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IT "glitch" drags Nifty below 17950 from 18040+NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -11-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17867.55 H 18041.95 L 17839.10 C 17945.95 EOD - +50.75 points /+0.28% SGX Nifty at 1930h =20points FII DII = -1676 Crores. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened a mild gap up and then sold off to 8-10 low level and then, made a strong and sustained recovery to clear 18000 in style and then topped 18040 as well. However, by then FTSE had opened and the usual nervousness walked in and then there was a sell-off over the next 3 hours. Yet again, Nifty ended the day 90+ points below the ATH level achieved during the day. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 87 Net = -15 POSITIVES Nifty hit an All Time High above 18000. Nifty ended at yet another ATH close. HDFC was very volatile but settled in the green on an EOD basis. HDFC Bank seems to be pricing in a good result like how TCS did. Bank Nifty hit a new ATH and also ended at a new ATH. NEGATIVES IT big heads dragged Nifty in a big way. I do not recall TCS falling more than 3% post results in the recent past. Though this was to happen as it was at a very critical level below 4000. Reliance lost more than 60 points after hitting an ATH of 2720. TRADING RANGE FOR the coming week Nifty 17700-750 is the support base. I am not sure about the resistance levels as price action in Infosys, Wipro, as well as HDFC Bank may keep driving Nifty as they get ready to receive their answer papers during the next few days. Bank Nifty Support = 37500-700 appears to be a good support area. Since the ATH was hit today, I will let the index play its game for a couple of days and see where it ends the week before commenting on any resistance levels. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Nifty low for the day was just 1 point below 8-10 low and high for the day was 100 points above 8-10 high and yet Nifty managed to close only 50 points above 8-10 Close. This seems to be a mathematical play! The contribution by Nifty top 5 performers fell short by 15 points from the top 5 draggers of the Index. This is the kind of weakness and negativity that was driven by the IT index and that is why the subject line of the post. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 11-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
TCS Q2 results based strategies - OutcomeTCS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES - OUTCOME The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results today after market hours. This is the reason I thought of doing a post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking and till the time of writing this post and creating the video related to it, I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know in the weekend post. TCS hit a New All-Time High of 3989 and at the time of writing this post, it is around 3950. I already have other FNO positions on so I do not have spare capital to deploy so this approach. Please watch the video to know how the strategies performed and what I ended up doing when the scrip fell down by 6%+. I have chosen to track the following strategies: Bull Call Spread: In creating the spread, I have bought 3960 CE and shorted 4000 CE. The details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. In the worst case, there is a loss of 4K and in the best case, a gain of 6K. In my view, this is a good risk-reward considering the fact that there could be wild movements in a scrip post its results and TCS has moved 2-3% in the past around such events. Outcome: At 1100hours = Spread Value When Created = 14 At 1100h = 03 Being a Bull CE spread, the value should have gone up for us to make money Gain / Loss = -11*300 = -3300 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 80,000 ROI = -4% ATM Short Straddle: In this, I have shorted 3960 CE as well as PE. the details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. The margin requirement is quite high so even if I create a strategy by EOD, I would not go for this. The Max gain is around 65K and obviously, the loss in unlimited as Options are being shorted. Though one can always keep an SL or exit when the spot reaches a pre-decided level. Generally, short strategies are useful when the implied volatility is high prior to the event and the position gains as the VIX cools off after the event. At 1100hours = Straddle Value When Created = 225 At 1100h = 293 Being a Short Straddle, the value should have gone DOWN for us to make money. Gain / Loss = -68*300 = -20400 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 350,000 ROI = -5.83% I will post an outcome video as well on 11-10-21 so stay tuned! Till then, Keep learning & making money but at all times, please assign topmost priority to your capital and do all that is needed to stay in the game with it! Best wishes. Umesh 8-10-21 & 11-10-21
NSE:TCS
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17810.55 H 17857.55 L 17763.80 C 17790.35 EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82% SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle. The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively. It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800. The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20 Net = +78 POSITIVES Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do. ICICI Bank closed above 700. Reliance held on to the greener zone. HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels. NEGATIVES HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750. Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000. TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21 Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday. The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods. Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 7-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
