decisions.
In a good technical class, you’ll learn to:
🔍 Read candlestick charts like a pro
🧱 Identify support & resistance levels
📉 Spot breakouts, fakeouts, and trend reversals
🔄 Use moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume tools
🧠 Understand market psychology through patterns
📌 Time your entry and exit points with precision
⚖️ Combine multiple indicators for confirmation
These classes are perfect for:
🚀 Beginners who want to build a strong foundation
📈 Intermediate traders ready to sharpen their skills
🎯 Anyone looking to trade based on logic, not emotion
📌 In simple words:
A Technical Class teaches you how to "read the market" — using charts, patterns, and indicators — so you can trade with confidence, clarity, and strategy.
“Still losing? It’s not your system – it’s your state of mind.”Still Losing Money? It's Not Your Strategy – It’s Your Mind That’s Failing You
Let’s be brutally honest.
Have you been repeating the same mistakes over and over… even though you know they’re wrong?
You know you shouldn’t enter trades without confirmation – but you do.
You know your stop-loss should be fixed – yet you keep moving it.
You know your mental state isn’t stable today – but you open the chart anyway and… trade again.
Don’t blame the market.
You’re not losing because it’s “manipulated.”
You’re losing because your emotions are in control – not your logic.
💣 The most dangerous mindset: Knowing it’s wrong… and still doing it
It’s not about lacking knowledge.
It’s not about having a weak strategy.
It’s about being hijacked by your own emotional reactions.
Ask yourself sincerely:
Are you trading to avoid boredom, anxiety, or emotional pain?
Do you open charts just to escape from real-life stress?
Are your trades a form of self-soothing rather than strategic action?
If yes, then it’s no longer about technical skills.
It’s about emotional management – and inner healing.
👹 Three psychological traps that silently ruin your trading every day:
1. FOMO – Fear of Missing Out
You see price running.
You see others winning.
You panic – “I cannot miss this one!”
→ You enter the trade impulsively, not logically.
FOMO means you don’t trust yourself to wait for better chances.
It’s fear-driven, not system-driven.
2. Revenge Trading – You just can’t stand losing
One loss and your ego is bruised.
You want to "get it back" instantly.
So you fight the market like it owes you something.
But the market doesn’t care.
You’re just venting your frustration – and losing even more in the process.
3. Overtrading – You tie your self-worth to every single trade
You feel valuable only when you’re placing trades.
Doing nothing feels like failure.
So you keep clicking – even without a plan.
Overtrading reflects your need to feel in control, even if it costs you your capital.
🔍 Harsh truth: You’re not losing to the market – you’re losing to your expectations
You expect to win fast.
To become rich fast.
To prove something to others – or to yourself.
And when that doesn’t happen, you spiral.
You're not really trading the charts.
You're trading your emotions.
✅ So what’s the solution?
Stop immediately when you feel emotionally unstable – no matter if you're in profit or loss.
Maintain a journal for your thoughts, not just your trades – track what you feel, not just what you did.
Ask yourself honestly:
Am I trading for profit, or to escape something?
Is this setup real, or am I afraid of missing out?
Invest in your inner self: meditation, walks, talking to a coach or mentor, resting properly.
💬 Final message:
Losing is not the problem.
Refusing to confront the real reason behind your losses – that’s the real danger.
You don’t need a new indicator.
You don’t need a magical strategy.
You need one decent system – and a calm, emotionally neutral mind to execute it.
The game is not on the screen.
It’s inside your head.
#TradingPsychologyIndia #MindsetForSuccess #FOMOTrading #RevengeTrading #OvertradingIssues
#ForexIndia #NSETrader #DisciplineInTrading #TradingStruggles #EmotionalAwareness #TradeLikeAPro
#MentalStrengthInMarkets #TradingMindsetMatters #ConsistencyInTrading
Ola electric: extreme down trend and debtOla electric- the stock has been in a long down trend and made it's all time low around 39.60.
Company fundamentals are widely changed post IPO, service concerns and the management is in questionable position. Debt is also concern.
Stock once hit it all time high if 157.4.
I suggest to exit and stay away if the levels break down the line 38.70 Completely exit and stay away
Advance Option Trading🔶 What Is Advanced Options Trading?
Advanced Options Trading goes beyond buying and selling simple Calls and Puts. It’s about using multi-leg strategies, managing risk with precision, applying greeks and volatility, and aligning your trades with market conditions.
Advanced traders treat options like a math-based chess game. They don’t gamble—they strategize, hedge, spread, and use data-driven decisions to extract profits in all kinds of markets (bullish, bearish, sideways, volatile, calm).
🔍 Why Learn Advanced Options Trading?
While beginners just "buy options" hoping for a quick profit, advanced traders use options to:
Control risk
Earn consistent income
Capitalize on volatility
Trade sideways or range-bound markets
Create hedges for portfolios
Use smart capital deployment with defined risk
2️⃣ Implied Volatility (IV)
IV tells you how expensive or cheap options are.
📈 High IV = Options are expensive → Ideal for selling
📉 Low IV = Options are cheap → Ideal for buying
Advanced traders use:
IV Rank / IV Percentile
Volatility skew analysis
Volatility crush trades around earnings or events
3️⃣ Option Strategies
Here’s where real skills come in. Advanced trading uses multi-leg strategies to limit loss, increase odds, or make money in non-directional moves.
🔍 Strategy Example: Iron Condor
Sell 22000 CE
Sell 21800 PE
Buy 22100 CE (hedge)
Buy 21700 PE (hedge)
You’ll profit if the index stays between 21800 and 22000, and time decay works in your favor.
✅ Defined risk
✅ Limited profit
✅ Great for expiry week if market is range-bound
💹 Advanced Techniques for Smart Trading
Let’s now explore how pros operate:
🔸 A. Delta-Neutral Trading
Institutional or advanced traders often create delta-neutral positions—no directional bias.
Example:
Buy Call option (Delta +50)
Sell Put option (Delta -50)
Net Delta = 0 → Neutral. The position doesn’t care which way market moves—only volatility or time decay matters.
🔸 B. Hedging with Options
Advanced traders hedge their stock or futures positions using options.
Example:
You hold ₹5 lakh worth of Reliance shares
You buy Reliance PUT options to protect downside risk
Result? You keep profits if stock goes up and protect capital if it drops. It's like insurance.
🔸 C. Trading Earnings or Events
Options let you trade volatility, not just direction. Ahead of events like:
Earnings reports
RBI or Fed meetings
Budget announcements
You can use:
Straddles / Strangles (if expecting big move)
Iron Condors (if expecting no major move)
Calendar spreads (to exploit IV difference)
🔸 D. IV Crush Strategy
Before major events, IV rises. After the event, IV drops (called IV crush).
Advanced traders:
Sell options before events (high premium)
Buy options after IV crash (cheap premium)
They know when NOT to buy options just before news—because premium is inflated!
🔸 E. Adjusting Trades
Advanced traders don’t just “hope” for success. If a trade goes wrong, they adjust it:
Roll to a new strike
Convert from debit to credit spreads
Hedge with opposite positions
Manage Delta/Theta/Vega exposure
This proactive style protects capital and increases recovery chances.
🛠️ Tools Used by Advanced Option Traders
Opstra / Sensibull – Strategy builder, Greek analyzer
TradingView – Charting & technical levels
OI Analysis Platforms – For understanding institutional footprints
Python / Excel – Custom backtesting tools
Algo Platforms – For speed and logic-based execution
📌 Important Rules for Advanced Option Traders
Don't chase trades. Let trades come to you.
Always define risk before entering.
Use multi-leg setups, not naked options unless there's an edge.
Stay Theta positive in low volatility markets.
Only buy options when IV is low and breakout is expected.
✅ Final Thoughts
Advanced options trading is a skillset—not a shortcut.
If you:
Want consistent profits
Wish to trade like institutions
Hate gambling and want a plan
Love logic, numbers, and control
…then advanced option trading is your next big step.
It gives you the tools to win in all market types, not just trending ones.
Choas! FEDvsJust think! There is a possibility to price reach 3406 region by fake news and fall hard !...
WW1 111 years completion.
9th of av ahead.
September needs some drama too.
Don't be bullish until price set new high in XAUUSD.
Dixon Technologies Ltd – Breakout Alert📈Technical Analysis
Dixon Technologies Ltd has shown a strong long-term uptrend since 2018, following a consistent Buy-on-Dips structure. The stock hit its All-Time High in Dec 2024, post which it corrected nearly 36%, forming a series of Lower Highs.
Currently, it's trading at ₹16,556, and today it broke the most recent Lower High, indicating a potential trend reversal. Interestingly, this technical breakout aligns with strong Q4 results, further supporting bullish sentiment.
The next key resistance lies at ₹17,000 – an earlier lower high. A breakout above this level, followed by a bullish retest, could pave the way for a fresh rally.
🎯Upside Targets:
🎯Target 1: ₹17,500
🎯Target 2: ₹18,000
🎯Target 3: ₹18,500
🛡️Key Support Levels:
₹14,000 (Minor Support)
₹12,000 (Major Demand Zone)
If these supports fail, the bullish structure may be invalidated.
💰FY24 Financial Performance (vs FY23 & FY22)
Total Income: ₹38,860 Cr (↑ +120% vs ₹17,691 Cr; ↑ +219% vs ₹12,192 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹37,353 Cr (↑ +120% vs ₹16,988 Cr; ↑ +215% vs ₹11,873 Cr)
Financing Profit: ₹1,508 Cr (↑ +114% vs ₹705 Cr; ↑ +190% vs ₹519 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹1,570 Cr (↑ +218% vs ₹494 Cr; ↑ +355% vs ₹345 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹1,233 Cr (↑ +228% vs ₹375 Cr; ↑ +384% vs ₹255 Cr)
EPS: ₹181.87 (↑ +196% vs ₹61.47; ↑ +325% vs ₹42.90)
📌Exceptional growth across all metrics indicates robust demand, streamlined costs, and successful scaling.
🔍Fundamental Strengths
CAGR & Profitability: 45%+ revenue CAGR over 5 years, with ROE ~28%
FY25 Estimates: Revenue at ₹38,860 Cr (+120%) and PAT at ₹1,100 Cr (+198%)
Q4 Highlights: PAT jumped 322% YoY to ₹401 Cr on a 121% surge in revenue to ₹10,293 Cr
Financial Discipline: Minimal debt (total debt/ equity ~0.07), strong cash flows, and high asset turnover
Operational Scale: 17 manufacturing units; JV with Vivo in Dec 2024 indicates strategy expansion
✅Conclusion
Dixon is showing a compelling technical breakout, backed by outstanding FY24 and Q4 results. Uptick above ₹17,000 with solid support suggests continuation toward ₹18,500. Strong fundamentals reinforce medium‑term potential, but critical stops at ₹14,000 and ₹12,000 should be respected.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Strong Reversal Backed by Breakout and Robust Q4I am speaking about the IOC Ltd stock. Technically, I’ve been observing this stock’s chart for over two decades. In Feb 2024, it created an All-Time High at ₹197. From there, it consolidated till Sept 2024, followed by a sharp correction to ₹110 by March 2025. This ₹110 level acted as a strong demand zone and the stock rallied sharply from there.
Currently, it's trading at ₹152, forming an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, and the price has already broken above the neckline — a bullish signal.
🎯Targets
Target 1: ₹170
Target 2: ₹180
Target 3: ₹190
📉Stop Loss Levels
First Stop Loss: ₹135 (shoulder low)
Final Stop Loss: ₹110 (major demand zone)
💰Q4 FY24 Financial Highlights (vs Q3 FY24 & Q4 FY23)
Total Income:₹1,95,270 Cr (↑ flat vs ₹1,94,014 Cr; ↓ -2% vs ₹1,98,650 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹1,80,241 Cr (↓ -3% vs ₹1,86,442 Cr; ↓ -4% vs ₹1,86,675 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹15,029 Cr (↑ +98% vs ₹7,573 Cr; ↑ +25% vs ₹11,975 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹10,045 Cr (↑ +263% vs ₹2,766 Cr; ↑ +35% vs ₹7,420 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹8,368 Cr (↑ +290% vs ₹2,147 Cr; ↑ +52% vs ₹5,488 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹5.75 (↑ from ₹1.50 QoQ; ↑ from ₹3.65 YoY)
🧾Fundamental Insights
🛢️IOC has benefited from softening crude oil prices and improved gross refining margins (GRMs), leading to better operating performance.
📦Strong inventory gains and better refining throughput also contributed to profitability.
💵The company declared a final dividend of ₹7 per share for FY24, rewarding shareholders amid solid earnings.
🏭Capex plans continue across petrochemical expansions and refinery upgrades, securing long-term growth.
🌱The management also highlighted a push toward energy transition — expanding green hydrogen and EV charging infrastructure.
Conclusion:
IOC Ltd is showing a strong technical breakout and backed by solid fundamentals in Q4. If the bullish pattern sustains, investors may see a retest of all-time highs in coming weeks.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
INDIANB Price ActionAs of July 24, 2025, Indian Bank (INDIANB) is trading around ₹639, showing strong momentum after recovering from recent declines. The stock is close to its 52-week high of approximately ₹658, indicating a robust upward trend in the public sector banking space.
The bank has demonstrated consistent financial growth, with a 14% year-on-year increase in both deposits and advances, currently standing above ₹63,000 crore and ₹53,000 crore respectively. Total business volume grew to over ₹1.16 lakh crore. Net profit for the last financial year increased by 11% to around ₹1,124 crore.
Asset quality has improved, with gross non-performing assets (NPA) reducing to 3.09% and net NPA to 1.25%. The provision coverage ratio is strong at 78%, reflecting prudent risk management. Net interest margin (NIM) is stable at approximately 3.6%, supporting healthy core profitability. The cost-to-income ratio is near 48%, indicating moderate operational efficiency.
Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) stand around 1.55% and 12.6% respectively, highlighting solid returns relative to asset base and shareholder equity. Capital adequacy ratios remain comfortable under Basel III norms.
Technically, Indian Bank’s stock is trading above major moving averages (5, 20, 50, 100, 200 days), confirming positive price momentum. Year-to-date, the stock has delivered over 21% returns, outperforming many peers in the public sector banking segment.
Overall, Indian Bank presents a strong growth and stability profile with improving asset quality, stable margins, and expanding business volumes, making it an attractive candidate in the public banking sector for medium to long-term investors.
CHEMFAB Price ActionAs of late July 2025, Chemfab Alkalis Ltd is trading near ₹789 with recent price movements signaling some short-term recovery after a significant correction from the past year’s highs. The stock’s 52-week range is ₹650 to ₹1,230, reflecting substantial volatility over the past twelve months.
Chemfab’s market capitalization stands close to ₹1,130 crore, classifying it as a small-cap chemical manufacturer. The company specializes in basic inorganic chemicals and PVC-O pipes, mainly serving industries that require chlor alkali products.
Financially, recent results show net sales of about ₹92 crore for the March 2025 quarter, a year-on-year increase of roughly 12%. Despite this sales growth, profitability is under pressure, with negative trailing earnings; the latest EPS is around –₹4.8, resulting in a negative P/E ratio. The price-to-book ratio is almost 3, indicating the stock is priced at a premium to its book value. Return on capital employed and return on equity remain low, consistent with current profit margins.
In recent months, the stock’s price trend has been weak, down nearly 17% over six months and over 5% for the past three months, despite a near 7% rise in the last week. Liquidity and trade volumes are moderate and typical for its peer group.
Key risks include limited profit momentum, historically low return ratios, and high valuation multiples given the negative earnings. However, the company maintains a stable balance sheet, low financial leverage, and gradual growth in its core segment.
Chemfab Alkalis is best suited for investors interested in turnaround or deep value plays within the specialty chemicals sector, but caution is warranted because of volatile earnings and the stock’s premium to book value even amid operational challenges.
Investment case BANK OF MAHARASTHRA
Guiding for 14-17% of growth for coming years.
Promoter stake is more than 75%, so future QIP window's can be good opportunities.
Recommeded investing pattern - Staggered, SIP over next 2 quarters.
Downside - 8%, Upside -22% (Bull case - 35%)
Cup and Handle Break OutGood Techno funda Entry
A breakout with good volume and ready for long
Target :- 1255
Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN) at ₹316.45**Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN) at ₹316.45: Premium Play or Future Powerhouse?**
Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN) trades at ₹316.45, a massive entity with over ₹2.01 lakh Cr market cap, backed by the Reliance ecosystem. The question for traders and investors: Is its significant premium justified?
**Key Insights:**
* **Strong Backing & Shareholding:** Promoters hold 47.12%, with healthy institutional presence (DIIs 14.78%, FIIs 12.30%). This indicates significant confidence from core stakeholders.
* **Financials: Growth & Investment-Centric:** Sales saw a decent 10% growth (Mar'25 vs Mar'24), with Operating Profit jumping 27% to ₹1,977 Cr. OPM remains high at 76%. However, 2024 cash flow from operations was negative, heavily reliant on investing activities, suggesting its current model is more investment/holding company-like.
* **Staggering Valuation:** JIOFIN's P/E of 124.80 dwarfs peers like Bajaj Finance (P/E 36.10) and SBI Cards (P/E 44.50). This isn't about current earnings; it's a massive bet on future disruption.
* **Price Action & Volatility:** Despite its pedigree, JIOFIN's 1-year return is -5.45%, and it shows significant monthly volatility. This reflects the market's ongoing price discovery for a stock valued heavily on future potential.
**The Black Belt Take:**
JIOFIN is a high-conviction, high-valuation play. It's a bet on Reliance's ability to revolutionize India's financial sector.
* **For Traders:** Expect continued volatility. Short-term opportunities exist, but precise risk management is non-negotiable given the valuation sensitivity.
* **For Investors:** This is a long-term "future growth" story. Consider accumulating on significant dips if you believe in its disruptive potential. For the conservative, waiting for more established operational cash flows and a more reasonable valuation might be prudent.
Is the "Jio Factor" enough to justify this premium, or should investors wait for the fundamentals to catch up?
---
**Disclaimer:** This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BANKNIFTY 1D Timeframe Key Data (as of early afternoon):
Current Price: ~57,080
Opening Price: 57,316
Day’s High: 57,316
Day’s Low: 56,851
Previous Close: 57,210
Net Change: –128 points (around –0.22%)
Intraday Price Action Summary
Bearish Start: Opened near the high and immediately faced selling pressure, especially in major private banks.
Dip to Support: Price dropped to 56,851, testing key intraday support.
Mild Recovery Attempt: Found some buying interest near the support but still trading below the day’s open.
📊 Technical Levels – 1D View
Level Type Value (Approximate)
Resistance 1 57,300
Resistance 2 57,600
Support 1 56,850
Support 2 56,500
Trend Bias Neutral to Bearish
RSI Level (Est.) 48–50 (sideways zone)
A break above 57,300 could resume bullish momentum.
A fall below 56,800 may extend the decline toward 56,500.
Why Bank Nifty Is Weak Today
Profit Booking: After recent gains, traders are squaring off long positions.
IT Sector Drag: Broader market weakness (led by IT) has spilled over into banking.
Global Cues: No strong global signals to support risk-on sentiment.
Mixed Bank Performance: While PSU banks like Canara Bank and PNB are showing strength, private banks such as Axis, ICICI, and Kotak are under pressure.
Intraday Trading Strategy
If you’re Bullish:
Look for a breakout above 57,300 for confirmation.
Targets could be 57,600 and 58,000 with a stop below 56,850.
If you’re Bearish:
Wait for a break below 56,800.
Downside targets may be 56,500 and 56,300.
Sideways Play: If the index continues to hold between 56,850–57,300, focus on range-bound scalping or wait for a breakout.
Conclusion
Bank Nifty is trading in a consolidation-to-weak zone today. The index is at a technical crossroads—holding above 56,850 keeps hopes for a bounce alive, while a fall below it could invite fresh selling. Eyes should be on private sector banks and broader market sentiment for the next directional cue.
Tata Steel: Bounce Back After Correction from ₹120 Ceiling🔍Technical Analysis
In June 2024, Tata Steel hit an all-time high of ₹185 but later corrected, bottoming near ₹120 in January 2025.
The stock has since formed a higher-high, higher-low structure and currently trades around ₹162.
If the pattern sustains, the next upside targets are:
🎯Target 1: ₹170
🎯Target 2 : ₹180
🎯Target 3: ₹190 (new all-time high)
Suggested stop-loss is near the recent swing low at ₹150. A drop below ₹120–₹125 (major demand zone) would invalidate the bullish thesis.
💰Q4 FY24 Financial Highlights (vs Q3 FY24 & Q4 FY23)
Total Income: ₹56,218 Cr (↑+5% QoQ vs ₹53,648 Cr; ↓–4% YoY vs ₹58,687 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹49,659 Cr (↑ 4.7% QoQ from ₹47,745 Cr; ↓ 4.7% YoY from ₹52,087 Cr)
Total Operating Profit: ₹6,559 Cr (↑+11% QoQ vs ₹5,903 Cr; ↓–1% vs ₹6,601 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹2,200 Cr (↑+32% QoQ vs ₹1,672 Cr; ↑+22% YoY vs ₹1,809 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹1,201 Cr (↑+298% QoQ vs ₹295 Cr; ↑+116% YoY vs ₹555 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹1.04 (↑+300% QoQ vs ₹0.26; ↑+112% YoY vs ₹0.49)
📌The sharp sequential and year-on-year rise in PAT reflects strong recovery driven by volume growth and cost-cutting.
📈Fundamental Highlights
Consolidated Q4 PAT surged 113% to ₹1,301 Cr, outperforming estimates (ET cites +113% YoY rise)
Revenue grew 5% sequentially to ₹56,218 Cr; raw material costs fell ~18%, reducing total expenses by ~4% YoY
EBITDA margin improved sequentially from ~11% to 12% with consolidated EBITDA at ₹6,762 Cr
Shareholder Return: A dividend of ₹3.60 per share was announced
Operational Efficiency: Higher sales in India (~21 Mt) due to capacity ramp-up, improved margins in Netherlands, and reduced UK losses
Debt Management: Net debt trimmed to ₹82,579 Cr, and ₹6,600 Cr in capex delivered cost benefits
🧭Outlook
Tata Steel’s Q4 results reflect earning resilience, operational efficiency, and strong cost control. Technically, it's trading within a constructive higher-high pattern. Confirmed support above ₹150 and maintaining above the swing zone boosts the probability of reaching the upside targets. A break below ₹120–₹125, however, could negate this bullish setup.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
