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Governmentbondyields

IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIGB 10Y has seen one of the strongest rally for the week, falling 21 bps for the week, amid the hopes of the US-Iran peace deal, even though attacks on Lebanon has continued by Israel which is against one of the ten points truce deal proposed by the Iran. As the peace talks have failed over the weekend, I expect the volatility to continue this week in the markets. Further, Crude oil fall and rupee strengthening have supported the yields amid the possible truce deal. For the coming week, I expect 6.88-6.90% will continue to act as a resistance level, with 6.78-6.80% beyond this. On the other side, 7.00% will act as a first support level, 7.06% beyond that and 7.12-7.15% further.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Monthly UpdateIndia’s 10‑year government bond yield (IGB) has seen one of the worst months since January 2018, closing around 6.96% and rising by 30 bps over the week. The ongoing US-Iran war raised concerns around fiscal deficit and inflation numbers due to raising crude oil prices and supply shortage in natural gas. The first half of the month, yields got support from RBI in terms of OMO purchases amounting to Rs. 1.76 Lakh Crore. During the second half of the month, RBI was out of the market and fiscal deficit concerns from excise duty cut have spiked up the yields. It touched 7.00% level during the month, which is multi-year trendline level as well. For the April month, I expect yields to trade broadly in the range of 6.75%-7.25%. 7.00%-7.03% will continue to act as key support level, any daily close above the trendline will cause the yields to rise toward 7.10% level, with 7.25% beyond this. On the other side, 6.88-6.90% will be key resistance zone, with 6.80% being the next resistance level.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateIndia’s 10‑year government bond yield (IGB) has seen one of the worst weeks in recent times, closing around 6.93% and rising by 17 bps over the week, as fiscal‑deficit fears have increased following the Indian government’s excise‑duty cut on OMCs. These concerns are primarily emanating from the ongoing U.S.–Iran war, which has led to supply‑risk worries for crude and natural gas. Although some relief has come in the form of Iran allowing Indian tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is still far from being out of crisis. IGB touched multi‑year trendline levels of 6.96% on Friday, which will remain a key resistance to watch. A breach of this level could push yields toward 7.05% and then 7.15%. On the downside, 6.87% will act as a key support level, with 6.80% beyond that.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateBonds have traded largely within a range of 6.69%–6.77% amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising oil prices, falling rupee, which are raising concerns around foreign reserves and inflation. With the RBI largely out of the market, geopolitical developments will play a major role in the coming week. 6.78% has been acting as a crucial level since February. A breach of this level is likely to push yields towards 6.88%. If geopolitical tensions cool off, yields can retrace towards 6.65%.
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99
IGB 10Y Weekly UpdateBonds have traded largely within a range of 6.64%-6.76%, amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising oil prices, and supply shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. RBI purchases of ₹57,000 Cr in the first week of March, along with OMO purchases of ₹50,000 Cr each on March 9 and 13, supported yields within this range—even as inflation fears from geopolitical tensions weighed heavily. For the coming week, bond yields are expected to trade in a similar range of 6.64%-6.78%. A breach of the 6.64% support level could drive yields toward 6.60%, which is likely if positive news emerges about a war stoppage or easing supply chain fears. Let me know your thoughts. DYOR
TVC:IN10Y
by jayaprakash99