Global Commodity Trends: The Forces Shaping Prices1. Structural Shift from Cyclical to Strategic Commodities
Historically, commodities followed economic cycles—rising during expansions and falling during recessions. Today, many commodities have become strategic assets, driven by long-term forces such as energy transition, national security, and supply chain resilience.
Countries are stockpiling critical commodities like oil, gas, lithium, copper, and rare earths.
Governments are intervening more actively through export bans, subsidies, and strategic reserves.
Commodities are now tools of geopolitical leverage, not just market instruments.
This shift has increased price volatility and reduced the effectiveness of traditional demand-supply forecasting models.
2. Energy Commodities: Transition, Volatility, and Fragmentation
Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Energy markets are undergoing a paradoxical phase. While the world is moving toward renewable energy, oil and gas demand remains strong, especially in emerging economies.
Key trends:
OPEC+ continues to manage supply tightly to stabilize prices.
US shale production provides flexibility but faces capital discipline.
Energy security concerns after geopolitical conflicts have reshaped trade routes.
Natural gas markets have become more regionalized, with LNG playing a growing role in linking global supply.
Renewable Energy Commodities
The energy transition has boosted demand for:
Lithium
Nickel
Cobalt
Copper
These metals are critical for electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable infrastructure, creating a new commodity supercycle driven by decarbonization.
3. Metals: Industrial Demand Meets Green Transition
Base Metals
Base metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc are experiencing structural demand growth.
Copper is central to electrification, renewable grids, and EVs.
Aluminum benefits from lightweight applications in transportation.
Infrastructure spending in emerging markets supports long-term demand.
However, supply constraints—such as declining ore grades and underinvestment—are keeping markets tight.
Precious Metals
Gold and silver have reasserted their role as monetary and safe-haven assets.
Central banks are increasing gold reserves to diversify away from the US dollar.
Inflation, geopolitical risks, and currency volatility support long-term bullish sentiment.
Silver benefits from both industrial use and investment demand.
4. Agricultural Commodities: Climate, Population, and Policy Risks
Agricultural commodities are increasingly influenced by non-economic factors.
Key drivers:
Climate change causing unpredictable weather patterns.
Rising global population and changing dietary habits.
Export restrictions and food security policies.
Staples like wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans are experiencing frequent supply shocks. Weather-related disruptions, such as droughts and floods, are now structural rather than occasional risks.
Soft commodities like sugar, coffee, and cocoa are also volatile due to climate sensitivity and labor issues.
5. Inflation, Interest Rates, and Commodities
Commodities play a dual role:
They are drivers of inflation
They act as hedges against inflation
During periods of high inflation:
Energy and food prices rise first.
Precious metals attract defensive capital.
Industrial commodities respond to infrastructure spending.
However, rising interest rates can temporarily pressure commodity prices by strengthening the US dollar and reducing speculative demand.
6. Geopolitics and Supply Chain Fragmentation
Geopolitical tensions have become a permanent feature of commodity markets.
Major impacts include:
Sanctions reshaping oil, gas, and metal trade flows.
Friend-shoring and near-shoring increasing regional demand for raw materials.
Strategic competition for critical minerals.
Countries are prioritizing supply security over cost efficiency, leading to structurally higher commodity prices over time.
7. China and Emerging Markets: Demand Anchors
China remains the world’s largest commodity consumer, particularly for:
Metals
Energy
Industrial raw materials
Even as China’s growth moderates, its influence on commodity prices remains strong due to scale.
At the same time:
India, Southeast Asia, and Africa are emerging as new demand centers.
Urbanization and infrastructure development are commodity-intensive processes.
This shift ensures that global commodity demand remains resilient even if developed economies slow down.
8. Financialization of Commodities
Commodities are no longer just physical assets; they are also financial instruments.
Hedge funds and institutional investors use commodities for diversification.
ETFs and derivatives increase liquidity but also amplify volatility.
Algorithmic and high-frequency trading affect short-term price behavior.
This financial layer can sometimes disconnect prices from immediate physical fundamentals.
9. Sustainability and ESG Pressures
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors are reshaping commodity production.
Mining projects face stricter environmental regulations.
Carbon pricing affects fossil fuel economics.
Sustainable sourcing is becoming mandatory for global supply chains.
Ironically, ESG constraints often reduce supply faster than demand, supporting higher prices for essential commodities.
10. Outlook: A Volatile but Bullish Long-Term Landscape
The global commodity outlook is characterized by:
High volatility in the short term
Structural tightness in supply
Long-term bullish bias for critical resources
Key themes going forward:
Energy transition commodities outperform traditional cyclicals.
Food and water security become central global issues.
Precious metals gain importance in a fragmented monetary system.
Conclusion
Global commodity trends are no longer driven solely by economic cycles. They are shaped by a complex mix of geopolitics, climate change, technological transition, and financial forces. Commodities have evolved from passive inputs into strategic assets that influence inflation, national security, and global power dynamics.
For traders and investors, understanding these macro trends is critical—not just for price forecasting, but for managing risk and capturing long-term opportunities in an increasingly resource-constrained world.
Global
Major Global Inflation & Economic Developments (Recent)Introduction — What Is Inflation?
Inflation refers to the general rise in prices of goods and services over time, typically measured by consumer price indices (CPI). Moderate inflation is normal in growing economies, but rapid inflation erodes purchasing power, affects living standards, and complicates economic planning. Central banks and governments aim to keep inflation within target ranges (often ~2% in advanced economies) to sustain stability and confidence in markets.
Historical Context: From Low Inflation to the Recent Surge
During the 2000s and 2010s, global inflation tended to decline due to factors such as globalization, technological improvements, disciplined monetary policy frameworks, and integrated supply chains. Between 2000 and 2020, global inflation averaged about 3.4%, significantly lower than the double‑digit levels common in the 1980s and early 1990s.
However, the post‑COVID era marked a pronounced departure from this trend. Starting in mid‑2021, inflation surged sharply in many countries, reaching multi‑decade highs. This period was driven by a constellation of factors related to both global demand shocks and supply constraints.
Key Historical Drivers of the Surge
Pandemic disruptions: Lockdowns, labor shortages, and logistics bottlenecks disrupted supply chains worldwide.
Fiscal and monetary stimulus: Massive government spending and ultra‑loose monetary policies boosted demand faster than suppliers could respond.
Commodity price shocks: Energy, food, and raw material prices spiked, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, elevating inflation globally.
Food and energy pressures: These categories often dominate headline inflation, especially in developing economies with high food shares in consumption baskets.
This combination triggered a cost‑of‑living crisis in many societies, where essential goods’ prices rose faster than wages, squeezing households’ real incomes.
Recent Global Inflation Trends (2023‑2026)
Headline Inflation — Broad Global Trends
After peaking around 2022–2023, global inflation has been moderating, but not uniformly across countries or regions.
Average global inflation was estimated around 5.6% in 2023, but eased to about 4.0% in 2024.
Projections for 2025 place global inflation near or slightly above 4%, indicating that inflation remains above many central bank targets in several economies.
For 2026, forecasts suggest further decline — with estimates around 3.7% to 3.9% globally, reflecting ongoing price stability efforts.
These figures reflect headline CPI, which includes volatile food and energy prices. Underneath this, core inflation (excluding food & energy) often remains more persistent, especially in services‑oriented advanced economies.
Regional and Country Variations
Advanced Economies
Many advanced economies have successfully reined in headline inflation from their post‑pandemic highs, bringing figures back toward or even below central bank targets:
The United States inflation slowed significantly in 2025 toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target range.
Japan’s core inflation recently eased slightly but remains above its central bank’s 2% goal — signaling persistent underlying pressures.
Across Europe, headline inflation has largely moved toward target levels, though services price pressures and wage dynamics can keep core components elevated.
Many advanced economies are now focused on balancing inflation control with growth support. Central banks have either paused rate hikes or considered cuts if disinflation continues — a shift from the aggressive tightening seen in 2022–2024.
Emerging & Developing Economies
Inflation trends in emerging markets remain more heterogeneous:
Some countries have successfully lowered inflation near target ranges as commodity price effects recede.
Others, especially with weaker policy frameworks or external vulnerabilities, still experience elevated inflation — sometimes in double digits.
