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XAU/USD: Gold in Downtrend, Waiting for Demand Surge⏰ Timeframe: 30m 📅 Update: 11/20/2025 🔍 Market Context After the technical rebound at the beginning of the week, gold returns to adjust within the descending channel pattern, indicating that short-term upward momentum is temporarily weakening. The current structure reflects a rebalancing state after the price was rejected at the 4,127 USD supply zone – coinciding with the 30-minute frame Supply Zone. However, the Demand Zone below still plays an important role in maintaining the medium-term upward structure. 📊 Technical Structure Supply Zone (4,127 USD): main resistance area, confluence with the nearest peak – where the price was strongly rejected during the Asian session. OB Bearish (4,106 USD): short-term supply area, highly likely to be retested after completing the adjustment phase. Demand Zone (4,013 USD): main support area in the descending channel, also the confluence point between the channel boundary and the lower liquidity zone. Liquidity Sweep: signal indicating that lower liquidity has been absorbed, opening up the possibility of forming a higher low. 🎯 Market Outlook High probability scenario: 1️⃣ Price continues to fluctuate within the descending channel, retesting the 4,013 USD Demand Zone. 2️⃣ If a clear price reaction occurs, the market is likely to break the channel, opening up a technical rebound to OB Bearish 4,106 USD or Supply Zone 4,127 USD. 3️⃣ Losing the 4,013 USD area will temporarily invalidate the rebound structure, bringing the price back to a lower balance area around 3,990 USD. 🧠 Analyst’s View Gold is in a corrective pullback phase – where the market needs to regenerate liquidity before forming a new expansion wave. A reasonable scenario is sweep – retest – expansion: sweep lower liquidity, retest the supply area, then determine the main trend for the end of the week. Buyers still have a slight advantage as long as the Demand Zone is maintained. 🛡️ Risk Note This is a phase of market liquidity accumulation, fluctuations may be erratic.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Goldscale-Capital
Gold Forms Inverted Head & Shoulders: Reversal Signal!After a short-term corrective decline, the $4,000 level has triggered strong BUY momentum, creating a clear price rebound at the end of yesterday's session. The increase in buying volume indicates that the BUY side is returning to the market after several sessions of being pushed down. 📊 Prominent Technical Structure On the 2H chart, gold is completing the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern – one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns. • Head: liquidity bottom at 4,00x • Two shoulders: forming symmetrically with good bounce • Neckline: area 4,101–4,102, currently a key resistance Price is likely to: 1️⃣ Slightly adjust to the neckline area or BUY ZONE 4,044–4,046 2️⃣ Retest – Accumulate – Confirm breakout 3️⃣ Break out towards 4,146 → 4,187 when the pattern is complete 🎯 Short-term Expectations Volatility may increase ahead of upcoming economic data, so the reasonable strategy remains: ✅ Prioritize BUY according to the pattern • Wait for retest of neckline or area 4,044–4,046 • Observe confirmation force (Volume – Momentum – Rejection) • Target towards 4,146 → 4,187 if the pattern is activated ⚠️ Note – The reversal trend is only truly confirmed when the price clearly breaks the 4,101–4,102 area. – Market sentiment currently leans towards recovery, but clear signals are needed before entering large (long-term HOLD) positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Still in Distribution, FOCUS ON SELL Setups at 4,10x–4,14x 🔍 Market Context Risk sentiment remains fragile as investors reassess the global rate and stimulus story. Goldman Sachs notes that rising worries about the size of Japan’s fiscal stimulus are bringing financial risk premia back, putting pressure on long-term JGBs and the JPY. Capital tends to rotate into USD and yield-bearing assets in this environment, which limits the upside for gold in the short term. 📊 XAU/USD Technical Structure (H1) After topping around 4,242 USD, gold broke its short-term uptrend and is now moving in a descending structure. Price is currently capped below the 0.5–0.382 Fibonacci area around 4,11x, which overlaps with a strong supply / Sell Liquidity zone on the chart. Below price, we have a series of liquidity / support pockets: 4,098 – 4,077 – 4,048 USD: short-term downside liquidity levels. OBS BUY ZONE around 4,00x: major demand zone where price previously launched a strong rally. Current price action shows sellers still in control – every bounce into 4,10x–4,14x is being rejected quickly, which fits a “sell the rally” approach. 🎯 Trend-Following Trade Ideas (for reference) Zones below are technical areas to watch, not signals or financial advice. Scenario 1 – Shallow Pullback Sell Sell Zone 1: 4,102 – 4,104 SL: 4,110 TP levels: TP1: 4,098 TP2: 4,077 TP3: 4,048 Idea: Price makes a minor intraday pullback into local supply, then resumes selling pressure toward lower liquidity pockets. Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback into Fib/Trendline Confluence Sell Zone 2: 4,142 – 4,144 (confluence of descending trendline + Fibonacci combo) SL: 4,150 TP levels: TP1: 4,133 TP2: 4,105 TP3: 4,088 TP4: 4,060 Idea: If the market grabs more upside liquidity first, the 4,14x zone offers a better R:R area to align with the H1 downtrend. ⚜️ MMFLOW TRADING View As long as price stays below 4,14x and H1 structure keeps printing lower highs, gold remains in a distribution phase. Pullbacks into the 4,10x–4,14x liquidity band are treated as opportunities to optimize SELL entries, while the 4,00x OBS BUY ZONE is the key area to reassess any potential larger bottoming process. “In a downtrend, our job isn’t to call the bottom – it’s to use every weak bounce to sell from a better position.