AUDUSD braces for yearly low on RBA dayAUDUSD bears take a breather after bouncing off a two-month-old horizontal support area, inside a broad bearish channel from early May, as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) verdict. Although the Aussie central bank is up for another 0.5% rate hike, the fears of economic slowdown due to the trade links with China appear to tease the sellers. That said, a clear downside break of 0.6760 appears necessary for the sellers to approach the yearly low near 0.6680. Following that, the likely oversold RSI (14) and lower line of the stated channel, could challenge the further downside around 0.6560. Even if the quote drops below 0.6560 support, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-August moves, near 0.6530, could act as another downside filter.
Meanwhile, recovery moves could aim for the early August low near 0.6870 before the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6990 gains the market’s attention. Should the AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.6990 resistance, the 0.7000 threshold and the aforementioned bearish channel’s upper line, close to 0.7080 by the press time, will be important to watch. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s run-up beyond 0.7080 could give control to bulls.
Hawkish
AUDUSD pierces 0.7100 on RBA’s rate hikeAUDUSD bulls cheer the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in early Tuesday. The recovery moves also justify the RSI rebound from oversold territory, as well as pierce a downward sloping resistance line from April 21, near 0.7100 by the press time. Considering the RBA’s hawkish moves, backed by firmer technicals, the Aussie pair is likely rising towards the mid-March swing low surrounding 0.7165. However, the 200-SMA and previous support line from March, around 0.7285 and 0.7410 in that order, will challenge the bulls afterward.
Meanwhile, the pair’s fresh downside may aim for the 0.7040 level before directing the bears towards the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6965 will be in focus as a break of which will direct the AUDUSD bears toward the mid-2020 lows near 0.6775.
Overall, AUDUSD is cheering the well-due recovery as the RBA announced rate-hike. However, the upside momentum needs validation from the Fed before reversing the broadly bearish trend.