Patjhar ke baad aate hain din bahar ke, HDFCBANK 2300? PossibleWhile this mad bull rally is on, while I am youtubing every single market crash video periodically, it doesn't hurt to think or a moment with the trend.
So, what I observed every expiry, Nifty chart watching is a waste of time. Just Watch both Reliance and HDFCBANK on split screen. If either of them is giving a large move, that’s Nifty's expiry. So much a 10% can do, imagine 10% mandatory SIP till 40 years will earn you so much!
Anyway, so HDFCBANK is looking good for a very large move, which actually has been pending.
Pretty simple support and resistance box. Diwali bhi hai.
So very good Swing opportunity.
This is just a chart pattern discussion. Please trade your hard-earned money on advice of a registered stock market expert. I am a newbie trader :)
HDFCBANK
HDFCBANK - About to BREAKOUTThe stock is reaching the upper resistance line.
If you look carefully at the pattern, it looks to be extremely bullish, and will also complete the cup and handle formation which can take the stock to new heights (1700 looks likely).
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HDFC BANK LTDThis was recommended at the bottom when it was getting corrected, when no was even looking at it.
Now as it has crossed the expected mentioned targets and the wave is confirmed, the new targets are 1712-1787.The link for the old study is given above & below. Please follow through.
Chart & Analysis by - ADARSH DEY
Hdfc bank StudyHDFC Bank spot CMP :- 1687
Elliot wave + Harmonic + Chart patterns + Price action.
Time Frame : Daily
Chart Patterns :- Rising contracting wedge formation on larger scale, with demand line around 1590-1600 levels, act as good support for the counter and supply line around 1800-1830 which would act as strong resistance levels,,
Symmetrical triangle formation ( black dotted line coincide with harmonic pattern) counter gave break out from this formation around 1490-1510 levels, pattern have height of 248 points,, which after breakout would lead to a measured move of 248 points, so from breakout levels move of 248 points would lead to 1755-1770 levels, which would act as intermediate resistance for the counter.
pre covid life high for the counter was around 1305 levels from where counter gave a fall of 566 points, once this life high was taken out counter is continuously maintaining its uptrend till date, now adding same points to previous life high would give us the maturity point of the measured move,, 1305+566 = 1872, These will be the levels to be watched for maturity of uptrend..
Elliot wave :- Counter is trading in 5 impulse leg of impulse phase,, counter recently gave a breakout above the level of previous swing high which was around 1640 levels, and have entered the final upside leg of the impulse phase,,
wave 1 consist of 280 points, wave 2 have retraced around 70% of wave 1 which can retrace around 61.8 to 88.6% as per theory.
Wave 3 consist of 815 points, which is extended around 2.618% of wave 1, according to theory it should be between 1.618 to 3.618% of wave 1 and is longest and strongest wave of impulse phase.
Wave 4 have retraced around 38.2% of wave 3, which should be around 23.6 to 50% of wave 3, wave 4 always have shallow corrections and time consuming, they are in forms of triangles, zig zag and flats.
wave 5 should be in form of ending diagonal or wedge form where volumes are lighter than volume of wave 3, it can be equivalent to wave 1 in terms of points or in terms of % move,, but should be less than range of wave 3,
Calculating probabilities of wave 5 , if wave 5 is extended wave of wave 1, we get 280*1.618 = 454 points.
low of wave 4 is around 1353 levels, 1353+454 = 1807,,
if wave 5 is retracement wave of wave 3, we get 815*0.618 = 504 points.
low of wave 4 is around 1353, 1353 + 504 = 1856.
from this we get range of 1807-1856 between which last leg of impulse phase might mature.
Harmonic pattern : Bearish crab pattern formation on daily time frame with PRZ level around 1815-1840, last leg of formation might mature around this levels, from where the probabilites of reversal becomes higher.
Levels as per symmetrical triangle, 1756 as resistance level
levels as per elliot wave , 1807-1856 as resistance levels
Levels as per measured move, 1872 as resistance levels
levels as per harmonic study, 1815-1840 as potential reversal levels
Levels as per rising contracting wedge,1800-1830..
So from all this 1756 would act as intermediate resistance levels and range of 1810-1850 would act as stiff resistance zone where lots of patterns and study are maturing in same range.
