Institution Option Trading Part-5Popular Strategies Tested via Option Database
IV Crush Earnings Strategy
Buy/sell options before earnings when IV is high, expecting post-earnings IV drop.
High OI Breakouts
Trade breakouts from strikes with high OI using price+OI correlation.
Skew Arbitrage
Analyze IV skew and trade underpriced/overpriced strikes accordingly.
Time Decay Capture (Theta)
Sell options with high Theta before expiry using historical decay rates.
💡 Advantages of Option Database Trading
Quantitative Edge: Allows logic-based decisions over emotion-driven trades.
Backtesting Confidence: Know the probability of success before risking capital.
Scalability: Can analyze hundreds of symbols and expiry combinations.
Automation Ready: Can link with brokers to run fully algorithmic systems.
HDFCBANK
Trading Road Map 1. Foundation Stage (Beginner Level)
Understand Markets: Equity, Commodity, Forex, Derivatives
Basic Concepts: What is a stock, index, option, futures
Learn Platforms: TradingView, Zerodha, Upstox
Risk Awareness: Avoid FOMO, control emotions, capital safety
🔹 2. Skill Building Stage (Intermediate Level)
Technical Analysis: Charts, Patterns, Indicators (MACD, RSI, Moving Averages)
Fundamental Analysis: Earnings, Balance Sheets, PE ratio
Paper Trading: Practice without risking money
Journaling: Track trades, wins/losses, and learn from mistakes
🔹 3. Strategy Development (Advanced Level)
Create Systems: Scalping, Swing, Positional
Options Mastery: Strategies like Iron Condor, Straddle, Spread
Risk Management: Position sizing, SL rules, R:R ratio
Backtesting: Validate your strategy on historical data
🔹 4. Execution & Scaling (Pro Level)
Discipline & Psychology: Stick to plans, stay unemotional
Automation & Tools: Algo Trading, Screeners
Capital Scaling: From ₹10K to ₹10L+ systematically
Diversification: Trade across assets, build passive income
HDFC Bank levels for swing tradingAccording to a recent analysis, the important levels are:
CMP: ₹1,980 (as per pivot analysis site)
Short-term momentum appears neutral to bullish.
Daily Pivot (Classic Standard) – significant for intraday/swing entries
Pivot: 2002.43
Support: S1 1972.57, S2 1948.83, S3 1918.97, S4 1895.23
Resistance: R1 2026.17, R2 2056.03
CPR (Daily):
BC: 1969.50
P: 1972.57
TC: 1975.63
Weekly Pivot – key for multi‑day swing setups
Pivot: 1961.00
Support: S1 1925.70, S2 1872.70, S3 1837.40
Resistance: R1 2049.30, R2 2102.30
CPR (Weekly):
BC: 1952.15
P: 1961.00
TC: 1969.85
Open Interest & Option Chain Analysis Topic: Open Interest & Option Chain Analysis
1: What is Open Interest (OI)?
Simple Meaning:
Open Interest means the total number of active option or futures contracts in the market that haven’t been closed yet.
Easy Example:
If you and your friend enter into a new option trade, the open interest is 1. If someone else joins with a new trade, it becomes 2. But if you close your trade, it becomes 1 again.
What It Tells You:
If OI is increasing, more people are joining the market.
If OI is decreasing, traders are exiting their trades.
Combine OI with Price Movement:
Price going up + OI going up = New buying → Bullish
Price going down + OI going up = New selling → Bearish
Price going up + OI going down = Traders exiting shorts → Short covering
Price going down + OI going down = Traders exiting longs → Profit booking
2: What is an Option Chain?
Simple Meaning:
Option Chain is a table that shows all the call and put options for a stock at different strike prices.
What You’ll See in an Option Chain:
Strike Price: The price you agree to buy/sell.
Calls (CE): Right to buy.
Puts (PE): Right to sell.
Open Interest (OI): How many contracts are active.
Volume: How many were traded today.
LTP: Latest price of that option.
3: How to Read Option Chain Like a Pro
1. Spot the Support Levels:
Look for the highest OI on the put (PE) side → Big money sees this as support.
2. Spot the Resistance Levels:
Look for the highest OI on the call (CE) side → Traders think price won't go above this.
3. Track Market Mood:
If more puts are being written (PE OI going up) → Traders are bullish.
If more calls are being written (CE OI going up) → Traders are bearish.
