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NIFTY 50 Analysis As shown on the chart, the double top pattern has occurred 3 times in the recent few months. Each time, the market has corrected significantly.
The entire second week of February, Nifty has been moving in a tight 200 point range, with buying coming at 15000 levels and strong selling at 15,250 levels. With the current levels of volatility and narrow contracting range, I believe that the market will be looking at an expansion in the coming week/s. If the Nifty closes below the neckline (marked on the chart) this will complete the "M" pattern and will result in a downward expansion. Whereas, a closing above 15,250 will result in a continuation of the general bullish trend.
Although, I am still bullish on the Indian Markets, there is a strong chance that a downward breakout may occur.
Reasons:
- The strongest sector in the recent weeks post budget, has been the financial and Infra sector. BankNifty is stuck in the middle of the range and Friday's morning rally, did not see much follow through on the upside either.
- Large sectors like IT and Pharma have also seen a cool off and not seen much of a rally post budget either.
- Market has created a large 200 point (1.4%) gap. Gaps create space for demand in the market.
Giving due consideration to the heavy liquidity in the economy, the sentiment around the market seems to be fearful. Hence, I believe that investors are likely to book some profits and drive the market below 15,000.
If the market does give a close below 15,000, it could move towards filling the gap.
Since, the general trend remains bullish, it would not be wise to take huge short positions by putting more capital at risk.
The short trade will only be viable as long as the NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 15,000 ON THE 1 HOUR time frame. The stop loss for the view the position will then be the current high point of 15,250.
These are my personal views and I reserve the right to be wrong.
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LONG HEDGE ARE OFTEN USED BY COMPANIES
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NIFTY | Expecting the gap to be sealed @ 11076 (Risky trade)NIFTY | Expecting the gap to be sealed @ 11076, NASDAQ was gap up too 2 days ago + RSI bearish divergence in 30 min's time frame.
CMP : 11228
Falling which hopefully can get some dips in good stocks.
Instead of buying PUT can consider selling 11300 CE in Oct 8th expiry.
Reliance, Reliance and RelianceAs we have seen reliance followed our targets of top levels. Now what we have to keep in mind is 1500 levels acts as a strong or rather very strong resistance. Now we have to keep in mind reliance can even touch 1750 levels once(ONCE), Mark it and it would be only factor to lift up nifty, and in other terms if it does goes up, will deny all other stocks which have made a particular pattern of selling.Delivery % doesn't looks good. There is long buildups on 1500's strike and above. Coming to the point i will give calls on both side.
INITIALLY i feel that reliance may if open can do a gapup if not down or same chain movement.
Buy above 1456 for targets 1465 1471 and 1481 and if 5 min candle stays above 1481 then will go 1503 and come back to its initial position.
AND initially anything above red line is bearish for which we need volumes to break!!
Short only below 1402 for simple target of 1383 and if breaks then 1361 can be seen for sure. NOW to keep in mind is below 1362 we can see it come down to fill gaps!