Outliers like Turkey and Argentina have posted high inflation rates due to structural issues, policy challenges, and currency volatility.
These disparities reflect differences in economic structures, policy credibility, exchange rate stability, and exposure to external shocks.
Drivers Shaping Current and Future Inflation
Understanding why inflation behaves as it does requires looking at several interacting forces:
1. Monetary Policy
Central banks worldwide reacted to the inflation surge by hiking interest rates. Higher borrowing costs have gradually tempered demand and inflation expectations, contributing to the disinflation observed in 2024–2026. However, the pace of disinflation depends heavily on how services inflation and wages evolve.
2. Commodity and Energy Prices
Global commodity markets significantly influence inflation. For instance, falling global commodity prices — including oil and coal — have eased cost pressures, moderating headline inflation in 2025 and beyond.
3. Labor Markets and Wages
Tight labor markets in several advanced economies have supported stronger wage growth, which can sustain core inflation if productivity gains don’t keep pace. Some central banks have acknowledged that underestimating wage growth contributed to inflation forecast errors.
4. Supply Chain and Trade Dynamics
Post‑pandemic restructuring of global supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and increased trade barriers (e.g., tariffs) have raised costs for producers and consumers in some regions. These factors can slow disinflation or even reignite price pressures if persistent.
5. Food Prices
Food inflation remains a significant driver of headline inflation worldwide, particularly in lower‑income nations where food constitutes a large share of household spending. Persistent food price volatility continues to push up living costs.
Inflation Expectations and Long‑Term Outlook
Inflation expectations — what households, firms, and markets anticipate inflation will be in the future — matter for actual price setting. Surveys show that global inflation expectations remain elevated in the medium term, with forecasts clustering around 3.7%‑3.9% for 2025 and 2026.
This suggests that while headline inflation is declining, structural pressures and uncertainty — such as labor market dynamics, geopolitical risks, and possible policy shifts — could keep inflation sticky or volatile.
Impacts of Inflation
On Households
Inflation erodes purchasing power, especially for essential goods like food, energy, and housing. Even when average inflation slows, subgroups with lower incomes often bear the heaviest burden due to higher shares spent on necessities.
On Businesses and Investment
Inflation influences business costs (wages, materials, borrowing) and investment decisions. High or unpredictable inflation can deter long‑term planning and distort resource allocation.
On Policy and Markets
Central banks constantly balance between price stability and economic growth. Too fast a policy tightening can slow growth or trigger recession; too slow a response can entrench inflation expectations.
Summary — Global Inflation in a Nutshell
Post‑pandemic inflation peaked in 2021‑23 due to disrupted supply chains, stimulus policies, and energy/commodity shocks.
Global inflation has moderated since — headline rates falling from near 8‑9% at the peak to around 3.7‑4% in 2025‑26 forecasts.
Advanced economies have generally returned toward central bank targets, while emerging markets show more variation, with some facing persistent high inflation.
Underlying drivers include monetary policy, labor market tightness, commodity prices, trade dynamics, and food costs.
Expectations remain elevated, signaling that inflation may ease further slowly rather than collapse abruptly.
NASDAQ QQQ vs Global Liquidity IndexIts a chart showing NASDAQ QQQ vs Global Liquidity Index (GLI). When ever the GLI increases the assets(Stocks, Gold, BTC) increases, but when there is liquidity crunch then the assets falls quickly.
You can get the GLI from the financial Indicator from Quantitively Adapt (User)
Growth in Emerging MarketsIntroduction
Emerging markets are nations that are transitioning from developing to developed status, characterized by rapid industrialization, growing financial markets, and increasing integration into the global economy. These economies — such as India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico — have become the engines of global growth over the past three decades. They represent not only significant opportunities for investment and trade but also a vital source of innovation, labor, and consumption.
In the 21st century, emerging markets have been at the forefront of global economic transformation. Their collective share of global GDP has risen dramatically, fueled by urbanization, technology adoption, infrastructure development, and a growing middle class. Yet, these markets also face substantial challenges — including income inequality, political volatility, inflationary pressures, and vulnerability to external shocks. Understanding their growth dynamics is crucial for policymakers, investors, and global businesses seeking to capitalize on the shifting balance of economic power.
