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SHYAMMETL & RPSGVENT - Cup & Handle Breakout!!SHYAMMETL Following an upward trend, the stock price encountered resistance around the 740 level, resulting in a correction that brought the price down to the 530 level, where it established support. Subsequently, the price entered a consolidation phase before successfully breaking through its trendline resistance. With a surge, the stock price climbed back to its previous resistance level but faced rejection once more. After a period of consolidation just below this resistance level, the price ultimately broke out with significant volume support. During this time, a cup & handle pattern emerged, and with this breakout, that pattern was also surpassed. If the price can hold above this breakout point, we could witness another rally in the days ahead. RPSGVENT After a tough rejection around the 840 level, the price started to decline. Once it successfully broke through the trendline resistance, the stock price jumped back to its earlier resistance level but was rejected again. After a period of consolidation just beneath that resistance level, the price has finally made a breakthrough recently, supported by substantial volume. A cup and handle pattern formed during this period, and with the breakout, that pattern was also exceeded. If the price remains above this breakout level, there could be more upward movement.
NSE:SHYAMMETLLong
by GoodluckCapital
BALRAMCHINI & MPHASIS Showing High Rise in Future OIBalrampur Chini The stock price saw a notable decline after dropping beneath the Rising Wedge pattern. Subsequently, it entered an extended phase of consolidation, during which it formed an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. After the breakout, the price surged initially but then experienced a short consolidation period before breaking out again. This movement also shows a breakout from the Rounding Bottom pattern, which is allowing the stock price to go up even higher. Mphasis The stock price is currently in a strong consolidation phase. The chart shows that an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern is developing, suggesting that this phase might end soon and the price could rise after a major breakout. To see an upward movement, the price needs to break through the 3,100 level and stay above it.
NSE:BALRAMCHINLong
by GoodluckCapital
Federal Bank vs Karur Vysya Bank: Which is the bettr investment?The Bank Nifty NSE:BANKNIFTY stands at the 50,500 level, reflecting a decline of approximately 5.3% from its all-time high. When evaluating private banks, HDFC NSE:HDFCBANK , Axis NSE:AXISBANK , ICICI NSE:ICICIBANK , and Kotak Mahindra NSE:KOTAKBANK typically emerge as top contenders for investment. However, in the mid to small-cap arena, Federal Bank and Karur Vysya Bank have shown remarkable resilience and performance over the past few months, outpacing the broader banking sector. Let’s delve into some crucial factors that can guide us in determining the most promising investment opportunity at this moment! Market Capitalization ● Federal Bank NSE:FEDERALBNK - ₹ 49,883 Cr. ● Karur Vysya Bank NSE:KARURVYSYA - ₹ 17,459 Cr. Relative Strength ● The chart clearly illustrates that the Bank Nifty has delivered an impressive return on investment of approximately 15% over the past year. However, Federal Bank and Karur Vysya Bank have far surpassed this figure, achieving remarkable returns of around 54% and 82%, respectively. This indicates that these two banks are currently excelling far beyond the overall bank index. Cost of Liabilities ● The liabilities cost for Karur Vysya Bank is at 4.8%, notably lower than Federal Bank's 5.14%. This indicates that Karur Vysya Bank has a greater ability to secure funds compared to Federal Bank. CASA Ratio ● The CASA ratio, which measures the proportion of deposits in current and savings accounts to total deposits, is a crucial indicator for banks. A higher CASA ratio signifies a reduced cost of funds, as banks typically do not pay interest on current account deposits, and the interest rates on savings accounts are generally quite low, around 3-4%. ● In this instance, the CASA ratios stand at 30.39% for Karur Vysya Bank and 29.56% for Federal Bank, highlighting Karur Vysya Bank's superior position over Federal Bank. Non-performing Asset (NPA) Analysis ● Over the past four years, the net non-performing assets (NPA) for these two banks have seen a remarkable decline. ● In the latest quarter, Karur Vysya Bank reports a net NPA of just 0.4, while Federal Bank follows closely with a net NPA of 0.6. Total Provisions ● Discussing the NPA without considering the overall provisions presents an incomplete picture. Both banks have experienced a notable decline in this crucial factor. ● For Federal Bank, the total provisioning for FY24 is only 196 crore, a stark reduction from 750 crore in