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Near Breakout Point — The Next Move Will Be BigGold is holding firmly inside a tight compression zone, and the market is signalling that a major breakout is loading. Despite yesterday’s pullback, buyers defended key demand levels, showing that bullish momentum is still alive as we approach the weekend session. 📊 Technical Outlook (H1) Price is currently moving inside a symmetrical triangle, with volatility compressing and liquidity building on both sides. Key observations from MMFlow structure: • Zone 1 – Support (Potential Reversal Area) 4,174 – 4,159 → Strong confluence of trendline support + Fibonacci 38.2% + liquidity sweep potential. → If price taps this zone, it's a high-probability long setup. • Zone 2 – Resistance / Breakout Line 4,207 – 4,212 → This is the key breakout ceiling. → A clean break and retest opens the door toward the next expansion wave. • Measured Move Target (MMF Expansion Target) 4,244 – 4,252 → Aligns with Fib 1.618 extension and previous liquidity pocket. 🎯 Trading Scenarios (MMFlow Style) 🟢 BUY Scenario (Primary Bias) Buy Zone 1: 4,174 – 4,159 SL: below 4,150 TP: 4,205 → 4,212 → 4,228 → 4,244+ Why? This zone carries the strongest confluence for a bullish reaction before the breakout. Ideal spot for Market Makers to reload. 🔵 BUY Scenario 2 (Break & Retest) Trigger: Break above 4,207 – 4,212 Entry: Retest of 4,207 SL: below retest wick TP: 4,228 → 4,244 → 4,252 Why? Breakout from triangle compression usually leads to fast displacement toward untested liquidity highs. 🔴 SELL Scenario (Short-Term Only — Not Preferred) Only valid if price fails to break 4,207 and forms a clear rejection. Entry: 4,207 – 4,212 SL: above 4,220 TP: 4,174 → 4,159 Note: This is a counter-trend micro-play. Primary bias remains bullish. 🧠 MMFlow Insight The market has been accumulating for multiple sessions, and every dip into demand is being bought aggressively. As long as price stays above 4,159, the bullish structure is intact. A breakout above 4,212 could be the ignition point for the next impulsive expansion toward 4,244 – 4,252.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Hits a 3 Week High but the Real Move Might Still Be LoadingGold just tapped $4,213 — the highest level in three weeks, powered by growing expectations of a dovish Fed and optimism around the potential reopening of the US government. But the real story isn’t the headline spike — it’s the structure forming right beneath it. 📌 Why this zone matters right now Price is pulling back into $4,179–$4,165, a clean Demand zone aligning with Fibo + breakout structure. Buyers remain firmly in control despite a mild USD recovery. The market swept liquidity around $4,207, hinting at accumulation before the next expansion. The broader pattern resembles a falling-wedge breakout, often appearing before strong upside continuation phases. 🎯 Most Probable Scenario (Mind Insight) Gold is in a “compression before expansion” phase. Once this squeeze resolves, momentum is likely to continue in the direction that’s already dominant — and right now, that’s the bulls. 🔶 MMF BUY Zone $4,179 → $4,165 Looking for a shallow pullback before the next leg. 🔼 Bullish Targets • $4,207 (liquidity tap) • $4,228 (Fibo 1.618) • $4,236 (Fibo 1.786 — major reaction zone) 🧠 Key Takeaway As long as Gold holds above $4,165, the bullish structure remains intact and the upside expansion toward the upper Fibo cluster stays in play.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Breaks Out from Accumulation, Eyes Wave 3 Expansion🔍 Market Context Gold kicked off the new week with strong upside momentum, perfectly aligning with MMFLOW’s previous outlook — calling for a Wave 3 impulse from the accumulation base around 3,940$ – 3,970$. The market’s reaction in early Asia confirmed a bullish structural shift, as gold continues to gain traction amid stable yields and cautious sentiment around the US Dollar. Macro catalysts remain balanced, but liquidity behavior suggests smart money is loading into the breakout phase, positioning early for a potential run toward the 4,100$ handle this week. If momentum sustains, this move could mark the official mid-term reversal that MMFLOW anticipated — setting up a broader recovery phase into year-end. 📊 Technical Outlook (H4 Structure) Gold continues to follow its Elliott Wave recovery path, now developing Wave (3) within the medium-term bullish cycle. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Support: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (accumulation base & breakout retest) • 🎯 Target 1: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (Wave 3 completion zone) • ⚙️ Target 2 / Extended: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 extension) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term momentum, return to neutral structure. The breakout above 4,000$ reinforces bullish sentiment, while higher highs and sustained volume through 4,072$ would confirm a new impulsive phase with room to expand further. 🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View This breakout isn’t random — it’s a smart-money-led accumulation exit after weeks of liquidity sweeps. The narrative remains consistent: “Buy the dips inside strength.” As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the probability of retesting 4,100$+ remains high, and a move toward 4,200$ before year-end cannot be ruled out. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “When the crowd hesitates, liquidity has already chosen direction.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAU/USD – Holds Its Range, Preparing for a Year-End Expansion🔍 Market Context Friday’s New York session closed with a two-sided liquidity sweep, yet gold managed to hold its structural balance, maintaining the same rhythm seen over the past two weeks — sideways to mildly bearish, but firmly supported. This behavior shows that buyers are still defending key zones, especially around 3,940$ – 3,980$, which MMFLOW highlighted multiple times last week as the decisive liquidity floor. From a macro lens, the Fed’s cautious tone has slowed expectations for aggressive rate cuts — but the probability of another reduction before Q1 2026 remains alive. As we move toward the final stretch of the year, thinner liquidity and seasonal safe-haven flows could help gold establish a mid-term bottom, setting the stage for the next impulsive leg. 