Harmonic Patterns
Technical trading part 2Technical analysis is a trading strategy used by investors to identify new investment possibilities. To anticipate future price movements of stocks or other assets, for example, past price and volume data is studied and shown on graphic charts, where trends, patterns, and technical indicators can be identified.
ADX in trading The average directional index (ADX) is a technical indicator used by traders to determine the strength of a financial security's price trend. It helps them reduce risk and increase profit potential by trading in the direction of a strong trend.
The average directional index (ADX) is a technical analysis indicator used by some traders to determine the strength of a trend.
PCR in Trading However, no PCR can be considered ideal, but usually, a PCR below 0.7 is typically viewed as a strong bullish sentiment while a PCR more than 1 is usually considered as a strong bearish sentiment.
A high PCR indicates a bearish sentiment, as more traders buy puts, expecting the market to decline. Similarly, a low PCR suggests a bullish sentiment, with more traders buying calls in anticipation of a market rise.
PCR > 1: When the PCR is greater than 1, it suggests that there are more open put contracts than call contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment. Traders and investors anticipate the underlying asset's price to fall. PCR = 1: When the PCR is close to 1, it implies a balanced sentiment in the market.
Strength Index (RSI) IndicatorThe relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to detect overbought or oversold conditions in the price of that security.
The RSI is helpful for market participants in identifying trends. In a strong uptrend, the RSI typically stays between 40 and 90, with the 40-50 range acting as support. In a strong downtrend, the RSI ranges from 10 to 60, with the 50-60 range serving as resistance.
Database TradingWhen you trade options, you're essentially placing a bet on if a stock will decrease, increase or remain the same in value; how much it will deviate from its current price; and in what time those changes will occur. Based on those parameters, you can choose to enter into a contract to buy or sell a company's stock.
Trading options offers a number of benefits for an active trader: Options can offer high returns and do so over a short period, allowing you to multiply your money quickly if your wager is right. With options, it can cost less to get the same exposure to a stock's price movement than it does to buy the stock directly.
Advanced PCR (Put call Ratio) The Put Call Ratio (PCR) is a tool in the stock market to understand how investors feel about a stock or the market's future. It compares the number of put options to call options traded. More puts traded mean investors expect prices to fall (bearish). More calls traded mean investors expect prices to rise (bullish).
High PCR (> 1) - This indicates more put options are being traded than call options, suggesting a bearish sentiment, and traders expect the market to go down. Low PCR (< 1) - This indicates more call options are being traded than put options, suggesting a bullish sentiment, and traders expect the market to go up.
Technical Analysis Part - 4The MACD is a momentum indicator that can be used to anticipate changes in market sentiment. However, it is not foolproof: experienced traders look to other metrics, such as trading volume, for a more complete perspective on market sentiment.
Key Takeaways
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a popular momentum indicator that is used in technical analysis.
The MACD is calculated by comparing exponential moving averages in a security's price.
The MACD line is charted alongside a nine-day moving average of the MACD line, called the signal line, and a histogram representing the difference between these two curves.
Traders use the MACD histogram to anticipate changes in market momentum.
MACD analysis can still generate false price predictions. Experienced traders use additional metrics and fundamental analysis to support their forecasts.
DATABASE TRADING WITH OPTION CHAINOption chain data is the complete picture pertaining to option strikes of a particular stock or index in a single frame. In the Option chain frame, the strike price is at the center and all data pertaining to calls and puts on the same strike are presented next to each other.
Traders use an options chain to choose the specific option contracts that best align with their trading strategy. They can select options with the desired strike prices and expiration dates based on their market outlook. Options chains are crucial for assessing and managing risk.