Nifty yet again fails to clear 17750 and ends below 17700NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -04-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for the upcoming week. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. NIFTY O H L C C - PC H-L VIX FII DII Net Cum Likely Open 4-10-21 17,615.55 17,750.90 17,581.35 17,691.25 159.20 169.55 16.74 860 228 1,088 1,088 Flat to positive CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart The US markets ended the week in good green so it was natural for our indices to open in the green with a gap-up which was quite good and sustained as well. Nifty ended the upside movement as soon as it hit 15750 and for the 4th time in the last few days, it turned around from around 17750 levels. And then, a mini sell-off started and Nifty never recovered from there despite making an attempt to close above 17700. Finally, it settled for the day below 17700. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS RELIANCE 21.00 GRASIM 4.00 BAJAJ FINANCE 19.00 CIPLA 3.00 DIVIS LABS 19.00 HUL 3.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 18.00 IOC 2.00 ICICI BANK 10.00 TITAN 1.00 87.00 13.00 NET 74.00 POSITIVES Nifty closed above the 20 MA line. Nifty ended the day just below 17700. Reliance was firm throughout the day and helped Nifty stay at higher levels. Bank Nifty also managed to close above 37500 levels. VIX has fallen below 18. NEGATIVES Hdfc fell 40+ points from its day high which was at an intraday resistance. Hdfc Bank also failed to hold 1600 levels on a closing basis. TRADING RANGE FOR THE PERIOD 5-8 Oct 21: Nifty - 17400-450 Support is strong for now. Resistances are at 17700-750. BANK NIFTY - 37000-37200 Support and 37800-38000 as the key resistance areas. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS VIX has fallen below 18 indicating limited downside potential, but more sideways movement. Based on my Swing trading process, I bought Larsen & Toubro in 1720 CE when the spot was around 1704. I had to pay 51 for the option. The spot ended the day at 1715.25, up by 11 points, and the Option decayed by 1 point. This was clearly the outcome of a falling VIX and the impact was more than severe in my view. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 4-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Levels for - 05 Oct 2021EXPLANATION : This is a 45 min time frame chart of HDFCBANK . It has been in a sideways for days and formed Symmetrical triangle pattern ; A symmetrical triangle chart pattern represents a period of consolidation before the price is forced to breakout or breakdown. A breakdown from the lower trendline marks the start of a new bearish trend , while a breakout from the upper trendline indicates the start of a new bullish trend . Both side levels marked in chart . for downside target will be pending small gap . If you like this analysis give a Like // Follow for more updates , let me know in comments below :)
NSE:HDFCBANK
by pranav_nanavare
NIFTY ends the week above 17500NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-10-21 Note: I had done a video upload for this analysis, however, for some reason, it failed. NIFTY O H L C C - PC H-L VIX FII DII Net Cum Likely Open 1-10-21 17,531.90 17,557.15 17,452.90 17,532.05 17,532.05 104.25 17.21 131 -613 -482 -482 Flat CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 M Chart Global cues inspired gap-down was severe as it not only meant NIFTY opened below 17600, but it managed to drag NIFTY all the way down to 17450! In all, there were 3 attempts made to recovery and cross 17550 level and all three failed. NIFTY ended at the open price - a Doji pattern indicating indecisiveness as the big bro in the US was not yet awake to guide the family. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS M&M 4.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 19.00 IOC 3.00 BAJAJ FINANCE 17.00 RELIANCE 3.00 HDFC 15.00 JSW STEEL 3.00 ICICI BANK 12.00 HDFC LIFE 3.00 HDFC BANK 11.00 16.00 74.00 LIFTERS - LAGGARDS -58.00 POSITIVES The only saving grace for NIFTY was that RELIANCE ended above 2500 and in the green. This helped NIFTY close above 17500. Similarly, for BANK NIFTY the saving grace is that it ended above 37200. NEGATIVES On an intraday basis, BANK NIFTY broke 37000 without any hesitation. HDFC twins along with BAJAJ twins were in no mood to stay positive and were soaked in negativity. TRADING RANGE FOR THE W/B 4-10-21: Without knowing how US markets end, it may be a bit early to state the levels, but from what it looks like, the following levels may well hold for now: NIFTY 17400-450 Support and plenty of resistances. No point listing them all. Unless Nifty closes above 17750, we will keep witnessing selling pressure. BANK NIFTY - 36500-800 Support and 37500-800-38000 as the key resistance areas. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS What a dampening start to the October series! Considered to be a bullish month, Indices end in red yet again falling in line with the Global cues. Today, I kept the FTSE chart open from the time it opened and the indices moved in line. I am wondering if our markets are so dependent on the global cues that they ignore some of the positives that are available locally? SGX NIFTY @ 1930h +100 points! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 1-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
HDFC Bank - Small Term Long ViewHDFC Bank looks like taking support on previous resistance zone. We will be taking a small equity position with a stop loss of 1575. Targets 1650/1700. Looking at increased volatility in markets, derivatives position should not be taken by novice traders at the moment. Looking for the targets in a couple of days. In case it consolidates then we will exit. Disclaimer: All investments and trading in the stock market involve risk. Any decisions to place trades in the financial markets, including trading in stock or options or other financial instruments is a personal decision that should only be made after thorough research, including a personal risk and financial assessment and the engagement of professional assistance to the extent you believe necessary. The trading strategies or related information mentioned in this article is for informational / educational purposes only.
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by Market-Thalaivaa
#BANKNIFTY FOR EXPIRY 7 SEP 👑# WE WILL MAKE ONLY PROFIT # I hope you all clear chart if you need any help to understand comment.. #First we see 50% world Market is Negative with Dowjones , India VIX... #Some chance to Gap down opening in BANKNIFTY tomorrow and i was thinking BANKNIFTY sustain same Level Whole Day. #Wait 9:45 or see a market and try to find or understand Correct Market Direction. #Its Not Compulsory Trade Everyday.. #If you are a Intraday Trader So use 5-10 Min Candle tomorrow. #IF YOU NEED ANY HELP JUST COMMENT OR MESSAGE ME😊😊
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by UnknownUnicorn22712522
12
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT