Fundamental Analysis
A rare formation of Inverted Cup patternAlas, what a cruel and tumultuous age for commerce! One observes with a heavy heart the turning of the great wheel of Fortune, which grinds the old and venerable with the same indifference it shows the new.
For now, fresh-faced contenders, chief among them the great House of Birla, have entered the field of commercial battle. A merciless price war, a most vulgar skirmish of shillings and pence, has been unleashed upon the market. The once-healthy margins, which have for so long fattened the ledgers of established firms, now wither and shrink, bled dry by the cold, unfeeling efficiency of new-fangled technologies.
And thus, it is a sorrowful spectacle to witness how a titan of its trade, the hitherto unshakeable and reputable firm of NSE:ASIANPAINT , is at last brought to its very knees. It is a capitulation not on one front, but on all; a humiliation felt in the corridors of political favour, in the grand theatre of its own industry, and indeed, throughout the sprawling, vital network of its distribution, which for so long has carried its lifeblood to the farthest corners of the land.
HDFCBANK – Bullish Potential Post Results, But OI Shows Bearish________________________________________________________________________________📈 HDFCBANK – Bullish Potential Post Results, But OI Shows Bearish Overhang
📅 Setup Date: 17.07.2025 | ⏱ Timeframe: Daily
📍 Strategy: Post-Earnings Reaction Play with Mixed Sentiment in Options
________________________________________________________________________________
🔍 Overall View
Spot Price: ₹1957.4
Trend: Mixed – Strong Q1 results (profit ↑12%, bonus/dividend declared), but price action weak
Volatility: High IVs — Calls ~23–25%, Puts ~29–32% → post-result event premium still elevated
Ideal Strategy Mix: Neutral-to-bullish spreads with defined risk or post-IV crush contrarian longs
________________________________________________________________________________
1️⃣ Bullish Trade (Contrarian Setup with Fundamental Trigger)
Best CE: Buy 1980 CE @ ₹24.2
Why:
• Strong earnings + corporate action (bonus/dividend) → triggers potential sentiment reversal
• CE 1980 saw Short Build-Up (+144% OI), premium ↓25% → ideal for short-covering setup
• Delta ~0.41 with high IV (~24.3%) → moderate leverage & gamma in case of price breakout
• Use only if price breaks and sustains above ₹1975 with strong candle + volume
________________________________________________________________________________
2️⃣ Bearish Trade (Trend Following)
Best PE: Sell 1900 PE @ ₹16.65
Why:
• PE 1900 saw massive Long Build-Up (+70%) but IV surged → may now face decay pressure
• Selling this deep OTM PE gives ~₹57 buffer from spot (≈3% downside cushion)
• Post-results, downside may be limited → good candidate to play post-IV crush
• Spot stability around 1950–1960 invalidates aggressive downside
________________________________________________________________________________
3️⃣ Strategy Trade (Defined Risk Based on Mixed Setup)
Strategy: Bull Call Spread → Buy 1980 CE / Sell 2020 CE
→ ₹24.2 / ₹10.7
Net Debit: ₹13.50
Max Profit: ₹40 (spread width) – ₹13.5 = ₹26.5
Max Loss: ₹13.50
Risk:Reward: ≈ 1 : 1.96 ✅
Lot Size: 550
Total Risk: ₹7,425
Max Profit: ₹14,575
📊 Breakeven Point: ₹1993.5
📉 Reversal Exit Level: Exit if Spot < ₹1940 (invalidates breakout + earnings move fade)
________________________________________________________________________________
Why:
• Bullish news (Q1 beat, bonus/dividend) could trigger CE short covering if price moves above 1980
• Limited risk strategy — works well if post-result rally is moderate
• High IVs favour spread over naked options (caps loss from premium crush)
• CE OI from 1960–2060 mostly short → if momentum picks up, rally could be fast
________________________________________________________________________________
📘 My Trading Setup Rules
Avoid Gap Plays
→ Check pre-open price action to avoid trades influenced by gap-ups/gap-downs.
Breakout Entry Only
→ Enter trades only if price breaks previous day’s High (for bullish trades) or Low (for bearish trades).
Watch Volume for Confirmation
→ Monitor volume closely. No volume = No trade.
Enter on Strong Candle + Volume
→ Execute the trade only if a strong candle appears with increasing volume in the direction of the trade.
Defined Risk:Reward Only
→ Take trades only if R:R is favourable (ideally ≥ 1:2).
Premium Disclaimer
→ Option premiums shown are based on EOD prices — real-time premiums may vary during execution.
Time Frame Preference
→ Trade with your preferred time frame — this strategy works across intraday or positional setups.
________________________________________________________________________________
⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read):
• These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
• I am not a SEBI-registered advisor.
• The information provided here is based on personal market observation.
• No buy/sell recommendations are being made.
• Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
• Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post.
________________________________________________________________________________
Sensex 1D Timeframe✅ Current Market Status:
Closing Price: ₹82,452.00
Change: –148.32 points
Percentage Change: –0.18%
Day’s Range: ₹82,300.70 – ₹82,892.30
52-Week Range: ₹65,302.20 – ₹83,822.00
🔍 Key Technical Levels:
📌 Support Zones:
Support 1: ₹82,200 – minor trendline support
Support 2: ₹81,800 – recent bounce zone
Support 3: ₹81,000 – strong institutional buying level
📌 Resistance Zones:
Resistance 1: ₹82,900 – intraday high rejected
Resistance 2: ₹83,400 – multi-session top
Resistance 3: ₹83,800 – all-time high zone
🕯️ Candlestick Pattern:
Candle Type: Bearish body with upper wick
Formation: Reversal candle after a small bounce
Implication: Supply seen near highs; indicates hesitation in buying
📈 Indicator Status (1D Timeframe):
Indicator Value & Signal
RSI (14) ~45 – Neutral but slipping downward
MACD Bearish crossover – sellers gaining control
20 EMA ~₹82,780 – Price below this level (short-term bearish)
50 EMA ~₹82,000 – May act as dynamic support soon
📊 Price Structure Summary:
Sensex is in a tight range between ₹81,800 and ₹83,400.
The price rejected from ₹82,900, showing sellers are active.
If ₹82,200 breaks, we might see movement toward ₹81,800 and ₹81,000.
