Fundamental Analysis
Trading Discipline – The Defining Edge of Professional TradersIn Forex and Gold trading, there is one truth every trader eventually learns: discipline matters more than strategy.
A simple system executed with discipline can deliver consistent results.
A brilliant system without discipline will collapse under pressure.
🧠 Stop-loss & Take-profit – Your Survival Tools
Stop-loss: Not surrender, but capital protection.
Take-profit: Not prediction, but securing gains before greed erodes them.
👉 Rule of pros: Set SL/TP before entering a trade – and never move them out of fear or hope.
📊 Case Study: Discipline vs Emotion
Undisciplined trader: Moves stop-loss further when price goes against him. Small loss turns into account damage.
Disciplined trader: Keeps stop-loss intact, loses 1%. Over 20 trades, system edge delivers net profits.
➡️ Lose small to win big.
🚀 Habits That Build Discipline
Have a trading plan: Entry rules – SL – TP – risk – time frame.
Use alerts: Reduce stress, stop staring at charts.
Walk away after entry: Don’t let emotions interfere.
Fixed risk: 1–2% per trade, no exceptions.
Keep a trading journal: Track not only results but emotions behind decisions.
🏆 Why Discipline Separates Pros from Amateurs
Amateurs let the market control them.
Professionals control themselves.
In the long run, success doesn’t come from one “perfect trade” but from hundreds of disciplined executions.
📈 Conclusion
The market is uncontrollable. But you can control yourself.
Discipline is the edge that:
Protects your capital.
Stabilizes your mindset.
Turns strategy into consistent results.
💡 Community Question for TradingView:
👉 “Have you ever broken your stop-loss or take-profit rules? What did it teach you about discipline?”
Gold Correction: Fed Warning vs. Massive Safe-Haven Flows Hello, traders!
Gold pulled back to $3,845.78/oz after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for caution regarding further rate cuts.
Fundamentals: Fed Warns, But the Buying Wave is Unstoppable
The market stands at a crossroads:
Downward Pressure: The caution signal from Fed's Logan.
Upward Momentum: Government shutdown (increases instability, delays jobs report), weak private sector jobs data (down 32k), and SPDR Gold Trust ETF holdings rising to the highest level since 2022.
Conclusion: Political instability and weak economic data continue to reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Massive safe-haven capital is flowing into Gold.
Technical Analysis & Strategy
Gold retreated to the FIBO 0.618 - 0.5 zone, indicating a healthy technical correction after the sharp rally. Priority remains Buy if the price holds above $3861. Be cautious of Stop Loss hunting.
Resistance: $3870, $3884, $3894
Support: $3855, $3833, $3798
Trading Strategy (Tight SL):
BUY SCALP: $3838 - $3836 / SL: $3832 / TP: $3846 - $3857
BUY ZONE: $3798 - $3796 / SL: $3788 / TP: $3816 - $3836
SELL ZONE: $3888 - $3890 / SL: $3898 / TP: $3870 - $3850
Do you think the Fed's warning is strong enough to reverse this trend? 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #GovernmentShutdown #TradingView #PhânTíchVàng #ETF
GLENMARK Currently price on buying area 1980
soon it could be reach 2160 target
stock option trader can take 25 NOV 2400 CALL contract
XAUUSD – Price Channel Rising Towards 4000 USD Next Week
Hello Traders,
Every day I share scenarios for you to refer to and build your own strategy. And here is the perspective for next week – as gold is in a sustainable uptrend, approaching the psychological mark of 4000 USD.
Technical Perspective
On the H4 frame, gold continues to move within a clear upward price channel.
Every time the price touches the support trendline, a strong rebound reaction appears, indicating that buying pressure still dominates.
This price channel has remained stable for many weeks, providing a basis for us to prioritise buying in line with the trend.
The target of 4000 USD is not far away, especially when the fundamental context continues to support the upward trend.
Fundamental Context
The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, creating momentum for gold.
Current US financial-economic news is limited, as the US Government remains shut down.
Geopolitical factors have somewhat cooled down, but gold still holds its position as an important safe-haven asset.
Trading Scenario
1. Buy (main priority):
Entry: 3860 – 3865 (at the rising trendline).
TP: 3960 – 4000.
SL: manage below the trendline.
2. Sell (backup if the channel breaks):
Condition: 3853 is breached.
At that point, a new trend will form and the Sell scenario will be activated.
Conclusion
Main trend: Buy in line with the rising channel, aiming for 4000 USD next week.
Sell should only be considered if there is confirmation of a break below 3853.
The market is in a critical phase, so be patient and wait for a good entry point to trade safely and effectively.
ICICI Bank: Resistance Turned Support Powers Next RallyTechnical Analysis
ICICI Bank showcases another remarkable wealth creation story spanning over two decades. The stock has delivered an extraordinary super bullish rally, transforming from ₹40 to the current trading level of ₹1,351 - representing an impressive 33.8x growth over 20+ years.