📊 Technical Structure (H4) The current chart presents a clear 5-wave recovery structure within a tightening range — a classic setup before expansion. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Support Zone: 3,942$ – 3,982$ (liquidity base + strong absorption area) • 🎯 Wave 3 Target: 4,072$ – 4,133$ (first reaction zone) • ⚙️ Extended Target / Wave 5: 4,189$ – 4,201$ (Fibo 1.618 projection) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → loss of short-term structure, possible re-accumulation lower. The structure remains sideways but constructive, and a confirmed breakout of the descending trendline could act as the catalyst for a year-end bullish continuation. 🎯 MMFLOW TRADING View Smart money continues to accumulate within equilibrium zones, with every liquidity sweep appearing more like preparation than rejection. As long as gold stays above 3,970$, the bullish bias remains valid — with a 60%+ probability of a move toward 4,130$+ in the short to mid-term. Historically, November–December often brings portfolio rebalancing and policy easing cycles, both of which may serve as fuel for a potential gold rally into Q1 2026. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “Accumulation isn’t waiting — it’s when big money quietly builds the next wave.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAUUSD Eyes 4000$ Breakout as Accumulation Phase Near Completion🔍 Market Context After a week of sideways consolidation within a broad range, gold (XAU/USD) is showing the first signs of structural recovery. The market is gradually carving a potential short-term bottom, hinting that the corrective phase may be ending — and a breakout from the range could be imminent. Despite the lack of new macro catalysts, sentiment remains underpinned by renewed safe-haven flows and expectations that the Fed will maintain its easing stance through early 2026. Traders are now watching closely whether the 4,000$ handle will finally give way — a key inflection zone that could trigger aggressive momentum buying if reclaimed. 📊 Technical Structure (H1–H4) Gold is currently trading above the intraday demand zone 3,969$–3,982$, maintaining a short-term bullish structure while compressing under resistance. The descending trendline and Fibo confluence near 4,019$–4,048$ act as the next critical reaction area for breakout confirmation. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Demand Zone: 3,969$ – 3,982$ (liquidity base + ascending trendline confluence) • 🎯 Primary Resistance: 4,019$ – 4,048$ (trendline + Fibo 1.272/1.618) • ⚙️ Bullish Target: 4,046$ → 4,052$ → 4,090$ (extended range liquidity) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,960$ → risk of a deeper correction toward 3,940$. 🎯 MMFLOW Outlook Smart money appears to be absorbing liquidity within the 3,970$ zone, suggesting accumulation before expansion. If gold can break and sustain above 4,000$, the bias flips decisively bullish — opening the door for a range expansion toward 4,050$+. This could mark the beginning of a new impulse phase following weeks of compression. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “When volatility sleeps, liquidity quietly builds the next trend.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Holds 3,980$ as Bulls Eye Recovery Toward 4,020$🔍 Market Context Gold steadies near the 3,980$ mark as traders weigh shifting expectations on US interest rates. The latest ADP employment report showed a modest increase of 42,000 jobs — easing fears of an accelerated slowdown but reinforcing the broader cooling trend in the labor market. While the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have supported bullion throughout the year, the prolonged US government shutdown now clouds macro visibility, delaying key economic data. Despite mixed sentiment, gold remains one of 2025’s strongest-performing assets, up over 50% year-to-date, driven by ETF inflows and central bank demand. 📊 Technical Outlook (H1–H4) Gold has staged a notable rebound from the 3,947$–3,969$ demand zone, reclaiming short-term structure and approaching the 3,990$–4,000$ liquidity pocket. This area aligns with the 0.618 Fib retracement and descending trendline resistance — making it the next decision point for intraday traders. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Support: 3,947$ – 3,969$ (Liquidity Base / Re-accumulation) • 🎯 Resistance: 3,992$ – 4,024$ (Fibo 0.618 + Trendline Confluence) • ⚙️ Extended Bull Target: 4,028$ – 4,033$ (1.272–1.618 Fibo Expansion) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Below 3,940$ → shifts bias toward 3,905$ liquidity pool. 🎯 MMFLOW View Smart money continues to accumulate within the re-accumulation pocket near 3,950$, hinting at latent bullish intent. If price holds above 3,970$ after today’s consolidation, an extension toward 4,020$–4,033$ remains highly probable. However, failure to maintain intraday demand could invite another liquidity sweep before a larger push higher. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “Liquidity reveals intention — structure only confirms it.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Rebuilds Structure Above $3940, Eyeing $4030 Liquidity Pool🔍 Market Context Gold is attempting to regain bullish momentum as safe-haven demand remains supported by rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around the upcoming US ADP employment data. The market continues to oscillate between risk aversion and rate expectations — with the Fed’s hawkish tone keeping the Dollar capped but steady. At the same time, capital flow rotation from equities into defensive assets is quietly supporting the metal’s structural recovery, with gold holding above key liquidity levels despite intraday volatility. 📊 Technical Analysis (H1–H4) After forming a double-bottom structure near $3,938, XAU/USD has reclaimed the 38.2% retracement zone (3,974–3,975) from its previous bearish leg. This area now acts as a pivot zone, separating short-term bullish continuation from potential retracement. The chart reveals a classic liquidity cycle shift: Phase 1: Sweep of downside liquidity below 3,930, marking an internal structural low. Phase 2: Expansion leg reclaiming short-term FVGs, signaling a potential smart money accumulation phase. Phase 3: Repricing toward upper liquidity targets aligned with Fibonacci extensions. Key Technical Zones: • 💎 Liquidity Base: 3,938 – 3,950 (recent demand re-entry area) • 🎯 Rejection Zone 1: 3,974 – 3,999 (previous inefficiency block) • ⚙️ Target Zone: 4,033 – 4,045 (1.272–1.618 Fibo extensions, liquidity pool) • ⚠️ Invalidation: Break below 3,920 would shift structure back to distribution. 🎯 MMFLOW Scenario If gold sustains above the 3,950 support cluster, buyers are likely to extend the retracement toward 3,999–4,033 where resting liquidity sits. A clean rejection from 4,000 could trigger an intraday pullback — but as long as price holds above the 3,938 OB base, the bullish recovery structure remains intact. The short-term narrative favors controlled accumulation, suggesting that smart money is building positions into liquidity zones before the next impulsive move. ⚜️ MMFLOW Insight: “Liquidity isn’t random — it’s engineered. Every move leaves a footprint, and gold is tracing its next one above $3,950.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns🔍 Market Context Gold continues to weaken as renewed optimism over US–China trade relations reduces safe-haven demand. Despite the Fed’s dovish tone after the latest FOMC meeting, the Dollar remains relatively capped, offering limited support to bullion. However, the technical landscape remains bearish — the decisive break below the $4,000 handle signals a continuation of the downside structure that’s been unfolding since early in the week. 📊 Technical Analysis • Structure: Clear downtrend across H1–H4, with consistent lower highs and controlled liquidity sweeps. • Key Resistance: 3,985 – 4,000 (former support now turned supply). • Short-Term Targets: – 3,925 – 3,930 → initial liquidity pocket. – 3,880 – 3,860 → extended bearish target aligned with Fibo 1.618 extension. • Invalidation: Only a confirmed break & hold above 4,020 – 4,030 would shift bias neutral-to-bullish. 🎯 Trading Outlook If gold retests the 3,985–4,000 zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers are likely to extend control toward 3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC-driven volatility. Momentum remains bearish as long as the market trades below the 4,000 pivot — liquidity below 3,900 may attract smart money before any meaningful rebound. ⚜️ Summary This decline isn’t random — it’s a structural reset. The market is rebalancing after months of overextended bullish sentiment. Watch how price reacts between 3,920–3,880 — this zone could define the next shift in gold’s short-term direction. 📊 MMFLOW TRADING Insight: “Smart money doesn’t chase candles — it waits for liquidity to shift.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Recovers 1000 Pips Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus📊 Market Overview After a sharp selloff that shook long positions, Gold has rebounded nearly 1000 pips, recovering from the 388x area toward 398x ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Despite the short-term recovery, Gold remains down around 3.5% this week, showing caution as traders reposition before the Fed decision and amid easing U.S.–China trade tensions. Currently, the price is trading near $3,980–3,990 during the Asian session, consolidating below the psychological $4,000 mark. 💎 Technical Outlook (H1–M15) Gold continues trading in a short-term ascending channel, showing a corrective recovery inside a larger downtrend. Immediate Support Zones: • 3,961 – 3,937 → Trendline retest & OBS Buy Zone • 3,918 → Structural invalidation area Resistance & Key Reaction Levels: • 4,018 – 4,085 → Mid-term resistance • 4,094 – 4,102 → Major Sell Zone (Fibo 1.5–1.618 confluence) 📍If Gold breaks and holds above 4,018, momentum could extend toward 4,085–4,102. 📍If it rejects near 4,094–4,102, a correction toward 3,961–3,937 is likely. 🌍 Macro Context – FOMC Ahead Markets expect a 25bps rate cut. A hawkish tone from Powell may pressure Gold, while a dovish one could send it above $4,100. 🧭 Summary Gold keeps a short-term bullish bias but remains fragile ahead of FOMC. Expect volatility around 4,000–4,100; key reactions near 4,094–4,102 will decide the next move. 🛡 Stay patient — liquidity builds before clarity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns🔍 Market Context Gold continues to struggle amid renewed optimism around US–China trade talks. The shift in sentiment has reduced safe-haven demand, while softer expectations of further Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar capped — offering limited downside support for XAUUSD. However, the technical landscape remains clearly bearish. The break below the ₹4,000 handle confirms continuation of the downtrend first outlined in early-week plans. 📊 Technical Analysis Structure: Gold maintains a clean bearish channel on the H1–H4 frame. Immediate resistance: ₹3,985 – ₹4,000 (former support, now supply zone). Target zones: • Short-term liquidity area near ₹3,925–₹3,930 • Extended target sits around ₹3,880–₹3,860, aligning with Fibo 1.618. Invalidation: Only a sustained break and hold above ₹4,020–₹4,030 would neutralize this short-term bearish bias. 🎯 Trading Outlook If gold retests the broken ₹4,000 zone and fails to regain it, expect sellers to extend control toward ₹3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC meeting. That event may later define the next recovery point — but for now, momentum remains firmly on the downside. ⚜️ Summary Gold’s recent slide isn’t random — it’s structural. The market is rebalancing after excessive bullish sentiment, and liquidity below ₹3,900 is likely to attract attention before any significant rebound. Watch the reaction near ₹3,920–₹3,880 — that’s where the next meaningful decision for gold may emerge. 📊 MMFLOW TRADING Insight: Smart money doesn’t chase candles — it waits for liquidity to shift.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
