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Breakout & Breakdown Strategies in Trading1. Introduction Trading is not just about buying low and selling high—it’s about identifying when the market is ready to move decisively in a particular direction. Among the most powerful price action-based methods, Breakout and Breakdown strategies have earned their place as timeless tools in a trader’s arsenal. Breakout: When the price pushes above a significant resistance level or price consolidation zone, signaling potential bullish momentum. Breakdown: When the price falls below a significant support level or consolidation zone, signaling potential bearish momentum. The reason these strategies are so popular is simple: when price escapes a strong level, it often triggers a wave of orders—both from new traders entering the market and from existing traders closing losing positions. This can create explosive moves. 2. Understanding Market Structure Before diving into strategies, it’s important to understand how the market’s “architecture” works. 2.1 Support and Resistance Support is a price level where buying interest tends to emerge, preventing the price from falling further. Resistance is a price level where selling pressure tends to emerge, preventing the price from rising further. A breakout happens when resistance is breached, and a breakdown occurs when support is breached. 2.2 Consolidation Zones Markets often move sideways before a breakout or breakdown. These “tight” ranges reflect indecision. The tighter the range, the stronger the potential move after the breakout. 2.3 Market Participants Understanding who’s involved can help: Retail traders often chase moves. Institutions accumulate positions quietly during consolidation. Algorithmic traders may trigger breakouts with large volume spikes. 3. Market Psychology Behind Breakouts & Breakdowns Price movements are not just numbers; they reflect human emotions—fear, greed, and uncertainty. 3.1 Breakouts Traders waiting for confirmation jump in as soon as resistance breaks. Short sellers may cover their positions (buy to exit), adding buying pressure. Momentum traders and algorithms pile on, accelerating the move. 3.2 Breakdowns Long holders panic and sell when support breaks. Short sellers initiate fresh positions. Stop-loss orders below support get triggered, adding to the downward momentum. 3.3 False Breakouts/Breakdowns Not every breakout is genuine—sometimes price quickly returns inside the range. This is often due to: Low volume breakouts. Manipulative “stop-hunting” by large players. News events reversing sentiment. 4. Types of Breakout & Breakdown Setups 4.1 Horizontal Level Breakouts Price breaks a clearly defined horizontal resistance or support. Works best when levels are tested multiple times before the break. 4.2 Trendline Breakouts A downward sloping trendline break signals bullish potential. An upward sloping trendline break signals bearish potential. 4.3 Chart Pattern Breakouts Ascending Triangle → Breaks upward most often. Descending Triangle → Breaks downward most often. Flags/Pennants → Continuation patterns after a sharp move. Head and Shoulders → Breakdown after neckline breach. 4.4 Range Breakouts Price has been moving sideways; breaking the range signals a new directional trend. 4.5 Volatility Breakouts Using Bollinger Bands or ATR to identify when volatility expansion may trigger breakouts. 5. Technical Tools for Breakout & Breakdown Trading 5.1 Volume Analysis Genuine breakouts usually have above-average volume. A price breakout without volume can be a trap. 5.2 Moving Averages Breakouts above the 50-day or 200-day MA often attract attention. Crossovers can confirm breakouts. 5.3 Bollinger Bands Breakout beyond the upper band often signals bullish continuation. Breakdown beyond the lower band often signals bearish continuation. 5.4 Average True Range (ATR) Helps set stop-losses based on market volatility. Breakouts with ATR expansion are more reliable. 5.5 RSI & Momentum Indicators RSI crossing above 50 during a breakout supports bullishness. Divergences can warn against false moves. 6. Step-by-Step Breakout Trading Strategy Let’s break down a long breakout strategy: Identify Key Level Mark strong resistance levels or consolidation highs. Wait for Price to Approach Avoid preemptively entering; wait until price tests the level. Check Volume Confirmation Look for higher-than-average volume during the breakout candle. Entry Trigger Enter after a candle closes above resistance, not just a wick. Stop-Loss Placement Place SL below the breakout candle’s low or below the last swing low. Profit Targets First target: Equal to range height. Second target: Use trailing stop to capture more upside. 7. Step-by-Step Breakdown Trading Strategy For a short breakdown strategy: Identify Strong Support Multiple touches strengthen the level. Observe Price Action Watch for compression near support. Volume Confirmation High volume on breakdown increases reliability. Entry Enter after candle closes below support. Stop-Loss Above the breakdown candle high or last swing high. Profit Targets First: Range height projection. Second: Trail stop for extended moves. 8. Risk Management Breakout and breakdown trading is high-reward but also high-risk without proper risk controls. 8.1 Position Sizing Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade. 8.2 Avoid Overtrading Not every breakout is worth trading—quality over quantity. 8.3 Stop-Loss Discipline Never widen stops once placed. 8.4 Recognizing False Breakouts No volume surge. Price rejection at the breakout point. Sudden reversal candles (shooting star, hammer). 9. Advanced Tips for Success 9.1 Multi-Timeframe Analysis Confirm breakouts on higher timeframes for reliability. 9.2 Retest Entries Instead of chasing the breakout, wait for price to retest the broken level and bounce. 9.3 Combine With Indicators MACD crossovers, RSI breakouts, or Ichimoku Cloud confirmations can filter false signals. 9.4 Avoid News-Driven Breakouts These are often short-lived spikes unless supported by strong fundamentals. 10. Real-World Example Breakout Example Stock consolidates between ₹950–₹1000 for weeks. Volume surges as it closes at ₹1015. Entry at ₹1015, SL at ₹990. Price rallies to ₹1080 within days. Breakdown Example Nifty support at 19,800 tested thrice. Price closes at 19,750 with high volume. Short entry at 19,750, SL at 19,880. Price drops to 19,500. 11. Pros and Cons Pros: Captures explosive moves early. Works in all markets (stocks, forex, crypto). High reward-to-risk potential. Cons: False breakouts can be frustrating. Requires discipline to wait for confirmation. Volatility can trigger stop-losses before the real move. 12. Summary Table: Breakout vs Breakdown Feature Breakout (Long) Breakdown (Short) Key Level Resistance Support Volume Signal High volume on upward candle High volume on downward candle Stop-Loss Below breakout candle low Above breakdown candle high Target Range height or trend ride Range height or trend ride 13. Final Thoughts Breakout and breakdown strategies work because they align with the natural order flow of the market—when key levels are breached, they often trigger a flood of buying or selling activity. However, success depends heavily on patience, confirmation, and risk management. A trader who learns to differentiate between a true breakout and a false move has a powerful edge. By combining technical levels, volume analysis, and disciplined execution, breakout/breakdown trading can become a cornerstone strategy in any trading plan.
NSE:AXISBANKEducation
by TechnicalExpress
5
Algorithmic & AI-Powered Trading1. Introduction: The Shift from Manual to Machine For centuries, trading was purely a human skill — traders watched ticker tapes, read news, and relied on gut instinct. But as markets grew faster and more complex, human reaction time simply couldn’t keep up. Enter algorithmic trading — a world where trades are executed in milliseconds, strategies are tested on decades of data, and human bias takes a back seat. Over the past decade, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has supercharged this process. Now, trading systems not only follow pre-set rules but also learn from market data, adapt strategies in real time, and detect patterns invisible to human eyes. In 2025, over 70% of all equity trades in developed markets are algorithmic. In some markets, AI-powered systems handle more trading volume than humans. 2. What is Algorithmic Trading? At its core, algorithmic trading is: The use of computer programs to execute trades based on a defined set of rules and parameters. Key features: Rule-based execution: Trades are placed when certain conditions are met (e.g., price crosses moving average). Speed & automation: No waiting for human clicks; execution is near-instant. Backtesting: Strategies can be tested on historical data before risking real money. Scalability: Can handle hundreds of trades simultaneously. Example: If a stock’s 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average, buy 100 shares. If the reverse happens, sell. 3. What is AI-Powered Trading? AI-powered trading takes algorithms further: Instead of pre-programmed rules, AI systems can learn patterns, adapt strategies, and make predictions based on data. Core difference: Algorithmic trading = fixed rules. AI trading = adaptive, self-learning rules. AI capabilities in trading: Pattern recognition – spotting trends in price, volume, sentiment, or macro data. Predictive modeling – forecasting future price movements. Reinforcement learning – improving strategies based on feedback from trades. Natural Language Processing (NLP) – reading and interpreting news, social media, and financial reports. 4. Types of Algorithmic & AI Trading Strategies There’s a wide range of strategies — some decades old, others made possible only by modern AI. A. Trend-Following Strategies Based on technical indicators like Moving Averages, RSI, MACD. Goal: Ride the trend up or down until it shows signs of reversal. AI twist: Deep learning models can predict trend continuation probability. B. Mean Reversion Strategies Assumes prices will revert to an average over time. Example: If a stock is far above its 20-day moving average, short it; if far below, buy. AI twist: Machine learning models detect the optimal mean reversion window dynamically. C. Arbitrage Strategies Exploiting price differences between markets or instruments. Example: If a stock trades at ₹100 in NSE and ₹101 in BSE, buy low, sell high instantly. AI twist: AI can scan thousands of instruments and markets for fleeting arbitrage opportunities. D. Statistical Arbitrage Uses correlations between assets (pairs trading). Example: If Reliance and ONGC usually move together, but Reliance rallies while ONGC lags, trade expecting convergence. AI twist: AI can detect shifting correlations and adapt. E. High-Frequency Trading (HFT) Ultra-fast trades exploiting tiny inefficiencies. Requires low-latency infrastructure. AI twist: AI can dynamically adjust order placement to reduce slippage. F. Sentiment Analysis Trading Uses NLP to gauge market sentiment from news, tweets, blogs. Example: AI detects a surge in positive sentiment toward Tesla, triggering a buy. AI twist: Transformer-based NLP models (like GPT) can analyze sarcasm, tone, and context better than older keyword-based systems. G. Market Making Posting buy and sell orders to earn the bid-ask spread. Requires continuous price adjustment. AI twist: Reinforcement learning optimizes spread width for profitability. 