Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – 1D Timeframe✅ Closing Summary:
Closing Price: ~$119,138 USD
Change: +$836 (+0.7%)
Opening Price: ~$118,302
Intraday High: ~$120,714
Intraday Low: ~$117,715
Bitcoin continued to show resilience by holding above the crucial $118,000 support level, despite facing overhead resistance near its previous high. The price action reflects bullish consolidation following recent surges above $120,000.
🔍 Key Reasons Behind the Price Action:
Institutional Demand Strengthening:
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are witnessing rising inflows.
Hedge funds and family offices are seen increasing allocations, especially as digital assets gain legitimacy post-regulation discussions.
Regulatory Momentum:
U.S. Congress is pushing clearer frameworks around crypto taxation and stablecoins.
Global regulatory certainty (from EU & Japan) boosts confidence among investors and traders.
Weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
The DXY declined slightly, indirectly aiding BTC’s upward momentum.
Bitcoin remains a favored alternative store of value during fiat uncertainty.
Limited Miner Selling:
On-chain data shows a decline in miner distribution, meaning less sell-side pressure.
Miners seem optimistic about long-term prices and are holding reserves.
📈 Technical Outlook (Short-Term):
Support Zone: $117,500 to $118,000
Price found strong buyers in this range. It’s crucial that Bitcoin holds this level to maintain bullish structure.
Resistance Zone: $120,700 to $122,500
Previous highs around $122K serve as the next resistance. A daily candle close above this may trigger momentum buying.
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): ~62 (bullish but not overbought)
MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed
Volume: Moderate, but above 20-day average
📆 Recent Trend Performance:
1-Day Return: +0.7%
1-Week Return: +2.1%
1-Month Return: +12.8%
3-Month Return: +35.4%
YTD Return: +61.2%
Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional asset classes, showing strong long-term growth despite short-term volatility.
🧠 What Traders & Investors Should Know:
Short-Term Traders: Consider range trading between $118K–$122K. Breakout above $122K may signal fresh upside potential.
Swing Traders: Watch for bullish continuation patterns (bull flags or cup-and-handle). Enter long if price closes above $121.5K on high volume.
Long-Term Investors: Accumulation at current levels could be ideal before the next halving cycle and broader adoption via ETFs and institutions.
🛠️ Chart Behavior and Candlestick Analysis:
Candle Type: Bullish candle with long lower wick, indicating buying pressure near support.
Pattern: Minor flag formation with potential breakout above $121K on next daily move.
🧭 Macro-Level Catalysts to Watch:
U.S. Bitcoin ETF weekly flows (Friday updates)
Fed interest rate guidance (next FOMC meeting)
Crypto regulation developments in U.S., EU, and APAC
On-chain metrics: exchange inflow/outflow, whale accumulation
💬 Conclusion:
BTC/USD is showing solid structure in the 1D chart. With strong institutional demand, improving global regulation, and technical support holding, Bitcoin is in a healthy uptrend. The short-term outlook remains bullish as long as BTC holds above $118K. A breakout above $122K could fuel the next leg towards $125,000–$130,000.
Fundamental Analysis
Advance Option Trading✅ What is Advanced Options Trading?
At the advanced level, traders use option combinations, multi-leg strategies, and hedging techniques to:
Maximize profits
Minimize risks
Take advantage of market volatility and time decay (Theta)
You don’t just predict direction; you trade direction, volatility, and time decay together.
✅ Core Concepts in Advanced Options Trading
1. Greeks Mastery
Delta: Measures how much the option price moves with the underlying asset.
Gamma: Rate of change of Delta.
Theta: Time decay — how much the option loses value every day.
Vega: Sensitivity to volatility changes.
Rho: Impact of interest rate changes (used less by retail).
Understanding Greeks helps you manage profits and risks more precisely
3. Volatility Trading
Institutions trade implied volatility (IV), not just price direction. Advanced traders use tools like IV Rank and IV Percentile to:
Sell options when IV is high (premium rich)
Buy options when IV is low (cheap options)
4. Hedging Techniques
Use options to protect your portfolio from major losses.
Example: Holding stocks and buying Protective Puts to limit downside risk.
Example: Selling Covered Calls to generate monthly income on stock holdings.
✅ Benefits of Advanced Options Trading
💸 Profit in Any Market Condition (up, down, sideways)
⏳ Earn from Time Decay (Theta Decay)
🛡️ Control Risk with Defined Risk Strategies
🎯 Higher Probability of Consistent Returns
📉 Less Capital, More Leverage
✅ Who Should Learn Advanced Option Trading?
✅ Traders with basic options knowledge
✅ Investors wanting to hedge portfolios
✅ Intraday or positional traders
✅ Those seeking consistent monthly income
✅ Final Thoughts
Advanced Options Trading transforms you from a simple buyer/seller to a strategic trader who uses market forces smartly. You don’t chase trades — you set up calculated, high-probability positions and let the market work for you.