The ₹1,345-₹1,365 zone has historically acted as a strong resistance, tested multiple times. However, with the confirmation of strong FY25 results, the stock decisively broke out from this resistance zone and created a new all-time high at ₹1,500.
Following the breakout peak, the stock witnessed a sudden fall and is now trading back in the same zone at current market price of ₹1,351. This presents a critical juncture - if the earlier resistance zone transforms into support with bullish candlestick pattern confirmations, it could signal the next leg of the rally.
Entry Strategy: Enter only on confirmation of ₹1,345-₹1,365 zone acting as support with bullish patterns.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹1,400
Target 2: ₹1,450
Target 3: ₹1,500
Stop Losses:
Critical Support: ₹1,200 (crucial demand zone)
If ₹1,200 level doesn't sustain, no more expectations on this stock.
FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
Total Income: ₹1,86,331 Cr (↑ +17% YoY from ₹1,59,516 Cr; ↑ +95% from FY23 ₹95,407 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹1,30,078 Cr (↑ +31% YoY from ₹99,560 Cr; ↑ +48% from FY23 ₹87,864 Cr)
Financing Profit: ₹-32,775 Cr (Improved from ₹-14,152 Cr in FY24)
Profit Before Tax: ₹72,854 Cr (↑ +21% YoY from ₹60,434 Cr; ↑ +58% from FY23 ₹46,256 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹54,569 Cr (↑ +18% YoY from ₹46,081 Cr; ↑ +54% from FY23 ₹35,461 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹71.65 (↑ +14% YoY from ₹63.02; ↑ +47% from FY23 ₹48.74)
Fundamental Highlights
ICICI Bank delivered robust FY25 performance with 18% PAT growth to ₹54,569 crore, supported by strong 17% revenue growth. The bank announced Q4 FY25 net profit of ₹12,630 crore, marking 18% increase, and declared ₹11 per share dividend reflecting strong financial health.
Market cap stands at ₹9,71,186 crore (up 4.06% in 1 year) with total revenue reaching ₹1,90,830 crore and profit of ₹56,563 crore. Stock is trading at 3.08 times its book value, indicating reasonable valuation for quality franchise.
Asset quality continues to improve with gross NPA dropping to 1.97% in Q2FY25 from 2.48% in Q2FY24, while net NPA ratio remained healthy at 0.43% in Q1 FY25. This demonstrates effective risk management and strong credit discipline.
The bank shows strength near key support zone of 1370-1390 on daily charts, with technical indicators suggesting potential diamond pattern formation around 1380-1400 range. Analysts expect stable net interest margins and continued momentum.
Strong digital banking initiatives, expanding retail franchise, and consistent delivery of 14-18% profit growth across quarters validates the bank's operational excellence and market leadership position in private banking sector.
Conclusion
ICICI Bank's remarkable 20+ year journey from ₹40 to ₹1,500 all-time high, backed by strong FY25 fundamentals showing 18% PAT growth and ₹11 dividend, validates the sustained growth thesis. The critical ₹1,345-₹1,365 resistance-to-support transformation offers attractive entry opportunity for targeting ₹1,500 retest. Improving asset quality with 1.97% gross NPA, strong ROE profile, and digital transformation drive provide multiple growth catalysts. Key support at ₹1,200 provides risk management framework for this quality banking franchise.
Disclaimer: tinyurl.com
HDFC Bank: Three Decades of Excellence ContinuesTechnical Analysis
HDFC Bank represents one of the most remarkable wealth creation stories in Indian equity markets. The stock has delivered an extraordinary super bullish rally over three decades, transforming from ₹1 to the current trading level of ₹955 - representing an astounding 955x growth over 30 years.
Currently, the stock is taking strong support in the ₹935-₹945 zone, which has acted as a crucial demand area. This support zone has been tested multiple times and held firm, indicating institutional accumulation at these levels.
If the three-decade bullish rally continues from current support levels, the technical setup favors resumption of the uptrend. The stock is well-positioned for the next leg of growth from the established support zone.
Entry Strategy: Accumulate in the ₹935-₹955 range with strong support confirmation.
🎯Targets:
Target 1: ₹980
Target 2: ₹1,000
Target 3: ₹1,020
Stop Losses:
Minor Support: ₹850 (intermediate demand zone)
Major Support: ₹650 (strong long-term support)
If ₹650 level breaks down, no more expectations on this stock.
FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
Total Income: ₹3,36,367 Cr (↑ +19% YoY from ₹2,83,649 Cr; ↑ +97% from FY23 ₹1,70,754 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹1,86,974 Cr (↑ +7% YoY from ₹1,74,196 Cr; ↑ +197% from FY23 ₹63,042 Cr)
Financing Profit: ₹-34,501 Cr (Improved from ₹-44,685 Cr in FY24)
Profit Before Tax: ₹96,242 Cr (↑ +26% YoY from ₹76,569 Cr; ↑ +57% from FY23 ₹61,498 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹73,440 Cr (↑ +12% YoY from ₹65,446 Cr; ↑ +59% from FY23 ₹46,149 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹46.26 (↑ +10% YoY from ₹42.16; ↑ +12% from FY23 ₹41.22)
Fundamental Highlights
HDFC Bank delivered strong FY25 performance with consolidated PAT growing 12% YoY to ₹73,440 crore, supported by robust 19% revenue growth to ₹3,36,367 crore. The bank declared ₹22 dividend reflecting confidence in sustained profitability.
Market cap stands at ₹14,51,630 crore (up 7.84% in 1 year) with stock trading at 2.77 times book value. Total revenue for FY25 reached ₹3,42,193 crore with profit of ₹73,343 crore, demonstrating consistent financial strength.
Q4 FY25 standalone net profit grew 6.7% YoY to ₹17,616 crore, with net interest income (NII) increasing 10.3% YoY to ₹32,070 crore. Net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.54% on total assets, reflecting stable spreads despite competitive environment.
Asset quality remains robust with gross NPAs at 1.36% and net NPAs at 0.33% of net advances. Average deposits for Q4 FY25 grew 15.8% YoY to ₹25,280 billion, while CASA deposits grew 5.7% YoY to ₹8,289 billion, maintaining stable share in deposit mix.
The bank is strategically managing its credit-deposit (CD) ratio and planning measured loan growth in FY26 to maintain balance sheet quality. Strong subsidiary performance and digital banking initiatives continue to drive franchise value.
Conclusion
HDFC Bank's remarkable 30-year journey from ₹1 to ₹955, backed by strong FY25 fundamentals showing 12% PAT growth and ₹22 dividend declaration, validates the long-term investment thesis. The ₹935-₹945 support zone offers attractive accumulation opportunity for targeting ₹1,020+ levels. Robust asset quality with 1.36% gross NPA, 15.8% deposit growth, and stable 3.54% NIM demonstrate operational excellence. The stock remains a core banking sector holding with multiple support levels providing risk management framework.
Disclaimer: tinyurl.com
Welspun Living Date 03.10.2025
Welspun Living
Timeframe : Weekly
About
(1) Welspun Living Limited, part of the US$ 2.7 billion Welspun Group
(2) One of the largest home textile manufacturers in the world
Revenue Mix
(1) B2B: 70%
(2) Branded: 14%
(3) Advanced Textiles: 5%
(4) E-Commerce: 4%
(5) Flooring: 8%
Geographical Split
(1) Exports: 88%
(2) Domestic: 12%
Company has a global reach to more than 60 countries
Including the USA, Canada, the UK, etc
It is the largest exporter of home textile products from India
Debt Reduction
(1) Net debt decreased from Rs. 2,228 Cr to Rs. 1,832 Cr
(2) Plans to further reduce it to Rs. 1,000 Cr by FY27
Valuations
(1) Market Cap ₹ 11,385 Cr
(2) Stock P/E 21
(3) ROCE 14 %
(4) ROE 14 %
(5) OPM 11.5 %
(7) Promoter holding 65%
Regards,
Ankur Singh
E-Commerce Trading1. Introduction
E-commerce trading, also known as electronic commerce trading, represents the buying and selling of goods and services over digital platforms. Unlike traditional trading, which relies on physical stores, direct interaction, and manual processes, e-commerce operates over the internet, enabling global access, efficiency, and automation. With the exponential growth of internet penetration, smartphone usage, and digital payment systems, e-commerce trading has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the global economy.
E-commerce trading encompasses a broad spectrum of activities, including retail trading, wholesale trading, business-to-business (B2B) transactions, business-to-consumer (B2C) sales, consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platforms, and increasingly, business-to-government (B2G) operations. This digital marketplace has transformed traditional commerce by integrating technology, logistics, marketing, and finance, enabling businesses and consumers to interact seamlessly.
2. History and Evolution
Early Beginnings
The concept of e-commerce trading dates back to the late 20th century. Early examples include Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) systems used by corporations to exchange business documents electronically. The first online retail sale is often credited to the 1994 sale of a Sting CD via the website NetMarket. Soon after, Amazon and eBay emerged as pioneers, creating the blueprint for online marketplaces.
Technological Milestones
Several technological developments accelerated the growth of e-commerce trading:
Internet Expansion: The widespread availability of broadband internet allowed users to access online stores easily.
Secure Payment Gateways: Innovations like SSL encryption, PayPal, and later UPI, digital wallets, and credit/debit card integrations made online transactions secure and convenient.
Mobile Commerce: With smartphones becoming ubiquitous, mobile apps and responsive websites enabled trading anytime, anywhere.
AI and Data Analytics: Personalized recommendations, demand forecasting, and dynamic pricing became possible, improving trading efficiency.