A bullish breakout will only occur above ₹83,400 with strong volume.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Institutional View:
Volatility: Moderate — no extreme panic or euphoria
Volume: Average — no big accumulation seen
Smart Money Activity: Likely waiting near breakout levels or lower discount zones (₹81,000)
🔚 Summary:
🔴 Short-Term Bias: Slightly Bearish
🟡 Key Range: ₹81,800 – ₹83,400
✅ Buyers' Entry Point: Above ₹83,400
⚠️ Sellers' Trigger: Below ₹82,200 or ₹81,800 for more downside
Banknifty 1D Timeframe✅ Current Market Status:
Closing Price: ₹56,283.00
Change: –545.80 points
Percentage Change: –0.96%
Day’s Range: ₹56,204.85 – ₹56,705.15
52-Week Range: ₹47,702.90 – ₹57,628.40
🔍 Key Technical Levels:
📌 Support Levels:
Support 1: ₹56,000 – Price is hovering close to this level
Support 2: ₹55,800 – Previous low zone
Support 3: ₹55,200 – Strong buying area from last month
📌 Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: ₹56,700 – Intraday rejection zone
Resistance 2: ₹57,100 – Swing high from earlier this week
Resistance 3: ₹57,600 – 52-week high
🕯️ Candlestick Analysis:
Candle Type: Big bearish candle with upper wick
Pattern: Bearish continuation — sellers are active
Implication: If price stays below ₹56,200, further downside possible
📈 Indicator Overview:
Indicator Signal
RSI (14) ~48 – Neutral zone, slightly bearish
MACD Bearish crossover – Downward momentum
20-Day EMA ~₹56,500 – Price below this, showing short-term weakness
50-Day EMA ~₹55,600 – Could act as support
📊 Market Sentiment:
Volatility: High intraday swings observed
Volume: Slightly above average – confirms strong seller presence
Institutional Action: Likely booking profits at higher levels
🔚 Summary & Outlook:
🔴 Short-Term Bias: Bearish
🟡 Watch Levels: ₹56,000 support and ₹56,700 resistance
✅ For Buyers: Wait for a strong close above ₹56,700
⚠️ For Sellers: Breakdown below ₹56,000 could lead to ₹55,200
Learn Institutional Trading Part-6🧠 Who Are the Institutions?
Institutions include:
Hedge Funds
Mutual Funds
Investment Banks
Insurance Companies
Proprietary Trading Firms
They control billions in capital and cannot enter or exit the market like a small trader. Instead, they engineer price movements through smart accumulation, fakeouts, and liquidity manipulation to fill their orders efficiently.
Their goals are not to chase price, but to control it.
🔍 How Do Institutions Trade?
Institutions follow a logical and systematic approach:
Accumulate positions slowly in sideways or quiet markets.
Manipulate price to trap retail traders.
Trigger Liquidity Events (stop-loss hunting, fake breakouts).
Expand price in the true direction.
Distribute their position near highs/lows.
Reverse or Hedge their position when the market shifts.
Let’s go deeper into how to mirror these actions.
📊 Key Concepts to Trade Like Institutions
1. Market Structure Mastery
Institutions move in phases:
Accumulation: Range-bound movement where they quietly build long/short positions.
Manipulation (Fake Moves): Price breaks out and reverses — trapping retail traders.
Expansion: The real move begins after stop-losses are triggered.
Distribution: Institutions slowly exit positions while retail traders enter.
When you trade like institutions, you identify where the market is in these phases and act accordingly.
2. Liquidity Zones
Institutions need liquidity to execute big orders — they look for areas where lots of retail traders place stop-losses or entries.
They often target:
Swing highs/lows
Trendline breaks
Support/resistance levels
Breakout zones
You’ll notice price spikes into these zones, hits stops, and then reverses — this is smart money at work.
🔑 Tip: Don’t trade breakouts blindly — ask “who’s being trapped here?”
3. Order Blocks & Imbalances
An Order Block is the last bullish or bearish candle before a sharp move — representing institutional entry.
Price often returns to these zones to:
Fill remaining orders
Test liquidity
Offer re-entry for institutions
Similarly, Imbalances (Fair Value Gaps) are areas where price moved too quickly, creating a “gap” in buying/selling. These are likely targets for future reversals or pullbacks.
These zones give high probability entries when used with structure and confirmation.
4. Inducement & Manipulation
Before a big move, institutions often induce retail traders into taking the wrong position.
Examples:
False breakout above resistance (induces longs)
Sharp move below support (induces shorts)
Spike in volume, fake news-driven moves
These actions create liquidity that institutions need to enter their real positions. As a smart trader, your job is to recognize the trap and take the opposite side.
5. Risk Management Like a Pro
Institutions never bet the house. Their risk practices include:
Fixed percentage risk per trade (e.g., 0.5%–2%)
Diversified entries
Portfolio hedging (e.g., buying puts, selling covered calls)
Sticking to the strategy, not emotions
To trade like institutions:
Always calculate your risk-reward
Avoid overleveraging
Accept that not every trade wins, but your edge wins over time
6. Use of Data, Not Indicators
Institutions don’t trade off MACD or RSI. They use:
Price Action
Volume
Order Flow
Open Interest
Economic News & Macro Flow
This doesn’t mean you can’t use indicators — but use them as confirmation, not decision-makers. Price is the main truth.
G G Automotive Gears Ltd One-Page Equity ResearchInvestment Thesis – BUY | Target Price ₹300 | Upside ~24%
India’s only listed pure-play traction–gear specialist with 50-year pedigree and >500 OE customers
Rail & Metro orders at record high; Indian Railways raising locomotive build plan by 27% for FY26, driving multi-year volume visibility
Successful diversification into wind-energy, mining & industrial forgings lowers cyclicality and lifts blended margins
Balance-sheet repair complete; net-debt / equity down to 0.53× vs 1.52× in FY23
Snapshot (Standalone)
CommentRevenue (₹ Cr)95.377.336%
EBITDA Margin12.7%10.0%
PAT (₹ Cr)4.431.9497%
EPS (₹)5.322.4544%
ROCE14.9%8.2%
P/E (TTM)26.5×
Market Cap₹ 241 C
Valuation & Target
We apply 32× FY26E EPS (₹9.4) – a 30% discount to peer Elecon (45×) to reflect smaller scale but superior growth trajectory.