5. Key Components of an Algorithmic/AI Trading System Building a profitable system is more than just coding a strategy. It needs an ecosystem: Market Data Feed Real-time & historical prices, volumes, order book data. AI needs clean, high-quality data to avoid bias. Signal Generation Algorithm or AI model generates buy/sell/hold signals. Could be purely quantitative or include sentiment and fundamentals. Execution Engine Sends orders to the exchange with minimal delay. AI can optimize execution to avoid market impact. Risk Management Module Position sizing, stop-loss levels, portfolio diversification. AI can dynamically adjust risk based on volatility. Backtesting Framework Tests strategy on historical data. Important: Avoid overfitting — making the model too perfect for past data but useless in the future. Monitoring & Maintenance Even AI needs human oversight. Models can degrade if market behavior shifts (concept drift). 6. Role of Machine Learning in Trading Machine Learning (ML) is the backbone of AI-powered trading. Popular ML techniques in trading: Supervised Learning – Train on historical prices to predict next-day returns. Unsupervised Learning – Cluster stocks with similar price behavior. Reinforcement Learning – Learn by trial and error in simulated markets. Deep Learning – Use neural networks to detect complex patterns in large datasets. Example: A neural network could take in: Price data Volume data News sentiment Macroeconomic indicators …and output a probability of the stock rising in the next 5 minutes. 7. Advantages of Algorithmic & AI Trading Speed – Executes in milliseconds. Accuracy – No fat-finger trade errors. No emotional bias – Sticks to the plan. Scalability – Monitors hundreds of assets. 24/7 markets – Especially useful in crypto trading. Pattern discovery – Finds relationships humans might miss. 8. Risks & Challenges Not everything is a profit paradise. A. Technical Risks System crashes Internet outages Latency issues B. Model Risks Overfitting to historical data Concept drift (market behavior changes) C. Market Risks Sudden news events (e.g., black swan events) Flash crashes caused by runaway algorithms D. Regulatory Risks Exchanges and regulators monitor algo trading to prevent manipulation. Some AI strategies might accidentally trigger market manipulation patterns. 9. Risk Management in AI Trading A robust system must: Use position sizing (risk only 1-2% of capital per trade). Place stop-loss & take-profit levels. Have circuit breakers to halt trading if unusual volatility occurs. Validate models regularly against out-of-sample data. 10. Backtesting & Optimization Before deploying: Data cleaning – Remove bad ticks, adjust for splits/dividends. Out-of-sample testing – Use unseen data to test robustness. Walk-forward testing – Periodically re-train and test. Monte Carlo simulations – Stress-test strategies under random conditions. 11. Real-World Applications Hedge Funds: Renaissance Technologies, Two Sigma. Banks: JPMorgan’s LOXM AI execution algorithm. Retail: Zerodha Streak, AlgoTrader. Crypto: AI bots analyzing blockchain transactions. 12. Future Trends in AI Trading Explainable AI – Making AI’s decision-making transparent. Hybrid human-AI teams – AI generates signals; humans validate. Quantum computing – Potentially breaking speed and complexity barriers. Multi-agent reinforcement learning – AI “traders” competing/cooperating in simulations. 13. Conclusion Algorithmic & AI-powered trading is no longer just a Wall Street tool — it’s accessible to retail traders, thanks to low-cost cloud computing, APIs, and open-source machine learning libraries. The key to success isn’t just having an algorithm — it’s about data quality, model robustness, disciplined risk management, and constant adaptation.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
2
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) & Liquidity Trading1. Introduction In financial markets, price does not move randomly — it’s influenced by the decisions of big players often called Smart Money. These players include institutional investors, hedge funds, prop firms, and high-frequency trading algorithms. Unlike retail traders, they have vast capital, deep research capabilities, and the ability to move markets. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is a modern trading framework that focuses on understanding how these institutions operate — where they enter, where they exit, and how they trap retail traders. A related idea is Liquidity Trading, which explains how Smart Money hunts for liquidity — areas in the market where many buy/sell orders are clustered. The price often moves to these zones before reversing. In short: Retail traders follow indicators and news. Smart Money follows liquidity and order flow. 2. The Core Principles of Smart Money Concepts SMC revolves around understanding the footprints left by institutional traders. 2.1 Market Structure Market structure refers to how price moves in swings — forming highs and lows. Bullish Structure: Higher Highs (HH) & Higher Lows (HL) Bearish Structure: Lower Highs (LH) & Lower Lows (LL) Structure Break (BOS): When price violates the previous high/low — signaling a potential trend change. Change of Character (CHOCH): Early sign of trend reversal when price breaks the first structural level in the opposite direction. 📌 Why it matters in SMC: Smart Money often shifts from accumulation to distribution phases through structure breaks. If you can read structure, you can anticipate reversals. 2.2 Order Blocks An Order Block is the last bullish or bearish candle before a strong price move in the opposite direction, usually caused by institutional order placement. Bullish Order Block (B-OB): Last down candle before price surges upward. Bearish Order Block (B-OB): Last up candle before price drops. 