XAU#14:Payrolls Fall,Inflation Rises– Should You Invest in Gold?💎 💎 💎 The market is volatile! The Fed has not cut interest rates, but inflation expectations are soaring. Is this a golden time to invest in FOREXCOM:XAUUSD , or are there still potential risks? 💎 💎 💎
⏳ Opportunity or trap? Let's plan for OANDA:XAUUSD , let's do it!!! 🚀
1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:**
📊 Employment: Non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, lower than the forecast of 170,000 and the lowest level since October 2023. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, the lowest since May 2023.
📌😂Fed policy: The Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. A cut in June is possible if inflation continues to cool and the labor market remains stable.
🚀 US one-year inflation expectations rose to their highest level since November 2023. This is only the fifth time in 14 years that we have seen such a large increase (one percentage point or more) in inflation expectations for the coming year in a single month.
✅️ In short, the market is still waiting for a clearer signal from inflation and subsequent data. In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate with a large amplitude, waiting for more CPI data and statements from the Fed to have a clearer trend.
2️⃣ **Technical analysis:**
🔹 **Frame D**: Friday evening's candle closed as a Shooting star candlestick pattern, giving us a little warning of a correction. However, looking at the W candle, it could also be just a profit-taking move of BUY positions when the market closes at the end of the week.
🔹 **H4 frame**: In this time frame, we can see a pinbar appearing when it has just passed the old peak, showing that the market needs a better momentum to conquer the new price level
🔹 **H1 frame**: The bullish price structure reappears when the price passes 2870, but we still have to wait for confirmation at the trendline support area.
3️⃣ **Trading plan:**
⛔ The conflict in basic information data over the weekend is clearly reflected in the price line. At the moment, we should wait for price reaction at important support areas to establish positions.
✅ Looking at the price line, the old peak area has been rejected and there is a high possibility that we will have a slight correction to gain momentum to move to a higher price zone. The end of the W candle shows that the uptrend of Gold has not shown any signs of ending. Prioritize trading in line with the main trend.
💪🚀 **Wishing you successful trading!**