Option TradingTo read an option chain, you can look for the following information:
Strike price: The price at which the stock is bought if the option is exercised
Premium: The price of the options contract, or the upfront fee paid by the investor
Expiry dates: The dates on which the option expires, which can affect the premium
Open interest (OI): The total number of outstanding option contracts that have not been settled
Implied volatility (IV): A percentage that indicates the expected price fluctuations, and the level of uncertainty or risk in the market
Bid: The best available price at which the option can be sold
Ask: The best available price at which the option can be purchased
Volume: The number of transactions that have occurred on the current trading day
Net change: The net change of LTP, where a positive change indicates a rise in price and an unfavorable change indicates a decrease in price
Bid qty: The number of buy orders for a specific strike price
Ask qty: The number of open sell orders for a specific strike price
Here are some other tips for reading an option chain:
The option chain is divided into two sections, calls and puts, with calls on the left and puts on the right
The current market price is displayed in the center
ITM call options are usually highlighted in yellow
Higher open interest usually indicates higher liquidity and market activity
Advanced MACD with Professionals The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator is a technical tool that helps traders identify entry and exit points for buying or selling securities. It's made up of three time series calculated from historical price data, and the metrics are highly adaptable: MACD series:
The main series Signal or average series: The second series Divergence series: The difference between the first two series Momentum Trading Otimize your MACD strategies with ... The MACD indicator is often displayed with a histogram that shows the distance between the MACD and its signal line. The histogram is positive when the faster EMA line is on top, and negative when it's on the bottom.
Here are some tips for using the MACD indicator: Buy or sell: Traders may buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, and sell when it crosses below. Understand moving averages: Moving averages tend to trail behind price movements, but the MACD can transform this into a trading strategy. Look at the difference between two moving averages: This shows how fast a trend is moving.
Institutional Database Trading #OptionTrading Option chain data is the complete picture pertaining to option strikes of a particular stock or index in a single frame. In the Option chain frame, the strike price is at the centre and all data pertaining to calls and puts on the same strike are presented next to each other.
Options trading is a type of financial trading that allows investors to buy or sell the right to purchase or sell an underlying asset at a fixed price, at a future date. Options trading operates on the basis that the buyer has the option to exercise the contract but is not under any obligation to do so.
Banknifty , Crude oil and Copper Divergence Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and a technical indicator move in opposite directions. It's a sign that the price of an asset may be reversing, and it can help traders recognize and react to price changes.
Here are some things to know about divergence:
#Types of divergence
There are two types of divergence: negative and positive. Negative divergence happens when the price of a security is rising, but an indicator is falling. Positive divergence happens when the price of a security is falling, but an indicator is rising.
#When to use divergence
Divergence can help traders make decisions like tightening stop-loss or taking a profit.
#How to confirm reversals
Divergence can occur over a long period of time, so traders can use other tools like trendlines and support and resistance levels to confirm reversals.
#When to use convergence
Convergence is when the price of an asset, indicator, or index moves in the same direction as a related asset, indicator, or index
Life of a Trader / Option's // StocksEmotional reactions
Overcoming your emotions is another hurdle you may encounter as a new trader. You may make impulsive decisions out of greed, fear, anger, frustration, or excessive optimism. This can lead to losses, which in turn can reduce your confidence.
To ensure you don't fall into the trap of your emotions, chalk out a detailed and rule-based strategy and try to follow it strictly. Review your trades regularly to learn from your mistakes and build stable trading behaviour. You can keep a trading journal and implement stop-loss orders to reduce emotional influence on your trading decisions.
Overtrading
Another common challenge that can come your way is the temptation to overtrade. You may feel tempted to overtrade to earn higher earnings or overcome losses quickly. However, more trades don’t necessarily translate into more money. Overtrading can increase your risk exposure and increase transaction costs.
To overcome the temptation to overtrading, you can set predefined limits on daily or weekly trades and take a break when you reach the limit. You must also ensure that you engage in trades that align with your strategy and do not prioritise quantity over quality.
Impatience
As a new trader, you may lack the patience to stick to your trading strategy, especially during market fluctuations. You may opt for premature exits if gains don't materialise as quickly as expected. However, success in trading does not come overnight. You must wait for the right opportunities and patiently endure losses and phases of stagnation.
A solution to this problem is to have a solid trading strategy with clear entry and exit criteria. Have faith in your plan and give it the time to work. Avoid changing your strategy too often. Once you have a solid strategy, be patient, wait for the right time and grab your opportunity.
Poor risk management
The stock market is highly volatile and unpredictable. One day, a stock can rise by 20% and plummet suddenly the following day. Such frequent changes in the price of an asset can overwhelm you. It also makes it challenging to plan your strategy and manage risks. You may feel tempted to chase high returns and take excessive risks. However, this can wipe out your capital in no time. This is why risk management is important in trading.
Make sure your trades align not only with your strategy but also your risk profile. Before placing a trade, analyse your risk-per-trade and reward-to-risk ratio. Diversify investments to spread risks across different sectors and assets to protect your capital. Include clear entry and exit points and an emergency way in your strategy. Using stop-loss orders can also help tackle risks and minimise losses.
Conclusion
The stock market is both alluring and daunting. Without proper knowledge and skills, you may incur losses and even quit prematurely if things don't go as expected. However, understanding the challenges beginners often face and learning to overcome them can illuminate your path to success.
Histogram(MACD) Divergence Trading Let us discuss the MACD indicator strategy and histogram. I know being a chartist you are familiar with this tool.
Hence I hope this will be a revision for you. Assuming you already know this topic, you should know that MACD Histogram is derived from MACD.
To me, it is the effect of MACD (cause), without which MACD Histogram would not have been born. I hope you can relate it to the previous paragraph. If not, no problem. Carry on reading.
But before proceeding further I would request you to recapitulate MACD (moving average convergence divergence). Thanks for converging your thoughts with that of mine. I am glad. It will help me to explain this article without taking the additional burden.
MACD Histogram Peak-Trough Divergence
By now you must have understood how the histogram dances to the tunes of prices. If one looks at it closely then one can easily identify the divergences.
You will notice that a peak and trough divergence is formed with two peaks or two troughs in the MACD Histogram.
Usually, it can be segregated into two parts, i.e. bullish peak and trough divergence and bearish peak and trough divergence.
Alright, I will explain you in short.
Bullish Peak-Trough Divergence
It is formed when MACD makes a lower low and on the contrary, MACD-Histogram makes a higher low. One thing you should keep in mind, i.e., well-defined troughs define the health of a bullish peak-trough divergence.
bullish peak trough divergence
Bearish Peak-Trough Divergence
It is formed when MACD makes a higher high and on the contrary MACD Histogram makes a lower high.
One thing you should keep in mind, i.e., well-defined peaks define the health of a bearish peak-trough divergence.
WaveTalks-Nifty-Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern at 16665This video discussed a bearish harmonic pattern that might be quietly sitting & hiding in the price structure if unfolds exactly holding below 16701.85 then the downside support could be 16510-16530 / Below 16500 for 16370-16390.
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Last Nifty Video Idea
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Hope you enjoy the video. Good Night!!!
NIFTY & BANKNIFTYNifty:
Monthly range 11350-10725
Weekly support 11050 resistance 11350/11475/11750
Daily support 11000/10850 resistance 11300
Hourly Butterfly at 11025, if it fails to hold then 10900 likely.
Bank Nifty:
21000 crucial level for any attempt to bounce/reverse back for 22700 and above that rally till 23750-24000
Nifty - BankNifty - USDINR - DOWDOW
Monthly Kijun has always been held since the Sub-Prime lows. If 25600-24800 gives way then 22700 would become a possible target
USD INR
Monthly has made a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD.
Weekly has done its minimum Dragon target, further sustaining above 74.75 would take it to 77 to complete its next Dragon target
Daily has also made a Bearish Harmonic AB=CD. Ideally sustaining below 74.25 would trigger a decline
BANK NIFTY
Monthly Kijun 28100-27400 crucial for upside.
Weekly has made a Bullish Harmonic Reciprocal AB=CD also, if that fails to hold then 26500 would become a possible target.
Daily has made a Bullish Harmonic Bat at FRI low
NIFTY
Monthly 1st support at FRI low if breached again then 10550 resistance 11200
Weekly 10850 needs to be held on closing basis else it opens for 10550 and then 9800. It also has a Bullish Reciprocal AB=CD at 10800-10750.
Daily has made a Bullish Harmonic Bat at FRI low.
For it to start reversing and moving up it needs to get above the following resistance lines 11050 / 11200 / 11500
NiftyNifty through the week was within a falling channel making Lower Lows and Lower Highs. At close today it came into the PRZ of 3 Bullish Harmonic Patterns, namely, Shark, Bat & Gartley. If it were to reverse from this level it needs to survive above 11940 for an hour at least. Then it could move all the way back to test the falling channel at 111975-12025. From that range (or on failure to hold 11885) we could expect the next set of 3 Bullish Harmonic Patterns. namely, Alt Shark, Bat & AB=CD get active between 11830-11860 to conclude this slanting channel trend