GOLD DIVE—Sniping the $405x Dip Before FOMC!Welcome Traders! Gold (XAU/USD) is correcting sharply, dropping 1.10% towards $4,065. This weakness is driven by trade optimism, but the underlying Fed rate cut expectation keeps our BUY ON DIPS strategy highly profitable! 🧠 MARKET PSYCHOLOGY (MIND) Bears' Power: Trade optimism is pushing safe-haven assets down. Sellers are targeting the recent uptrend structure. Bulls' Anchor: Weak US inflation data means a Fed rate cut is almost certain (25 bps expected). This long-term USD weakness acts as a floor for Gold. Action Bias: BUY THE DIP at critical Fibo supports, anticipating the Fed decision to fuel the next rally. 📊 KEY LEVELS & ACTION ZONES (H1) We are using the Fibo retracement from the recent high to define our optimal entry points. 🎯 SELL TARGET / CEILING: $4,164.938 (Zone 416x). This is the immediate resistance and the ultimate target for the Long trade. 🔥 HIGH-CONVICTION BUY ZONE: $4,048.493 (Fibo 0.5 Zone 405x). The optimal entry to maximize risk/reward. Strategy: Wait for a clean tag and H1/M30 reversal signal here. ⚡️ SCALP BUY REACT ZONE: $4,077.605 (Zone 407x). A quick bounce area for aggressive buyers. ❌ INVALIDATION: SL must be placed safely below the 0.618 Fibo level of the 405x zone. 📈 TRADING PLAN SUMMARY (DIP BUY) Entry Focus: Prioritize the $4,048.493 (405x) Fibo Zone for a high-quality Long entry. SL Placement: Strict SL below the 0.618 Fibo of the 405x zone. TP Target: Aim for the recent high at $4,164.938 (416x). 💬 TRADER'S QUESTION The drop is here! Are you buying the aggressive 407x level or patiently waiting for the optimal 405x Fibo zone before the expected Fed cut rally?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FranCis-MatrixFibo
Gold Stuck Near ₹4,100 Ahead of CPIMarket Pulse: Gold is holding steady around ₹4,100, caught between uncertainty and opportunity as traders brace for the US CPI release and new developments in US–China trade talks. The yellow metal has paused its recovery from ₹4,050 → ₹4,160, while the US Dollar and bond yields edge higher amid renewed geopolitical tension and surging oil prices. This is the classic “calm before volatility” moment — the market is simply waiting for data to decide the next wave. If CPI comes in softer or trade talks disappoint, liquidity could flood back into gold, breaking above ₹4,155–₹4,160 and opening the path toward ₹4,215 → ₹4,261. But a strong CPI surprise could flip sentiment fast — dragging price back into the ₹4,056 and ₹4,018 buy zones, where the next reaction will decide direction. 📊 Technical Outlook (M30) Price continues to coil within a tight structure between ₹4,100 – ₹4,155, forming a “spring compression” right below trendline resistance. Market flow suggests accumulation beneath ₹4,100, hinting that liquidity is building before the next expansion. Key Structure Zones: Resistance Pivot: ₹4,154 – ₹4,155 → Key breakout level Breakout Support (CP Zone): ₹4,056 – ₹4,060 Liquidity Buy Zone: ₹4,018 – ₹4,020 Sell Zone (Fibo Reaction): ₹4,215 – ₹4,261 🎯 Trading Plan – MMFLOW Style 🔹 BUY PLAN – Reaccumulation Base Entry: ₹4,056 – ₹4,060 Stop Loss: ₹4,045 Targets: ₹4,100 → ₹4,140 → ₹4,155 Focus on reaction candles & liquidity grab confirmation. 🔹 BUY PLAN – Liquidity Sweep Setup Entry: ₹4,018 – ₹4,020 Stop Loss: ₹4,005 Targets: ₹4,056 → ₹4,100 → ₹4,150 If liquidity sweeps this zone clean, watch for a sharp recovery flow. 🧭 Summary – MMFLOW View Gold is in “decision mode”, waiting for CPI and macro catalysts to trigger the next trend. The structure stays neutral-bullish as long as price holds above ₹4,056. A confirmed breakout above ₹4,155 may unlock a fast rally toward ₹4,215–₹4,260, while a break below ₹4,018 could open the door for one more liquidity flush. ⚜️ MMFLOW Bias: No need to predict the move — just follow the flow when liquidity confirms. 📊 Do you expect gold to break higher after CPI, or trap traders before reversing?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Holding Gains Ahead of Key US CPI DataGold extends its bullish momentum in early Asian trading, hovering near ₹4,370, supported by rate-cut expectations from the Fed and ongoing US government shutdown concerns, which continue to pressure the USD. According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 99% probability of another rate cut next week — a strong catalyst for gold bulls. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. However, all eyes are on the US September CPI report due later this week. A hotter-than-expected reading could temporarily lift the USD and trigger short-term volatility in gold prices. 🔍 MMFlow Technical Outlook Gold is currently consolidating around the ₹4,320–₹4,370 range after reaching the ATH zone. Price action shows a clear liquidity sweep at the highs, followed by a minor retracement — still within the bullish structure. The main trendline remains intact, suggesting that any dip toward ₹4,305–₹4,260 may attract new buyers. ⚙️ Trading Plan (MMFlow View) 🔼BUY SCALP 📌Entry: ₹4,302 – ₹4,300 (½ volume) ❌Stop Loss: ₹4,292 ✔️Take Profit: ₹4,310 → ₹4,315 → ₹4,320 → ₹4,330 → ₹4,340 → ₹4,350+ 🔼BUY ZONE (Swing) ✨Entry: ₹4,260 – ₹4,258 ❌Stop Loss: ₹4,252 ✔️Take Profit: ₹4,265 → ₹4,270 → ₹4,280 → ₹4,290 → ₹4,300+ 📈Buy setups remain favored as long as price holds above ₹4,260. Intraday sell reactions near ₹4,360–₹4,378 are short-term only — watch for liquidity grabs and bullish re-entry opportunities. ⚡️Key MMFlow Zones CP Down Zone / OBS Sell Zone: ₹4,360 ATH Liquidity Sell Zone: ₹4,448 Retest Trendline / OBS Buy Zone: ₹4,305 End FVG Uptrend / OBS Buy Zone: ₹4,260 Sentiment: 🟢 Bullish Bias Bias Confirmation: CPI Data & Fed Rate Expectations Strategy: Buy-the-Dip → Target Liquidity Above ₹4,370–₹4,380 🔥 Stay patient — let liquidity drive the next leg. MMFlow tracks smart money zones, not emotions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAUUSD PLAN | When balanced breaks, strength leaves its mark.