FY23. Similarly, Karur Vysya Bank's total provisioning for FY24 stands at 728 crore, down from 1,039 crore in FY23. Net Interest Margins (NIM) ● Karur Vysya Bank boasts a superior net interest margin (NIM) of 3.75, significantly outpacing the Federal Bank's NIM of 2.87. ● A NIM below 3 is generally viewed as unfavorable for banks. highlighting the strength of Karur Vysya Bank in this key metric. Advances Growth (%) Analysis ● An increase in advances growth signifies a bank's ability to efficiently provide loans. The 20.4% rise in advances for Federal Bank surpasses the 16.68% growth seen at Karur Vysya Bank, showcasing a more robust lending capability. Valuation ● PE Ratio ➖Federal Bank's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 12.4, which exceeds its 1-year median PE of 9.0. Compared to the industry average PE of 11.83, this suggests that the stock is not excessively overvalued. ➖On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank has a current PE of 10.2, which is marginally above its 1-year median PE of 9.8. Given the industry PE of 11.83, this indicates that Karur Vysya Bank is significantly undervalued. ➖When analyzing the PE ratios, it becomes clear that Karur Vysya Bank holds a more advantageous position. ● Intrinsic Value ➖The Federal Bank is currently trading at ₹204, while its intrinsic value stands at ₹228, indicating that the stock is undeniably undervalued at this time. ➖On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank's market price is ₹217, but with an intrinsic value of only ₹146, it clearly shows that the stock is currently overvalued. Technical Aspects ● From a technical standpoint, both stocks exhibit a similar pattern and appear to be currently overextended. Any pullbacks could provide a valuable opportunity to take positions. Conclusion ● Upon evaluating all the key factors, it is evident that Karur Vysya Bank NSE:KARURVYSYA is in a more advantageous position than Federal Bank NSE:FEDERALBNK ; however, this does not imply that Federal Bank is struggling. Both banks offer promising investment prospects. As the economy grows, a fundamentally strong bank is expected to consistently surpass the overall banking sector.
NSE:FEDERALBNK
by GoodluckCapital
3
WOCKPHARMA: W pattern breakout may drive the price higher! The 1700-1800 range has acted as a formidable barrier for this stock, with the price faced rejection at these levels on two separate occasions. After experiencing a significant downturn, the price eventually found support around the 135 level, led the price to a period of consolidation. During this time, the stock developed a Double Bottom pattern. Following a substantial gap, it successfully broke out of the Double Bottom pattern with strong trading volume and is now positioned just above that breakout level. At present, the stock is trading at nearly half its all-time high, making it an appealing option right now.
NSE:WOCKPHARMALong
by GoodluckCapital
2
Welspun Corp could excel in your Investment PortfolioInvestment Advice by Gooodluck Capital (SEBI Registered) Buy Welspun Corp NSE:WELCORP ● Buy Range (1) - CMP (current market price) ● Buy Range (2) - 660 - 665 ● Buy Range (3) - 620 - 630 ● Target - 960 - 970 ● Stoploss - below 500 ● Potential Return - 50 - 52% --------------------------------------- Approx investment period 18 - 24 months Company Overview Welspun Corp Limited manufactures and sells steel pipes, coatings, plates, and coils in the US, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and India. The company offers helically, longitudinally, and electric resistance welded pipes, pig iron and ductile iron pipes, billets, thermo mechanically treated rebars, stainless steel pipes, tubes, and bars. Its products are used in various industries, including oil, gas, water transmission, infrastructure, and defense. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Mumbai, India. Sector - Iron & Steel Technical Analysis (1) In January 2008, the stock faced significant resistance around the 500 level, leading to a substantial price correction. (2) Over time, it established a support base near the 45 level, from which it began to rebound, climbing back towards the 300 level. (3) However, the stock struggled to break past the 300 threshold and eventually retreated to its former support. (4) Following this, it entered an extended phase of consolidation until it finally broke through the 300 level in July 2023. (5) This pivotal moment propelled the stock into strong upward momentum, culminating in a multi-year breakout at the 500 mark after nearly 16 years. (6) Subsequently, the stock not only maintained this breakout level but has also begun to steadily rise. Entry, Target & Stop-loss ● Entry with Capital allocation strategy (1) consider adding 40% of your desired quantity at the current market price. (2) The second buying opportunity will be in the 660-665 range, where you can also