HDFC Bank big Breakout HDFC bank has just given a breakout from it's double bottom pattern. But volume and Rsi indicates lower strength so we might se pullback tomorrow and that should be taken as an opportunity to enter in this golden stock
Buy at 1645-1650
Targets 1700,1780
SL 1600
Long term 1800 2000
(No SL)
HDFC bank is one the most fundamentally strong company and with its upcoming plans o expanding in rural areas makes it one of the best long term bet.
For short Targets duration is 3-4 weeks
and for Long term targets 1-2 years
# HDFCBANK ON THE EDGE OF A POTENTIAL BREAK OUTHDFCBANK one of the largest constituents of the market index is at the edge of a potential big breakout if it works out.
There is a rounding pattern formed and it already has cleared the previous 1641 resistance and is at all time high but just need
a green candle close above for confirmation. The Fibonacci extension levels indicates 1800 levels possible even if 50% FIB levels are met.
The trend indicators ADX is DMI + bull zones and strength of it seen rising on all timeframes short/medium/long.
The price momentum also is clearly bullish all around.However put tight stops below neckline of the breakout zone below entry candle.
If this breaks out really you could image where nifty /bank nifty could get to.
Levels for - 14 Oct 2021EXPLANATION : This is a 45 min time frame chart of HDFCBANK , It has been in a consolidate for day and has formed an Ascending triangle pattern . If give a strong breakout and broke its supply zone with high volumes and retest the same , I am bullish on HDFCBANK . If give a strong breakdown and broke its trendline support with high volumes and retest the same , I am bearish on HDFCBANK .
If you like the analysis give a Like // Follow for more updates , let me know in comments below :)
HDFC Bank - Real Options Strategy ExecutedHDFC BANK - OPTIONS STRATEGY EXECUTED IN MY ACCOUNT
While I was getting ready to write a post cum video on the Infosys Strategy, I looked at my holdings and realized that HDFC Bank was once again at a make-or-break juncture - 1630. It has turned down from this level quite a few times. So exited half my position at the price and banked the gains.
This helped me regain objectivity related to the scrip. And immediately, I thought of checking if I could fund a Bull Call Spread in HDFC Bank with the proceeds that I received from the sale of equity in part. I know smart readers are now calculating how many shares I would have sold and that is OK! I like that kind of approach as it would help you develop your mind to your benefit. I also do such things so I know this is a natural reaction.
HDFC Bank is behaving like TCS as it is trying to scale higher highs as it gets ready to face the results that are due on 15-10-21. I know it is a bit too early to execute a strategy for the results but I had the funds today so for me, today was a good day.
I chose to create a Bull CE Spread as under:--
Long 1620 CE at 44.30
Short 1640 CE at 36.05
When I executed the strategy, the spot was at 1629.65-1630. EOD is at the same level and my strategy is at cost.
Please have a look at the video to know more about the details. In case you are reading this on your mobile App, you may not see the link. Please use a web version and you will see the video link in it. This issue has been flagged with Investing.com already.
I will get back to you on 18-11-21 as that is when the scrip would react to the Q2 results.
If you want to test a strategy like this, please remember that I am sharing this only for educational and informational purposes only. I believe that by sharing to the extent I can via such posts and videos, even I am able to improve my learnings and readings of the market.
Please take good care of you capital as you would be in the game as long as your capital is alive - money would eventually come in once you are good at the process that you end up developing for yourself.
Till we meet again,
Please keep learning, implementing & making money!
Best wishes,
Umesh
12-10-21
BAJFINANCE iNTRADAY Trade - 17-05-20121NSE:BAJFINANCE
buy above 5460 (15min closing basis)
SL: below 5430 (15min closing basis)
Target: 5500, 5515, 5525++
Disclaimer -
This is our personal view and this analysis is only for educational purposes.
Please consult your advisor before investing or trading.
You are solely responsible for any decisions you take on basis of our research.
IT "glitch" drags Nifty below 17950 from 18040+NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -11-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17867.55
H 18041.95
L 17839.10
C 17945.95
EOD - +50.75 points /+0.28%
SGX Nifty at 1930h =20points
FII DII = -1676 Crores.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened a mild gap up and then sold off to 8-10 low level and then, made a strong and sustained recovery to clear 18000 in style and then topped 18040 as well.
However, by then FTSE had opened and the usual nervousness walked in and then there was a sell-off over the next 3 hours.
Yet again, Nifty ended the day 90+ points below the ATH level achieved during the day.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 87
Net = -15
POSITIVES
Nifty hit an All Time High above 18000.
Nifty ended at yet another ATH close.
HDFC was very volatile but settled in the green on an EOD basis.
HDFC Bank seems to be pricing in a good result like how TCS did.
Bank Nifty hit a new ATH and also ended at a new ATH.
NEGATIVES
IT big heads dragged Nifty in a big way.
I do not recall TCS falling more than 3% post results in the recent past. Though this was to happen as it was at a very critical level below 4000.
Reliance lost more than 60 points after hitting an ATH of 2720.
TRADING RANGE FOR the coming week
Nifty 17700-750 is the support base. I am not sure about the resistance levels as price action in Infosys, Wipro, as well as HDFC Bank may keep driving Nifty as they get ready to receive their answer papers during the next few days.
Bank Nifty Support = 37500-700 appears to be a good support area. Since the ATH was hit today, I will let the index play its game for a couple of days and see where it ends the week before commenting on any resistance levels.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Nifty low for the day was just 1 point below 8-10 low and high for the day was 100 points above 8-10 high and yet Nifty managed to close only 50 points above 8-10 Close.
This seems to be a mathematical play!
The contribution by Nifty top 5 performers fell short by 15 points from the top 5 draggers of the Index. This is the kind of weakness and negativity that was driven by the IT index and that is why the subject line of the post.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
11-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
TCS Q2 results based strategies - OutcomeTCS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES - OUTCOME
The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results today after market hours. This is the reason I thought of doing a post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking and till the time of writing this post and creating the video related to it, I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know in the weekend post.
TCS hit a New All-Time High of 3989 and at the time of writing this post, it is around 3950. I already have other FNO positions on so I do not have spare capital to deploy so this approach.
Please watch the video to know how the strategies performed and what I ended up doing when the scrip fell down by 6%+.
I have chosen to track the following strategies:
Bull Call Spread:
In creating the spread, I have bought 3960 CE and shorted 4000 CE. The details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video.
In the worst case, there is a loss of 4K and in the best case, a gain of 6K. In my view, this is a good risk-reward considering the fact that there could be wild movements in a scrip post its results and TCS has moved 2-3% in the past around such events.
Outcome:
At 1100hours =
Spread Value When Created = 14
At 1100h = 03
Being a Bull CE spread, the value should have gone up for us to make money
Gain / Loss = -11*300 = -3300
Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 80,000
ROI = -4%
ATM Short Straddle:
In this, I have shorted 3960 CE as well as PE. the details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video.
The margin requirement is quite high so even if I create a strategy by EOD, I would not go for this. The Max gain is around 65K and obviously, the loss in unlimited as Options are being shorted. Though one can always keep an SL or exit when the spot reaches a pre-decided level.
Generally, short strategies are useful when the implied volatility is high prior to the event and the position gains as the VIX cools off after the event.
At 1100hours =
Straddle Value When Created = 225
At 1100h = 293
Being a Short Straddle, the value should have gone DOWN for us to make money.
Gain / Loss = -68*300 = -20400
Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 350,000
ROI = -5.83%
I will post an outcome video as well on 11-10-21 so stay tuned!
Till then,
Keep learning & making money but at all times, please assign topmost priority to your capital and do all that is needed to stay in the game with it!
Best wishes.
Umesh
8-10-21 & 11-10-21
Levels for - 11 Oct 2021EXPLANATION : This is a 30 min time frame chart of HDFCBANK . It has formed Triple top pattern breakout & retest , If stock give a breakdown and broke it's trendline support , I am bearish on HDFCBANK . If stock bounce back I am bullish on HDFCBANK .
If you like this analysis give a Like // Follow for more updates , let me know in comments below :)
HDFC bank is at Major resistance zoneHdfc bankis trading near its major resistance keep an alert as it can give a big breakout for upside, the resistance zone has formed on the all time high which is making it a reliable and a crucial level for the overall stock.
Think buy only after breakout with small SL
It can give a decent Risk to Reward trade
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17810.55
H 17857.55
L 17763.80
C 17790.35
EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82%
SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points
FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle.
The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively.
It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800.
The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20
Net = +78
POSITIVES
Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do.
ICICI Bank closed above 700.
Reliance held on to the greener zone.
HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels.
NEGATIVES
HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750.
Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000.
TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21
Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900.
Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday.
The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods.
Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
7-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---