Derived Target Price ₹300 (prior ₹241 close), implying 24% upside plus optionality from export traction gears.
Key Catalysts
Indian Railways 100% electrification → higher demand for reduction gearboxes
Metro build-out (20+ cities) – first export order executed FY24 proves capability
Unit-III & IV capacity added FY24 (+30k sq ft) unlocks 35% volume expansion without major capex
Potential government PLI scheme for rail components may grant 6% incentive on sales (not in model).
Risks to Thesis
Lumpy order inflow from Railways could stretch working capital
Alloy-steel price spikes may compress gross margin; 65% raw-material cost is steel
Customer concentration: top-three PSU units >55% of revenue
Small free float → liquidity risk in sharp market Initiate BUY with ₹300 target; accumulate on dips toward ₹220. Recommend watch on quarterly order-book disclosures for traction confirmation.
Godrej Agrovet LtdDate 20.07.2025
Godrej Agrovet
Timeframe : Weekly
Technical Remarks :
1 Currently under pole & flag pattern
2 Trade long on breakout of flag
3 Once cross wave 3 high, conformation of wave will also join
4 Previous double top, now acting as major swing support. Keep that as swing stoploss as well
Company's Business overview :
1) Animal Feed Business (47% in H1 FY25)
2) Dairy (17% in H1 FY25)
3) Vegetable Oil (14% in H1 FY25) - Market share of 30%
4) Crop Protection (13% in H1 FY25)
5) Poultry & Processed Foods Business and Others (9% in H1 FY25)
Debt :
The company’s debt increased from Rs. 1400 Cr as of FY24 to 1923 Cr as of Sep 2024.
Valuations :
ROCE = 16.6%
ROE = 16.6%
PE = 37.9
Book Value = 6.45
OPM = 7%
Regards,
Ankur
HDFCAMC | Potential pullback trade at the DZ
STOCK TREND - BULLISH
MULTI TF ANALYSIS
==================
MONTHLY - Strong Uptrend
WEEKLY - Recent BoS breakout after consolidation
DAILY - NA
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
===================
Stock Price is trading above SMAs
RSI >
Support/Resistance Zone -
Demand Zone -
Observation - Recent BoS breakout has been confirmed along with RSI and Volume confirmation on WEEKLY chart.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
======================
Compounded Sales Growth -
Compounded Profit Growth -
Stock Price CAGR -
Return on Equity -
Note: The stock is currently fairly valued as Stock PE(29.05) > Industry PE(19.66).
POTENTIAL TRADE PLAN
=============
ENTRY -
SL -
TARGET -
RRR -
Disclaimer: This chart study is for educational purpose only. Please don't consider this as an advice and kindly trade at your own risk.
S Chand & Company Ltd. ---- Deep Analysis (On Subscriber's Demand)
S Chand & Company Ltd. ----Deep Analysis (Weekly & Daily Outlook) + Fundamental Outlook
===========================================================
1. Technical Outlook---------
This analysis is made on Higher Time frame Combined (Weekly & Daily)
I have used Weekly Time Frame chart for showing analysis (I will update Daily chart on Note.)
My Observation ----
1. Market Structure Shift (MSS) --
--Clear Shift from bearish to bullish around late 2020, with break of sturcuture (BOS)
and formation of idm (Inducement)
-- there we saw a trendline liquidity sweep and Institutional BUying Zone near 148-160 levels.
2. Current Price Acttion ---
-- Price currently reacting around 209-210 as former resistance and now becoming potential support.
-- Price has entered previou supply zone, targeting for High Probability POi zone near 260-300 levels.
3. Long Term Institutional Accumulation Zone --
-- Accumulation range and Institutional buy Zone are identified (you can check, i have marked in bold grey.)
-- The Bullish FVG(Fair Value Gap) and Order Blocks zone are respected buy price which means it follows Smart Money.
Short Term Bias (3-4 weeks ) ---- Bullish Outlook
Entry ZOne -- CUrrent Price zone around 210 can act as a base for short term long.
Immediate Target -- 270-280 Levels (A Minor Supply ZOne)
Pullback Possibility -- If market needs liquidity then it may test back towards 200-205 zone (Demand Flip Zone)
SL Zone -- If price breaks below 195-200 on strong volume then it voids the Bullish move for short run.
Mid term Bias (1-3 Months) --- Same Bullish Outlook
Price is gearing up to revisit the High Probability POI around 300-320 levels (Marked in Bold)
Weekly Sturcture is clean and following --
Accumulation >> Expansion >> Pullback >> Re-accumulation >>> Expansion
For Entry module --- Always follow lower time frame and check the Structure shift and displacement for Entry purpose.
IMP --- I will also share (on Note) Daily Time Frame chart and Lower Time Frame chart for Entry module Education purpose. Just Check that also on time when price reaches the demand zone marked in bold.
======================================================================
2. Fundamental Outlook ----------- (Source - Screener)
-- Company is engaged in publishing educational books with products ranging from schools books
, higher academic books, competition and reference books etc.
-- S chand & company is on 2nd position according to Market Cap in its peers and key competitor is Navneet Education.
-- Company has a diverse portfolio with over 11000 titles and has sold over 50 million books in past year.
-- Latest News on S chand reports Highest 5-year revenues.
---Compounded Sales Growth
10 Years: 4%
5 Years: 11%
3 Years: 14%
TTM: 9%
---Return on Equity
10 Years: 3%
5 Years: 4%
3 Years: 5%
Last Year: 6%
FY25 Projections ---
1. The Company Expects their Operating Revenues to grow in double digits.
2. EBITDA margin band upgraded to 17%-19% (up from 16%-18% in the last year).
3. Company aims to remain net debt-free for at least three quarters during FY25.
(Source -- Screener website for Fundamental information)
==========================================================================
(Traders and Analysts or Anyone, Your views or observations and comments are most welcome.)
Disclaimer -- This analysis is made for Educational purpose only. Do not consider it as any Investment idea. Consult your financial advisor before any investments.