add another 40% of your quantity. (3) If the price dips to the 620-630 range, that will present the best buying opportunity. Make sure to reserve 20% of your quantity to take advantage of this level. ● Target Chart analysis indicates a promising upside potential of above 50% for this stock from the current level, with a target around the 960 to 970. There is also a strong likelihood that the stock could exceed this target. ● Stoploss It is crucial to implement a strict stop-loss below the 500 level, as we anticipate that the stock may encounter challenges if it drops to this point. Fundamental Analysis ● Stock Valuation ● (1) Intrinsic Value ➖ The current price-to-earnings ratio for the stock is 14.5. ➖ The median price-to-earnings ratio for the stock over the past year stands at 15.4, while the earnings per share for the trailing twelve months is 45.55. ➖ This leads us to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock as follows: 15.4 * 45.55 is equals to 701.47. ➖ With the current market price hovering around 695, which is below the intrinsic value of 701, it clearly indicates that the stock is considerably undervalued right now. (2) P/B Ratio The present PB ratio for this stock stands at 3.06, indicating a slightly high valuation but not reaching overvalued territory. ● Debt Analysis ● (1) The company's current debt is Rs. 1,949 crore, which is quite minimal compared to its market capitalization of Rs. 17,249 crore. (2) With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.35, it’s evident that the debt level is relatively low for this type of capital-intensive business, providing the company with the flexibility to secure additional funding as needed. (3) A glance at the balance sheet reveals a significant reduction in debt, dropping from Rs. 3,381 crore last year to the current Rs. 1,949 crore. ● Revenue Break-up ● (1) Product wise break-up The company generates its revenue through three primary product categories: ➖ HSAW Pipe, which accounts for approximately 76% of the total revenue, ➖ LSAW Pipe, contributing close to 15% of the total revenue, ➖ ERW Pipe, responsible for about 8% of the total revenue. (2) Location wise break-up The company derives approximately 54% of its revenue from India. Additionally, Welspun Corp. operates facilities in the USA and Saudi Arabia, contributing around 8.6% and 34.2% to its overall revenue, respectively. ● Profit & Loss Analysis ● (1) Over the past three years, this stock has achieved an outstanding compounded annual growth rate of 34% in sales. (2) The cumulative profit increase over the past three years has been an impressive 21%, indicating a strong upward trend. (3) The profit margin has seen a significant boost, rising to 9% from 5% YoY. For the fiscal year 2024, the growth in earnings per share is striking, skyrocketing to 42.41 from 7.90 in fiscal year 2023. ● Cash Flow Analysis ● Operating cash flow has seen a remarkable surge, soaring to 1,306 crore from a negative 185 crore in FY23. ● Shareholding Pattern ● (1) As of the June 2024 quarter, the promoters own a notable 50.03% stake in the company. (2) Goldman Sachs possesses a notable 10.51% share in the company, reflecting a slight decline from 10.70% in March 2024. (3) Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have reduced their stakes since the previous quarter, yet they still hold over 9%, which remains quite significant. ● Conclusion ● The steel industry in India is set for expansion, bolstered by new government initiatives. Lower import duties on essential raw materials, combined with heightened public investment in infrastructure and housing, are anticipated to greatly enhance the sector's performance. Therefore, we are excited to see how Welspun Corp will thrive in the near future.
NSE:WELCORPLong
by GoodluckCapital
1
Cera is on a bull run, chart indicates further rise in price!Weekly Chart The stock has been experiencing a strong upward trend, consistently pushing its highs and lows to new heights. We've noticed that the bullish pole and flag pattern appeared twice in a row, indicated a solid presence of buyers in this stock. Recently, a breakout occurred on the weekly chart with high trading volume, suggesting that the price is set to rise again. Daily Chart Following a notable rejection around the 9,600 mark, the stock experienced a considerable correction. The formation of a Double Bottom pattern signaled a reversal in the downtrend, leading to a robust upward movement. This impressive rally brought the price back to its former resistance level, but it struggled to break through, leading to a period of consolidation just beneath that threshold. In an unexpected turn, the stock gapped up and successfully surpassed its immediate resistance, maintaining its position above this critical level. With trading volume on the rise, there is a promising outlook for a significant upward surge in the stock price.
