XAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume ProfileXAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume Profile
Gold is moving sideways and consolidating around the 4,300 USD/oz area. The short-term direction remains unconfirmed and requires clear reactions at key liquidity zones.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN SCENARIO
Medium-term trend-following buy strategy at price areas with Volume Profile advantage
Primary buy zone: around 4284 based on VAL
Technical context: this is the lower value area where buying interest is likely to appear as the market continues to consolidate
Price expectation: price holds above VAL, absorbs short-term selling pressure, and gradually rotates back toward the upper balance area
Position management:
If price reacts positively and H1 candles hold above the 4284 level, a medium-term bullish bias in line with the main trend can be maintained.
If price breaks clearly below VAL, caution is required and deeper reaction zones should be monitored.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SCENARIO
Deeper buy opportunity in the event of additional liquidity sweep
Alternative buy zone: around 4242, based on the VAH of the previous value area
Technical context: this area represents the upper value zone of the prior consolidation and may act as strong support during a deeper pullback
Price expectation: downside liquidity sweep followed by a recovery, restoring market balance
SELL SCENARIO – HIGH RISK
Sell positions should only be considered as short-term trades, not a primary strategy
Short-term sell zone: around 4378, based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension
Note: sells should only be considered if clear price rejection signals appear. Avoid holding short positions for extended periods while the broader trend remains bullish.
KEY REASONS
On the H1 timeframe, price is consolidating, indicating the market needs additional liquidity before confirming the next directional move
Volume Profile clearly highlights high-probability trading zones, particularly VAL at 4284 and VAH at 4242
The 4378 level represents an extended resistance zone suitable for profit-taking or short-term countertrend sells
MACRO CONTEXT AND MARKET SENTIMENT
Gold continues to hold strong near the 4,300 USD/oz level, supported by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and rising safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, silver has faced short-term profit-taking pressure after reaching record highs, reflecting a more cautious market tone.
This week’s focus is on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Weak data may reinforce gold’s bullish trend, while strong data could trigger a short-term correction amid ongoing policy uncertainty within the Fed.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Avoid trading while price remains in the middle of the consolidation range and away from key Volume Profile levels.
The medium-term buy strategy loses its edge if price breaks clearly below 4242 and fails to reclaim the level.
Closely monitor volatility around the Nonfarm release, as sharp spikes and liquidity sweeps are highly likely.
Long
