Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up Inflation Cools, Gold Heats Up
In June, the United States inflation fell to 3%, which is the lowest since March 2021. This was slightly below the market's expectations of 3.1% and a significant decline from May's rate of 4%. Additionally, the core inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.8%, marking its lowest level since October 2021.
The implication of this deceleration is that it could prompt the Federal Reserve to scale back its plans for interest rate hikes. With inflation showing signs of cooling, the central bank may now be inclined to raise rates only once more throughout the remainder of the year.
In the wake of the inflation report gold prices shot up, soaring by more than 1.3%. The metal breached the $1,940 resistance level but fell just short of clearing the $1,960 overhead barrier. If further upward momentum materializes, it could pave the way for a potential retest of $1,975 and $1,980.
At the same time, the US dollar faced a steep decline, sinking to its lowest point in over 14 months. Against the Swiss franc, it tumbled to depths not witnessed since early 2015, settling at 0.8673 francs, down 1.4%. Earlier in the session, it even touched 0.8660, marking its weakest position since the Swiss National Bank abandoned the Swiss currency peg back in January 2015. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar hits a six-week low of 138.47 yen, witnessing a 1.4% decline. Additionally, the US dollar weakens by more than 1.5% against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Conversely, the euro surges to its highest level since March last year, reaching $1.1125. The Euro trades up 1.2% at $1.113.
Goldpriceprediction
Has Gold (XAUUUSD) Topped out? Gold Price May FallOn Friday, 5 May 2023, Gold price got rejected from the All-time high levels of 2050-2070.
The drop resulted in formation of a DAILY BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLESTICK PATTERN as well as an EVENING STAR CANDLESTICK PATTERN at the ATH resistance levels, which shows sellers are active at this level.
Checking out previous price action, the GOLD Price is trading in a rising channel making HIGHER HIGHS & HIGHER LOWS which signifies the uptrend.
However, checking the RSI indicator which shows the momentum in the uptrend, RSI is making LOWER HIGHS. This results in BEARISH DIVERGENCE!
A Bearish Divergence is a sign of loss of strength in uptrend which means bulls are getting weak and may signal profit booking & trend reversal.
But this does not means to get Bearish on GOLD as of now. We need further confirmations for that.
If Daily candle closes below the rising channel as well as 1968, price may drop till 1940.
Area between 1915-1940 is the must hold level for BULLS. If price closes below 1915 we can then expect beginning of downtrend in GOLD
BUT, since price is still in uptrend and we must follow the trend untill it ends. If daily closes above 1970, price may continue to go high.
CONCLUSION
1. Price is still in uptrend.
2. If daily closes below 1968, price may drop till 1940
3. Area between 1915-1940 is a must hold levels for bullis. If price closes below 1915, a new downtrend may begin.
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE.