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HINDUNILVR: Attempting Rising Wedge Breakout Post Q1 FY 26NSE:HINDUNILVR Attempting Rising Wedge Breakout: A Technical Revival Story Worth Watching Post Decent above Estimate Volume Growth and Q1 FY26 Results. Price Action: • Trading within a well-defined rising wedge pattern from February 2025 to July 2025 • The stock experienced a significant decline from its peak around ₹3,035 in September 2024 to a low of ₹2,136 in March 2025 • Currently trading at ₹2,521.20 with a gain of ₹83.80 (+3.44%) • The stock appears to be attempting a breakout from the upper trendline of the rising wedge Volume Spread Analysis: • Volume has been relatively subdued during the consolidation phase within the wedge • Recent sessions show increased volume activity with 5.51M shares traded, indicating renewed interest • The volume pattern suggests accumulation during the lower levels of the wedge formation • Volume spike accompanies the current breakout attempt, confirming the move Key Technical Levels: Key Support Levels: • Immediate support: ₹2,420-₹2,450 (recent consolidation zone) • Strong support: ₹2,300-₹2,350 (lower trendline of the rising wedge) • Critical support: ₹2,136 (52-week low established in March 2025) Resistance Levels: • Immediate resistance: ₹2,550-₹2,580 (upper trendline breakout zone) • Next resistance: ₹2,700-₹2,750 (previous swing highs) • Major resistance: ₹3,035 (52-week high from September 2024) Technical Patterns: • Rising Wedge Pattern: A bearish reversal pattern that has been forming since Feb 2025 • Breakout Attempt: The stock is testing the upper boundary of the rising wedge with increased volume • Higher Lows Formation: Despite the wedge pattern, the stock has been making higher lows since March 2025 Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: • Primary Entry: On sustained breakout above ₹2,550 with volume confirmation • Secondary Entry: On pullback to ₹2,480-₹2,500 after successful breakout • Aggressive Entry: Current levels around ₹2,520 for short-term traders Exit Levels: • Target 1: ₹2,680-₹2,700 (8-10% upside potential) • Target 2: ₹2,850-₹2,900 (15-18% upside potential) • Target 3: ₹3,000-₹3,050 (20-25% upside potential) Stop-Loss Strategy: • Conservative: ₹2,350 (below the rising wedge support) • Moderate: ₹2,420 (below immediate support zone) • Tight: ₹2,480 (for breakout trades) Position Sizing: • Conservative investors: 2-3% of portfolio allocation • Moderate risk appetite: 4-5% of portfolio allocation • Aggressive traders: 6-8% of portfolio allocation Risk Management: • Risk-Reward Ratio: Maintain a minimum 1:2 ratio for all entries • Trailing Stop: Implement a 5-7% trailing stop after 10% gains • Partial Profit Booking: Book 30% profits at Target 1, 40% at Target 2, and hold 30% for Target 3 Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: FMCG Sector Overview: • BSE FMCG index was up 1 per cent, as compared to a 0.5 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex • The FMCG sector is showing resilience amid broader market volatility • Rural demand recovery is expected to support sector growth in the coming quarters Financial Performance: • TTM Revenue: 63,928 Cr, TTM Profit: 10,827 Cr • The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 10% over the past five years • Annual revenue for March 2025 reached Rs 63,121 Crore, up 2%. Net profit rose 3.8% to Rs 10,671 Crore Valuation Metrics: • HUL's stock trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio around 55.70x, slightly below its historical averages (~61x over 5 years) • Stock is trading at 12 times its book value • Market Cap: 5,92,476 Crore (down -6.82% in 1 year) Business Fundamentals: • Promoter Holding: 61.9% • Strong brand portfolio across multiple FMCG categories • Extensive distribution network covering both urban and rural markets • Urban markets contribute 60 per cent to HUL's sales, while rural markets comprise the rest Recent Developments: • Motilal Oswal analysts believe that volume growth for HUL has reached its lowest point and foresee a gradual recovery in volumes during FY25 • Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate HUL's net profit to decline 1.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹2,540.6 crore • The company is expected to benefit from improving rural demand and premiumization trends My Take: • HUL remains a defensive play in the FMCG space with strong market positioning • The technical breakout attempt coincides with expectations of volume recovery • Long-term investors can consider accumulating on dips while traders can play the breakout momentum Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:HINDUNILVRLong
by Karanshah137
12
CRAFTSMAN: Rising Wedge Breakout Post Q1 FY26NSE:CRAFTSMAN Breaks Above Rising Wedge: A Bullish Technical Play Worth Watching Post Decent Q1 FY26 Results Price Action Analysis: Current Price Movement: • Current Price: ₹6,863.50 (as of July 30, 2025) • Day's Performance: +₹415.50 (+6.44%) • Volume: 91.27K shares • 52-Week Range: ₹3,700 - ₹7,121.25 Price Structure Analysis: • Trend: Strong uptrend from March 2025 lows • Higher Highs: Consistent formation since March 2025 • Higher Lows: Well-defined support levels during pullbacks • Momentum: Acceleration post-breakout with gap-up opening Volume Spread Analysis: • Volume Patterns: Decreasing volume during the consolidation phase • Breakout Volume: Significant surge indicating institutional participation • Volume Profile: Above-average participation at key resistance levels Key Price Levels: • All-Time High: ₹7,121.25 (immediate target zone) • Breakout Level: ₹6,500 (now acting as support) • Previous Resistance: ₹6,200-6,300 (now support zone) • Major Support: ₹5,800-6,000 (rising trendline confluence) Base Formation: • Primary Base: Extended consolidation between ₹4,800-6,500 from March to July 2025 • Duration: Approximately 4 months • Depth: Shallow correction of 15-20% from previous highs • Character: Healthy sideways movement with diminishing volatility Key Support and Resistance Levels: • Major Resistance: ₹7,121.25 (all-time high) • Immediate Resistance: ₹6,900-7,000 zone • Strong Support: ₹6,500 (breakout level) • Major Support: ₹5,800-6,000 (rising wedge upper trendline) • Critical Support: ₹5,200-5,300 (previous consolidation zone) Technical Pattern: Rising Wedge Breakout: • Pattern: Bullish breakout from a rising wedge formation • Formation Period: March 2025 to July 2025 • Breakout Level: ₹6,500 approximately • Volume Confirmation: Strong volume spike on breakout day Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: • Primary Entry: ₹6,850-6,900 (current levels on any minor dip) • Aggressive Entry: ₹6,800-6,850 (immediate entry) • Conservative Entry: ₹6,650-6,700 (on pullback to breakout level) Target Levels: • Target 1: ₹7,200-7,300 (immediate resistance zone) • Target 2: ₹7,800-8,000 (measured move target) • Target 3: ₹8,500-9,000 (cup and handle projection) Stop-Loss Levels: • Aggressive Stop: ₹6,400 (below breakout level) • Conservative Stop: ₹6,200 (below rising wedge support) • Trailing Stop: Move to breakeven once Target 1 is achieved Position Sizing: • Risk per trade: Maximum 2% of portfolio • Position size calculation based on stop-loss distance • For ₹6,850 entry with ₹6,400 stop: Risk = ₹450 per share • Recommended allocation: 1-2% of equity portfolio Risk Management: Risk Factors: • Market-wide correction could drag the stock down • Sector rotation out of engineering/auto components • Profit booking at all-time high levels • Global economic headwinds affecting the auto sector Risk Mitigation: • Strict stop-loss adherence • Partial profit booking at each target level • Position size limiting to manage portfolio risk • Monitoring broader market sentiment Exit Strategy: • Book 30% profits at Target 1 • Book another 40% at Target 2 • Trail remaining 30% with rising stop-loss Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: Business Overview: • Diversified engineering company with vertically integrated manufacturing • Three main segments: Automotive Powertrain (51%), Aluminium Products (21%), Industrial & Engineering (28%) • Market capitalization: ₹16,357 crores • Revenue: ₹6,323 crores with profit of ₹211 crores (TTM) Recent Financial Performance(Q1 FY26): • Q1 FY26 results: Revenue of ₹1,784 crores, profit of ₹70 crores • PAT growth: 31% YoY in Q1 FY26 • Segment performance: Aluminium Products revenue up 102.82% YoY • Powertrain revenue: ₹496.41 crores (up 19.23% YoY) Sector Dynamics: • Automotive sector recovery post-pandemic • Increasing adoption of aluminium components for weight reduction • Growing demand for powertrain components in commercial vehicles • Beneficiary of the Make in India initiative Key Clients and Market Position: • Supplies to tier 1 OEMs including Tata Motors, Cummins, M&M, Royal Enfield • Strong presence in commercial vehicles, two-wheelers, and tractor segments • Established player in aluminium die-casting and machining Growth Drivers: • Capacity utilization improvements • Focus on higher-margin aluminium products • Expansion in industrial and engineering segments • Increasing content per vehicle trends Analyst Outlook after Q1 FY26: • Average 1-year price target: ₹5,754 (though this appears conservative given current price) • Price target range: ₹4,318 to ₹8,085 • Positive sentiment on aluminium business growth • Capex guidance of ₹100-120 crores annually for maintenance and debottlenecking My Take: The technical setup for NSE:CRAFTSMAN presents a compelling bullish case with the successful breakout from a rising wedge pattern, supported by strong volume and a healthy fundamental backdrop. The stock is well-positioned to test new highs, though traders should remain disciplined with risk management given the proximity to all-time high levels. The diversified business model and strong sectoral tailwinds provide fundamental support to the technical breakout. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:CRAFTSMANLong
by Karanshah137
10
TATACHEM: Breaks out of Cup & Handle Breakout Post Q1 FY 26NSE:TATACHEM Breaks Out: The Cup and Handle Formation That Could Signal New Highs Post Good Q1 FY 26 with Margin Expansion. Price Action: Trend Structure • Long-term uptrend intact with a higher lows pattern since March 2025 • Strong momentum breakout above key resistance at 1,000 levels • Price action showing bullish continuation after brief consolidation • Current trading above all major moving averages (20, 50, 200 EMA) Breakout Characteristics • Clean breakout above resistance • Volume expansion confirming institutional participation • No immediate rejection at breakout level, suggesting strength • Momentum favouring further upside continuation Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Pattern: • Significant volume spike during the breakout phase in July 2025 • Volume contraction during handle formation (typical healthy pattern) • Above-average volumes during cup formation, indicating accumulation • Recent volume expansion suggests institutional buying interest Volume Confirmation: • Breakout supported by 2-3x average daily volume • Previous resistance turning into support with volume backing • Accumulation-distribution pattern favourable for continued upside Chart Pattern: • The chart displays a classic Cup and Handle pattern formation spanning from Jan 2025 to July 2025 • The "Cup" formation shows a rounded bottom with the low around 750-780 levels during March 2025 • The "Handle" represents the consolidation phase between June-July 2025, around 920-960 levels • Clear breakout above the 1,000 resistance level with strong volume confirmation Key Technical Levels • Primary Support: 920-950 (handle low and recent consolidation) • Secondary Support: 850-880 (mid-cup level) • Major Support: 750-780 (cup bottom) • Immediate Resistance: 1,050-1,080 (psychological levels) • Target Resistance: 1,200-1,250 (measured move from cup depth) Trade Setup and Strategy: Entry Levels: • Aggressive Entry: 1,000-1,020 (on breakout confirmation) • Conservative Entry: 950-980 (on pullback to handle support) • Scale-in Entry: 920-950 (major support retest) Exit Levels: • Target 1: 1,100-1,120 (initial resistance cluster) • Target 2: 1,200-1,250 (measured move target) • Target 3: 1,300-1,350 (extension target based on cup depth) Stop-Loss Strategy: • Initial Stop-Loss: 920 (below handle low) • Trailing Stop: 950 after Target 1 achievement • Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 to 1:4 on conservative entry Position Sizing and Risk Management: Position Sizing: • Allocate 2-3% of portfolio for this trade • Calculate position size based on stop-loss distance • Consider scaling in approach for better average entry Risk Management: • Maximum risk per trade: 1-2% of total capital • Use position sizing formula: Risk Amount ÷ (Entry - Stop Loss) • Maintain diversification across sectors and market caps Risk Factors: • Broader market correction could impact individual stock performance • Sector-specific headwinds in the chemicals industry • Global economic slowdown affecting demand Fundamental and Sectoral Backdrop: Recent Financial Performance: • Q1 FY26 results showed consolidated revenue of ₹3,719 Cr with EBITDA of ₹649 Cr and PAT of ₹316 Cr • Standalone revenue at ₹1,169 Cr, up 11.65% compared to Q1FY25, with PAT of ₹307 Cr, up 20% • Stock gained 16.66% over the last three months • Strong operational performance supporting technical breakout Sectoral Outlook: • The Chemicals market in India is projected to grow by 3.46% (2025-2029), resulting in a market volume of US$35.4bn in 2029 • India's speciality chemicals market is expected to increase at a CAGR of 12% to US$64 billion by 2025 • The chemical industry, currently valued at around US$250 billion, aims to grow to US$300 billion by 2025 • The sector is projected to grow by 11 to 12 per cent during 2021–27, tripling its global market share by 2040 Investment Thesis: • Strong sectoral tailwinds supporting long-term growth • Company's positioning in the speciality chemicals segment • Potential beneficiary of India's manufacturing growth story • Technical breakout aligning with fundamental strength Key Monitoring Points: Technical Triggers: • Sustain above 1,000 levels for breakout confirmation • Volume patterns on any pullbacks • Price action at target levels for profit booking decisions Fundamental Catalysts: • Quarterly earnings performance and guidance • New project announcements or capacity expansions • Sectoral policy developments and government initiatives • Global chemical prices and demand trends Risk Monitoring: • A break below 920 levels would invalidate the bullish setup • Broader market sentiment and global risk-off scenarios • Sector rotation away from chemicals and industrials • Company-specific news flow and management commentary My Take: The combination of technical breakout, strong fundamentals, and positive sector outlook makes NSE:TATACHEM an attractive investment proposition at current levels, with the cup and handle pattern suggesting potential for significant upside over the next 6-12 months. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:TATACHEMLong
by Karanshah137
8
RAIN: Breaks Out of Rising Wedge Pattern Signals Fresh UptrendNSE:RAIN Breaks Out: Rising Wedge Pattern Signals Potential Bullish Run to 180+ Levels Signals Fresh Uptrend After Months of Consolidation Price Action: - NSE:RAIN has been trading within a well-defined rising wedge pattern since March 2025 - The stock has recently broken out above the upper trendline of the wedge at approximately 160 levels - Current price of 160.74 represents a significant move above the key resistance zone - The breakout is accompanied by increased volume, suggesting genuine buying interest Volume Spread Analysis: • Volume breakout accompanied the wedge pattern breakout • Higher volumes during up moves compared to down moves indicate bullish participation • Volume spike visible during the recent breakout at 160+ levels • Average volume of 972K around today, 3.59M shares with recent surge to higher levels Base Formation and Accumulation Zone: • The stock established a strong base between 117-125 levels from March to July 2025 • Multiple retests of the 117 support level showed strong buying interest • Base formation lasted approximately 4 months, indicating thorough accumulation • Volume during base formation remained relatively stable with occasional spikes Key Support and Resistance Levels: • Primary Support: 117.06 (marked as swing low and base support) • Secondary Support: 140-145 zone (previous resistance turned support) • Immediate Resistance: 165-170 zone (next major hurdle) • Target Resistance: 180-185 zone (measured move target) • 52-week High: 197.00 (ultimate resistance level) Technical Patterns: Rising Wedge Breakout Pattern: • Clear rising wedge pattern formed over 4-5 months • Lower highs and higher lows converged into a wedge formation • Breakout occurred at 160+ levels with strong volume confirmation • Pattern suggests continuation of the broader uptrend Trend Analysis: • Long-term trend: Bullish (higher highs and higher lows since March 2025) • Medium-term trend: Bullish breakout from consolidation • Short-term trend: Strong bullish momentum post-breakout • Moving averages alignment suggests sustained upward momentum Chart Patterns and Indicators: • Cup and handle formation visible in the broader timeframe • Multiple flag patterns during the consolidation phase • Price above all key moving averages, indicating bullish sentiment Trade Setup and Strategy: Entry Levels: • Aggressive Entry: 155-160 levels (on any minor pullback) • Conservative Entry: 145-150 levels (on deeper retracement to support) • Breakout Entry: Above 165 levels with volume confirmation • averaging between 150-160 for position building Exit Levels and Targets: • Target 1: 180-185 levels (initial profit booking - 15-20% upside) • Target 2: 195-200 levels (testing previous highs - 25-30% upside) • Target 3: 220-230 levels (extended target - 40-45% upside) • Swing high exit: Trail stops below key support levels Stop-Loss Strategy: • Initial Stop-Loss: Below 140 levels (10-12% risk from current levels) • Trailing Stop-Loss: Below 150 levels once 180 is achieved • Pattern Stop-Loss: Below the wedge support around 145 levels • Time-based stop: Exit if no progress in 2-3 months Position Sizing and Risk Management: • Maximum position size: 2-3% of total portfolio • Risk per trade: Not more than 1% of portfolio value • Scale in approach: 50% at entry, 30% on dip, 20% on breakout confirmation • Maintain a risk-reward ratio of a minimum of 1:3 Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: Company Overview: • NSE:RAIN is one of the world's largest producers of calcined petroleum coke, coal tar pitch and other high-quality basic and speciality chemicals • Market Cap: 5,405 Crore with Revenue: 15,472 Cr • Promoter Holding: 41.2% indicating stable management control Financial Health Assessment: • The company has a low interest coverage ratio, which poses some financial risk • Net Profit: ₹-115.10Cr as on March 2025 (Q4 FY25) showing current losses • The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 4.46% over the past five years • Recent debt reduction efforts as management focuses on prepaying obligations Business Segments Performance: • Carbon Business: Environment-friendly and energy-efficient practices have made RAIN's carbon business highly profitable and sustainable • The carbon business co-generates energy at six calcined petroleum coke plants with a combined power-generation capacity of approximately 135 MW • The speciality chemicals segment is showing resilience despite market challenges Sector Outlook and Industry Trends: • In 2025, the industry is expected to continue its recovery, adjusting to new market drivers while balancing short- and long-term goals • Chemical industry focusing on decarbonization and innovation initiatives • India Ratings affirms Rain Industries' credit rating at IND A/Stable with stable outlook and improved operational outlook Key Risk Factors: • Cyclical nature of the chemical industry affecting margins • High debt levels and interest coverage concerns • Global economic slowdown has an impact on demand • Raw material price volatility • Environmental regulations affecting operations Positive Catalysts • Debt reduction strategy showing management commitment • Stable credit rating with improved operational outlook • Strong technical breakout indicating renewed investor interest • Global chemical industry recovery supporting sector sentiment • Energy co-generation capabilities providing cost advantages Risk Assessment and Monitoring: Key Levels to Watch: • Break below 145: Bearish signal, consider exit • Sustain above 165: Bullish confirmation for higher targets • Volume patterns: Declining volume on up moves would be concerning • Sector rotation: Monitor chemical sector performance relative to the broader market Regular Review Parameters: • Weekly closing above key moving averages • Monthly volume trends and institutional participation • Quarterly earnings performance and guidance • Industry developments and regulatory changes • Management commentary on debt reduction progress Exit Triggers: • Fundamental deterioration in business metrics • Break of key technical support levels • Adverse sector developments • Better opportunities in other stocks/sectors • Achievement of target levels with profit booking My Take: NSE:RAIN presents a technically attractive setup with the rising wedge breakout, but investors should be cautious about the fundamental challenges. The trade setup offers good risk-reward ratios for short to medium-term positions, while long-term investors should wait for clearer signs of fundamental improvement. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:RAINLong
by Karanshah137
2
ELGIEQUIP: Breaks Out of its Ascending Triangle PatternNSE:ELGIEQUIP Breaks Out of its Ascending Triangle Pattern: This Industrial Giant Could Be Your Next Multi-Bagger as Manufacturing Boom Accelerates Price Action: - Current Price: ₹589.75 (as of chart date) - 52-Week High: ₹752.95 - 52-Week Low: ₹401.00 - Daily Change: +₹35.95 (+6.41%) - Market Cap: ₹18,703 Cr. Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Profile Assessment: - Breakout Volume: 6.8M shares (significantly above average) - Volume Trend: Increasing volume during breakout phase - Volume-Price Relationship: Positive correlation during an uptrend - Distribution vs Accumulation: Clear accumulation pattern visible Volume Indicators: - 20-day Average Volume: 1.24M shares - Breakout Volume Confirmation: Yes (above average volume) - Volume Concentration: Higher volumes at support levels indicate buying interest My Key Technical Observations: - Stock has successfully broken out from a major ascending triangle pattern - Strong volume confirmation on the breakout day - Price action showing momentum acceleration after months of consolidation - Clear trend reversal from the March 2025 lows Pattern Recognition and Structure Analysis: Primary Pattern: Ascending Triangle Breakout - Formation Period: Jan 2025 to July 2025 (7 months) - Resistance Level: ₹570-580 (horizontal resistance) - Support Trendline: Rising from ₹401 lows in March 2025 - Breakout Confirmation: Volume spike accompanying price breakout - Pattern Target: ₹680-700 (measuring the height of the triangle base) Secondary Patterns: - Double Bottom formation at ₹401 levels (March 2025) - Flag and pennant consolidations during the uptrend - Higher highs and higher lows structure since March 2025 Key Support and Resistance: Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: ₹600-610 (psychological level) - Major Resistance: ₹650-680 (pattern target zone) - 52 Week High Resistance: ₹750-755 (previous swing high) Key Support Levels: - Immediate Support: ₹560-570 (breakout level, now support) - Strong Support: ₹520-530 (previous consolidation zone) - Major Support: ₹480-490 (ascending trendline support) - Critical Support: ₹440-450 (50% retracement of current move) Base Formation Analysis: - Primary Base: ₹480-580 consolidation zone (7 months) - Base Characteristics: Tight consolidation with reduced volatility - Base Quality: High-quality base with multiple retests of support/resistance - Accumulation Evidence: Consistent volume during the consolidation phase Trade Setup and Entry Strategy: Primary Trade Setup - Momentum Play: - Entry Strategy: Buy on pullback to ₹570-575 (breakout retest) - Alternative Entry: Current levels for aggressive traders - Entry Rationale: Ascending triangle breakout with volume confirmation Secondary Trade Setup - Swing Trade: - Entry Strategy: Accumulate on dips to the ₹520-530 zone - Entry Rationale: Strong support zone with multiple bounce history - Time Horizon: 3-6 months Entry Levels and Execution: Aggressive Entry (Short-term): - Entry Price: ₹585-590 (current market price) - Quantity: 30% of planned position - Rationale: Momentum continuation play Conservative Entry (Medium-term): - Entry Price: ₹570-575 (breakout retest) - Quantity: 50% of the planned position - Rationale: Better risk-reward ratio Value Entry (Long-term): - Entry Price: ₹520-530 (support zone) - Quantity: 70% of planned position - Rationale: High probability support zone Exit Levels and Profit Targets: Short-term Targets (1-3 months): - Target 1: ₹620-630 (5-7% upside