Investment Trading Setup - Growth & Wealth✅ Investment Trading Setup – “GARP + RSI” Model
🧠 Step 1: Fundamental Filter (GARP - Growth at Reasonable Price):-
Use screeners or research reports to filter stocks with:
• Revenue Growth: > 12% CAGR (3–5 yrs)
• PAT Growth: > 15% CAGR (3–5 yrs)
• ROCE: > 15%
• Debt/Equity: < 0.5 (or < 1 for capital-intensive sectors)
• PEG Ratio: < 1.5 (Growth at a Reasonable Price)
• Institutional Holding: Rising trend over last 2–3 quarters
✅ Example sectors: Specialty Chemicals, Private Banks, IT Product, Pharma APIs, Auto Ancillaries.
I strongly advise you all to go for most mid cap and some small cap segments as major growth is expected from this 2 verticals.
📈 Step 2: Technical Entry (Monthly + Weekly RSI Confirmation)
Once fundamentals are strong, check charts:
On Monthly chart:
• RSI(14) > 60 or crossing above 60
• Price breaking out of multi-month resistance or cup & handle/base
On Weekly chart:
• RSI(14) > 55 and trending higher
• Volume > 20-week average during breakout week
🔁 Optional Add-On: Use 200 DMA and 50 DMA Golden Cross for extra confirmation.
🎯 Entry & Risk Management
• Buy Zone: After breakout on weekly chart with confirmation of RSI
• Stop Loss: Below recent swing low (weekly or monthly)
• Pyramid/Add: On every 15–20% dip if fundamentals remain intact
🏁 Exit Rules
• Major fundamental deterioration (falling ROCE, rising debt)
• Technical breakdown below 200 DMA with heavy volume
• Stock becomes significantly overvalued (e.g. P/E > 3x sector average + RSI > 80)
🧾 Example Stocks That May Fit This Model (as of mid-2025)
✅ Mid Cap Growth Stocks (₹10,000 Cr to ₹50,000 Cr Market Cap)
Suprajit EngineeringAuto AncillariesHigh ROCE, consistent profit growth, global exportsKPI Green EnergyRenewable EnergyStrong revenue CAGR, solar EPC + IPP modelKEI IndustriesCables/WiresScalable, infra theme, strong profit marginsSona BLW PrecisionEV & Auto TechEV-ready, global OEM exposureJ.B. ChemicalsPharmaConsistent earnings, margin expansion, clean balance sheetNarayana HrudayalayaHospitals/HealthcareAsset-light model, expanding RoCE, high promoter skinSansera EngineeringAuto EngineeringDiversified clientele, improving marginsPolycab IndiaWires & CablesStrong infra push, leader in B2C wire segmentTriveni TurbineEngineering/Clean TechHigh margin niche business, export growtheMudhra Ltd.IT/Digital SignatureFast growth, unique niche (cybersecurity theme)
🚀 Small Cap Growth Stocks (< ₹10,000 Cr Market Cap)
Ksolves IndiaIT Services/NicheDebt-free, high RoE, software exportsNGL Fine ChemPharma APIsHigh margins, good growth visibilityGensol EngineeringSolar EPCEV + Solar + Infra theme, fast-growingShivalik BimetalSpecialty AlloysHigh-tech materials, strong RoEHLE GlascoatSpecialty Chem/EquipLeader in glass-lined equipment, capex doneIndia PesticidesAgrochemClean books, exports-led growthGNA AxlesAuto ComponentsPickup in CV/Tractor cycle, strong balance sheetLa Opala RGConsumer DurablesHigh margins, niche player in opalwareDynacons SystemsIT Infra ServicesNiche contracts, high profitabilityZen TechnologiesDefence TechDefence theme, order book visibility
📊 Suggested Metrics You Can Track:
• Revenue CAGR (3Y): >15%
• PAT CAGR (3Y): >20%
• ROCE: >18%
• D/E Ratio: <0.5
• Promoter Holding: >50% (or rising trend)
• Cash Flows: Positive from operations
Note - I have provided you all with my best 4 setups used by big firm and I can assure you they are working for us for the past 18 years.
Check my post in the profile -
Setup provided were:-
Positional Trading Setup
Swing Trading Setup
Stock Options Buying Setup
And Investment Trading Setup above.
I wish you all the best and am sure and confident that you will reflect and ponder on how simple techniques work.
At Last, KISS - Keep it Simple and Systematic.
Happy Trading!
Faraaz T
Sr. Ex. Financial and Equity Analyst
Stockholm Securities
Liquidity Concepts & Smart Money Trading💧 What is Liquidity in the Stock Market?
In simple terms, liquidity means how easily you can buy or sell a stock (or any asset) without affecting its price too much.
📌 Imagine This:
You're at a crowded market and want to sell 10 bags of rice. If there are many buyers, you’ll sell quickly at your price. That’s high liquidity.
But if only 1 buyer is there, you’ll need to lower the price—or wait. That’s low liquidity.
✅ High Liquidity Stocks:
Easy to enter and exit
Tight bid-ask spread
High volume and interest
Examples: Reliance, HDFC Bank, TCS, Infosys
🚫 Low Liquidity Stocks:
Wide spread
May not execute large orders fast
Often in smallcap or SME segments
Prone to manipulation
So, as a trader or investor, liquidity matters because it affects:
Speed of your trades
Slippage (difference between expected and executed price)
Risk of getting trapped in illiquid counters
🧠 Who is “Smart Money”?
“Smart Money” refers to the big, institutional players who move the market silently.
🧱 Types of Smart Money:
FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors)
DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors)
Mutual Funds, Pension Funds
Hedge Funds
Prop Desks (Proprietary traders of large brokers or banks)
These players do not trade like retail traders. They have:
Huge capital
Access to better research
Advanced tools and algorithms
Patience to accumulate or distribute over days/weeks
The power to create or absorb liquidity
They don’t chase stocks. They build positions strategically.
🎯 The Relationship Between Liquidity & Smart Money
This is where it gets interesting.
Smart Money doesn’t want you to know what they’re doing. So they operate in stealth mode, using liquidity zones to enter/exit.
Let’s break this down in real terms.
💡 Real Example: How Smart Money Uses Liquidity
Scenario: Let’s say a mutual fund wants to buy ₹500 crore worth of a midcap stock.
If they suddenly place a large buy order, the price will shoot up.
So what do they do?
They wait for panic selling, like during news, results, or false breakdowns.
They create liquidity pools—zones where many stop-losses are triggered.
Retail traders sell in panic, creating supply.
Smart money absorbs quietly.
This is called accumulation.
Similarly, when they want to sell, they:
Push price up with breakout candles
Attract retail buyers chasing the move
Slowly distribute their holdings
Leave small players trapped at the top
🔄 Concepts You Must Know
1. Accumulation Zone
Where smart money buys silently
Flat or range-bound price action
Volume slowly rising
No major breakout yet
2. Distribution Zone
Where smart money sells quietly
Price looks strong, but momentum slows
Volumes stay high
Sudden rejections from resistance
3. Liquidity Grab / Stop Hunt
A deliberate move to trigger stop-losses and create liquidity
Often seen before real trend begins
Can be traps for retail traders
Example: Price breaks below support, then sharply reverses
📊 How to Track Liquidity & Smart Money Moves
Here are tools and techniques used by traders:
📌 1. Volume Profile
Shows where most trading has happened
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Liquidity zones
Low Volume Nodes (LVN): Price moves quickly
Watch for consolidation near HVNs—could be accumulation/distribution
📌 2. Order Book / Market Depth
For intraday traders
Shows how many buy/sell orders exist at various levels
Spikes in orders may signal liquidity traps or fake pressure
📌 3. Open Interest (OI) in Options
Rising OI + flat price = buildup
Long unwinding or short covering signals smart money behavior
📌 4. FII/DII Data
Track daily net buy/sell figures
Sectoral trends from mutual fund holdings
FII selling = market weakness, especially in large caps
📌 5. Wyckoff Method (Optional but powerful)
Focuses on market cycles
Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown
Helps understand the intent behind price action
🔥 Common Smart Money Setups
✅ 1. False Breakout Trap
Price breaks above resistance
Retail traders enter long
Smart money sells into strength
Price reverses
How to Spot:
Check volume
See if candle closes above or within resistance
Confirm with next bar’s reaction
✅ 2. Stop-Loss Hunting
Price dips below support
Retail SLs get hit
Price reverses sharply with strong volume
How to Spot:
Sudden wick below major swing low
Sharp V-shaped recovery
Volume spike + reversal candle
✅ 3. Liquidity Sweep Before Rally
Sideways phase ends with a big red candle
Then reversal and trend begins
This is smart money loading positions
🛠️ How to Use This in Trading (With Practical Tips)
✅ For Swing Traders:
Identify consolidation zones with rising volume
Wait for breakout or breakdown with volume
Add volume profile to spot high-activity zones
Check if OI is building around a strike in options
✅ For Intraday Traders:
Track OI buildup + price action around round numbers
Use Market Profile or VWAP to understand liquidity zones
Watch for traps near open or just before close
✅ For Investors:
Watch mutual fund buying sectors
Use MF/ETF monthly reports for accumulation patterns
Avoid chasing rallies—enter during base formation
✅ Final Thoughts
Most retail traders lose money not because their analysis is wrong—but because they don’t understand the rules smart money plays by.
In 2025’s market, where FIIs, algorithms, and institutions dominate, understanding liquidity and smart money behavior is not optional—it’s essential.
You don’t need millions to trade like smart money. You just need the right mindset, tools, and the patience to wait for clean setups.
📌 Remember: “Volume reveals the truth. Price tells the story. Liquidity is the language smart money speaks.
Syngene International Price Action## Current Price and Trend Overview
- The stock is currently trading near ₹657, having pulled back considerably from its 52-week high close to ₹961, but still above the 52-week low around ₹600.
- Price movement has been mixed, with recent gains of about 2% over the last week but a decline of nearly 10% in the past three months. Over six months, the stock is down close to 20%. The longer-term gain (three-year basis) is about 5%.
- The stock remains within a broad horizontal range, with prices fluctuating between about ₹600 and ₹735 in recent months. Price volatility is moderate.
## Technical and Market Structure
- A short-term bounce occurred from a May low, but overall momentum remains sideways. Both short- and long-term moving averages are generally positive, offering some technical support.
- Key support levels are seen at ₹645–₹650, with stronger support near ₹600. Immediate resistance is around ₹670–₹680; a break above could indicate further upward momentum.
## Valuation and Financial Perspective
- The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is in the mid-50s, relatively high for the sector, signaling a premium valuation.
- Price-to-book (P/B) value is above 5, suggesting the company trades at more than five times its book value.
- Market capitalization is about ₹26,500 crore, making Syngene a significant but not leading player in its industry.
- Return on equity is modest at around 12%, and dividend payout remains low relative to profits.
## Recent Performance Factors
- Promoter holding is stable, which is generally regarded as a sign of confidence.
- The latest quarterly earnings showed a minor upside surprise, with earnings per share coming slightly above market expectations.
- Revenue is expected to show a steady uptrend in the coming quarters, but overall growth rates have moderated compared to earlier years.
## Outlook and Sentiment
- The prevailing sentiment is cautious, with the stock recently upgraded by some analysts from “Hold” to “Buy Candidate,” based largely on improved moving average signals and a rare technical “Golden Star” event that often precedes positive moves.
- Option chain analysis indicates a wide range, reflecting indecision among market participants.
- Analysts’ 12-month price targets generally center around ₹712, with a bullish scenario up to ₹825 and a downside floor near ₹570.
## Summary
- Syngene International’s share price is consolidating with no clear breakout, but several technical and fundamental factors are turning slightly positive.
- Upside potential exists if key resistance levels are crossed, while failure to hold current support could lead to further downside.
- The stock remains in focus for longer-term investors looking for stable growth in the contract research and biopharma segment, though near-term trading is likely to remain range-bound unless a new catalyst emerges.
Support and ResistenceWhat is Support?
Support refers to a price level where a downtrend tends to pause or reverse due to increased buying interest. When price drops to a support level, traders and investors see it as a “discounted” price, which attracts buying activity. This buying demand causes the downtrend to slow down or reverse.
Key Points About Support:
It acts as a floor in the market.
Support levels are created when buyers are willing to purchase at a certain price level.
The more times price touches a support level and bounces back, the stronger the support becomes.
