Time to be Cautious in Nifty50 ?Nifty Ends Above 22,000 today, For First Time.
Time to be cautious?
The setup for 2023 was very powerful as its previous calendar year witnessed only 10 new 52-week highs, while for 2024, its previous calendar year saw a staggering 29 new 52-week highs. Today markets opened at new lifetime highs marking the second new lifetime high in just 15 days of calendar year 2024. Reliance alone is the biggest contributor in last 1000 point Nifty gain.
Furthermore, IT sector has led the Nifty rally and has spiked significantly in the last three trading sessions because of results backed by cheaper valuations.
The markets are clearly in bull's favor but the recent upswing warrants a certain degree of caution as, many times, such sharp rallies do not sustain. There is high probability that there will be profit booking in areas of ebullience, specially in small-cap & mid-cap space.
Though the larger texture of the market is still on the positive side & current leg of rally may extend up to 22,400 levels but due to temporary overbought conditions, upcoming interim budget & elections, markets may remain volatile & in profit booking mode.
We can see a selling market only after sustaining below 21750-21700 levels but right now THE TIME IS NOT TO SHORT BUT TO BE CAUTIOUS DEFINITELY.
Fundametals
Monero looks bearish, but fundamentals say otherwisePrevious trend easily breached, new trend showing a double top (indicated by arrows) which is a harmonic reversal pattern and could be an indication for bearish price action. MACD saw negative divergence on the double top as well, indicating the trend is losing strength. But the trend just broke out and it is also rational to suggest it is unlikely a correction will be seen immediately. This can also be considered because the cryptocurrency market while still being in its development phase is highly co-related. Bitcoin finally stabilizing above $11000, Ripple and Lumens had major breakouts and got out of a very stagnant rut. The general direction of the market is up, so while technicals suggest the possibility of a bearish reversal, in this hyper-volatile market, being alert is an absolute necessity as price action can swing either way.