Sagility India Limited Trade Information
Traded Volume (Lakhs) 194.42
Traded Value (₹ Cr.) 87.90
Total Market Cap (₹ Cr.) 21,019.16
Free Float Market Cap (₹ Cr.) 6,857.12
Impact cost 0.87
% of Deliverable / Traded
Quantity 47.47 %
Applicable Margin Rate 17.77
Face Value 10
Price Information
52 Week High (30-Dec-2024) 56.40
52 Week Low (13-Nov-2024) 27.02
Upper Band 50.09
Lower Band 40.98
Price Band (%) 10
Daily Volatility 2.22
Annualised Volatility 42.41
Tick Size 0.01
Adjusted P/E 41.25
Symbol P/E 41.25
Index NIFTY 500
Basic Industry IT Enabled Service
Gold’s Next Move After False Headlines & Liquidity sweepXAUUSD 17/07 – MMF Insights: Gold’s Next Move After False Headlines & Liquidity Sweep
🧭 Market Sentiment: Macro Distractions Fuel Uncertainty
The gold market remains under pressure as conflicting geopolitical news and central bank rumors stir volatility. The week opened with rumors that Donald Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sending temporary fear across markets. While Trump later denied the claim, the damage was already done – sentiment remains fragile.
Other active drivers:
Israel’s airstrikes in Syria increase global tension.
EU proposes tariffs on US imports, adding trade friction.
BlackRock warns of delayed inflation pressure as tariffs begin impacting electronics & consumer goods.
💡 All these elements support gold’s potential role as a hedge, but technical signals suggest the market remains undecided.
🔍 MMF Technical Flow Outlook
According to MMF analysis, price structure is unfolding in line with expected liquidity sweeps and order block reactions:
Price rejected from key supply zones near 3,342 – 3,344 (OB + CP structure).
Current bounce around 3,330 – 3,320 signals possible accumulation.
If buyers hold above 3,310, we may see price test the upper OB/VPOC zones again.
Break below 3,310 opens the door toward the MMF liquidity trap zone at 3,296 – 3,294.
🎯 Trade Plan – Precision Entries
🟩 Buy Zone
Entry: 3,312 – 3,310
Stop Loss: 3,306
Take Profits:
→ 3,316 → 3,320 → 3,324 → 3,328 → 3,335 → 3,340 → 3,350
✅ This zone aligns with MMF liquidity retention and H1 continuation structure. Watch for bullish confirmation candles before entry.
🟥 Sell Zone
Entry: 3,362 – 3,364
Stop Loss: 3,368
Take Profits:
→ 3,358 → 3,354 → 3,350 → 3,345 → 3,340
⚠️ Ideal for short-term scalping or reversal confirmation setups. Rejection at VPOC or CP structure validates this zone.
⚠️ Key Notes for Indian Traders
Today’s sentiment is fragile and can shift fast with any unexpected statement from US Fed or geopolitical update.
Apply MMF structure in lower timeframes (M15/H1) for cleaner confirmation.
Avoid early entries. Wait for reaction signals near the marked zones.
💬 What Do You See Ahead?
Will MMF signals lead the market toward the deep FVG zone around 3,296?
Or are bulls getting ready to reclaim 3,360+ zones?
👇 Share your view and let’s trade smarter together with MMF precision.
Triangle formationThangamayil Jewellers – Glistening with Opportunity
The overall sentiment in the jewellery sector has turned positive, supported by strong fundamentals and global tailwinds.
Gold and silver prices are on a consistent uptrend, hitting new highs almost daily, driven by both safe-haven demand and global metal rallies.
Thangamayil Jewellers, a Tamil Nadu-based company, has established a strong presence among the middle class, with steady growth in both sales and revenue.
Technically, the stock shows a clear bullish triangle formation on the monthly chart, while also exhibiting low-price accumulation patterns on the daily timeframe.
This setup offers a compelling combination of fundamental strength and technical breakout potential, making it a stock to watch closely in the current metals rally.
Swing Trading - Pullback and Volume contraction setup - PROA pullback entry with volume contraction is a powerful setup used by swing traders and position traders to enter strong trends at low-risk points. Here's how you can identify and trade this setup:
✅ Concept:
• A pullback is a temporary decline in price within an established uptrend.
• Volume contraction during this pullback shows reduced selling pressure, indicating that the correction is healthy and likely to resume upward.