📌 Why it matters: Institutions leave these “footprints” because their large orders cannot be filled instantly. Price often revisits these zones to fill unexecuted orders before moving further. 2.3 Liquidity Pools Liquidity pools are areas where many stop-losses or pending orders are gathered. Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Above swing highs where buy stop orders and short stop-losses sit. Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Below swing lows where sell stop orders and long stop-losses sit. 📌 Why it matters: Smart Money drives price into these pools to trigger stop orders and gain enough liquidity to enter or exit large positions. 2.4 Fair Value Gaps (FVG) / Imbalances A Fair Value Gap is a price imbalance caused when market moves rapidly, leaving a gap in the price structure (often between candle wicks). 📌 Why it matters: Price often returns to fill these gaps before continuing the main trend, as Smart Money prefers balanced price action. 2.5 The “Smart Money Cycle” The market typically moves in this cycle: Accumulation – Institutions quietly build positions at key zones. Manipulation (Liquidity Grab) – Price fakes out retail traders by hitting stop losses or false breakouts. Distribution (Mark-up/Mark-down) – The true move begins as Smart Money pushes price strongly in the intended direction. 3. Liquidity Trading in Detail Liquidity trading focuses on identifying where liquidity is and predicting how price will move to capture it. 3.1 Why Liquidity Matters Large orders cannot be executed without enough liquidity. Institutions need retail traders' orders to fill their positions. Example: If a hedge fund wants to go long, they need sellers to provide liquidity. They might push the price down first, triggering stop-losses of buyers, to gather those sell orders before pushing price up. 3.2 Types of Liquidity Resting Liquidity: Stop-losses above/below swing highs/lows. Pending limit orders at support/resistance. Dynamic Liquidity: Orders entering the market as price moves (market orders). Session Liquidity: High liquidity periods like London Open, New York Open. 3.3 Liquidity Grab (Stop Hunt) A liquidity grab is when price briefly moves past a key level to trigger orders before reversing. Example: Retail sees resistance at 1.2000 in EUR/USD. Price spikes to 1.2005 (triggering breakout buys and stop-losses of shorts). Immediately reverses to 1.1950. 4. Combining SMC & Liquidity Trading The real power comes when you merge SMC concepts with liquidity zones. 4.1 Step-by-Step Process Identify Market Structure – Are we in bullish or bearish territory? Mark Liquidity Zones – Where are the obvious highs/lows where orders cluster? Spot Order Blocks – Look for institutional footprints. Watch for Liquidity Grabs – Did price sweep a high/low? Enter on Confirmation – Use BOS, CHOCH, or FVG fills for precise entries. Manage Risk – Stop-loss just beyond liquidity sweep zones. 4.2 Example Trade Context: Bullish trend on daily chart. Liquidity Zone: Sell-side liquidity just below recent swing low. Event: Price dips below swing low during London session (stop hunt), then aggressively pushes upward. Entry: After BOS on 15-min chart. Stop-loss: Below liquidity sweep low. Target: Next buy-side liquidity pool above. 5. The Psychology Behind SMC Institutions know retail traders: Use obvious support/resistance. Place stop-losses just beyond these zones. Chase breakouts without confirmation. Smart Money uses this predictability to engineer liquidity events — moving price to trap one side before reversing. 📌 Key Insight: Price doesn’t move because of “magic” — it moves because Smart Money needs liquidity to execute orders. 6. Common Mistakes Traders Make Blindly Trading Order Blocks – Not all OBs are valid; context is crucial. Ignoring Higher Timeframes – A valid OB on 5-min might be irrelevant in daily structure. Confusing BOS with CHOCH – Leads to premature entries. Not Waiting for Confirmation – Jumping in before liquidity is grabbed. Overloading Indicators – SMC works best with a clean chart. 7. Advanced SMC & Liquidity Concepts 7.1 Mitigation Blocks When price returns to an order block but doesn’t fully reverse — instead, it continues trend after partially “mitigating” the zone. 7.2 Internal & External Liquidity External Liquidity: Major swing highs/lows visible to everyone. Internal Liquidity: Smaller highs/lows inside larger moves. Smart Money often sweeps internal liquidity first, then external liquidity. 7.3 Time & Price Theory Certain times of day (e.g., London open) align with higher probability liquidity sweeps due to volume influx. 8. Practical Trading Plan Using SMC & Liquidity 8.1 Daily Preparation Higher Timeframe Bias: Identify daily & 4H market structure. Mark Key Zones: Liquidity pools, order blocks, FVGs. Session Plan: Anticipate liquidity grabs during London/NY opens. 8.2 Execution Rules Wait for liquidity sweep. Confirm with BOS or CHOCH. Enter with minimal risk, aiming for 1:3+ R:R. Exit at next liquidity pool. 8.3 Risk Management Risk 1% per trade. Stop-loss beyond liquidity grab. Use partial profit-taking at mid-targets. 9. Why SMC Outperforms Traditional Strategies Focuses on why price moves, not just what price does. Aligns trading with the biggest players in the market. Avoids fakeouts by understanding liquidity grabs. 10. Final Thoughts Smart Money Concepts & Liquidity Trading are not “magic tricks.” They’re a lens to view the market’s true mechanics — the interplay of institutional demand and retail supply. When mastered: You stop fearing stop hunts — you anticipate them. You stop guessing — you read the market’s intent. You trade with the big players, not against them.