NSE:CERALong
by GoodluckCapital
Banknifty is at a key support level—will it rebound? In recent months, the bank index has been on a remarkable upward trajectory, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. After reaching an all-time peak close to 53,350 (specifically at 50,358), the bank index experienced a correction. At present, the index is hovering around a significant support level of 49,750, which also aligns with the trendline support visible on the chart. There is a strong expectation that the bank index will bounce back from this point and resume its upward trend. However, if this support is broken, the next level to watch will be around 46,000 to 46,300. To regain its bullish momentum, the index must overcome the immediate resistance located between 53,000 and 53,350.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
NATCO PHARMA: A Multiyear Breakout Set to Double Your Investment Investment Advice by Goodluck Capital (SEBI Registered) Buy Natco Pharma NSE:NATCOPHARM Buy Range- 1210 - 1220 Target- 1950 - 1960 Potential Return- 60-62% Approx investment period 12 - 14 months TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NSE:NATCOPHARM (1) Back in 2017, Natco Pharma encountered several rejections around the 1,050 level, leading to a subsequent decline. (2) The 500 level has emerged as a crucial support point, allowing the stock to bounce back from this threshold. (3) Although the stock made an attempt to surpass its trendline resistance in July 2021, it ultimately fell short, resulting in another correction before finding support at the 500 level once more. (4) Since March 2023, the stock has been on an upward trajectory, successfully breaking through the resistance level in July 2024. Following this significant multi-year breakout , there is a strong expectation that the stock will remain above the breakout zone, paving the way for a robust upward rally. ● ENTRY & EXIT LEVELS - Look for the best buy levels between 1,210 and 1,220, as this is also the breakout level. However, if the stock begins to consolidate at that level and subsequently breaks out, the upper boundary of this consolidation could present another lucrative entry point. - Based on the chart analysis, it appears that there is a 60% upside potential for this stock, hovering around the 1,950-1,960 level. Moreover, there is a possibility that the stock may surpass this level. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS NSE:NATCOPHARM ● PE RATIO - The stock's current PE stands at 16.9, slightly higher than the 1-year median PE of 14.2 but lower than the 5-year median PE of 26.3. - With an industry PE of 36.6, the stock appears undervalued. ● PB RATIO - The present PB ratio for this stock stands at 3.96, indicating a slightly high valuation but not reaching overvalued territory. ● DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO - The company's debt to equity ratio of 0.06 indicates that it is nearly debt-free. ● PROFIT & LOSS ANALYSIS - Over the last three years, this stock has experienced a remarkable compounded annual sales growth rate of 25%. - The cumulative profit increase over the past three years has been an impressive 49%, indicating a strong upward trend. - The profit margin has seen a significant boost, rising to 44% from 35% YoY. - The EPS growth for FY24 is remarkable, soaring to 77.5 compared to just 39 in FY23. ● CASH FLOW ANALYSIS - There is a substantial increase in operating cash flow, jumping by almost 43% to 1,212 crore from 849 crore in FY23. ● SHAREHOLDING PATTERN - The promoters have consistently held their stakes at 49.71% over the past three quarters. - Over the last four quarters, FIIs have been steadily increasing their investments, in contrast to DIIs who have been offloading their stakes.
Editors' picks
NSE:NATCOPHARMLong
by GoodluckCapital
5
Big Breakout Alert! Negative Momentum in GODREJPROP & ESCORTSGODREJPROP The stock's price has been following an upward trend within a parallel channel. Recently, the stock broke through the lower boundary of the channel with a powerful bearish candle. With pessimistic market sentiment, it is anticipated that the stock price will continue to correct, presenting a chance to take a short position. ESCORTS Following the emergence of the bullish Pole & Flag pattern, the stock experienced a significant upward surge backed by robust momentum. After reaching an all-time high close to the 4,400 level, the stock retraced and eventually formed a Double Top pattern signaling a potential bearish trend. A recent breach of the pattern's neckline to the downside suggests further downside potential for the stock.
NSE:GODREJPROPShort
by GoodluckCapital
DIVISLAB and CHAMBLFERT showing high rise in Future OIDIVISLAB The price has been stuck in a tight range for over a year. Then it broke through its resistance level. Since then, the price has stayed above that point and is rising steadily. A breakout has occurred, and the stock price continues to climb CHAMBLFERT The stock price was gradually rising within a parallel channel. After breaking out of the channel, there was a significant price surge followed by a period of consolidation. Now, the price is attempting to surpass its resistance and continue moving upwards.