🔍 Market Context After setting a short-term peak at the 4,385 – 4,372 USD zone, gold has entered a strong technical correction phase, with a series of consecutive red candles breaking the short-term upward structure. The sellers temporarily dominate, pushing the price through the H1 upward trendline. However, the support zone below (Liquidity Zone + Order Block Bullish) is beginning to show absorption, indicating that buyers might return at discounted price zones. 💎 Technical Analysis Previous Bullish BoS: confirms the main trend is still long-term bullish . FVG Down Zone: 4,285 – 4,260 USD → a price imbalance zone left in the downtrend, possibly where the price may retrace to “fill the gap” before choosing a direction. Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,222 – 4,218 USD → a short-term support zone where new buying liquidity appears. Order Block Bullish: 4,203 – 4,185 USD → a confluence area between OB and Fibo 0.786, where large capital might return. Deep Bullish OB: 4,142 – 4,128 USD → the last defensive zone for the main upward trend. Order Block Bearish: 4,372 – 4,385 USD → a critical resistance zone, likely to react if the price retraces. The current structure shows gold is in a retracement – liquidity rebalancing phase, with insufficient signals to reverse the trend. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Buy reaction at Liquidity zone 4,222 – 4,203 USD Entry: 4,222 – 4,203 SL: 4,185 TP: 4,260 → 4,318 → 4,372 ✅ Condition: Strong rejection candle (rejection / engulfing bullish) appears at the support zone or small reversal BoS. ➡️ This is a “buy the dip” setup following the main trend, leveraging the liquidity zone and confluence OB. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Sell reaction at FVG Down 4,285 – 4,260 USD Entry: 4,260 – 4,285 SL: 4,300 TP: 4,222 → 4,203 ✅ Condition: Strong bearish candle or rejection signal appears at the FVG zone. ➡️ This setup is for scalping traders or short-term shorts in the unfilled price balance zone. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not FOMO buy when the price has not confirmed the 4,222 zone. If the price breaks below 4,185 → wait for a re-test to continue selling towards the 4,128 zone. Keep moderate volume, as the market is in a rebalancing phase – liquidity remains noisy. 💬 Conclusion Gold is in a transitional phase after a strong decline . The 4,222 – 4,203 USD zone will be key to determining whether the medium-term upward trend continues. If this zone holds, gold is likely to retest the 4,318 – 4,372 USD zone. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Buy reaction at 4,222 – 4,203 USD when confirmed. Technical Sell at FVG 4,260 – 4,285 USD if a clear rejection appears. 🔥 “When the market is unbalanced, the strongest side will leave a mark – and this time, the mark is around the 4,220 USD zone.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
2
4,200 or 4,285? Gold’s Next Move Decides It All📊 Market Overview Gold remains under pressure at the start of the week, trading below last week’s record highs, after a sharp correction from the 4,380s down to the 4,240 zone. Investor sentiment is cautious as the market navigates a mix of uncertain U.S. economic data, a still-closed U.S. government, and renewed geopolitical tensions across multiple regions — all of which are fueling both fear and indecision in the market. During early Asian hours, gold showed a mild recovery but continues to move sideways in a tight consolidation range, reflecting indecisive liquidity buildup before the next major move. 🧠 Technical Structure (MMFLOW View) Gold is consolidating between short-term support near 4,206–4,204 and resistance around 4,285–4,287. Liquidity has started to cluster above and below the current range, suggesting that a breakout is imminent. The 4,166 – 4,140 region remains a major Smart Money re-entry zone, aligned with the CP BUY ZONE + OBS demand block. On the upside, 4,313 – 4,342 stands as a key supply zone where large sellers previously stepped in. Until price breaks out decisively, traders should expect choppy intraday conditions with limited follow-through. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch 🟢 BUY ZONE (Liquidity Re-entry Zone) Zone: 4,206 – 4,204 SL: 4,200 TP: 4,210 – 4,215 – 4,220 – 4,230 – 4,240 – 4,250 – ??? 🔴 SELL ZONE (Liquidity Reaction Zone) Zone: 4,285 – 4,287 SL: 4,292 TP: 4,280 – 4,275 – 4,270 – 4,260 – 4,250 – ??? ⚙️ MMFLOW Scenarios 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If gold sustains above the 4,200 – 4,210 support area, a short-term rebound toward 4,270 – 4,285 can be expected. Breaking above 4,287 would open room toward 4,313 – 4,342 (OBS Sell Zone), where Smart Money may begin distributing again. 2️⃣ Bearish Scenario: A clean break below 4,200 could trigger a deeper retracement toward 4,166 – 4,140 (CP BUY ZONE). This would still represent a healthy correction within the broader bullish macro structure. ⚡️ MMFLOW Insights Market remains neutral-to-bullish, but current movement reflects accumulation within a compression range. Sideway structure indicates the market is loading liquidity for the next impulsive leg. Patience is key — traders should wait for clean breakout confirmations before scaling positions. ⚠️ Trading Notes ✅ Use tight Stop Losses — gold’s volatility remains unpredictable during macro uncertainty. ✅ Avoid over-leveraging while price stays inside the sideway channel. ✅ Focus on reaction zones (CP, OBS, and liquidity sweeps) for precise entries. 🧭 Quick Summary Gold trades sideways below record highs. Key support: 4,206 – 4,204, key resistance: 4,285 – 4,287. Short-term bias: Range-bound with bullish undertone. Best approach: Buy dips at liquidity zones; wait for breakout confirmation before trend trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Pulls Back From All-Time High – Correction Looks Limited📊 Market Overview Gold slightly corrected from its all-time high near $4,239, showing early signs of a short-term pullback, but the overall trend remains bullish. Despite the correction, fundamental sentiment still supports Gold: 💬 US–China trade tensions and geopolitical risks continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. 💵 The US Dollar remains under pressure amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. ⚖️ Ongoing concerns about a possible US government shutdown further enhance Gold’s attractiveness. These factors suggest that the current dip is likely a healthy correction within a strong uptrend, not a reversal. 🧠 Technical Structure (MMFLOW Wave View) Gold has likely completed a minor Wave (V) on the M30 chart, forming a new ATH Zone near 4,239. Currently, price is unfolding a corrective A–B–C pattern, expected to find support at key liquidity zones before resuming the uptrend. Our model highlights two potential BUY setups and a short-term SELL scalp opportunity for today’s trading session. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch 🔵 BUY Setup 1 Zone: 4,184 – 4,182 SL: 4,178 TP: 4,188 – 4,192 – 4,196 – 4,200 – 4,210 – 4,220 – ??? 🟢 BUY Setup 2 (Deeper Retrace) Zone: 4,148 – 4,146 SL: 4,140 TP: 4,152 – 4,156 – 4,160 – 4,170 – 4,180 – 4,190 – 4,200 🔴 SELL SCALP Opportunity Zone: 4,230 – 4,234 SL: 4,238 TP: 4,220 – 4,215 – 4,210 – 4,200 – 4,190 – ??? ⚙️ MMFLOW Trading View 📈 Price is currently respecting Wave (A) of the correction. We expect a possible (B) retracement toward 4,220 – 4,230, followed by (C) decline completing near 4,147 – 4,150 (Fibo 0.618 / CP Buy Zone). From there, Smart Money may re-enter long positions targeting a fresh liquidity sweep toward the 4,285 SELL ZONE. In short: The uptrend remains intact, only a short-term correction is unfolding. Patience is key — best opportunities will likely appear around 4,150 – 4,180 range. The structure aligns perfectly with both technical confluence (Elliott + Liquidity Zones) and macro sentiment. If the market holds above 4,140, Gold could aim for new highs toward 4,285 – 4,300 in the next few sessions. However, traders should: ✅ Always use Stop Loss — volatility is high near record highs. ✅ Avoid overtrading in narrow pullback zones. ✅ Focus on reaction at key liquidity levels before entering. ⚡️ Summary Gold remains technically bullish with limited downside correction. Watch for price reaction around 4,184 and 4,147 — both zones represent strong liquidity areas where Smart Money may look to buy again. After completing this correction, a new impulsive leg up toward 4,285+ could unfold, potentially marking the next all-time high.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
XAUUSD – Safe-Haven Flows Continue to Support GoldMarket Context: Gold has attracted strong buying for the fourth consecutive session, supported by a mix of global risk factors: renewed US–China trade tensions, rising geopolitical uncertainty, and growing fears of a prolonged US government shutdown. Meanwhile, dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve are keeping the USD under pressure — further enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding safe-haven asset. During the Asian session, XAU/USD printed a fresh all-time high, with bulls now eyeing a potential extension toward the 4,200 USD/oz region amid escalating global concerns. Technical Outlook (M30): Gold continues to respect its ascending channel structure, maintaining dynamic support between 4,167 – 4,154. As long as price holds above 4,139, the broader trend remains bullish, with the next liquidity target sitting at 4,240 – 4,241. Key Zones to Watch: Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,240 – 4,242 ATH Zone / Short-Term Resistance: 4,190 – 4,200 OBS Buy Zone – CP Trendline Support: 4,141 – 4,139 Secondary Buy Zone: 4,114 – 4,112 Trading Plan: 🔹 BUY Zone Entry: 4.141 – 4.139 SL: 4.134 TP: 4.145 → 4.150 → 4.155 → 4.160 → 4.170 → 4.180 🔹 BUY Zone Entry: 4.114 – 4.112 SL: 4.106 TP: 4.120 → 4.125 → 4.130 → 4.140 → 4.150 🔹 SELL Zone (Scalp Reaction) Entry: 4.240 – 4.242 SL: 4.248 TP: 4.235 → 4.230 → 4.225 → 4.220 → 4.210 → 4.200 Summary: The bullish market structure remains intact as long as price holds above the 4,139 zone. Watch for potential long opportunities from 4,141 – 4,139, where the confluence of trendline and order block support could trigger fresh demand. Bulls remain in control, targeting the 4,240 – 4,241 liquidity area in the coming sessions. 📊 What’s your take — will gold break above 4,200 or pause for a correction first? 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily market structure insights and institutional-style setups. 🟣 Chart: XAUUSD M30 – Smart Money Flow structure highlighting liquidity pools, CP confluence and key buy/sell zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
m15 timeframe sees gold drop sharply by 50 points 🔍 Market Context Gold prices have just reached an all-time high (ATH GOLD) around the 4,180 USD mark, following a steep upward rally over several sessions. Immediately after, the market witnessed the first break of structure (BoS) – a sign that the upward momentum is weakening . Currently, prices are returning to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 4,125 – 4,145 USD , and this is likely a liquidity rebalancing phase before prices choose the next direction. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,180 – 4,185 USD Fair Value Gap (FVG): 4,125 – 4,145 USD → an empty price zone that needs to be filled. Order Block Buy Zone 1: 4,050 – 4,060 USD → the nearest demand zone, potentially creating the first technical reaction. Order Block Buy Zone 2: 3,980 – 3,985 USD → a deeper demand zone, large liquidity confluence, possibly becoming the main "accumulation point." Overall Structure: After breaking the upward channel, the market is in a retracement phase – the medium-term structure remains bullish . 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Short-term Sell Scenario – filling FVG and technical adjustment If prices continue to test the FVG 4,125 – 4,145 USD zone without surpassing it, → consider a short-term sell to catch the technical retracement phase. Target: the first OB Buy Zone at 4,050 USD . Stop Loss: above 4,155 USD (to avoid being swept above the FVG peak). ➡️ This scenario suits short-term traders following corrective waves – only enter when there is a clear reversal candle confirmation. 2️⃣ Trend-following Buy Scenario – catching the rebound from OB Zone If prices adjust to the 4,050 – 4,060 USD zone, observe reaction signals such as Bullish Engulfing or strong Rejection . Upon confirmation, initiate a trend-following buy order . Target: zone 4,125 → 4,145 USD or the previous peak at 4,180 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,030 USD. If the first OB zone does not hold, the 3,980 – 3,985 USD zone will be an ideal area for long-term "accumulation." ⚠️ Risk Management Avoid FOMO buying at high prices when the FVG is not yet filled. Prioritise trading at clear reaction zones (OB, FVG edge). Reduce volume when entering counter-trend orders to preserve capital. 💬 Conclusion After a steep rise, gold is entering a value rebalancing phase . The current market structure leans towards a short-term technical retracement before continuing the main upward trend. If the 4,050 – 4,060 USD zone reacts well, gold may soon rebound and aim for the 4,150 – 4,180 USD zone. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Short-term sell when price reacts at FVG. Wait to buy at OB Buy Zone when there is a confirmed bullish signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD – Sharp Pullback After Hitting New ATHMarket Context: Gold has seen a steep intraday drop after hitting a fresh all-time high at 4,179 USD/oz, extending beyond the morning target of 4,170–4,172. The move likely reflects profit-taking amid broader market caution, as the US Dollar strengthened and GBP fell sharply, indirectly weighing on XAUUSD. Silver also followed the correction, down over 2%, trading near 51 USD/oz after peaking at 53.60 earlier. Despite this drop, the overall market sentiment remains defensive — both metals are still up about 2% for the week, suggesting this is a technical retracement, not a full trend reversal. Technical Outlook (M30): Price has broken below the short-term rising channel and is now retesting key liquidity areas. Watch the 4,134 – 4,135 zone for a potential retest (50% pullback) before continuation toward lower buy zones. End Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,165 – 4,170 Retest Zone (50% Down): 4,134 – 4,135 CP Buy Zone / Fibo 0.618: 4,052 – 4,054 OBS Buy Zone: 4,000 – 4,005 Trading Plan: 🔹 Sell Setup (Correction Play): Entry: 4,134 – 4,136 Stop Loss: 4,142 Take Profit: 4130 - 4125 - 4120 - 4110 - 4100 - ??? 🔹 Buy Setup (Reaction Zone): Entry 1: 4,052 – 4,054 (Fibo 0.618 Confluence) Stop Loss: 4,044 Take Profit: 4056 - 4060 - 4065 - 4070 - 4080 - 4090 - ??? Summary: Gold’s sharp drop after a new ATH signals a short-term correction phase while the broader bullish trend stays intact. A pullback toward 4,052 or even 4,000 could attract buy-side liquidity before any recovery. Keep an eye on 4,135 for a potential retest before continuation. 📊 What’s your view — is this just a healthy retracement or the start of a deeper correction? 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for precise intraday setups and structure-based analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAU/USD – Liquidity Cleared, Gold Reloads for the Next Breakout🔍 Market Context This morning, gold price (XAU/USD) experienced a classic liquidity sweep : The price surpassed the previous high of 4058 , touched 4060 , wicked strongly , and short-term corrected – a textbook “liquidity hunt” by major funds. After this drop, the price recovered back to the old ATH zone (4055 – 4060) . This indicates that short-term sellers have weakened , and buyers are reclaiming the crucial structure zone . Therefore, selling strategy is no longer optimal , instead, the market is preparing for a re-accumulation – next breakout. 💎 Technical Analysis Current ATH: 4060 USD Previous High: 4058 USD This morning's liquidity sweep “cleared out” liquidity above, paving the way for a re-accumulation phase before the next rise. The zone 4048 – 4052 is acting as a retest zone – if it holds, this could be the “launchpad” for a breakout to higher price zones. Overall Structure: still bullish , no signs of medium-term reversal. ⚙️ Key Price Zones Retest Zone: 4048 – 4052 → support zone after the sweep, where the price might bounce back. Breakout Zone: 4065 – 4070 → zone confirming buyers regain dominance. Extended Target: 4090 – 4100 USD. Invalidation Zone: below 4040 USD → if breached, the short-term bullish structure will weaken. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Buy Continuation Scenario – Buy with the main trend Wait for the price to retest the 4048 – 4052 zone , observe bullish candle reactions or confirmation signals (Engulfing, Rejection). Open a buy order upon confirmation of holding the support zone. Target: 4065 → 4090 USD. Stop Loss: below 4040 USD. ➡️ This is a trend-following scenario, with the highest probability when the market has completed the liquidity sweep and is re-accumulating. 2️⃣ Buy Breakout Scenario – Buy on confirmed breakout If the price breaks and closes above 4065 , it signals that major funds have returned. Open buy stop or limit retest breakout around 4065 – 4070. Extended Target: 4090 → 4100 USD. Stop Loss: below 4050 USD. ➡️ This scenario suits momentum traders, avoiding the risk of “fake breakout” by waiting for clear confirmation. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not sell against the trend at the ATH zone, as liquidity above has been taken. Maintain reasonable volume when trading around the peak zone. Prioritize buying when there is confirmation of the bullish structure holding the 4050 zone . 💬 Conclusion This morning's liquidity sweep has shaken out weak hands , while helping gold pave the way for the next rise . Currently, the price is re-accumulating around the old peak zone 4055 – 4060 , and if the zone 4048 – 4052 continues to hold, there is a high possibility that gold will break out to the 4090 – 4100 USD zone in the upcoming sessions. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Wait to buy at the support zone or buy when the price breaks above 4065. Avoid selling against the trend now – the risk is very high as major funds have shifted to the accumulation phase.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent