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HDFCBANK

HDFC Bank AnalysisHDFC Bank has given a good bullish move in 2nd half today, I expect further bullishness. There are total 3 scenarios that can happen: Scenario 1 : Open above 1529 & retest of this level, buy if the level holds & market shows bullish momentum. Scenario 2 : Price comes down to the first demand zone between 1505-1510 & shows bullish momentum then buy for a min target of 1529 with 1505 as SL. Scenario 3 : Price comes to the 2nd demand zone between 1495-1500 & Shows bullish momentum then buy for a min target of 1529 with 1495 as SL.
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by BharatAsani
PostMortem on BankNifty  09 NOV 2022 + Comparison with SPX Bank nifty might have closed in the green today, but i am of the opinion that the price action formed today is negative. I would like to short bank nifty from here especially because its weekly expiry tomorrow. BN opened gap up at 41914 made a strong red candle - keep in mind this is the all time high. Although the first candle was red - its not the base reason why i am short. In fact the price action till 14.25 was bullish. Only the last 1 hour price action made me bearish for this short term. From a fundamental perspective, bank nifty is at ATH, nifty50 is not - thats because the niftyIT index has some catch up to day. Globally none of the major indices are at their ATHs - most of them are down 10 to 25% from the FY22 highs. The first level of support is at 41459 which is quite far from the current levels. So any trigger of bad news or absence of good one can push BN to these support levels. There was a good momentum rally from 12.15 to 14.15 - this even took out the day's high. Most of the investors seem bullish - maybe they are right in the long term. But my job is to make trades looking at the price action. --- Of the major bank nifty components HDFCBk and ICICIBk closed in negative, the fall in ICICIBank was brutal esp the last 1 hour SBI & Kotak closed flattish - but the price action made in the last 1 hour was interesting IndusInd bank closed in positive but this was after a gradual fall from 10.30 peak. Axis bank closed in negative due to the selling in the last 1 hr. The last 5mts candle hit the intraday low --- The reason i am bearish for tomorrow is because of the volumes of call option written in the last 1 hour. If you check the volume chart for almost all the liquid contracts you can understand that clearly. Having said that shorting far OTM CE options would not have worked that well today, thats because the premiums were very low even while the index hit the all time highs. There was a spike in CE premiums at 13.50 5mts candle - from this point onwards the option writers have taken the short bet. I could be immensely wrong also - as any uptick will result in short covering and the index will scale back up. But as i always use to say, our job mandates that we should have a view and we make money if the view is correct. If our view is wrong, we should be able to exit with minimal loss. Ratio spread of PE option would have worked out after 14.30 ie sell 1 lot of 41500 PE and buy 2 lots of 41400 PE (unlimited gain, limited loss strategy) --- SPX500 and Bank nifty have a spread of 22.8% as of today. Lets watch the S&P500 closely today as the mid term elections would create volatility in the market. My support level is at 3737 and the nearest resistance is at 3813 for the 15mts chart --- 15mts chart looks bullish as the ATH is hit. Reiterating my bearish view is only for the immediate short term. 1hr chart also shows bullishness --- Bank nifty support & resistance levels s1: 41459, s2: 41314 r1: no resistance as near ATH --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
CHOOSING OPTIONS STRIKEChoosing wrong strike prices can lead to big losses even when our analysis is right. It's due to Theta decay. So Lets understand some basics of options strike price. There are three types of strike prices based on their moneyness. 1)ATM (At the Money) 2)OTM (Out of the Money) 3)ITM (In the Money) FOR CALL OPTIONS : Lets assume Stock ABC is trading at 150 (spot price). Then, Spot price = 150 ATM Strike = 150 Any strike above spot price is OTM for call option. Ex : 160 ,170,180 etc., Any strike below spot price is ITM for call option. Ex : 140, 130, 120 etc., FOR PUT OPTIONS : Stock ABC is trading at 150 (spot price). Spot price = 150 ATM Strike = 150 Any strike above spot price is ITM for put option. Ex : 160 ,170,180 etc., Any strike below spot price is OTM for put option. Ex : 140, 130, 120 etc., HOW TO CHOOSE THE STRIKE AMONG THE ABOVE THREE MONEYNESS 1)Follow a simple rule, Buy a strike price which is closer to the spot price. "OTM STRIKES ARE BIG NO" . 2) Remember! when we are buying an option, the stock / index needs to move up / down with a good momentum. So that our option will gain some value & we will be in profit. So it doesn't make sense to buy a OTM call / put. Because if a strike price is far away from spot price, it won't give us much movement due to time decay. I have even shared my option strike rules as follow. Friday, Monday & Tuesday = ATM strikes Wednesday & Thursday = ITM strikes This is how I used to pick strikes for intraday. The reason is simple because, if we are closer to the expiry (Thursday) the effect of theta decay is very high. Due to which our premiums will not move much even if the stock / index has moved pretty well. By following these rules, our chances of losing money will drop drastically. Happy Learning & Earning :) - DivyaaPugal
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NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by Divyaapugal
25