Defining Emerging Markets
An “emerging market” is typically defined as an economy that exhibits some characteristics of a developed market but has not yet achieved that status. These economies are often marked by:
Rapid GDP growth and industrialization
Expanding middle-class populations
Developing but volatile financial markets
Institutional and infrastructural transformation
Increasing participation in global trade and investment
Organizations such as MSCI, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank classify countries as emerging markets based on factors like per capita income, market accessibility, and financial development. Major emerging markets are often referred to collectively as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) or MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey).
Historical Background
The term “emerging markets” was popularized in the early 1980s by the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) to attract investors to rapidly developing countries. In the post-Cold War era, globalization and liberalization opened new opportunities for these nations to integrate into the global economy.
From 1990 to 2020, emerging markets experienced a profound transformation:
China’s economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping unleashed massive manufacturing growth.
India’s liberalization in 1991 opened its economy to foreign investment and competition.
Latin American economies, after periods of hyperinflation, adopted market-friendly reforms.
Eastern European countries transitioned from centrally planned to market economies after the fall of the Soviet Union.
During this period, emerging markets contributed more than two-thirds of global GDP growth, reshaping international trade, investment patterns, and geopolitical influence.
Key Drivers of Growth
1. Demographic Dividend
One of the strongest drivers of emerging market growth is their young and expanding population. Countries like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria possess large working-age populations, creating both a labor supply and a consumer base. This demographic advantage supports productivity, innovation, and domestic demand — essential elements for long-term growth.
2. Urbanization and Infrastructure Development
Urbanization is a hallmark of emerging markets. Rapid migration from rural to urban areas has fueled demand for housing, transport, energy, and digital infrastructure. Cities have become centers of economic activity, contributing to higher productivity and consumption. Governments and private investors are heavily investing in infrastructure projects such as metro systems, smart cities, ports, and renewable energy.
3. Technological Leapfrogging
Emerging markets have harnessed technology to overcome traditional development barriers. The widespread adoption of mobile banking, e-commerce, and digital services has revolutionized sectors like finance, retail, and healthcare. For instance, India’s UPI digital payment system, Kenya’s M-Pesa, and China’s Alipay and WeChat Pay have made financial inclusion a reality for millions.
Additionally, emerging economies are becoming innovation hubs, contributing to global technology supply chains. Startups in fintech, edtech, and agritech are leveraging local needs and global technologies to create scalable solutions.
4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Trade Integration
FDI has played a critical role in boosting industrialization, technology transfer, and job creation in emerging markets. Multinational corporations view these economies as growth frontiers due to their large markets and lower labor costs. The signing of regional trade agreements — such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) in Asia — has further deepened trade integration.
Emerging markets are also major players in global supply chains, especially in manufacturing, natural resources, and services. China became the “world’s factory,” while India emerged as a global IT and service hub.
5. Rising Middle Class and Consumption
The growth of the middle class has transformed emerging markets into major consumer economies. Rising incomes, better education, and urban lifestyles have driven demand for goods and services ranging from smartphones to automobiles. According to McKinsey, emerging markets will account for more than 50% of global consumption by 2030, making them pivotal for multinational corporations.
6. Policy Reforms and Economic Liberalization
Most emerging economies have undertaken structural reforms — privatization, deregulation, and financial liberalization — to attract investment and enhance competitiveness. Independent central banks, modern taxation systems, and digital governance have strengthened institutional frameworks and improved macroeconomic stability.
Challenges Facing Emerging Markets
While emerging markets have immense potential, their growth trajectories are not without obstacles.
1. Political and Institutional Instability
Weak governance, corruption, and policy inconsistency remain major barriers. Political instability can deter investors and slow reform implementation. For instance, frequent changes in government policies or bureaucratic inefficiencies can create uncertainty for long-term investments.
2. Income Inequality and Social Disparities
Economic growth has not always translated into inclusive prosperity. Many emerging economies face widening income gaps between urban and rural populations. Unequal access to education, healthcare, and digital resources hinders human capital development and social mobility.