Cloud Computing: Allowed scalable online storefronts and storage solutions for businesses without heavy infrastructure investments.
3. Types of E-Commerce Trading
E-commerce trading is not a monolithic concept; it can be categorized based on the nature of participants:
3.1 Business-to-Consumer (B2C)
B2C trading involves businesses selling directly to consumers. Amazon, Flipkart, Myntra, and Walmart are classic examples. This segment focuses on:
Product variety and convenience.
Personalized marketing using AI and customer analytics.
Rapid delivery services.
Seamless payment methods, including COD, wallets, and UPI.
3.2 Business-to-Business (B2B)
B2B platforms facilitate transactions between companies. Examples include Alibaba, IndiaMART, and ThomasNet. Key characteristics:
Bulk transactions at negotiated prices.
Long-term partnerships and contracts.
Integration of supply chain management with trading platforms.
3.3 Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C)
C2C platforms allow individuals to trade with each other. eBay, OLX, and Quikr are examples. Features include:
Peer-to-peer sales of used goods or handmade items.
Trust-building through rating systems.
Secure payment mechanisms to ensure safe trades.
3.4 Business-to-Government (B2G)
B2G trading involves businesses providing products or services to government agencies. Digital tendering platforms, government e-procurement systems, and contracts for public projects are part of this domain.
4. Key Components of E-Commerce Trading
E-commerce trading relies on multiple integrated components that ensure smooth operation:
4.1 Online Marketplace Platforms
Platforms such as Amazon, Flipkart, Shopify, and Etsy provide the digital infrastructure for trading. These platforms host multiple sellers, offer product search and categorization, manage orders, and facilitate payments.
4.2 Payment Gateways and Financial Services
Secure payment systems are the backbone of e-commerce. Payment gateways process online transactions, while financial technologies (FinTech) like UPI, PayPal, Stripe, and digital wallets ensure instant transfers and refunds.
4.3 Logistics and Supply Chain Management
Efficient trading requires prompt delivery. Logistics includes warehousing, transportation, inventory management, and last-mile delivery. Companies like DHL, FedEx, and Indian startups like Delhivery revolutionized supply chain efficiency.
4.4 Digital Marketing
E-commerce trading thrives on digital marketing strategies, including:
Search Engine Optimization (SEO)
Social media advertising
Influencer marketing
Email campaigns and retargeting
Personalized recommendation engines
4.5 Technology Infrastructure
Modern e-commerce trading depends on advanced technologies:
Cloud computing for scalable server architecture.
AI and machine learning for predictive analytics and chatbots.
Big data for consumer insights.
AR/VR for immersive shopping experiences.
Blockchain for secure transactions and supply chain transparency.
5. Advantages of E-Commerce Trading
E-commerce trading offers numerous benefits for both businesses and consumers:
5.1 Global Reach
Unlike traditional stores limited by location, e-commerce platforms enable businesses to reach customers worldwide, expanding market potential significantly.
5.2 Cost Efficiency
Lower overhead costs due to the absence of physical storefronts, reduced staff requirements, and automation in operations contribute to cost efficiency.
5.3 Convenience
Consumers can shop 24/7, compare prices, read reviews, and receive products at their doorstep, enhancing customer satisfaction.
5.4 Personalized Experiences
Using AI-driven recommendations and behavioral analytics, e-commerce platforms provide tailored product suggestions, increasing sales and customer loyalty.
5.5 Analytics-Driven Decisions
Real-time tracking of sales, customer preferences, and market trends allows businesses to make informed decisions about inventory, pricing, and marketing.
6. Challenges in E-Commerce Trading
Despite its growth, e-commerce trading faces significant challenges:
6.1 Cybersecurity Risks
Hacking, data breaches, and fraudulent transactions threaten businesses and consumer trust.
6.2 Logistics and Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Delivery delays, damaged products, and inventory mismanagement can reduce customer satisfaction.
6.3 Intense Competition
Low barriers to entry in e-commerce result in fierce competition, driving prices down and impacting profit margins.
6.4 Regulatory and Legal Issues
Compliance with tax laws, consumer protection regulations, cross-border trade laws, and data privacy rules is complex.
6.5 Technological Dependence
Overreliance on digital infrastructure exposes businesses to risks of downtime, server failures, or software glitches.
Conclusion
E-commerce trading has transformed the way businesses and consumers interact, creating an ecosystem that is fast, efficient, and global. It bridges the gap between markets and customers, empowers small businesses, and drives technological innovation. While challenges like cybersecurity, logistics, and competition remain, emerging trends in mobile commerce, AI, AR, and sustainability promise a bright and transformative future.
Businesses that adapt quickly, embrace technology, and prioritize customer-centric strategies are likely to thrive, while traditional models will need to evolve or collaborate with digital platforms to remain relevant. In essence, e-commerce trading is not just a trend—it is the new norm in global commerce, reshaping the very fabric of trade in the 21st century.
Cross-Market Arbitrage Opportunities1. Understanding Cross-Market Arbitrage
Arbitrage is the simultaneous buying and selling of an asset to profit from price differences in different markets or forms. Cross-market arbitrage occurs when an asset, security, or derivative is traded across two or more markets (such as stock exchanges, commodity markets, or currency markets), and a trader exploits the temporary price mismatch.
1.1 Basic Concept
Imagine a stock listed on two exchanges—say, Exchange A and Exchange B. If the stock trades at $100 on Exchange A but $102 on Exchange B, a trader could theoretically buy at $100 on Exchange A and sell at $102 on Exchange B, locking in a risk-free profit of $2 per share (ignoring transaction costs). This opportunity exists because markets are not perfectly efficient at all times. Cross-market arbitrage seeks to exploit such temporary inefficiencies.
1.2 Importance in Financial Markets
Cross-market arbitrage contributes to:
Market efficiency: By exploiting price differences, arbitrageurs help align prices across markets.
Liquidity enhancement: Arbitrage strategies increase trading activity and liquidity.
Risk management: Investors use cross-market arbitrage in hedging strategies to manage exposure to price fluctuations.
2. Types of Cross-Market Arbitrage
Cross-market arbitrage can be categorized based on the types of assets, markets, and instruments involved. Below are the most common types:
2.1 Stock Arbitrage Across Exchanges
Stocks listed on multiple exchanges often exhibit price discrepancies due to differences in trading hours, liquidity, and investor behavior.
Example: An Indian company’s stock listed both on the NSE (National Stock Exchange) and BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange). If NSE trades at ₹1,000 and BSE at ₹1,005, arbitrageurs can buy on NSE and sell on BSE simultaneously.
2.2 Currency Arbitrage
Foreign exchange markets provide cross-market opportunities when the same currency pair trades at slightly different rates in different markets.
Triangular arbitrage is a common method, where traders exploit discrepancies among three currencies in different forex markets.
Example: USD/INR trades at 83.50 in New York and 83.60 in London. Buying USD in New York and selling in London can yield a profit.
2.3 Commodity Arbitrage
Commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products are often traded in multiple markets. Price differences can arise due to storage costs, transportation costs, and market demand.
Example: Gold trades at $1,900 per ounce on the London Bullion Market and $1,905 in Mumbai. Traders can buy in London and sell in Mumbai after accounting for transaction costs.
2.4 Derivative and Futures Arbitrage
Arbitrage opportunities exist between the spot market and the futures market or across derivative exchanges.
Cash-and-carry arbitrage is a common example where traders buy an underlying asset in the spot market and sell futures contracts if the futures price is overpriced relative to the spot price.
Reverse cash-and-carry occurs when futures are underpriced.
3. Mechanics of Cross-Market Arbitrage
To execute a cross-market arbitrage strategy, traders follow these steps:
3.1 Identify Price Discrepancies
The first step is to monitor multiple markets and identify assets trading at different prices. Sophisticated traders use algorithmic systems, real-time data feeds, and market scanners to detect these differences within milliseconds.
3.3 Simultaneous Execution
Cross-market arbitrage requires executing buy and sell orders almost simultaneously to avoid market risk (the risk of prices changing before both trades are completed). This is often achieved through:
High-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms
Direct market access (DMA) platforms
Automated trading bots
3.4 Risk Management
Even “risk-free” arbitrage carries risks such as:
Execution risk
Liquidity risk
Regulatory restrictions
Currency or settlement risk in international markets
Professional arbitrageurs hedge these risks using derivatives or diversification strategies.
4. Popular Cross-Market Arbitrage Strategies
4.1 Dual-Listed Stock Arbitrage
Concept: Exploit price differences in a stock listed on two exchanges.
Example: Infosys Ltd., dual-listed in India and the US as ADRs (American Depository Receipts). Traders can arbitrage price differences between NSE/BSE and NYSE markets.
4.2 Index Arbitrage
Concept: Exploit differences between a stock index and its futures contract.
Mechanism: If the futures price is higher than the fair value implied by the index, traders buy the index components and sell futures simultaneously.
4.3 Cross-Currency Arbitrage
Triangular arbitrage involves three currencies. For instance, if USD/INR, USD/EUR, and EUR/INR exchange rates are misaligned, traders can make a profit by converting currencies sequentially.
4.4 Commodity Arbitrage
Traders exploit price discrepancies in commodities across global exchanges, often factoring in shipping, storage, and hedging costs.
Example: Oil traded in NYMEX versus Brent crude in ICE Europe.
4.5 Derivative Arbitrage
Exploiting differences between options, futures, and underlying assets.
Example: Convertible bond arbitrage, where traders hedge the bond portion and speculate on the stock portion to lock profits.
5. Advantages of Cross-Market Arbitrage
Risk-Adjusted Returns: Offers relatively low-risk profits when executed correctly.
Market Efficiency: Aligns prices across markets, reducing mispricing.
Liquidity Generation: Arbitrage trading increases market depth.
Diversification: Arbitrage can diversify an investor’s portfolio by introducing trades that are market-neutral.
Predictability: Unlike directional trades, arbitrage profits rely on price discrepancies rather than market trends.
6. Challenges and Risks
Despite being considered “low-risk,” cross-market arbitrage has challenges:
6.1 Execution Risk
Delays in order execution can erase profits. Markets move quickly, so any lag can turn an arbitrage opportunity into a loss.
6.2 Transaction Costs
Trading fees, broker commissions, and taxes can reduce or nullify arbitrage gains.
6.3 Liquidity Risk
Insufficient market liquidity can prevent traders from executing trades at desired prices.
6.4 Regulatory Risk
Different countries have distinct trading rules and capital controls, especially for cross-border arbitrage.
6.5 Currency Risk
For international arbitrage, fluctuations in exchange rates can impact profits.
6.6 Competition
High-frequency trading firms and institutional players dominate cross-market arbitrage, making it less accessible for retail traders.
7. Future Trends
AI-Powered Arbitrage: AI models will identify patterns and predict mispricings with greater accuracy.
Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies: Cross-exchange crypto arbitrage is gaining traction due to high volatility and fragmented exchanges.
Global Market Integration: Increased connectivity may reduce arbitrage opportunities but also create short-lived micro-opportunities.
Retail Access: As technology becomes more accessible, retail investors may participate in smaller-scale arbitrage.
8. Conclusion
Cross-market arbitrage is a sophisticated, yet fundamentally simple, trading strategy that capitalizes on temporary price discrepancies across markets. It requires speed, precision, and careful risk management. While large institutional players dominate this space, technology is gradually enabling wider participation.
Arbitrage benefits markets by enhancing efficiency, improving liquidity, and contributing to price discovery. However, it is not without risks. Transaction costs, execution delays, and regulatory hurdles are significant challenges. Understanding the mechanics, types, and tools of cross-market arbitrage is essential for traders seeking to profit in an increasingly competitive global market.
Ultimately, successful cross-market arbitrage combines market insight, technological proficiency, and disciplined execution, making it a cornerstone strategy for risk-conscious investors in the 21st century.
LiamTrading – Gold Plan: Wide Range + US Politics Exert PressureLiamTrading – Gold Plan: Wide Range + US Politics Exert Pressure
Gold continues to fluctuate within a wide range as market sentiment is heavily influenced by news from the United States. On 3rd October, the US Senate is expected to re-vote on the temporary budget bill. If it fails, the federal government could shut down, extending into the next week. This will undoubtedly have a significant impact on safe-haven flows, making gold more sensitive to key technical resistance zones.
📊 Technical Analysis – Chart H1
Gold is moving within a wide sideways structure, oscillating around strong resistance – support zones.
Fibonacci Resistance + Psychological level around 3878–3881 → suitable for short-term Sell scalping.
Confluence support (Retest + Volume) around 3828–3830 → ideal zone to watch for Buy, expecting a recovery wave.
The larger trend still leans towards an increase, however, in the short term, the market will experience several liquidity sweeps.
🎯 Trading Scenario
Sell (short-term – prioritise on M15):
Entry: 3878–3881
SL: 3886
TP: 3860 – 3855 – 3840 – 3822 – 3810
Buy (retest support + volume):
Entry: 3828–3830
SL: 3822
TP: 3845 – 3860 – 3877 – 3890
📌 Conclusion
Today's range is quite wide, suitable for scalping according to psychological resistance zones.
Short-term Sell at Fibonacci resistance points.
Buy when price retests confluence support with volume.
Political news from the US will be a catalyst causing significant gold volatility, so it's crucial to maintain disciplined capital management.
👉 Keep a close watch on the scenarios, I will update regularly as the market experiences new movements.
PSPPROJECT IN Long#Invest #PSPPROJECT #India
The company provides services in all stages of construction: from planning and design to construction and post-construction activities, including mechanical, electrical and plumbing works
PSP Projects has a strong position in the engineering and construction sector
The company is working on major projects in the infrastructure and construction sector.