4. PCR (Put Call Ratio):
PCR > 1 → More puts than calls = Bullish
PCR < 1 → More calls than puts = Bearish
Advance Institutions Option Trading - Lecture 5When it comes to low risk options strategies, selling a call spread and selling a put spread are techniques that traders often utilize. These strategies are characterized by a high probability of profit due to the low probability of loss, and they limit risk in case the trade doesn't go as planned.
While day traders look at minute-to-minute price changes, swing traders look at trends that play out over several days. This is considered one of the most profitable trading types that allows more flexibility, as you don't need to be glued to your computer screen all day.
Advance Institutions Option Trading - Lecture 4If you're looking for a simple options trading definition, it goes something like this: Options trading gives you the right or obligation to buy or sell a specific security on or by a specific date at a specific price. An option is a contract that's linked to an underlying asset, such as a stock or another security.
Options trading also involves two parties: the holder (buyer) and the writer (sometimes called the seller). Holders are investors who purchase contracts, while writers create them. The holder pays the writer a premium for the right to sell or buy a stock by a certain date.
HDFCBANK: All Time High retest, for new ATH.The ATH level will be retested and will act as immediate resistance and a possible pullback zone.
Price breaking out this level will target 2005 and 2025 as initial targets.
Prices if rejecting this, it will create a double top with RSI divergence.
Price breaking out will trigger a buy, with Immediate resistance a support for exit.
HDFCBANK | Symmetrical Triangle | Daily |Watchlist### **Technical Analysis of HDFC Bank Ltd. (NSE)**
The **daily candlestick chart** of **HDFC Bank Ltd.** highlights key technical patterns, suggesting potential bullish momentum.
### **Key Observations:**
1. **Cup and Handle Formation:**
- A well-defined **cup and handle** pattern is visible, indicating prolonged accumulation.
- Breakout above **1,960.00 INR** confirms bullish sentiment.
- **Projected Target:** **2,057.30 INR**, a **11.62% upside** from breakout.
2. **Symmetrical Triangle Breakout:**
- Price action consolidating within a **symmetrical triangle**, leading to breakout confirmation.
- Strong move above **1,944.90 INR**, validating upward momentum.
3. **Volume & Price Action:**
- **Volume:** **14.37M** surpassing 20-day moving average of **10.13M**, confirming strength.
### **Support & Resistance Levels:**
- **Support:** **1,842.00 INR**, acting as a key cushion in case of pullbacks.
- **Resistance:** **2,057.30 INR**, aligning with the measured move projection.
HDFC BANK : 45-50% upside possible in 1.5 Years. BODHi friends,
Targets are mentioned in the self explanatory chart .
HDFC Bank is the largest private sector bank having all time high profitability & sells .
It has well controlled gross and net NPA compared to its peers .
There is a very good probability for the stock to reward its investors with ~50% return .
Its a BOD (BUY ON DIPS) as per my analysis .
Please feel free to comment or share your views on my analysis .
Note : I am not SEBI registered advisor . Please consider my analysis for education purpose only .
Smart money buying in YES BANK.YES Bank Breakout Alert
YES Bank has recently shown a strong breakout supported by high trading volume, following news that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation has received RBI approval to acquire a 51% stake in the bank.
From a technical standpoint, the chart structure indicates a bullish trend on higher time frames. If this breakout holds as genuine, the stock has the potential to test ₹22.50 and ₹28 levels in the near term — representing an upside of approximately 40% from current levels.
Range-Bound Between Key Supply & Demand Zones🏦 HDFC Bank Ltd – Range-Bound Between Key Supply & Demand Zones 📊
Timeframe: 15-Minute | Exchange: NSE | Date: May 6, 2025
CMP: 1,929.00
🔴 Retested Supply Zone: 1949.60 - 1958.40
This zone previously acted as resistance after a sharp fall.
Price revisited the zone but was rejected, indicating potential selling pressure.
A breakout above this level could trigger bullish continuation.
🟢 Possible Demand Zone: 1898 - 1891.80
Price rebounded from this zone earlier, showing possible accumulation by buyers.
Not confirmed yet with multiple tests, but worth watching for potential support.
Breakdown below this may open the door to further downside.
📌 Current Price Action
HDFC Bank is currently consolidating between these two zones.
No clear trend yet; price is oscillating sideways.
Volume is decreasing, indicating lack of momentum in either direction.
📈 Levels to Watch
Breakout Zone: 1,959+
Breakdown Zone: 1,890-
🔍 Observational Bias
Bearish Bias: If price revisits 1949.60 - 1958.40 zone and shows rejection, potential short setups may emerge.