NSE:DIVISLABLong
by GoodluckCapital
Realty & Auto: Massive sell-off opens up a chance for shorting!REALTY Following an impressive bull run, the index has begun to consolidate and has taken the shape of a Rounding Top pattern. With significant selling pressure, the index is currently hovering around its trendline support level, which also happens to be the neckline of the Rounding Top pattern. If the trendline is breached, we could potentially witness a correction in the real estate sector. This sell-off presents an opportunity to take short positions in stocks like DLF, Godrej Properties etc. AUTO The automotive industry has experienced a significant increase and is one of the key sectors contributing to the strong rally of Nifty. Following a period of consolidation, a breakout occurred but the index encountered a notable rejection at its all-time high. Following a significant gap, the auto index dropped and is anticipated to decline even further. Given this situation, there is a chance to open short positions in certain stocks such as M&M, Escorts etc.
NSE:CNXREALTYShort
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Pharma: Displaying Strength at the Summit(1) The price has been consistently trending upwards over the past year. (2) Following the breakout of the Pole & Flag pattern, the price surged sharply. (3) Subsequently, the price entered an accumulation phase and began consolidating within a Box pattern, which is a positive sign after a strong rally. (4) After 3 months of consolidation, the price finally broke out and started moving upwards. (5) The price is currently at its all-time high and appears poised to continue rising.
NSE:CNXPHARMA
by GoodluckCapital
4
ICICIPRULI & DEEPAKNTR - Breakthrough of the Rounding Bottom ICICI PRUDENTIAL The stock experienced an upward trend, forming an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern that suggested a bearish outlook. Following a breakdown, the stock price fell sharply and entered a consolidation phase. During this period, the stock exhibited progressively smaller price fluctuations, establishing a series of consolidation bases, each one tighter than the last, formation of a Volatility Contraction Pattern. After breaking through this phase, the price reached an all-time high and is now set to climb even further. DEEPAK NITRITE During the upward trend, the stock price established a Pole & Flag pattern, signaling a continuation of the trend. However, following the breakout, the price underwent a significant consolidation phase, resulting in the formation of a Rounding Bottom pattern. Recently, a breakout has taken place, indicating that the price is poised for an upward movement.
NSE:ICICIPRULILong
by GoodluckCapital
1
Breakout Stocks to Keep An Eye On - Nykaa & Balrampur ChiniNYKAA The stock had been experiencing a significant consolidation period, during which it created an Ascending Triangle pattern. Following a breakout, the price initially surged but encountered resistance around the 195 level, leading to a sharp pullback. Subsequently, the stock price began to rise again but met resistance at the 187 level this time. After a brief consolidation, it developed a Cup & Handle pattern. Recently, a powerful breakout occurred, backed by substantial trading volume, indicating that the price is poised for a significant upward movement. BALRAMPUR CHINI The stock price experienced a significant pullback after it fell below the Rising Wedge pattern. Following this, it entered a prolonged consolidation period, during which it developed an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. After the breakout, the price initially soared but underwent a brief consolidation once more before breaking out again. This movement also marks a breakout from the Rounding Bottom pattern, suggesting substantial upside potential for the stock.
NSE:NYKAALong
by GoodluckCapital
Momentum Trading Picks - Alembic Pharma & Quess Corp.Alembic Pharma The stock encountered several rejections around the 1,130 level, leading to a significant correction in price. Eventually, it found support near the 460 level and began to climb upwards. During this upward movement, a Bullish Pole & Flag pattern emerged in the stock price chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the trend. Following a breakout, the price trended upwards with a minor pullback before recently achieving a breakthrough with strong volume support. Quess Corp The price had been trending upwards within a parallel channel until it broke below, leading to a correction. After that, the stock underwent a consolidation phase before gradually moving upwards. A reversal in the downtrend was indicated by the formation of an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern during this period. The recent strong breakout suggests that the price is poised to continue its upward movement.
Editors' picks
NSE:APLLTDLong
by GoodluckCapital
4
Get ready for a price surge with Dr Reddy & TTK Prestige!DRREDDY After the market crash in March 2020, the stock began a steady upward movement and formed a Bullish Pennant pattern. After breaking out, the price surged and encountered resistance multiple times near the 5,550 level. Consequently, the stock price experienced a significant drop and entered a prolonged consolidation phase. During this phase, an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern emerged on the chart. Most recently, a breakout has occurred, causing the stock to move higher. TTKPRESTIG The stock price has developed a Head & Shoulder pattern on the weekly chart. After the pattern breakdown, the price underwent a significant consolidation period and created a Double Bottom pattern, suggesting a potential reversal in the trend. By breaking above the pattern's neckline, the price is now moving upwards with a substantial potential for gains.
NSE:DRREDDYLong
by GoodluckCapital