Futureretail
Nifty respects 16350 resistance and ends close to day lowNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -06-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
16304.4 / 16336.75 / 16223.3 / 16238.2
Trading Range Low to High: 139 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 69.5 points
India VIX: 12.61 / --2.02%
FII DII activities: -680 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty made a slightly higher low but a slightly lower high.
This is indicating indecisiveness on how far it can go up as there was no attempt to retest the ATH today.
After the opening gap-up, Nifty did not recover and kept drifting down especially after RELIANCE tanked more than 2% upon losing case against Amazon in the SC.
Nifty barely managed to end the day a few points above the day low.
Though on the daily charts, it looks as if it is likely to come down further, on the weekly charts, Nifty is looking well poised for a move upwards as the momentum is picking up and the RSI has some headroom for bullish moves.
TOP 6 LOSERS
CIPLA is # 1 and SHREE CEMENTS is # 3 and ULTRA TECH # 4.
But the real problem lies in the heavyweights occupying the other spots.
RELIANCE -2.12%
SBIN -1.4%
HDFC -1.26%
When these 3 are combined, one imagines the plight of Nifty so today’s losers area is differently covered.
TOP 3 GAINERS
Likewise, in this area,
INDUSIND BANK +3.19%
ADANI PORTS +2.47%
IOC +1.88%
Are the leaders, however, Nifty was saved for the day by the following heavyweights
TECH M +1.31%
MARUTI +1.04%
TCS +0.79%
HUL +0.59%
HDFC BANK +0.53%
The positivity of HDFC BANK, as well as KOTAK BANK, ensured that BANK NIFTY did not go down much which helped prevent further slide and a possible sell off in Nifty.
POSITIVES
16200 level held for the day as well as the week.
HDFC BANK, KOTAK BANK, MARUTI, and TCS holding the fort amidst pressure from other biggies.
BANK NIFTY maintained composure despite SBIN leading the losers’ pack.
NEGATIVES
SBIN continues to be under pressure possibly on account of exposure to Vodafone Idea.
RELIANCE slipped back in the sideways zone just as it was attempting to break past the high of yesterday. The fall was sharp and severe which changed the market sentiment.
FIIs DIIs are net sellers of 680 Crores.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 9-8-21
Nifty broad range for the week 16000-16500. As of now, it has not made any significant movement from where one could derive the likely supports and resistances.
BANK NIFTY support base at 35200-600 and resistance at 36200-36500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RBI policy has become a non-event. There is hype but that is all.
Despite VIX falling, Nifty moves were choppy. This possibly indicates that the overall trend is likely to be intact and the intraday moves could be choppy when news-driven scrips make moves.
HDFC BANK was raring to close past 1500 but peer pressure prevented it from doing so. It is now above the 50 DMA which is a good sign.
Are scrips like RELIANCE worth trading? If a major scrip can slip on account of the SC verdict, is it really a solid scrip? Or all this is just done by those who have the power to sell off and a premonition about the likely verdict.
Should SEBI not look into such matters?
What do you think?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
6-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