📊 Technical Setup:
1. Trend Filter
• Uptrend confirmation using:
• Monthly RSI > 60
• Weekly RSI > 60
• 50 EMA above 200 EMA on Daily chart (optional confirmation)
2. Price Action
• Stock is making higher highs and higher lows
• After a sharp rally, price pulls back 3–5 candles on the Daily chart
• Pullback should be orderly (no panic selling or wide candles)
3. Volume Contraction
• Volume decreases gradually during the pullback
• Look for lowest volume near the end of the pullback
• Indicates sellers are drying up and big players are not exiting
4. Entry Trigger
• Entry when price breaks above previous day's high with:
• Spike in volume on breakout
• Optional: bullish candlestick (Marubozu, Bullish Engulfing, or Hammer)
5. Stop Loss
• Just below the pullback low or
• Below the 10 EMA on daily chart
6. Target
• First target = previous swing high
• Trail SL using ATR or 20 EMA if trend extends
📘 Example:
Let’s say you’re watching Tata Motors:
• Monthly RSI = 68
• Weekly RSI = 65
• Daily chart: Stock rallied from ₹800 to ₹860, then pulls back to ₹840 with 3 red candles
• Volume during pullback: 12M → 10M → 7M → 5M
• On Day 4, price forms a bullish hammer and breaks ₹845 on higher volume
📈 Entry = ₹845
🛑 Stop Loss = ₹835
🎯 Target = ₹865+ (prior high), trail after that
🔍 Bonus Filters (Optional):
• Inside bar formation
• Fibonacci retracement (38.2%–50% zone)
• Near support from moving averages (20 EMA / 50 EMA)
Check my previous post in understanding full concept in detail. Support and follow for PRO level understanding. Share with as many retail traders as possible.
God Bless you All!
Faraaz T
Sr. Equity Research Analyst
Stockholm Securities - UK
Stovekraft can it resume it's uptrend?Stovekraft – Growth-Focused Kitchen Appliance Play
Stovekraft is an aggressive kitchen appliances player with a solid 5/10-year sales CAGR of 17%/16% (organic). Its non-core portfolio (excluding cookers, cooktops, etc.) grew 38% in FY25 to ₹602 Cr (vs ₹342 Cr in FY22), now contributing ~42% of revenue.
The company has scaled EBOs 5x in 2 years (52 → 262), leading to higher lease liabilities and depressed reported PAT (FY24 ₹35 Cr, FY25 ₹38 Cr) due to upfront depreciation and interest costs. However, adj. OCFs remain strong (FY24 ₹103 Cr, FY25 ₹105 Cr), implying healthy cash generation (~19x OCF).
At ₹1950 Cr market cap (~1.3x trailing P/S), valuation looks attractive considering:
95% in-house manufacturing with aggressive pricing strategy
-Scope for price hikes without major churn
-IKEA cookware export deal starting 2026 via dedicated plant
-Export push can drive ~25% revenue in 3 years
-Sufficient capacity to double sales without major capex
Disclosure - Invested and biased.
Monarch Networth Capital Ltd.. good to in portfolioMonarch Networth Capital Ltd 323 is trading less than its fair value of 390.
In chart, a breakout is expected with support at 296 for a technical target of 386.
PEG is lower of top 7 peers at 0.13 of Stockbroking & Allied sector and its 5 year ROE is at 26%
Pros
Company is almost debt free.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 131% CAGR over last 5 years
Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 30.0%
Debtor days have improved from 92.8 to 70.3 days.
Company's median sales growth is 17.4% of last 10 years
All this made us to suggest Monarch Networth Capital Ltd a good to have in portfolio
Aptus a good to have in portfolioAptus 322 is undervalued stock currently trading at 21.5 PE has potential for a fair value of 388.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 28.9% CAGR over last 5 years
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 28.8%
Technically it has given a "neutral" triangle pattern.
280 to 305 would be a good buy zone and 310-315 could be considered for accumulation.
FII's have increased their stake from 21 to 27% and MF has also increased 8.4 to 9.05% add value to have this stock in portfolio for good returns.
Five-Star Business Finance Ltd a good to buyFive-Star Business Finance Ltd 744 is an undervalued stock which has potential for 963.
On chart it has given bearish outlook and a entry could be considered around 687-710.
On the facts given below we suggest Five-Star a good to have in Portfolio.
Earnings and Profitability
Five Star Business Finance reported a profit after tax (PAT) of INR1,073 crores for the financial year 2025, an increase of 28% compared to the previous year. The company achieved a record high in profitability, with earnings largely driven by focus on quality growth and careful management of costs and yields.
Asset Quality
Despite challenges including regional regulatory changes and overall industry stress, the company maintained strong asset quality. The gross Stage 3 assets slightly increased from 1.62% to 1.79%, largely due to issues specific to Karnataka.
Funding and Cost Management
The company managed its operating costs effectively, keeping the cost-to-income ratio within the guided range of 35% to 37%.
Dividend Announcement
In recognition of the record profitability, the Board recommended a dividend of INR2 per share, which translates to a dividend payout of around 5.5%.
GOLD market is in a neutral-to-slightly bullish consolidationthe price sits at ₹78,189, holding above the key support zone of ₹77,800–₹78,000. Candlesticks are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and a possible breakout buildup.
If bulls reclaim ₹78,800 with strong volume, we may see a retest of ₹79,500 and possibly ₹80,000.
However, a fall below ₹77,800 will weaken the structure, risking a drop to ₹76,800.
In summary, the market is in a neutral-to-slightly bullish consolidation, and traders should watch for breakout or breakdown signals from the current tight range.