3. Dependence on Commodities
Several emerging markets — particularly in Africa and Latin America — rely heavily on commodity exports such as oil, copper, and agricultural products. This makes them vulnerable to price volatility and global demand shifts. Diversification remains a persistent challenge.
4. External Shocks and Currency Volatility
Emerging markets are highly sensitive to global financial conditions. Fluctuations in U.S. interest rates, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks can trigger capital outflows, currency depreciation, and inflation. Episodes like the 2013 “taper tantrum” and the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of their financial systems.
5. Debt and Fiscal Pressure
Rising public debt, especially after the pandemic, has strained government budgets. Many countries have borrowed heavily to finance infrastructure and welfare programs, increasing vulnerability to credit downgrades and default risks.
6. Environmental and Sustainability Issues
Rapid industrialization has come at an environmental cost. Pollution, deforestation, and climate change pose existential threats to long-term development. Transitioning to green energy and sustainable industries is now essential but financially challenging.
Case Studies: Leading Emerging Markets
1. China
China is the quintessential emerging market success story. Through export-led growth, massive infrastructure investment, and state-directed capitalism, it became the world’s second-largest economy. However, China now faces slowing growth, demographic decline, and geopolitical pressures. The government’s push for technological self-reliance and green transition marks the next phase of its development.
2. India
India’s growth has been fueled by services, technology, and digital innovation. With a young population and expanding middle class, it is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030. Initiatives like “Make in India,” “Digital India,” and “Startup India” aim to boost manufacturing, innovation, and entrepreneurship.
3. Brazil
Brazil’s economy is driven by natural resources and agriculture but often hampered by political volatility and inflation. Recent efforts to promote renewable energy, fintech, and agritech indicate potential for sustainable diversification.
4. Indonesia and Vietnam
Southeast Asian economies like Indonesia and Vietnam have benefited from global supply chain shifts. Their competitive labor markets, stable governance, and reform-oriented policies make them attractive destinations for manufacturing and FDI.
5. African Emerging Economies
Africa, with its abundant resources and youthful population, represents the next frontier. Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa are witnessing rapid digitalization and entrepreneurship. However, infrastructure gaps and governance challenges persist.
Future Outlook
1. Digital Transformation
The future of emerging markets will be shaped by digital infrastructure — 5G, AI, and fintech will drive innovation across industries. Governments and private sectors are investing in digital literacy, e-governance, and data economies to enhance competitiveness.
2. Green Growth and Sustainability
Sustainability is becoming central to policy agendas. The shift toward renewable energy, electric vehicles, and sustainable agriculture offers both challenges and new growth avenues. International financing for green projects will be key to achieving low-carbon transitions.
3. Regional Integration and South-South Cooperation
Emerging markets are increasingly trading and investing among themselves. Initiatives like BRICS cooperation, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and ASEAN integration are strengthening economic ties and reducing dependency on developed economies.
4. Innovation and Entrepreneurship
The entrepreneurial ecosystem in emerging markets is booming. Startups in fintech, healthtech, and edtech are solving local problems with global scalability. This innovation wave can help create high-value jobs and promote inclusive growth.
5. Balancing Growth with Inclusion
To sustain growth, emerging markets must prioritize education, healthcare, and social equity. Policies that enhance skills, reduce poverty, and support SMEs will be crucial for ensuring broad-based prosperity.
Conclusion
Emerging markets have transformed the global economic landscape. They have become the new centers of growth, innovation, and consumption. While challenges such as inequality, governance, and volatility persist, their potential remains enormous. With continued reforms, digital adoption, and sustainable policies, emerging markets are poised to lead the next wave of global progress.
As the balance of economic power shifts eastward and southward, the future of global growth will increasingly be written in the cities of Asia, Africa, and Latin America — where ambition, technology, and resilience are redefining what it means to “emerge.”
BTCUSD is at support level of previous monthly lowBTCUSD is currently at support level which is at 91232.
if it breaks below on a closing basis then their a high chance of seeing the targets of 87287, and 85037, and if 85037 breaks on a closing basis then very soon 80510.
If the previous month's support is taken by BTCUSD then we will see a rally towards at 100000 and 103000.
*This view is for educational purposes only.