NSE:BLSEducation
by TechnicalExpress
4
Bajaj FinanceBajaj Finance Limited operates as a diversified non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, offering consumer finance, SME finance, commercial lending, and rural lending. Its business model focuses on cross-selling multiple financial products to an existing customer base through data analytics and a wide distribution network. Key segments include personal loans, home loans, gold loans, business loans, and EMI financing for consumer durables. The company leverages partnerships with retailers, e-commerce platforms, and manufacturers to expand reach. Strong risk management, digital platforms, and customer lifecycle management drive profitability and growth, making it a leading player in India’s retail lending space.
NSE:BAJFINANCEShort
by TheGoldenFarmsofEquity
1
Bank niftyBy market-cap weight, key constituents include: HDFC Bank Ltd – 28.17％ (Smart‑Investing reports ~33.28 ％; slight variation possible due to timing; broadly ~28–33％) ICICI Bank Ltd – 25.23％ (~22.96％ per Smart‑Investing) State Bank of India (SBI) – 8.72％ (~15.89％ per Smart‑Investing) Axis Bank Ltd – 8.40％ (~7.19％ per Smart‑Investing) Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd – 8.36％ (~8.44％) IndusInd Bank Ltd – 3.72％ (≈1.35 ％) Federal Bank Ltd – 3.38％ (≈1.09 ％) IDFC First Bank Ltd – 3.11％ (≈1.12 ％) Bank of Baroda – 2.98％ (≈2.68 ％) AU Small Finance Bank Ltd – 2.97％
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by TheGoldenFarmsofEquity
5
August 13 Gold AnalysisAugust 13 Gold Analysis I. Intraday Market Trends and Key Drivers - Gold Price Trend: Stable above $3,350 in the European session, regaining buying support after two consecutive days of pullback, leading to a short-term rebound. - Key Catalysts: 1. US CPI Data: Headline inflation remained flat in July (2.7%), but core CPI rose to 3.1% (a five-month high). Market bets on the probability of a September rate cut rose to 93.4%, putting pressure on the US dollar and boosting gold. 2. Intensifying Policy Game: - Trump pressured Powell to cut rates and threatened a lawsuit. Treasury Secretary Bensant advocated for a 50 basis point cut in September, and Bullard expressed his support. - Disagreements emerged within the Federal Reserve: Barkin questioned the inflation-unemployment balance, while Schmid warned that tariffs would drive up inflation. Policy uncertainty amplified safe-haven demand. 3. Unexpected Disruptions: Anthony, the nominee for Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, proposed suspending the release of the employment report, coupled with Fed Governor Milan's optimistic inflation stance, exacerbating market volatility. II. Key Technical Signals and the Bull-Bear Game - The volatile pattern remains unchanged: Gold prices are in a consolidation phase after retreating from the $3,400 high, with support above $3,300 holding firm. - Bull-Bear Tipping Points: - Support Fortress: $3,340 (H4 200-day moving average + high trading volume area). If this fails, the $3,300 mark is likely to fall. - Breakout Path: If it holds $3,350 and breaks through $3,360 resistance, it will open the way to $3,380-3,400. Further breakthroughs could challenge the historical highs of $3,420-3,500. - Short-term Momentum: - Gold prices rose after the overnight CPI data, then fell to $3,330. Trump's attacks on Powell triggered a V-shaped reversal, demonstrating high policy sensitivity. - Currently, the Asian and European sessions are experiencing strong volatility, with $3,340-3,350 forming the intraday bullish support level. III. Trading Strategy and Risk Management Key Points Intraday Trading Logic > 📌 Core Strategy: European trading continues to fluctuate and favor the bulls. Focus on the effectiveness of a breakout above $3,360. Follow the momentum in the US market. - Aggressive Strategy: - At the current price of $3,353, try a light buy position (or add to your position if it pulls back to $3,348). Stop-loss below $3,340, target $3,360 → $3,378**. - If it breaks above $3,360, chase long positions to target the $3,380-3,400 range. - Conservative Strategy: - Wait for gold to break through $3,360 with significant volume before retracing to follow up with a long position. Alternatively, go short if it breaks below $3,340 (target $3,320-3,300). Trade cautiously and manage risk! Wish you good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily357538
