XAUUSD – H1 uptrend channel, short-term downside risk increasingXAUUSD – H1 uptrend channel, short-term downside risk increasing Brian – Prioritize short selling at the channel peak, wait to buy back at lower support
I. Strategy Summary Gold is trading in an uptrend channel on H1, but the rise around 4.160 shows signs of weakening, increasing short-term correction risk.
Preferred Scenario: Short sell at the channel peak 4.162–4.164, targeting support areas 4.145 – 4.130 – 4.115 – 4.100.
After the correction, the 4.100–4.080 area may become the foundation for the next rise in the larger trend.
Important price areas to watch: 4.139 – 4.127 – 4.110 – 4.088.
II. Macro Context & News 27/11
02:00 – Fed releases Beige Book This document updates the Fed branches' assessment of the US economic situation.
Describing slower growth, cooling price pressures will further reinforce expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates → supporting gold.
Conversely, if the Beige Book describes the economy as still “resilient,” the market may temporarily slow down pricing in rate cuts → causing a short-term adjustment for gold.
19:30 – ECB releases October meeting minutes
If the minutes lean towards the scenario of keeping high interest rates longer, the EUR may be supported, indirectly affecting the USD and gold inflows.
However, the impact is usually not as strong as US data, mainly affecting the overall risk-on/risk-off sentiment.
General Context: Gold has surpassed 4.160 USD/oz as the market increasingly expects the Fed to cut interest rates as early as December, reducing the appeal of interest-bearing assets and increasing the allure of gold – a non-yielding asset. This creates a support foundation for the medium-term uptrend, but after a hot rise, technical adjustments on H1 are normal.
III. Technical Structure – H1 uptrend channel
The price is within the H1 uptrend channel, with rising peaks and troughs, but the upper area near 4.160 coincides with:
The upper boundary of the price channel. The “Sell POC” area on the chart – where liquidity and sell orders are concentrated.
Preferred scenario on the chart: The price may slightly rebound to the POC area 4.162–4.164, then be rejected and slide to the important support area around 4.110 before extending the adjustment down to 4.100–4.080.
The lower trendline of the uptrend channel also acts as a short-term buy area if a clear candle reaction appears.
Notable price areas on H1: Resistance: 4.162–4.164 (channel peak + POC). Intermediate support: 4.139 – 4.127 – 4.110. Deep support: 4.088 – 4.080 – 4.100 (area that may form the bottom for the next rise).
IV. Trading Plan 1. Preferred Scenario – Short sell at the channel peak Idea: Short sell when the price rebounds to the upper boundary of the H1 uptrend channel and POC 4.162–4.164, expecting a correction to support.
Sell: 4.162–4.164 SL: 4.168 TP targets: TP1: 4.145 TP2: 4.130 TP3: 4.115 TP4: 4.100
This is a counter-move order in the uptrend channel, only targeting a short-term correction, not a major trend reversal scenario.
2. Supplementary Scenario – Short buy at support trendline Idea: When the price hits the lower trendline of the H1 uptrend channel and a nice candle reaction appears, consider a short-term buy according to the channel, prioritizing areas:
4.139 – 4.127 – 4.110 – 4.088
Specific Entry/SL levels will depend on the actual price reaction at the trendline, but the general principle:
Buy close to the trendline,
SL placed below the immediate support area,
TP aimed at the middle of the channel or the nearest resistance.
V. Risk Management & Notes
Do not open new positions right before or at the time of the Beige Book and ECB minutes release, as volatility may suddenly increase, widening spreads.
The sell order at 4.162–4.164 is a short-term counter-trend order in the uptrend channel, requiring moderate volume and strict adherence to SL 4.168.
If the price clearly breaks and holds above the 4.170 area, the H1 correction scenario weakens – in that case, stay out, wait for a new structure instead of trying to maintain a sell view.