The company is currently building the largest office complex in the world (Surat Diamond Bourse)
Revenue is expected to reach INR 47.566 billion by 2028
EPS is expected to increase by 61.1% annually
The company has shown improvement in operating cash flow generation in the last reporting periods
The stock is breaking upwards from an ascending channel, which gives a chance for acceleration
Saregama India LtdDate 03.10.2025
Saregama
Timeframe : Day Chart
Key Highlights
(1) Company is almost debt free
(2) Debtor days have improved from 63.4 to 44.6 days
(3) Company's median sales growth is 18.8% of last 10 years
(4) Company's working capital requirements have reduced from 86.2 days to 40.3 days
(5) Fii & Dii have increased stake/s in the last 2-3 quarters
(6) It owns ~50% of all the music ever recorded in India
Valuations
(1) Market Cap ₹ 9,127 Cr
(2) Stock P/E 45.5
(3) ROCE 17.2 %
(4) ROE12.5 %
(5) OPM 24 %
(7) Promoter holding 60%
Business Segments
(1) Music : Licensing + Artist Management 77%
(2) Video : Films, TV, and Digital Content 23%
(3) Events : 0.5%
Geographical Split
(1) India - 59%
(2) Others - 41%
Regards,
Ankur Singh
DATAPATTNS IN (Data Patterns) Long#Invest #India #Datapattns
Data Patterns is involved in defence projects such as Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), BrahMos missile programme, and supplies to ISRO and DRDO
Government of India is aggressively promoting indigenous defence manufacturing through the Atmanirbhar Bharat policy
India's defence budget is increasing, with a focus on domestically produced equipment
The company has shown robust financial performance with a net profit of Rs 221.81 crore for 2025 and revenue growth
EPS (TTM) is Rs 38.32 crore and ROE is 15.66%
The company's revenue is expected to reach Rs 1.36 billion in the next quarter, with long-term price targets of Rs 38,930 by 2040
The company is virtually debt-free
Expansion into global export markets and development of new product segments (e.g., satellite technology, electronic warfare)
Expected to continue revenue and profit growth. Entering the positive FCF area.
EPS will show growth in the future, which will also support growth
XAUUSD – Prioritise Sell After Breaking Trendline
Hello Traders,
Gold has experienced a strong upward movement for several consecutive days, but currently, the market is showing significant reversal signals. The upward trendline on H4 has been broken, confirming the weakening buying momentum. In the medium term, the preferred scenario will be selling rather than continuing to chase buys.
Basic Context
The US Treasury has just repurchased an additional 2 billion USD in bonds, raising the total repurchase this week to 4.9 billion USD. This move indicates an effort to stabilise the bond market but also reflects significant pressure on the USD and the US financial situation.
In the short term, the injection of additional bond liquidity makes gold's movement more unpredictable, and the trendline break at this time is an important warning signal.
Technical Perspective
Breaking the upward trendline → confirms a structural change.
MACD signals weakening, with buyers losing clear strength.
The 3865 – 3868 zone is a beautiful resistance retest point to Sell.
If the price falls deeply, the support zones around 3830 – 3810 – 3790 will be the next targets.
Today's Trading Scenario
Sell (main priority):
Entry: 3865 – 3868
SL: 3875
TP: 3855 – 3832 – 3810 – 3790
Buy Scalping (counter-trend – high risk):
Entry: 3803 – 3805
SL: 3795
TP: 3822 – 3835 – 3850
Conclusion
Gold has broken the trendline, prioritising Sell in the short and medium term.
News from the US bond market further emphasises the risk of instability, making counter-trend Buy moves suitable only for short-term Scalping.
Follow me for the earliest updates on scenarios as price paths change.
DLF Downtrend Intact – Eyeing 675 Next!DLF is clearly locked in a downtrend, with lower highs forming under the descending trendline. Price is struggling to break above the capped supply zone near 735–740, which continues to act as strong resistance. As long as the stock remains below this zone, the pressure stays on the downside with the next major support seen around 675–672. A break toward this level looks likely in the coming sessions, unless bulls manage to reclaim and sustain above the capped zone, which would temporarily ease the selling pressure. Until then, the structure remains bearish, with sellers holding control. Trade safe !
Nifty Faces Heavy Resistance – 23,500 on the Cards!Nifty is currently trading into a strong resistance zone near 24900–25000, where price has faced repeated supply pressure in the past. The index is struggling to sustain above this level, suggesting sellers are defending the zone aggressively. As long as Nifty remains capped below 25000, the structure leans bearish and points toward a corrective leg lower. The first key support is seen near 23500, which aligns with a major horizontal base and prior demand area. A breakdown into this zone over the coming sessions would confirm further weakness. However, a daily close above 25000–25050 would invalidate this bearish outlook and potentially shift momentum back toward 25300–25500. Until that invalidation occurs, the short-term bias favors downside, with 23500 as the primary target in the coming days. Trade safe !
Gold Day Trading Outlook: Resistance Holding! Gold is showing signs of weakness as the resistance around 3860–3865 continues to hold strong, keeping the intraday sentiment tilted to the bearish side. As long as price stays below this band, the market is vulnerable to further downside pressure with immediate support seen near 3827 and an extended target towards 3798. Any minor pullbacks into the 3855–3860 region may attract sellers, maintaining the short-term bearish structure. However, a decisive hourly close above 3865 would invalidate this bearish view and shift the bias back to the upside, opening the door for a possible retest of 3880–3900. Until then, day trading leans bearish with sellers holding the upper hand. Trade safe !
XAUUSD – WOLFE WAVE CONTINUES, PRIORITISE BUYING
Hello trader 👋
On 02/10, we begin with the continuation scenario of the Wolfe Wave pattern. In yesterday's session, gold prices followed the upward rhythm of the pattern, but the decline at the upper line was not truly effective. Today, the market is forming a new price channel with a wider range, opening opportunities for both buy and sell orders during the session.
Regarding fundamentals, geopolitical tensions between Russia and France are escalating, while safe-haven flows continue to pour into gold. Long-term analyses suggest the $4,000 mark is entirely feasible, although there are still technical fluctuations in the near term.
⚖️ Today's trading scenarios
🟢 Buy Scenario (prioritise following the main trend):
Entry: 3,863 – 3,865
SL: 3,857
TP: 3,880 → 3,895 → 3,910 → 3,920
👉 You can enter at the current zone, or wait for a breakout confirmation above 3,871 to increase winning probability.
🔴 Sell Scalping Scenario (short-term):
Entry: 3,885
SL: 3,891
TP: Short around 3,870 (depending on price reaction)
👉 Suitable for quick scalping traders at the upper edge of the channel.
🔴 Wolfe Wave Sell Scenario (wide range):
Entry: 3,925 – 3,927
SL: 3,935
TP: Long-term expectation according to the Wolfe pattern, can be managed by closing 50% at 3R profit level, letting the rest ride the trend.
📊 General Outlook
The main trend remains bullish, buying continues to be the priority strategy.
Sell orders should only be considered as short-term opportunities at the upper range, or when the price tests strong resistance.
Volatility may increase during the day due to political news, so risk management needs to be tight.
📌 Conclusion: Gold is following the Wolfe Wave pattern with an expanding price channel. Buying at support – short selling at resistance is the suitable strategy for the day. Long-term investors can continue to expect the $3,950 – $4,000 mark in the upcoming cycle.
EURUSD – Head and Shoulders Breakdown in Play!!The chart is showing a clear Head and Shoulders formation, a bearish reversal structure that signals the market may be preparing for a deeper drop if neckline support gives way.
Chart validation:
Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder are well-defined.
The neckline sits around 1.1646 – this is the critical level to watch.
Current price is hovering above the neckline, but pressure is building on the downside.
Invalidation sits above 1.1850 – if price pushes past this level, the bearish setup is negated.
Targets from the structure:
A clean break below 1.1646 confirms the pattern.
Measured move points towards 1.1430 area as the downside objective.
Along the way, short-term jolts could test 1.1550, but the major momentum favors sellers if neckline breaks.
Trading view:
As long as EURUSD stays below the right shoulder resistance and 1.1850, bias leans bearish. The neckline is the trigger – once broken, the head and shoulders formation comes into full effect, opening space for a sharper correction.Trade safe !!
USDJPY – Weekly Triangle Near a Big Decision !!The pair has been stuck inside a large weekly triangle formation, compressing price action after years of volatility. These types of structures usually lead to powerful breakouts, and the direction will depend on how the BoJ policy stance and the Fed’s rate cut cycle unfold.
Chart validation:
Price is coiling between lower highs and higher lows the classic look of a triangle consolidation.
Resistance sits around 162, with the upper bound of the triangle capping rallies.
Support near 137–138 has been holding the downside so far.
The breakout path points to two extremes:
Upside projection: A clean break could open a run towards 175–176.
Downside projection: A bearish resolution could drag it back to 127, the lower long-term support.
Key takeaway:
For now, USDJPY is neutral but building energy.
The next decisive move will be sparked by central bank divergence if the Fed cuts faster than the BoJ tightens, the yen could strengthen and break lower; if the BoJ holds back and the Fed stays cautious, the pair could rip higher.
We should wait for confirmation outside this triangle before positioning for the next trend. Trade safe !
Ethereum – Strong Uptrend but Needs a Breakout!!Ether is still holding its strong uptrend, and the recent rejection from support has kept the bullish structure intact. The bigger picture remains positive, but short-term price action now demands a clear breakout to confirm continuation.
Current structure:
Price bounced cleanly from the 4000 zone, showing that buyers are defending the base.
The rally stalled just below the 4800–4850 resistance. This is the key barrier that needs to give way for the next leg higher.
Until then, we are stuck in a consolidation between strong support below and heavy resistance above.
Key levels to track:
Support: 4050–3950. As long as this zone holds, bulls keep the upper hand.
Breakout zone: 4768–4834. A weekly close above here should trigger momentum buyers.
Upside targets: 5515 → 5550, and if momentum extends, 6,000+.
Short-term view:
Ethereum is in a strong trend but needs that breakout above 4,800 to unlock the next wave higher. If buyers fail to push through, expect more back-and-forth action near support before another attempt.
The structure favors patience – wait for the breakout confirmation rather than chasing inside the range. Trade safe.