JMFINANCIL Price Action ## JM Financial Limited – Price Analysis (August 2025) ### Price & Market Metrics - Current share price: ₹186.95. - Market capitalization: Approximately ₹17,875 crore. - 52-week price range: ₹78.00 (low) to ₹189.90 (high). - Day's trading range recently: ₹163.60 to ₹189.90. - Significant price increase noted recently, with a 14.87% rise on the day observed. ### Returns & Volatility - The stock has gained about 69% over the last 3 months. - 12-month return is roughly 97%, showing strong growth. - 3-year return stands near 182%. - Recent intraday volatility with daily price swings within a wide range. ### Valuation Metrics - Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio: Around 16.23. - Earnings per share (EPS): ₹11.52. - Price/Book (P/B) ratio: Approximately 1.52. - Dividend yield: Around 1.46%. ### Financial & Business Notes - The company has posted moderate sales growth (around 5% year-over-year as per last known data). - Profitability remains solid with steady net income growth. - Market sentiment has been strongly positive, driving recent price appreciation. - Technical indicators show the stock trading well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling bullish momentum. ### Summary JM Financial is currently trading near its 52-week high with strong recent price performance and solid returns over multiple timeframes. The valuation metrics like P/E around 16 and P/B near 1.5 suggest relatively reasonable valuation for a financial services firm with stable profitability. The significant price gains recently reflect positive market sentiment and business fundamentals, though some volatility is present. Investors should consider the solid growth and moderate valuation in the context of overall sector and market conditions when evaluating the stock.
NSE:JMFINANCILLong
by KamalKJoshi
NIFTY- Intraday Levels - 14th August 2025 Weekly expiry, also weekly candel will be form so closing will be very important to set the tone for next weeks movement. If NIFTY sustain above 24611 above this bullish then 24678/87 above this more bullish then 24736/45/63/76/99 then wait If NIFTY sustain below 24692 then 24557/63 then 24544/35 below this bearish then24476/67 below this more bearish then 24418/14/09 then the last hope 24391/71 then wait My view :- My analysis is for your study and analysis only, also consider my analysis could be wrong and to safeguard the trade risk management is must, both side movements are expected, in opening session some bounce may come then we can expect some bearish reversal from strong resistance. Overall view could be sell on rise. Looks like market may behave like 12th aug. However always take decision on the levels or as per your analysis, sometimes news can trigger movement. Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
NSE:NIFTY
by PrashantTaralkar
ITDCEM Price Action## ITD Cementation India Limited (ITDCEM) Price Analysis (August 2025) ### Price & Market Metrics - **Current share price:** Around ₹793 (NSE, August 13, 2025). - **Market capitalization:** Approximately ₹13,622 crore. - **52-week range:** ₹467 (low) to ₹944 (high). - **Day's trading range:** ₹762–₹804. - **Recent price change:** Up about 4.5% on the day. - **Average volumes:** About 762,000 shares traded daily in recent periods. ### Returns & Volatility - The stock has seen a strong rebound from lows around ₹467 in the past year to near ₹793 currently. - Price movements recently show moderate volatility within a range of about 5% intraday. - The 52-week high near ₹944 was achieved recently in July 2025. ### Valuation Metrics - Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio: Approximately 33.3, which is moderately high. - Earnings per share (EPS): ₹23.83. - Dividend yield is low at around 0.25%. - The stock currently trades above its 50-day average price (~₹812) and significantly above its 200-day average (~₹612), indicating recent bullish momentum. ### Financial & Business Highlights - ITD Cementation is in the infrastructure sector, focusing on construction and civil engineering. - The company is supported by a solid order book and infrastructure demand growth. - Market sentiment has been positive with institutional investor meetings scheduled mid-August 2025. ### Technical Sentiment - The stock price has recently pulled back slightly from highs but remains strong overall. - Moving averages suggest upward momentum. - Volume patterns indicate active trading and buyer interest. *** ### Summary ITDCEM is trading near its upper range for the year, with a current price around ₹793 and a strong market capitalization above ₹13,000 crore. The valuation is moderately high with a P/E above 30 and EPS near ₹24. Recent price momentum is positive supported by infrastructure sector tailwinds and investor interest. While the stock has experienced some volatility, the technical indicators point to sustained buying at current levels. Dividend yield remains low, consistent with growth-oriented infrastructure companies. Investors should consider valuation moderately stretched but justified by growth prospects and market position. Caution is advised for short-term price swings given past volatility.
NSE:CEMPROLong
by KamalKJoshi
Strong USD, Gold "Holding Its Breath" at Key ResistanceYesterday, gold prices continued to trade within a tight range of 3,340–3,355 USD , reflecting the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Selling pressure is still present but not strong enough to break the key support level. On the news front: Both the U.S. Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m are forecast to rise 0.2% (vs. 0.0% previously), while unemployment claims are expected to dip from 226K to 225K . This signals inflationary pressure from the production side and a resilient labor market , which could prompt the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy. A stronger USD puts short-term downward pressure on gold. From the chart: Gold is moving within a sideway range of 3,340 – 3,363 USD after being rejected at the 3,363 USD resistance zone. The price structure shows consolidation with minor technical pullbacks. The 3,312 USD support remains intact; if it holds, buyers may step back in. Suggested strategy: Look for buy opportunities around 3,312 – 3,320 USD if support holds, with a target at 3,363 USD. Place stop-loss below 3,305 USD to limit risk. Question: Do you think gold has enough momentum to break 3,363 USD and start a new bullish leg this week?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Rocky_trade_
6
SKIPPER Price Action## SKIPPER Price Analysis (August 2025) ### Price & Market Metrics - Latest share price is approximately ₹538.75. - Market capitalization stands around ₹6,074–6,085crore. - The 52-week low is ₹341.55 (April 2025) and the high is ₹665.00 (December 2024). - Recent price trend: Strong rebound from April lows, with current price near the top of the recent trading range. - Day range on August 13: ₹505.10 – ₹538.20. ### Returns & Volatility - 1-month gain: About 12%. - 1-year return: Roughly 33–35%, outperforming broader indices and sector averages. - 3-year return: Over 880%. - Skipper often sees daily volatility in the 2–6% range, especially during August. Historically, Augusts show flat average returns but are characterized by abrupt price changes both upward and downward. ### Financial Performance - Trailing 12-month EPS: ₹14.37. - TTM net profit: About ₹158.9crore. - Net sales for the last reported quarter (June 2025): ₹1,253.86crore, up 14.85% YoY. - Consolidated net sales (March 2025): ₹1,287.75crore, up 11.64% YoY. - Profit margin is moderate—company has low interest coverage and return on equity relative to valuation. ### Valuation - P/E ratio: 35–37, well above sector average. - P/B ratio: About 5.1. - Dividend yield is very low, with most earnings retained. - Book value per share: ₹105.69. ### Qualitative & Technical Notes - The company’s growth is supported by solid export and infrastructure orders, but margins and returns remain modest compared to peers. - Promoter holding is robust (around two-thirds of shares). - Technical trend is positive, with outperformance versus sector and key moving averages, but sharp swings are common and corrections have occurred previously after strong rallies. - Stock currently trades above estimated fair value and sector multiples. *** ### Summary SKIPPER has rebounded powerfully from earlier lows and is now trading near multi-month highs, supported by strong sales growth and consistent profitability. However, the valuation has become elevated with respect to sector and intrinsic value metrics, while dividend yield remains nominal. Daily volatility and historical instability in August should be considered alongside strong long-term returns and positive business momentum—investors should be alert to potential price corrections or swings at these levels.
NSE:SKIPPERLong
by KamalKJoshi
BTCUSDT – Bulls Maintain Control, Upside Scenario IntactOver the past two days , the crypto market has been supported by a series of positive developments: yesterday, U.S. PPI data cooled, easing inflationary pressure and strengthening expectations that the Fed may soon cut interest rates; today, global risk sentiment improved as U.S. and European stock indices rebounded; and most recently, Bitcoin ETF inflows continued to post net gains, signaling that institutional investors remain confident in the bullish trend. On the daily chart , BTC is still moving within an ascending channel, with a strong resistance zone around 121,000 – 122,000 USDT. Currently, the price is consolidating right near the upper boundary of the channel, showing that buying pressure remains in control. The strong support zone lies between 112,000 – 110,000 USDT, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary. Preferred strategy: look for buying opportunities if the price pulls back toward 112,000 – 110,000 USDT, targeting a return to 121,000 USDT and potentially new highs. The bullish trend remains intact as long as the price stays within this ascending channel.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
Natural gas: Chart AnalysisLet’s break down the Natural Gas Futures (INR) Weekly Chart step-by-step. This will include chart structure, patterns, demand–supply zones, and precise support/resistance levels based on what I can see on the charts : 🔍Chart OverviewTimeframe: Weekly (1W)Current Price: ₹244.7 (down -5.30%)Price is near an important ascending trendline support (green line) after a strong correction from recent highs. Structure shows earlier breakout above descending trendline (blue) followed by a retest and rejection. 🧭 1. Trend AnalysisLong-Term Trend:From 2022 highs (₹900+), Natural Gas was in a sharp downtrend (blue descending trendline).Downtrend broke in late 2023, initiating a mid-term uptrend within an ascending channel. Short-Term Trend:Since the ₹405.7 high (early 2025), prices are in a correction phase.Price now testing demand zone near ₹244–₹212. 📈 2. Chart Patterns,Ascending Channel: Price has been moving between parallel green lines since late 2023.Breakdown Risk: Price is testing the lower channel line; breakdown could trigger more downside.Head & Shoulders Possibility: The highs around ₹405–₹358 resemble a left shoulder–head–right shoulder formation, with neckline near ₹249–₹244. A confirmed break below could accelerate selling. Supply Zone Rejection: Strong selling emerged from ₹358–₹405, marking it as a supply zone.📍 3. Key Technical LevelsLevel (₹) nType the:Significance 405.7 🔺 Major Supply 2025 high, strong rejection point 358.7 Secondary Supplying- Recent swing high before sell-off 249.6–244.7 ⚠️ Current Zone Channel support & neckline zone 218.0 🛑 Demand Zone Past consolidation & buying interest 212.0 🛑 Strong Support Historical demand zone floor 209.9 🔻 Critical Support If broken, opens path to ₹180–₹160⚖ 4. Demand & Supply ZonesDemand Zones:₹218–₹212 (weekly accumulation area)₹180–₹160 (last major base before rally) Supply Zones:₹358–₹405 (heavy selling area)₹280–₹300 (minor supply if bounce occurs) 5. Possible ScenariosScenario 1 Support Holds:If ₹244–₹212 holds, expect a bounce towards ₹280 and ₹300.A close above ₹300 could re-test ₹358. Scenario 2 – Breakdown:A close below ₹212 could lead to a quick drop towards ₹180–₹160. ⚠ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only, not trading advice. Futures & commodities are highly volatile; manage risk and consult a registered financial advisor.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by Global_Growth_Mentor
NIFTY- Intraday Levels - 13th August 2025If NIFTY sustain above 24512/21 above this bullish then 24544/53 above this more bullish then 24632/41 then 24692 to 24720 then wait If NIFTY sustain below 24479/65/56 below this bearish then around 24414 then around 24371 below this more bearish then 24343/24324 then last hope 24267/53/39/17 My analysis is for your study and analysis only, also consider my analysis could be wrong and to safeguard the trade risk management is must, volatility can be seen and direction is not clear, with my limited knowledge it may be sale on rise. Consider some buffer points in above levels. Please do your due diligence before trading or investment. **Disclaimer -  I am not a SEBI registered analyst or advisor. I does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any information, conversation, or content. Stock trading is inherently risky and the users agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that they make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of these communications should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. The users understands and acknowledges that there is a very high risk involved in trading securities. By using this information, the user agrees that use of this information is entirely at their own risk. Thank you.
NSE:NIFTY
by PrashantTaralkar
1
[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BEARISH Outlook – August 12, 2025Today, I will introduce my short position outlook for Bitcoin on August 12. There are two grounds for this idea. First, an arbitrary wave X forms a 0.382 length ratio with another arbitrary wave. In general, the 5th wave often has a length ratio of 0.382 compared to the 1st wave. In this case as well, it can be counted in the same way. Second, as a result of applying the Fibonacci in reverse to the wave that appears to be in a diagonal form, the point where the ratio of 2 is formed almost exactly matched the recent high of around 112,360. I often use this kind of “reverse Fibonacci.” Normally, Fibonacci is drawn with the past point as the first point and the future point as the second point, but I do the opposite — setting the future point as the first point and the past point as the second point. In this case, ratios such as 1.618 / 2 / 2.24 / 2.618 / 3 / 3.618 are often used. It is especially effective for measuring ratios between wave pairs that skip one wave, such as between wave A and wave C, or between wave 3 and wave 1. thank you.
Short
by SeoVereign
[SeoVereign] RIPPLE BEARISH Outlook – August 10, 2025In this idea, I would like to present a bearish outlook on Ripple. There are three main reasons on which this perspective is based. First, an arbitrary wave X forms a 1.272 ratio with another arbitrary wave X. Second, a 1.414 BUTTERFLY pattern has formed. Third, if the consistently formed trendline is broken to the downside, I believe the likelihood of Ripple’s decline will increase. Accordingly, the average take-profit target has been set around 3.145 USDT. Thank you very much for reading, and as time goes by and the chart becomes clearer, I will continue to update this idea accordingly. Thank you.
Short
by SeoVereign
[SeoVereign] SOLANA BULLISH Outlook – August 11, 2025Recently, Solana’s price movement has been showing a very classic Elliott Wave pattern. Based on this, I would like to present a bearish outlook this time. The basis for this idea is as follows: Wave 5 = 50% of the length of Waves 0–3 Wave 5 = equal length to Wave 1 (1:1 ratio) In addition, the fact that Wave 5 is forming an ending diagonal pattern strongly suggests the possibility of a decline. Please refer to the chart for more details. Accordingly, the first target price has been set at 175 USDT. I plan to continue updating this idea as the movement unfolds. Thank you.
Short
by SeoVereign
Part 12 Trading Master ClassCommon Mistakes to Avoid Holding OTM options too close to expiry hoping for a miracle. Selling naked calls without understanding unlimited risk. Over-leveraging with too many contracts. Ignoring commissions and slippage. Not adjusting positions when market changes. Practical Tips for Success Backtest strategies on historical data. Start with paper trading before using real money. Track your trades in a journal. Combine technical analysis with options knowledge. Trade liquid options with tight bid-ask spreads.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
6