GLOBAL - Weekly Chart Analysis, CMP-345.80Coming out a base and probable VCP. Sustained above the supply/resistance zone for almost 3 weeks now. Quarterly results have been good so far.
It is sailing above all the key moving averages too.
366-310 shall now act as a support and if it manages to weekly close below it and a follow up we see thereafter would invalidate our view.
428 - 508 - 609 are the probable levels it can test over the long term.
Disclaimer: This is just a study and shared here for educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell recommendation in any way. If you intend to trade this counter then do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.
MEDANTA (Global Health Ltd.)Global Health Ltd.. Riding the stairs . Heading to base 3
Best Buy : @530 After breakout of the box or @500 if found near the trendline.
Stop loss : 498 or Below Trend line
Targets: 555/580/600/620++++
Note:
''This idea is only for educational purpose,
Please Trade at your own RISK''..
THANKS.
Nifty 50 for todayNifty 50 for today
Nifty 50 looking short down trend from at the level of 19700-750 . At this levels everyone looking for profit bookings until unless break up side 20,000. We have to wait for confirmation.
Today's outlook
If break 19700 then we can seen some downfall of 100-140+ points... Because 19600 after have GAP if market go on that zone then possible...
ZUARI GLOBAL "BUY CALL" POSSIBLE 16% ROIThis channel provides Nifty and Bank Nifty analysis and provides swing trades for equity.
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HOW TO INVEST IN US MARKETS | STEP BY STEP GUIDENYSE:V
Trade Logic | UPTREND STOCK BUY ON BREAKOUT . INVEST LONG TERM . US STOCK #1.
Entry 235
Stop 225 -4%
Target 250 +6%
RR 2.2+ 2nd Target Open
Details on chart as always
1 free US Stock Trade Idea Every Weekend.
TOPIC THIS WEEK | HOW TO INVEST IN US MARKET FROM INDIA
STEP 1. You can do it in many ways. Some Brokers provide you this facilities. Upstox used to do it earlier. Maybe some other brokers also. If you know any comment Below. Share with other trades too.
But 1 Simple way is start with INDMONEY app. You can search on Internet for more info. Its registered with SEBI too so hopefully safe.
STEP 2. Do all the Registration formalities. You can tranfer funds online and offline too. Best way is to Start with ICICIBANK account. It is only Bank for online Quick Transfer of funds currently . More details ON TWITTER.
STEP 3. Stay connected with us here on TRADINGVIEW. Every weekend we will share 1 good Trade and investment idea on US stocks. You can study and invest after your own analysis.
Thanks for Reading. Share with your friends. If you have any Doubts comment below. Happy Investing.
TEST FIRST / THEN INVEST
NIFTY respects global cues, ends below 17400NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -20-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17443.85 / 17622.75 / 17361.85 / 17396.9
H-L = 261 points
VIX 17.49 / +14.84%
FII DII: -1534 Crores
SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17427 +54 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. A lot depends on how the US markets end.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-down straight to the FIB support level and then the index rallied to cross 17600, however, that was short-lived as just before noon, the sell-off commenced and it never looked back.
The relief rally may have been caused by short-covering from last week’s charts and mainly driven by the index heavyweights.
NIFTY by EOD was down almost 400 points from the ATH level and it now seems to be a thing of the past.
The day low was 17361 so the bounce was more of a technical in nature to end just below 17400.
Wait and watch for now.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HUL 12
BAJAJ FINSERV 05
ITC 05
NESTLE 02
HCL TECH 02
TOTAL 26
The Draggers
HDFC 28
JSW STEEL 22
TATA STEEL 19
HDFC BANK 19
ICICI BANK 12
TOTAL 100
Lifter - Draggers = -74
POSITIVES
FMCG saved the day and RELIANCE also stood firm although it came down from the day high level but closed above 2380 which is where it is finding huge volatility.
There is hardly any other positive seen today as NIFTY was plagued by the very weak global cues.
NEGATIVES
In a matter of just over 1 session, BANK NIFTY has fallen more than 1000 points from its ATH high of 38112.
This impacted NIFTY in a huge manner and logically, it may have alone contributed 275-300 points fall in NIFTY.
