XAUUSD — Lower Demand Buy Setup
Gold is trading around $4,027 after extending its correction from the $4,165 area. The macro backdrop remains cautious as a firm US dollar and expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy continue to limit upside momentum in the non-yielding metal.
The FOMC decision is scheduled later today, followed by the press conference, while US Q2 GDP and June PCE data are due on July 30. These events could create sharp volatility around the marked liquidity levels, making confirmation especially important.
SMC View
Price has broken below the rising trendline and remains under short-term selling pressure beneath the $4,065–$4,077 retracement zone. This means buying around the current price would be premature while sellers still control the immediate structure.
The $3,960.862–$3,983.870 lower demand area is the main decision zone. A sweep into this region could collect sell-side liquidity before a recovery, but buyer control must be confirmed through bullish rejection followed by a lower-timeframe MSS or CHOCH.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold extends into the $3,960.862–$3,983.870 demand area, sweeps the recent lows and forms a clear bullish rejection. A lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $3,960.862–$3,983.870 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below $3,960.862 and the sweep low
TP1: $4,020–$4,030
TP2: $4,050–$4,060
TP3: $4,065–$4,077
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,026.575
Main buy zone: $3,960.862–$3,983.870
Retracement resistance: $4,065–$4,077
Higher resistance: $4,115
Invalidation: Acceptance below $3,960.862
Confirmation: Liquidity sweep with bullish MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The buy bias is focused on a confirmed reaction from the lower demand area, not an immediate entry near the current price. Gold may first extend lower while the broken trendline and $4,065–$4,077 zone remain resistance.
If buyers defend $3,960.862–$3,983.870 and confirm a bullish structure shift, price could recover toward $4,020 and the upper retracement zone. Acceptance below $3,960.862 would invalidate the setup.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long