Once broken, support can become resistance, meaning that if the price breaks below support, it may face difficulty moving back up past that level.
What is Resistance?
Resistance refers to a price level where an uptrend tends to pause or reverse due to increased selling pressure. When price rises to a resistance level, traders see it as an “expensive” price and tend to sell, causing the price to stall or drop.
Key Points About Resistance:
It acts as a ceiling in the market.
Resistance levels are formed when sellers dominate and prevent the price from moving higher.
The more times price touches resistance and fails to break through, the stronger the resistance is.
If price breaks above resistance, it can become support, known as a support-resistance flip.
Why Support and Resistance are Important
✅ Identifies High-Probability Trade Zones – Helps you spot where to enter and exit trades.
✅ Improves Risk Management – Lets you place stop-loss orders around logical areas.
✅ Confirms Market Direction – Breakouts and rejections from these zones signal potential trend continuations or reversals.
✅ Works Across All Timeframes – Support and resistance can be applied to intraday trading, swing trading, and long-term investing.
Types of Support and Resistance
🔹 Horizontal Levels
Flat, horizontal price areas where the market reverses multiple times. This is the simplest and most common form.
🔹 Dynamic Support and Resistance
Levels that change with price movement, usually identified using moving averages like the 50-day or 200-day MA.
🔹 Trendlines
Diagonal support and resistance lines that connect higher lows in an uptrend or lower highs in a downtrend.
🔹 Zones Instead of Exact Lines
Professional traders focus on zones, not exact price points, because the market often reacts within a range.
How Professionals Use Support and Resistance
Institutions use these levels to accumulate positions quietly.
Smart traders wait for confirmation (candlestick patterns, volume increase) before entering trades.
Breakouts of these levels often lead to big moves because many stop-loss orders are triggered, creating momentum.
False breakouts or liquidity grabs are used by big players to trap retail traders before reversing the market.
Final Thoughts
Understanding support and resistance is fundamental to becoming a successful trader. It helps you anticipate market behavior, manage risk, and trade with confidence. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, continuously refining your ability to identify and trade these key levels will improve your consistency and profitability.
Support and resistance are not just lines on a chart — they are the battle zones where market decisions are made. Master them, and you will master the market.
Support and Resistence Part-2✅ The True Meaning of Support and Resistance
At the core, support and resistance levels are psychological price areas where supply and demand dynamics shift. However, in institutional trading, these levels are engineered by large players to trigger retail reactions — such as false breakouts, stop hunts, and liquidity grabs.
Institutions use these levels to:
Accumulate large positions without moving the market.
Manipulate price to create breakout traps.
Trigger liquidity pools where retail stop-losses and pending orders are stacked.
✅ Types of Advanced Support and Resistance
1. Liquidity-Based Zones
Institutions seek liquidity to fill their large orders. They target zones where retail traders:
Place stop losses.
Have pending buy/sell orders.
Expect breakout continuations.
These zones are rarely clean horizontal lines but broader zones where price can spike in and quickly reverse.
2. Order Blocks
Order blocks are the last bullish or bearish candles before a significant price move caused by institutional orders. These are key institutional support/resistance levels where price often returns for mitigation or re-entry.
Bullish Order Block = Support Zone
Bearish Order Block = Resistance Zone
3. Breaker Blocks
When support breaks and flips to resistance (or vice versa), institutions often retest breaker blocks to add positions or induce liquidity.
4. Fibonacci Confluence Zones
Advanced traders use Fibonacci retracement and extension levels in combination with support and resistance zones to identify high-probability trade setups. Common levels like 61.8% and 78.6% often align with key order blocks.
5. Dynamic Support & Resistance (Moving Averages, VWAP)
Institutions monitor:
200 EMA/SMA on higher timeframes as dynamic resistance/support.
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) as an institutional support/resistance during intraday moves.
These dynamic levels often act as price magnets during trend days.
✅ Institutional Manipulation Around Support/Resistance
🔹 Liquidity Grabs (Fake Breakouts):
Price breaks a key level (support or resistance), triggers stops, grabs liquidity, and violently reverses.
Common in forex, indices, and crypto markets.
🔹 Stop Loss Hunting:
Institutions drive price into known stop zones to fill large orders cheaply, especially during low-volume sessions.
🔹 Re-Tests and Confirmations:
Professional traders wait for confirmation after breakouts.
A common method: Break – Retest – Continuation setup, especially around higher timeframe support/resistance.
✅ How to Trade Support and Resistance Like an Institution
Mark Zones, Not Lines: Use zones (20-50 pip zones in forex or 1-2% zones in stocks), not fixed lines.
Use Multi-Timeframe Confluence: Identify higher timeframe levels (Daily, Weekly) and trade based on lower timeframe confirmations (M15, M30, H1).
Wait for Confirmations: Avoid blind entries. Wait for:
Rejection Candles (Pin Bar, Engulfing, Doji)
Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) after grabbing liquidity.
Target Imbalance Zones: Combine support/resistance with fair value gaps (FVG) or imbalances where price is likely to revisit.
Track Volume Reaction: Volume spikes at support/resistance zones often indicate institutional activity.
✅ Pro Tips for Mastering Support and Resistance
Never chase price. Let the market come to your zones.
Higher timeframe levels = stronger reaction zones.
Watch for ‘fakeouts’ during news releases – institutions use volatility to create liquidity spikes.
Learn to recognize exhaustion (long wicks, low momentum) after liquidity grabs to confirm reversals.
Institutional levels often align with market sessions – London Open, New York Open tend to respect these zones more than Asian session.
✅ Final Thoughts
At an advanced level, support and resistance aren’t simple price levels — they are strategic zones used by institutions to trap uninformed traders. Once you start recognizing these patterns, you’ll stop reacting emotionally and start anticipating market behavior like a professional. You’ll know when to stay patient, when to avoid traps, and when to capitalize on market inefficiencies with high-probability, low-risk trades.
Trade Like Istitution Why Learn to Trade Like Institution?
Financial markets are not random. They are highly manipulated and structured systems, controlled by major financial entities. When you trade like institution, you stop guessing and start understanding:
Where the big players place their orders.
How liquidity zones work.
Why certain price levels are targeted before major moves.
How you can identify smart money footprints and follow the dominant trend.
This approach teaches you to trade strategically, patiently, and professionally — eliminating the emotional rollercoaster most traders experience.
What You Will Learn in “Trade Like Institution”
✅ Smart Money Trading Concepts
Understand how institutions manipulate markets, create liquidity, and trap retail traders. Learn the basics of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases.
✅ Market Structure and Order Flow
Read the market from an institutional perspective using pure price action and market structure analysis. Identify break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHoCH) signals that reveal when the market is about to move.
✅ Order Block Identification
Learn to locate order blocks, where institutions place their large orders. These zones are often the key areas where price reverses or explodes in a specific direction.
✅ Liquidity Zones and Stop-Loss Hunting
Discover how to identify liquidity pools, understand stop-loss hunting techniques, and position yourself for trades after liquidity grabs.
✅ Risk Management Like Institutions
Master the art of risk management, learning how big players manage risk efficiently to stay profitable long-term, even after losses.
✅ High-Probability Trade Setups
Get access to reliable entry techniques with precise stop-loss placement and optimal reward-to-risk setups that minimize risk and maximize returns.
✅ Live Market Application
Learn through real-world market examples, live sessions, and chart analysis to see how institutional concepts apply in active markets like forex, stocks, indices, and crypto.
Who Should Learn to Trade Like Institution?
This course is designed for:
📊 New traders who want to start the right way without falling into retail traps.
💡 Intermediate traders who have experience but struggle with consistency.
💼 Full-time or part-time traders who wish to level up their skills.
📈 Investors who want to actively manage and grow their wealth.
🎯 Ambitious traders who want to make trading a serious and professional income source.
Benefits of Trading Like Institution
✅ Stop being a victim of market manipulation and start trading with the market movers.
✅ Eliminate confusion, follow clean price action, and trade with confidence.
✅ Avoid low-probability trades by understanding where the real market action happens.
✅ Build strong discipline and follow a professional trading process.
✅ Achieve long-term profitability by managing risk like professionals.
✅ Become a confident, independent trader capable of thriving in any market condition.
Trading success comes from learning the truth behind market movements and following the professional path. This course will completely transform your approach to the markets. With Trade Like Institution, you’ll stop guessing, start predicting, and trade with an edge just like the top institutional traders do every single day
Learn Institutional TradingWhy Learn Institutional Trading?
The financial markets are not random; they are highly structured environments controlled by large financial players who leave visible footprints on the chart. Most retail traders don’t see these footprints and end up on the wrong side of the market. By learning institutional trading, you will finally understand:
Why the market moves the way it does.
How to spot liquidity traps and avoid stop-loss hunting.
Where smart money enters and exits trades.
How to trade with confidence instead of fear and guesswork.
This course focuses on the real mechanics of price movement, not on unreliable indicators or random trade signals.
What You Will Learn in Institutional Trading
✅ Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Learn how institutional traders accumulate and distribute orders, using liquidity to their advantage. Understand the true story behind price action.
✅ Liquidity and Order Blocks:
Master the art of identifying liquidity pools, order blocks, and market manipulation zones. Understand where smart money enters the market and how you can follow their lead.
✅ Market Structure Mastery:
Learn to read market structures with precision, identify internal and external structures, and capitalize on market shifts with high-probability trade setups.
✅ Entry and Exit Strategies:
Get access to professional-grade entry methods, including refined confirmation entries, break-of-structure (BOS) trades, and optimal risk-reward setups.
✅ Risk Management Techniques:
Understand how institutions manage risks and protect their capital. Implement strong risk management rules to protect your trading account from unnecessary losses.
✅ Live Market Sessions and Mentorship:
Participate in live market discussions, chart breakdowns, and Q&A sessions with expert traders who trade institutional concepts every day.
Who Can Learn Institutional Trading?
This course is suitable for:
📌 Beginners who want to start with professional strategies from day one.
📌 Intermediate traders who are tired of inconsistent results.
📌 Advanced traders who want to refine their understanding of market manipulation.
📌 Investors who wish to add active trading as an income source.
📌 Aspiring professionals who aim to make trading a serious career path.
Benefits of Learning Institutional Trading
✅ Trade with clarity and confidence, knowing you are on the side of smart money.
✅ Stop chasing trades and start trading with high-probability setups.
✅ Learn to avoid retail traps and false breakouts.
✅ Build a sustainable trading career with proper risk management and psychological discipline.
✅ Apply your skills to any market: stocks, forex, crypto, indices, or commodities.
✅ Experience real growth as a professional trader, thinking several steps ahead of the market.
Learn Institutional Trading is more than just a course — it’s a complete professional transformation. It equips you with the skills, mindset, and strategies to succeed in modern financial markets. Stop trading blindly and start trading with purpose, accuracy, and confidence.
Trading Master Class With ExpertsWhy Choose the Trading Master Class With Experts?
In the world of trading, there’s a fine line between success and failure. The financial markets are full of opportunities but also come with significant risks. The key difference between winning traders and losing traders is education, discipline, and strategy. This masterclass is not just about learning how to trade; it’s about developing a professional trading mindset, learning proven techniques, and practicing high-probability setups under the guidance of industry experts.
This is a result-oriented program designed to give you a complete transformation from a confused trader to a disciplined market participant.
Key Highlights of the Master Class
In-Depth Market Knowledge: Learn the complete fundamentals of financial markets, including market structure, how different asset classes work, and what drives market movements.
Technical Analysis Mastery: From candlestick patterns to advanced indicators, understand how to read charts like a pro. Learn key technical tools like moving averages, RSI, MACD, Fibonacci retracements, and more.
Professional Trading Strategies: Master multiple trading styles including day trading, swing trading, scalping, and positional trading. Get access to expert-verified strategies used by institutional traders.
Options and Derivatives Trading: Understand the power of options trading, futures contracts, hedging techniques, and options strategies like iron condor, spreads, straddles, and strangles.
Institutional Trading Insights: Discover how big players operate in the market. Learn about smart money concepts, liquidity traps, stop loss hunting, and how to trade in alignment with market movers.
Risk Management and Trading Psychology: Learn how to protect your capital using strict risk management rules. Understand the psychological side of trading and how to build emotional discipline for consistent success.
Live Trading Sessions: Participate in live market analysis and live trading sessions with experts who explain their trades in real-time, helping you understand their decision-making process.
Community and Mentorship: Join a supportive community of traders where you can share ideas, discuss setups, and receive continuous guidance from mentors.
Who Should Attend This Master Class?
This masterclass is suitable for:
Aspiring traders who are looking for a solid foundation to start their trading journey.
Intermediate traders who are struggling with consistency and need structured guidance.
Investors who want to learn active trading techniques to multiply their returns.
Working professionals who want to trade part-time with smart strategies.
Full-time traders who want to sharpen their skills and expand their market knowledge.
What You Will Achieve After This Master Class
✅ You will be able to independently analyze charts and identify profitable trading opportunities.
✅ You will develop professional risk management habits that protect you from heavy losses.
✅ You will gain the confidence to trade any market condition — bullish, bearish, or sideways.
✅ You will have clear strategies to trade with discipline, eliminating guesswork and emotional mistakes.
✅ You will build a trader’s mindset focused on growth, patience, and long-term profitability.
This is not just another trading course. It is a complete transformation program that helps you think, act, and succeed like a professional trader. Step into the world of high-probability trading and change your financial future with the Trading Master Class With Experts.
Psychology Is 80% of Trading Success But Most Traders Ignore ItPsychology Is 80% of Trading Success – But Most Traders Ignore It
“Have you ever entered a perfect trade… and still lost?”
Right direction.
Clear technical setup.
Trend confirmation was there.
Yet you closed early.
Or held a losing trade too long.
Or jumped back in out of revenge after a loss.
It wasn’t your system’s fault.
It was your psychology.
💡 Most traders don’t fail because of bad analysis – they fail because of poor emotional control
Let’s walk through some common real-life situations every trader has experienced at least once:
🎯 1. You closed your trade early – afraid the market might reverse
Case study:
A trader entered a long position on XAUUSD at a support zone (2360), aiming for TP at 2375.
But when price reached 2366, he closed out early – afraid to “lose profits.”
The market later hit his original TP perfectly.
➡️ This is classic loss aversion – the fear of losing what you’ve already gained.
🎯 2. You refused to cut a loss – hoping the price would come back
Case study:
A trader shorted EURUSD expecting a pullback, but price broke resistance and continued up.
Instead of cutting the loss, he widened his stop loss, holding onto hope.
The result? A bigger loss than planned.
➡️ This is denial – a refusal to accept you’re wrong, leading to emotional attachment to the trade.
🎯 3. You increased your position size after a winning streak
Case study:
After two strong wins, a trader feels confident and increases position size on the next trade…
Even though the setup isn’t as strong.
That trade ends in a loss – wiping out earlier profits.
➡️ This is overconfidence bias – a dangerous psychological state after wins.
📊 Technical skills only account for 20% – the remaining 80% is mastering yourself
You might:
Understand price structure
Use advanced indicators
Follow a solid trading system
But if you:
Break your stop loss rules
Scale up recklessly
Enter trades impulsively
Then your edge vanishes.
Success becomes inconsistent.
🧠 5 Practical Ways to Strengthen Your Trading Psychology
✅ Keep a trading journal – especially track your emotions
Ask: “Did I follow my plan? Or was I trading to ‘feel better’?”
✅ Never change SL or TP mid-trade
Stick to your original plan. Discipline builds consistency.
✅ Use demo accounts to train discipline, not to prove profitability
Treat each demo trade as if real money is at stake.
✅ Set mandatory “cool-off” periods after consecutive losses
For example: 2 losses = no trades for 24 hours.
✅ Practice waiting – patience is your most underrated tool
Pro traders often wait days for a valid setup. That’s not inactivity – that’s control.
🔁 Trading is not a search for the perfect system – it’s a journey of mastering your own mind
A strategy with only 55% win rate can still be highly profitable
…if paired with discipline, risk management, and emotional control.
But…
A system with 70% accuracy can still blow your account
…if your psychology breaks down under pressure.
🎯 Final Thoughts:
The financial markets reward those who can control themselves – not just those who analyze well.
You don’t need to be smarter than others.
You don’t need to master 10 indicators.
But you must be able to stay calm, act rationally, and follow your rules.
Knowledge lets you see the opportunity – but psychology determines if you survive it.
DOGE Long Swing Setup – Institutional Narrative Heating UpThe Dogecoin narrative is back in focus! Bit Origin ( NASDAQ:BTOG ) is raising $500M to build one of the world’s largest DOGE treasuries—becoming the first U.S.-listed company to treat CRYPTOCAP:DOGE as a core asset. With institutional interest rising, DOGE could see renewed momentum. Our last trade surged 50%—here’s the next entry:
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $0.20 – $0.21
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $0.23 – $0.24
o 🥈 $0.27 – $0.28
• Stop Loss: Daily close below $0.18
#crypto #DOGE #BTOG
Dell Technologies Inc (DELL) – Accelerating Toward AI LeadershipCompany Snapshot:
NYSE:DELL is transforming from a traditional hardware player into an AI-driven, high-margin solutions provider, underpinned by strategic GPU partnerships and a shift toward recurring software revenue.
Key Catalysts:
AI Data Center Momentum 🔌
Deep collaborations with NVIDIA and AMD enable Dell to deploy cutting-edge GPUs across its server portfolio—critical infrastructure for AI workloads and enterprise compute.
Recurring Revenue Growth 💼
Double-digit gains in software and services are reducing cyclicality, driving margin expansion, and making the business model more resilient and predictable.
Capital Return Strength 💰
Dell returned $1B+ to shareholders last quarter, including a 20% dividend increase, backed by $2.2B in free cash flow—demonstrating strong capital discipline and confidence.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Entry Zone: Above $108–$110
Upside Target: $175–$180, supported by Dell’s AI-enabled pivot, margin tailwinds, and shareholder-friendly capital strategy.
🧠 Dell’s AI infrastructure push and software-driven transformation position it as a top-tier tech compounder.
#Dell #DELL #AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #NVIDIA #AMD #TechStocks #RecurringRevenue #Dividends #Buybacks #GrowthStock #AIComputing






