There is no dearth of negatives today so not writing anything here as the list may become far too long.
TRADING RANGE FOR 21-09-21
17300-17350 was the support line and frankly, I did not expect it to be visited so soon. I am not sure what the level on the upside would be as NIFTY may keep taking resistances where the earlier supports were seen and at all-around numbers.
On the downside, 17200-250 may be the last line before the situation becomes ugly.
BANK NIFTY supports now stand at 36600-800-37000 and resistances at earlier supports.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
VIS shot up to 17.49 which is way above the recent levels and the selling pressure is causing this spike in VIX.
Despite severe selling pressure, KOTAK BANK held on to 2000 levels for the day. How it plays out tomorrow would decide what is the extent of strength in it.
Whenever there is a huge down move, it takes time for NSE to update FII / DII numbers. I am not sure why does it happen only in respect of down moves? Buy & Sell are just numbers so are they double-checking what is getting reported in a down move?
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
19-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
DJI - Dow Jones INDEX Gap Filling ?
As seen in Chart DJI has given huge Gap Down in today’s session and it can head towards its weekly support of 33153.
If Today’s Gap Down is not filled then we may break 33153 level and head towards 31496 or 30996.
If these bearish views are successful then be careful in your long positions since it has been observed that US markets impact other markets globally and Indian Markets (Nifty and Sensex) fall will be more serious.
Disc. : Views Shared for Education Purpose only. Consult your Financial Advisor before taking any position.
Please like Share and Comment if you like our work.
DOW JONES THIS WEEKKeep watching Global market...any time we can expect a profit booking..
- On January 20, Joe Biden will officially become president - this is an major event in this month
- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present Union Budget on February 1
These are the major upcoming events.....keep an eye on it....
Be fearful when others are greedy....
indian market hitting new and new high significantly.....So be fearful.
How World Trend Performed Before Indian Stock Exchanges opensDo you Ever Wonder How world Trend is Performing Before the Indian Market Opens.
How Major American Stock Exchanges performed ?
How Major Asian Stock Exchanges are performing ?
How is Major European Stock Exchanges are performing?
It will be great if you get to Know all these in one place.
Major American Stock Exchanges
AMERICAN Region Stock Exchanges
INDEX NAME
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500 Index
Nasdaq Composite
Russell 2000 Index
NYSE ARCA OIL INDEX
S&P/ASX 200
NYSE AMEX COMPOSITE INDEX
S&P/TSX Composite index
IPC MEXICO
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS
picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the American Markets Trendline.
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
drive.google.com
ASIAN MARKET
SENSEX
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei 225
Kosdaq Composite Index
Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index
Thailand
Israel
turkey
indoneshia
KOSPI Composite Index
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
The picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the Asian Markets Trendline.
drive.google.com
MAJOR INDIAN INDICIES
NIFTY
NIFTY BANKnifty
NIFTY AUTO
NIFTY METAL
NIFTY FMCG
NIFTY PHARMA
NIFTY MEDIA
NIFTY INFRA
NIFTY IT
NIFTY ENERGY
The picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the Indian Markets Trendline.
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
drive.google.com
The picture contains a graphical representation of trendline which will indicate the overall movement of that regions performance this picture shows The global Trendline Vs the Indian Asian Trendline.
X-axis contains 0-100% the indication of how much positive the market has moved a weighted average calculation. Y-axis is time in IST.
drive.google.com
EUROPEAN MARKET
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX
MDAX
FTSE 100 Index
IBEX 35
CAC 40
FTSE 100
ESTX 50 PR.EUR
swiss market index
MOEX Russia Index
Nifty - Technical - PossibilitiesThree possible reversal levels are Shown in the chart
1st it needs to breakout the descending channel Resistance level
2nd it needs to break Fib 0.5 retracement level + Failure line of head and Shoulder pattern
3rd it needs to breakout the ascending channel resistance
Before moving 10600 levels nifty might retest the ascending channel support...
Global cues and Covid- 19 cases in India and 2nd Wave of Covid-19 also gives strong resistance to the markets...
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Analysis is for educational purpose..






