Bullish Bias: If price retests 1898 - 1891.80 with bullish confirmation, long trades may be considered.
SBI form Inverse H&S.SBI form Inverse H&S pattern. Today gives break out of neckline 780. SBI is at demand zone add more if come down to 780. Close below 760 would be the violation of this pattern.
As per chart it may test 785-807 soon.
As per OI data on dated 17.04.2025 there is considerable OI shading on CE side and OI build up on PE side. Stock is in good momentum as upper Bolinger Band tested and expanded. As per indicator all are bullish only Moving average need to improve. There are good chance for retest the neckline.
Falling Wedge Breakout with Bullish Structure | 15-Min Chart🏦 HDFC BANK LTD – Falling Wedge Breakout with Bullish Structure | 15-Min Chart
📅 Date: April 25, 2025
📈 Timeframe: 15-Minute
🔍 Stock: HDFC Bank Ltd (NSE)
📌 Technical Overview:
HDFC Bank is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal on the 15-minute chart, forming a falling wedge pattern, which is typically known for reversal setups. Price action suggests a breakout from the wedge structure, with strong volume support.
🧩 Chart Pattern:
A clear Falling Wedge is identified using two converging trendlines (red).
Within the wedge, price completed a potential AB=CD harmonic structure, bottoming out near ₹1,891.
The breakout candle has closed above the upper trendline, signaling early strength.
🔍 Key Price Levels:
Support Zone: ₹1,891.80 (marked in red)
Immediate Resistance: ₹1,933.00 (green horizontal line)
CMP: ₹1,917.70
A sustained move above ₹1,933 may open room for further upside, potentially towards the ₹1,960–₹1,980 range as per the chart projection.
📊 Volume Analysis:
Noticeable pickup in green volume bars on the breakout candle.
This confirms growing interest and participation from the bulls.
🧠 Observational Bias:
As long as the price holds above ₹1,891 and sustains the breakout, the short-term trend appears to be tilting in favor of buyers. A retracement or retest of the wedge breakout zone may offer additional confirmation.
Tech Mahindra Q4 Earnings Highlights: #TECHM
Tech Mahindra Q4 Earnings Highlights: #TECHM
• Net Profit: ₹1,166.7 Cr-
Up 18.7% QoQ (vs *983.2 Cr) •
Revenue: *13,384 Cr - Up 0.7% QoQ (vs *13,285.6 Cr)
⚫ EBITDA: *1,378 Cr-Grows 2.1% QoQ (vs *1,350.2 Cr)
⚫ EBITDA Margin: 10.3%, Slightly Up from 10.2% QoQ
Technical Analysis Summary:
The stock made a recent high of ₹1,810.
*1,210.
It was in a downtrend but has reversed from a strong support level at
Currently trading at ₹1,445, the stock has formed a Doji candle, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure.
A break below *1,430-₹1,425 may signal increased selling pressure and potential downward movement.
Conversely, a break above ₹1,465-₹1,470 may trigger buying momentum
and a potential upward move.
Nifty-50 // 15 min support and Resistance .NIFTY_50 Indicators & signals
Indicator MACD (12,26,9)
23420.22, 23191.53, 96.12
Indicator MACD is in positive zone
Indicator ADX (14)
31.57, 44.62, 23.21
Indicator ADX is indicating that momentum is weak.
Indicator ADX is showing that momentum is towards buying
Indicator RSI (14)
Current RSI is: 53
Indicator RSI is indicating buying momentum and stock might rise.
Nifty Financial Services - EW Analysis - Good RR ShortNifty Financial Services showed resilience in the entire fall and led the way up in recovery as it had a 5 of 3 up (from March 23 lows) pending, which got done in Nifty and most other indices in Dec 2023.
Now it has completed that 4 and should lead on the way down. Expecting at least a 14% correction in index till 23150 (38.2% retracement). Next target will be 22020 (50% retracement).
My bet is on 50% retracement, as Bajaj Twins and HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have completed a corrective bounce and should test/ break recent lows.
Bajaj Twins have much larger correction possibility. Will share in other posts.
Banks in focus, chart: 2 HDFCChart -> SBI Daily
All time high breakout with run-away gap.
CMP: 1906
Good Range to Buy: 1920 to 1880
Targets: 1985, 2036
SL: 1855 Daily Close
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only, not any recommendations to buy or sell. As I am not SEBI registered, please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.