from current levels) - Target 2: ₹650-660 (10-12% upside) - Target 3: ₹680-690 (pattern target) Medium-term Targets (3-12 months): - Target 1: ₹700-720 (psychological resistance) - Target 2: ₹750-760 (52 Week high retest) - Target 3: ₹800-820 (extension target) Exit Strategy: - Partial Profit Taking: 25% at each target level - Trailing Stop: Implement after reaching the first target - Final Exit: Technical breakdown below key support Stop-Loss Strategy: Initial Stop-Loss Levels: - Aggressive Traders: ₹555 (5% below entry) - Conservative Traders: ₹530 (below support zone) - Long-term Investors: ₹480 (below ascending trendline) Stop-Loss Management: - Initial Risk: 5-10% of entry price - Trailing Strategy: Move stop-loss to breakeven after 5% profit - Progressive Tightening: Reduce stop distance as price advances Position Sizing and Risk Management: Position Sizing Framework: - Conservative Approach: 2-3% of portfolio - Moderate Approach: 3-5% of portfolio - Aggressive Approach: 5-7% of portfolio Risk Management Rules: - Maximum Risk per Trade: 2% of total capital - Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 for all trades - Portfolio Concentration: Maximum 10% in a single stock - Sector Exposure: Maximum 20% in the capital goods sector Capital Allocation Strategy: - 30% on initial breakout entry - 40% on pullback to support - 30% reserved for additional weakness Sectoral Backdrop: Capital Goods Sector Overview: - Sector Performance: Outperforming broader markets in 2025 - Government Support: PLI schemes boosting manufacturing - Infrastructure Push: Continued focus on industrial development - Export Opportunities: Growing global demand for Indian machinery Industrial Compressor Market Dynamics: - Market Size: India air compressor market valued at $1.09 billion (2023) - Growth Projection: Expected to reach $1.64 billion by 2030 - CAGR: 5.4% growth from 2024 to 2030 - Volume Growth: From 64,000 units (2023) to 120,000 units (2030) Manufacturing Sector Tailwinds: - Target Achievement: Manufacturing sector expected to reach $1 trillion by 2025 - Industrial Growth: Rapid expansion in the automotive and electronics sectors - Policy Support: Make in India and PLI schemes driving demand - Infrastructure Development: Continued capex cycle supporting industrial equipment demand Fundamental Backdrop: Company Overview: - Business: Leading manufacturer of air compressors and pneumatic tools - Market Position: Strong presence in the industrial compressor segment - Product Range: Oil-lubricated piston compressors, reciprocating compressors - Employee Strength: 2,172 employees Financial Highlights: - Market Capitalization: ₹ 18,703 Cr. - EPS (TTM): ₹11.05 - Book Value per Share: ₹58.90 - Price to Book Ratio: 10 - Dividend Yield: 0.37% Recent Performance: - Q4 FY25 Revenue: ₹ 993 crore - Q4 FY25 Net Profit: ₹102.00 crore - Annual Revenue (FY25): ₹3,510 crore - Annual Net Profit (FY25): ₹350 crore Earnings Outlook: - Next Earnings Report: July 30, 2025 (Expected) - Annual General Meeting: August 12, 2025 (Expected) - Dividend Declared: ₹2.20 per share for FY25 - Management Assessment: Economic quality in terms of earnings and margins Risk Factors and Considerations: Technical Risks: - False Breakout Risk: Potential failure to sustain above resistance - Market Correlation: High correlation with broader market movements - Sector Rotation: Risk of funds moving away from capital goods - Volume Sustainability: Need for continued volume support Fundamental Risks: - Economic Slowdown: Impact on industrial capex cycles - Competition Intensity: Pressure from domestic and international players - Raw Material Costs: Inflation in steel and component prices - Export Dependency: Global economic uncertainty affecting demand Market Risks: - Interest Rate Sensitivity: Impact of monetary policy changes - Currency Fluctuation: Export revenue exposure to forex volatility - Regulatory Changes: Potential policy modifications affecting industry - Liquidity Risk: Lower institutional participation during market stress My Take: NSE:ELGIEQUIP presents a compelling technical setup with its successful breakout from a 7-month ascending triangle pattern. The combination of strong volume confirmation, favourable sectoral tailwinds, and robust fundamental positioning makes it an attractive investment opportunity. The stock is well-positioned to benefit from India's manufacturing sector growth and the expanding industrial compressor market. The risk-reward profile appears favourable for both short-term momentum traders and long-term investors, with multiple entry strategies catering to different risk appetites. However, proper position sizing and disciplined stop-loss management remain crucial for the successful execution of this trade setup. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:ELGIEQUIPLong
by Karanshah137
17
RRKABEL: Cup & Handle Pattern Could Trigger 30% Upside RallyNSE:RRKABEL Perfect Storm: How Cup & Handle Pattern Could Trigger 30% Upside Rally Price Action Analysis: Candlestick Patterns: - Doji Formation: Multiple doji candles during handle formation indicate indecision and potential reversal - Bullish Engulfing: Strong bullish engulfing pattern on breakout day, showing buying pressure - Higher Highs/Lows: Clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows post-breakout - Rejection Candles: Long lower wicks during handle formation show buying support Price Structure: - Swing: Clear swing low at ₹853 (March 2025) and swing high at ₹1,850 (previous year) - Impulse Waves: Strong impulsive moves during the breakout phase indicate institutional participation - Corrective Waves: Orderly corrective structure during cup and handle formation - Price Momentum: Accelerating price momentum post-breakout with minimal pullbacks Market Structure: - Trend: Transition from downtrend to sideways consolidation to uptrend - Support Respect: Multiple tests of support levels without breakdown showing strength - Resistance Breaks: Clean break above multiple resistance levels with conviction - Price Velocity: Increasing price velocity on breakout indicates strong momentum Intraday Price Action: - Opening Gaps: Positive opening gaps during the breakout phase show overnight interest - Closing Strength: Consistent closing in the upper portion of the daily range - Pullback Behaviour: Shallow pullbacks with quick recoveries indicate a strong underlying bid - Volume-Price Sync: Price advances accompanied by volume expansion Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Patterns: - Base Formation: Declining volume during cup formation indicates a lack of selling pressure - Handle Volume: Minimal volume during handle formation, showing controlled supply - Breakout Volume: Significant volume spike on breakout confirming institutional participation - Volume Trend: Above-average volume sustaining post-breakout Volume Indicators: - Accumulation Phase: Volume patterns suggest institutional accumulation during the base - Breakout Confirmation: 2-3x average volume on breakout day - Follow-through: Consistent volume support in subsequent sessions - Volume Price Analysis: Positive volume-price correlation during upward movement Technical Patterns: Primary Pattern: Cup & Handle Formation - Cup Formation: The stock formed a classical cup pattern from Jan 2025 to March 2025, with the left rim at approximately ₹1,420 levels - Handle Formation: A clean handle pattern developed from May to July 2025, showing controlled consolidation with diminishing volume - Breakout Confirmation: Strong breakout above ₹1,420 resistance with increased volume, signalling pattern completion - Pattern Reliability: The 6-month cup formation provides a strong technical foundation for sustained upward momentum Secondary Pattern: Ascending Triangle - Formation Period: June to July 2025 within the handle structure - Resistance Level: Horizontal resistance at ₹1,420 tested multiple times - Support Trend: Rising support line indicating accumulation phase - Breakout: Clean breakout above triangle resistance with volume expansion Support & Resistance Levels: Key Support Levels: - Immediate Support: ₹1,350 (breakout pullback level) - Secondary Support: ₹1,280 (handle low) - Major Support: ₹1,200 (psychological level and previous resistance) - Critical Support: ₹1,080 (cup base level) Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: ₹1,500 (psychological level) - Target Resistance: ₹1,650 (cup depth projection) - Extended Target: ₹1,800 (previous swing high) - Long-term Resistance: ₹1,850 (52-week high) Base Analysis: Base Characteristics: - Base Type: Cup with handle base formation - Duration: 7 months (Jan 2025 to July 2025) - Depth: Approximately 35% correction from highs - Volume Pattern: Declining volume during base formation, expanding on breakout - Base Quality: High-quality base with proper structure and time frame Base Strength Indicators: - Volatility Contraction: Price volatility decreased during handle formation - Volume Dry-up: Minimal selling pressure during consolidation - Support Holding: Multiple tests of support levels without breakdown - Institutional Activity: Likely accumulation phase based on volume patterns Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: - Primary Entry: ₹1,420-1,430 (on breakout confirmation) - Secondary Entry: ₹1,380-1,400 (on pullback to breakout level) - Aggressive Entry: ₹1,350-1,360 (deeper pullback support) Entry Confirmation Signals: - Volume Expansion: Minimum 1.5x average volume on entry - Price Action: Close above ₹1,420 for two consecutive sessions - Momentum: RSI above 50 and trending upward - Moving Averages: Price above 20 and 50-day moving averages Exit Levels: Profit Targets: - Target 1: ₹1,500 (5.5% upside) - Psychological resistance - Target 2: ₹1,650 (16% upside) - Cup depth projection - Target 3: ₹1,800 (27% upside) - Previous swing high - Extended Target: ₹1,850 (30% upside) - 52-week high Exit Strategy: - Partial Profit: Book 25% at Target 1 - Scale Out: 50% at Target 2 - Trailing Stop: Implement 8-10% trailing stop after Target 2 - Final Exit: Complete exit at Target 3 or on stop-loss trigger Stop-Loss Strategy: Stop-Loss Levels: - Conservative: ₹1,320 (7% below entry) - Moderate: ₹1,280 (10% below entry) - Aggressive: ₹1,250 (12% below entry) Stop-Loss Management: - Initial Stop: Below handle low at ₹1,280 - Trailing Stop: Move to breakeven after 5% profit - Progressive Stops: Raise stops with each target achievement - Time Stop: Exit if no progress within 4-6 weeks Position Sizing: Risk-Based Sizing: - Conservative Approach: 1-2% of portfolio risk - Moderate Approach: 2-3% of portfolio risk - Aggressive Approach: 3-5% of portfolio risk Position Calculation: - Risk Per Share: Entry price minus stop-loss level - Position Size: (Portfolio Risk Amount) / (Risk Per Share) - Example: For ₹1,400 entry with ₹1,280 stop, risk = ₹120 per share - Capital Allocation: Maximum 5-8% of total portfolio in a single position Risk Management: Risk Control Measures: - Position Sizing: Limit individual position to 5% of portfolio - Stop-Loss Discipline: Strict adherence to predetermined stop levels - Diversification: Maintain exposure across multiple sectors - Correlation Risk: Avoid concentration in similar cable stocks Risk Monitoring: - Daily Monitoring: Track volume, price action, and sector performance - Weekly Review: Assess progress toward targets and adjust stops - News Monitoring: Stay updated on company and sector developments - Market Correlation: Monitor broader market conditions Sectoral Backdrop: Indian Cable Industry Outlook: - Market Growth: The market is projected to grow from USD 10.01 billion in 2025 to USD 17.08 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.94% during the forecast period - Infrastructure Push: India's National Grid capacity is expanding continuously under the PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan, which is expected to add around 26,988 circuit km capacity by 2024-2025 - Renewable Energy: India has observed a substantial rise in the demand for wires and cables due to the country's ambitious renewable energy goals Growth Drivers: - Smart Cities: The development of smart cities in the country, along with the increase in electronic devices in the household, would increase the demand - Government Investment: India Wires and Cables Market would grow on the back of rapidly growing investment by the government towards the development of infrastructural projects - Electrification: Growing electricity demand is driving transmission and distribution network expansion Fundamental Backdrop: Company Profile: - Market Position: RR Kabel is now the 4th largest W&C Company in India by value. - Global Presence: With a global presence spanning over 67 countries, this electrical company has established a strong international footprint - Financial Performance: Revenue: 7,618 Cr · Profit: 312 Cr Financial Metrics: - Market Cap: Mkt Cap: 16,529 Crore (down -17.5% in 1 year) - Valuation: Stock is trading at 7.68 times its book value - Promoter Holding: Promoter Holding: 61.8% - 52-Week Range: The 52-week high is ₹1825 and the 52-week low is ₹750 Investment Considerations: - Sector Tailwinds: Strong sectoral growth prospects with government infrastructure push - Market Leadership: Established position as the 4th largest cable company in India - International Exposure: Diversified revenue streams from 67 countries - Valuation Concerns: Recent 22.8% decline in market cap may indicate value opportunity My Take: The technical setup for NSE:RRKABEL presents a compelling opportunity with the successful completion of a cup and handle pattern. The 8-month base formation, combined with strong sectoral tailwinds and the company's market leadership position, creates a favourable risk-reward scenario. The breakout above ₹1,420 with volume confirmation suggests institutional participation and potential for sustained upward momentum toward the ₹1,650-1,800 target range. Key success factors include strict adherence to stop-loss levels, proper position sizing, and monitoring of broader market conditions. The sectoral growth prospects, driven by infrastructure development and renewable energy initiatives, provide fundamental support for the technical breakout. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:RRKABELLong
by Karanshah137
27
KIRLPNU: Technical Breakout Attempt That Could Deliver 25% ReturNSE:KIRLPNU : A Technical Breakout Attempt That Could Deliver 25% Returns Price Action Analysis: - Current Price: Rs 1,511.20 - Day's High: Rs 1,817.00 - Day's Low: Rs 953.00 - Volume: 152.69K shares Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Profile: - Significant volume spike during recent breakout attempt - Volume during consolidation was relatively lower - Current volume suggests institutional buying - Volume trend supports price movement authenticity Volume Indicators: - Volume surge above 20-day average confirms breakout attempt - Price-volume divergence absent, indicating a healthy move - The accumulation phase is visible in the volume profile during base formation Key Technical Observations: - The stock has shown a strong upward momentum with a significant gap-up movement - Price has moved from the consolidation zone around Rs 1,350-1,400 to the current levels - Strong volume surge indicating institutional participation - Daily candlestick pattern shows bullish momentum with long green candles Technical Levels & Pattern Analysis: Support Levels: - Immediate Support: Rs 1,350-1,380 (previous resistance turned support) - Strong Support: Rs 1,250-1,300 (multiple touch points) - Major Support: Rs 1,100-1,150 (significant accumulation zone) Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: Rs 1,550-1,580 (red horizontal line marked on chart) - Next Resistance: Rs 1,650-1,700 (psychological level) - Major Resistance: Rs 1,800-1,850 (day's high region) Base Formation: - Multi-month base formation visible from December 2024 to June 2025 - Consolidation range: Rs 1,100 to Rs 1,400 - Base breakout occurred around Rs 1,380-1,400 levels - Volume expansion during breakout confirms strength Technical Patterns: - Cup and Handle pattern completion with breakout attempt - Ascending triangle formation during the consolidation phase - Bullish flag pattern on shorter timeframes - Higher highs and higher lows trend intact Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: - Primary Entry: Rs 1,480-1,520 (current market price on dips) - Secondary Entry: Rs 1,350-1,380 (on pullback to support) - Aggressive Entry: Rs 1,540-1,560 (breakout continuation) Target Levels: - Target 1: Rs 1,650-1,700 (8-12% upside) - Target 2: Rs 1,800-1,850 (18-22% upside) - Target 3: Rs 1,950-2,000 (25-30% upside) Stop Loss Levels: - Conservative Stop Loss: Rs 1,320 (below major support) - Aggressive Stop Loss: Rs 1,420 (below immediate support) - Trailing Stop Loss: Rs 1,480 (after first target achievement) Risk Management: Position Sizing: - Conservative traders: 2-3% of portfolio - Moderate traders: 4-5% of portfolio - Aggressive traders: 6-8% of portfolio - Risk per trade should not exceed 1-2% of total capital Risk Assessment: - Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 to 1:3 (favorable) - Maximum drawdown potential: 12-15% - Probability of success: 65-70% based on technical setup Money Management Rules: - Never risk more than 2% of capital per trade - Use position sizing based on stop loss distance - Maintain diversification across sectors - Book partial profits at predetermined levels Sectoral Backdrop: Industry Overview: - NSE:KIRLPNU is engaged in the manufacturing and service of engineering goods, operating through the Compression Systems Segment, comprising air and gas compressors, air-conditioning and refrigeration - Industrial air compressor market to grow at 8.2% CAGR (2023-2033) with market share to reach US$6.86 Billion by 2033 Market Dynamics: - India Air Compressor Market is forecast to reach $995 million by 2030, after growing at a CAGR of 5.2% during 2024-2030 - Manufacturing is expected to contribute 39.1% share of the market in 2025, as the industry relies heavily on compressed air for pneumatic tools Growth Drivers: - Increasing industrialization and infrastructure development - Rising demand from the manufacturing and automotive sectors - Energy-efficient compressor adoption - Government initiatives supporting industrial growth Fundamental Backdrop: Financial Performance: - Market Cap: 9,797 Crore with Revenue of 1,629 Cr and Profit of 211 Cr - Revenue: ₹583Cr as on March 2025 (Q4 FY25) with Net Profit: ₹81Cr - Annual revenue growth of 23% is outstanding, Pre-tax margin of 17% is great, ROE of 21.1% is exceptional, ROCE of 28.3% is also exceptional Key Metrics: - The stock is trading at 8.95 times its book value - The company is debt-free and has a strong balance sheet, enabling stable earnings growth - Promoter holding has decreased over the last 3 years: -14.8% with current Promoter Holding: 38.85% Analyst Outlook: - Recent research reports show an average share price target of 1784 - Strong financial metrics support technical breakout - Debt-free status provides financial flexibility - Consistent profitability across business cycles Investment Thesis Summary: Bullish Factors: - Strong technical breakout attempt with volume confirmation - Robust financial performance with 23.14% revenue growth - Favourable industry growth prospects - Debt-free balance sheet providing stability Risk Factors: - General market volatility - Sector-specific cyclical risks - Global economic uncertainties - Promoter holding reduction trend My Take: NSE:KIRLPNU presents a compelling technical setup with strong fundamental backing. The recent breakout attempt from multi-month consolidation, supported by volume surge and positive sector outlook, creates an attractive risk-reward opportunity for medium-term investors. The company's strong financial metrics and debt-free status add confidence to the technical setup. Keep in the Watchlist. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:KIRLPNULong
by Karanshah137
14
Rossari: Ready to Break Out from Multi-Month ConsolidationNSE:ROSSARI : Hidden Gem Ready to Break Out from Multi-Month Consolidation - My Technical Analysis & Trade Setup on this beautiful Chart Structure Price Action: - Stock has been in a prolonged consolidation phase since March 2025, after a significant decline from highs near 970 levels - Current price action shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern with converging trend lines - Recent price movement indicates a potential breakout attempt with increased volume participation - The stock has found strong support around 580-600 levels and resistance near the 720-740 zone Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Characteristics: - Volume has been declining during the consolidation phase, which is typical for triangle patterns - Recent sessions show increasing volume participation, suggesting institutional interest - Volume spike during recent upward movement indicates genuine buying interest - Average volume appears to be around 300-400K shares, with recent pickup to 620K+ Volume Confirmation Signals: - Higher volume on up days compared to down days in recent sessions - Volume expansion during the recent breakout attempt - Accumulation pattern visible in volume profile during base formation Base Formation: - Primary base formation: Large consolidation base formed between 580-740 levels over 7+ months - Base characteristics: Symmetrical triangle with higher lows - Base depth: Approximately 27% from resistance to support levels - Time duration: An Extended 7-month base suggests a strong accumulation phase Key Support and Resistance Levels: - Immediate Support: 680-690 (recent swing low) - Major Support: 580-600 (tested multiple times, strong buying interest) - Immediate Resistance: 720-740 (upper trend line of triangle) - Major Resistance: 800-820 (previous significant resistance zone) - Ultimate Resistance: 900-920 (prior consolidation area) Technical Patterns: - Primary Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle - Secondary Pattern: Potential Cup and Handle formation within the larger triangle - Volume Pattern: Decreasing volume during consolidation with recent pickup suggesting breakout preparation - Price compression: Narrowing price range indicates imminent directional move Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: - Primary Entry: On breakout above 720-725 with volume confirmation - Secondary Entry: On pullback to 700-705 levels after successful breakout - Aggressive Entry: Current levels around 704-706 for risk-tolerant traders Exit Levels: - Target 1: 760-770 (measured move from triangle base) - Target 2: 800-820 (previous resistance zone) - Target 3: 860-880 (extended target based on base depth) - Ultimate Target: 920-950 (full triangle breakout target) Stop-Loss Strategy: - Conservative Stop-Loss: Below 680 (recent swing low) - Aggressive Stop-Loss: Below 695 (intraday support) - Trailing Stop: Move to breakeven once Target 1 is achieved Position Sizing: - Risk per trade: Maximum 2% of portfolio - Position size calculation: Based on stop-loss distance from entry - For entry at 705 with stop at 680: Risk of 25 points allows for appropriate position sizing - Recommended allocation: 3-5% of portfolio for medium-term holding Risk Management: - Maximum drawdown tolerance: 3-4% from entry point - Partial profit booking at each target level (25% at each target) - Trailing stop-loss implementation after achieving Target 1 - Time-based exit if no progress within 3-4 weeks Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: Sector Overview: - The speciality chemicals sector is showing resilience in the current market conditions - Increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly chemical solutions - The government push for domestic manufacturing under PLI schemes - Growing export opportunities in the speciality chemicals space Company Fundamentals: - Business Profile: Speciality chemicals manufacturer focusing on home, personal care, and fabric care segments - Revenue Growth: Consistent growth trajectory in recent quarters - Market Position: Strong presence in domestic market with expanding export footprint - Product Portfolio: Diversified range of speciality chemicals and ingredients Industry Tailwinds: - Increasing consumer spending on personal care products - Growing demand for sustainable and biodegradable chemical products - Import substitution opportunities in speciality chemicals - Rising per capita income is driving demand for quality personal care products Fundamental Catalysts: - New product launches and capacity expansions - Strategic partnerships and collaborations - Improving operational efficiency and margin expansion - Strong balance sheet supporting growth investments Risk Factors: Technical Risks: - Failure to sustain above 720 levels could lead to further consolidation - Breakdown below 680 could trigger deeper correction to 600-620 levels - Low liquidity may result in higher volatility during a breakout Fundamental Risks: - Raw material price inflation is impacting margins - Competitive pressure from larger players - Regulatory changes affecting product approvals - Currency fluctuation impact on export revenues My Take: NSE:ROSSARI presents an attractive risk-reward setup with a well-defined technical pattern and strong fundamental backdrop. The extended consolidation phase suggests substantial energy is building up for the next directional move. With proper risk management and disciplined execution, this setup offers multiple target levels for profit booking while maintaining manageable downside risk. Keep in the Watchlist. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:ROSSARILong
by Karanshah137
10
AHLUCONT: Rising Wedge pattern formationNSE:AHLUCONT Rising from the Ashes: How This Construction Giant is Trying to Break Out of Its Year-Long Consolidation Pattern. Let's Analyze Price Action Analysis: • The stock is displaying a classic Rising Wedge pattern formation over the past several months • Current price of ₹1,037.70 represents a +54.00 gain (+5.49%) from the previous close • The stock has established a strong base formation around the ₹620-650 levels as indicated by the low marker • Multiple higher lows have been formed along the rising trendline, demonstrating buying interest at progressively higher levels • The pattern shows a narrowing price range as it approaches the apex, typical of wedge formations Volume Spread Analysis: • Volume has been relatively subdued during the consolidation phase, which is characteristic of wedge patterns • Recent session shows increased volume at 349.26K compared to the average, suggesting institutional participation • Volume spikes appear to coincide with key support and resistance tests, indicating active participation at critical levels Key Technical Levels: Support Levels: • Primary Support: ₹950-970 (recent breakout level) • Secondary Support: ₹850-880 (previous consolidation zone) • Major Support: ₹620-650 (base formation area) Resistance Levels: • Immediate Resistance: ₹1,050-1,070 (psychological level) • Key Resistance: ₹1,100-1,120 (pattern target) • Major Resistance: ₹1,300-1,337 (52-week high zone) Technical Patterns: • Rising Wedge Pattern: The stock has formed a rising wedge over several months, which typically indicates a continuation pattern in an uptrend • Base Formation: A solid base has been established in the ₹620-650 range, providing strong support for future moves Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: • Primary Entry: ₹1,040-1,050 (current levels with momentum confirmation) • Secondary Entry: ₹980-1,000 (on any retracement to support) • Breakout Entry: Above ₹1,070 with volume confirmation Exit Strategy: • Target 1: ₹1,120-1,150 (short-term target) • Target 2: ₹1,200-1,250 (medium-term target) • Target 3: ₹1,300+ (long-term target based on pattern projection) Risk Management: • Stop Loss: ₹950 (below recent support and breakout level) • Position Size: Risk 1-2% of portfolio per trade • Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 for all entries Position Sizing Guidelines: • Conservative investors: 2-3% of portfolio • Moderate risk takers: 4-5% of portfolio • Aggressive traders: 6-8% of portfolio (not recommended to exceed this) Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: Company Overview: • Ahluwalia Contracts has a market cap of ₹6,936 crore with promoter holding at 55.32% • The company reported revenue of ₹4,099 crore and profit of ₹202 crore • Recent quarterly results show revenue of ₹1,215.84 crore and net profit of ₹83.33 crore for Q4 FY25 Sector Outlook: • The infrastructure boom is set to lead India to become the third-largest construction market by 2025 • Government has bolstered capital expenditure by 11.1% to $133 billion for fiscal year 2024-25, equivalent to 3.4% of GDP • The India Infrastructure Sector Market is expected to reach USD 190.70 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 8% to reach USD 280.60 billion by 2030 Government Support: • Budget 2025-26 allocates INR 11.21 lakh crore for the infrastructure sector • The FY2025–26 Budget outlines major allocations with INR 2.9 trillion for the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, and INR 2.6 trillion for the Ministry of Railways Growth Drivers: • The flourishing housing market, coupled with the government's sustained and massive infrastructure push, has driven construction market growth • Government-led initiatives aimed at advancing infrastructure are driving the Indian construction market growth during the forecast period • The India Construction Market is projected to register a CAGR of greater than 6% during the forecast period (2025-2030) Investment Rationale: Bullish Factors: • Strong technical breakout on cards from a well-defined pattern • Robust government spending on infrastructure development • The company's established market position in the construction sector • Healthy financial metrics with consistent profitability Risk Factors: • Contingent liabilities of ₹1,963 crore present a concern • Dividend payout has been low at 1.42% of profits over the last 3 years • General market volatility could impact sector performance • Execution risks in large infrastructure projects My Take: The stock presents a compelling technical setup with strong fundamental support from the government's infrastructure push. The rising wedge breakout, combined with increased volume and supportive sector dynamics, makes it an attractive investment opportunity for medium to long-term investors. However, strict adherence to stop-loss levels and position sizing guidelines is essential for risk management. Keep in the Watchlist. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:AHLUCONTLong
by Karanshah137
14
PCBL: The Sleeping Giant Ready to BreakOut of Its TriangleNSE:PCBL : The Sleeping Giant Ready to Break Out of Its Consolidation Triangle Price Action Analysis: • Stock has been trading in a well-defined ascending triangle pattern since early 2025 • Current price at ₹434.40 represents a +2.53% gain, showing bullish momentum • The pattern shows a higher low formation with resistance around ₹450-460 levels • Recent price action suggests an accumulation phase with controlled volatility Volume Spread Analysis: • Volume has been consistently above average during recent sessions (4.79M vs 1.71M average) • Volume spike visible in recent trading sessions, indicating increased institutional interest • The volume pattern supports the price consolidation with periodic accumulation phases • Higher volume during up-moves compared to down-moves suggests buying interest Key Technical Levels: Support Levels: • Primary Support: ₹420-425 (recent swing low) • Secondary Support: ₹390-395 (ascending trendline support) • Major Support: ₹360-370 (previous consolidation zone) Resistance Levels: • Immediate Resistance: ₹450-460 (triangle upper boundary) • Key Resistance: ₹480-490 (previous highs) • Major Resistance: ₹520-530 (psychological level) Base Formation: • The stock has formed a strong ascending triangle base over 6-7 months • Base depth of approximately 15-20% from highs to lows • Duration suggests a sustainable breakout when it occurs • Base shows characteristics of institutional accumulation Technical Patterns: • Primary Pattern: Ascending Triangle (Bullish) • Secondary Pattern: Flag formation on shorter timeframes • Volume-Price Relationship: Positive divergence during recent consolidation • Moving Average Setup: Price trading above all its key moving averages Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: • Breakout Entry: ₹465-470 (above triangle resistance with volume confirmation) • Pullback Entry: ₹440-445 (on any dip to support with volume) • Accumulation Entry: ₹420-430 (for longer-term investors) Exit Levels: • Target 1: ₹520-530 (measured move from triangle base) • Target 2: ₹580-590 (previous swing high zone) • Target 3: ₹650-680 (extension target based on base depth) Stop-Loss Levels: • For Breakout Trades: ₹445-450 (below breakout level) • For Accumulation Trades: ₹410-415 (below key support) • Trailing Stop: Use an 8-10% trailing stop after the first target Position Sizing: • Conservative Approach: 2-3% of portfolio • Moderate Approach: 3-5% of portfolio • Aggressive Approach: 5-7% of portfolio (only for experienced traders) Risk Management: • Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 for all trades • Maximum risk per trade: 2% of total capital • Use the position sizing calculator based on stop-loss distance • Avoid adding to losing positions • Book partial profits at each target level Sectoral Backdrop: Chemical Sector Overview: • Indian chemical sector showing strong fundamentals with export growth • The speciality chemicals segment is experiencing robust demand • The government's PLI scheme supports domestic chemical manufacturing • Global supply chain diversification benefiting Indian chemical companies Industry Trends: • Increasing demand for agrochemicals and pharmaceutical intermediates • Focus on sustainable and green chemistry practices • Rising input costs are being managed through pricing power • Strong export opportunities in speciality chemicals Fundamental Backdrop: Company Overview: • NSE:PCBL is a leading player in speciality chemicals and carbon black • Strong presence in the tire industry through carbon black manufacturing • Diversified product portfolio, reducing concentration risk • Established relationships with major tire manufacturers Financial Highlights: • Consistent revenue growth over the past few quarters • Improving margin profile due to operational efficiency • Strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels • Increasing return on equity and asset efficiency Growth Drivers: • Expanding tire industry in India and globally • New product launches in speciality chemicals • Capacity expansion plans for key products • Focus on high-margin speciality products Risk Factors: • Raw material price volatility • Environmental regulations compliance costs • Competition from global players • Cyclical nature of the tire industry My Take: NSE:PCBL presents a compelling technical setup with its ascending triangle pattern nearing completion. The combination of strong volume accumulation, supportive sectoral trends, and improving fundamentals creates a favourable risk-reward scenario. Traders should wait for a decisive breakout above the ₹465 levels, accompanied by volume confirmation, for optimal entry. Meanwhile, investors can consider gradual accumulation at current levels, exercising proper risk management. Keep in the Watchlist. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:PCBLLong
by Karanshah137
8
Venus Pipes: A Breakout Story in the MakingNSE:VENUSPIPES : A Breakout Story in the Making Price Action Analysis: • Price consolidated between 1,200-1,600 levels from January 2025 to June 2025 • Recent breakout above 1,600 resistance with strong volume confirmation • Currently trading at 1,574.80 after hitting a high of 2,450.35 • Pullback to retest the breakout level suggests healthy consolidation Volume Spread Analysis: • Significant volume spike during the recent breakout phase • Volume increased from an average of 149.65K to 860.5K, indicating institutional interest • Higher volume during up moves compared to down moves shows buying pressure • Volume pattern supports the breakout thesis with strong participation Key Technical Levels: Support Levels: • Primary Support: 1,200 (previous base level) • Secondary Support: 1,400 (mid-range support) • Immediate Support: 1,500 (recent pullback low) Resistance Levels: • Immediate Resistance: 1,650 (recent high) • Major Resistance: 2,450 (lifetime high) • Psychological Resistance: 2,000 and 2,500 Base Formation: • Strong base formed between 1,200-1,400 levels over 6 months • Multiple retests of support levels showing accumulation • Base provides a strong foundation for upward movement Technical Patterns: Primary Pattern: • Bullish continuation pattern with horizontal resistance at 1,600 and rising support line • Pattern duration: 8 months (Jan 2025 to July 2025) • Breakout confirmed with volume expansion Secondary Patterns: • Higher low pattern indicating underlying strength • Volume-price divergence resolved with a recent breakout Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: • Conservative Entry: On pullback to 1,500-1,520 levels • Aggressive Entry: Current levels around 1,570-1,580 • Breakout Entry: Above 1,650 with volume confirmation Exit Strategy: • Target 1: 1,800 (immediate target) • Target 2: 2,100 (50% retracement of lifetime high) • Target 3: 2,400-2,500 (lifetime high retest) Stop-Loss Levels: • For entries around 1,570: Stop at 1,450 (below base support) • For entries around 1,500: Stop at 1,350 (below key support) • Trailing stop: 8-10% below recent swing highs Risk Management: Position Sizing: • Risk per trade: Maximum 2% of portfolio • Position size calculation: Portfolio value × 2% ÷ (Entry price - Stop loss) • Gradual position building is recommended, given the volatility Risk Assessment: • Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 to 1:3 for current setup • Time horizon: 3-6 months for primary targets • Market correlation: Monitor broader market sentiment Sectoral Backdrop: Steel Pipes and Tubes Industry: • Infrastructure spending boost under government initiatives • Demand from the oil and gas sector supports growth • Housing sector recovery driving construction demand • Water supply projects creating additional opportunities Industry Trends: • Consolidation phase in the sector, favouring established players • Raw material cost pressures being managed through pricing power • Export opportunities emerging in neighbouring markets • Technology upgrades improving operational efficiency Fundamental Backdrop: Company Overview: • Venus Pipes & Tubes is a leading manufacturer of steel pipes and tubes • Established presence in water supply, structural, and industrial applications • Strong distribution network across India • Focus on quality and customer service Recent Developments: • Capacity expansion plans to meet growing demand • Strategic partnerships with infrastructure companies • Improved working capital management • Strong order book visibility for coming quarters Financial Health: • Steady revenue growth trajectory • Improving margin profile • Healthy balance sheet with manageable debt levels • Strong cash flow generation capabilities My Take: Short-term View (1-3 months): • Consolidation expected around current levels • Potential for retest of breakout levels • Volume patterns to be monitored for direction Medium-term View (3-6 months): • Upside potential to 2,000-2,200 levels • Sector rotation could benefit the stock • Infrastructure spending cycle supporting fundamentals Long-term View (6-12 months): • Structural growth story intact • Market leadership position strengthening • Potential for significant value creation Keep in the Watchlist. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:VENUSPIPESLong
by Karanshah137
6
Diverse Trading Strategies for UGRO Capital LtdUGRO Capital Ltd is currently exhibiting a symmetrical triangle pattern, characterized by converging trend lines drawn in black. This technical formation is indicative of a potential continuation or reversal pattern, often signaling an impending breakout, either upward or downward. Within this chart pattern, the upper trend line serves as a short-term resistance zone, while the price action has encountered difficulties in surpassing this level. A counter-trendline, represented by a dotted black line, suggests an attempt to break free from the prevailing downtrend; however, the stock continues to face resistance from the upper trend line. The stock has demonstrated notable resilience, establishing multiple support points, clearly identified by the blue line on the chart. These instances of price bounces indicate a consistent level of buying interest and present evidence of the stock's strength. The formation of higher lows during this period signifies a bullish sentiment, suggesting the potential for upward price movement. MACD & RSI values also denotes strong buying pressure and suggests a significant potential for price reversal. Recent trading activity shows a significant surge in volume over the past two days, substantially exceeding the average trading volumes. This spike is a critical sign of accumulating buying pressure, further supporting the bullish outlook for UGRO Capital Ltd . Increased volume during price ascents often serves as confirmation of the strength of the momentum. While the current technical indicators present a constructive outlook, a definitive breakout can only be confirmed when the stock price successfully clears the upper trend line resistance. Upon achieving this milestone, the next target of interest will likely be the established resistance level at 299, which could be revisited in the foreseeable future if bullish momentum continues. Disclaimer: The information provided in this analysis is purely for informational and educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors are strongly encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research prior to making any investment decisions.
NSE:UGROCAPLong
by NiftyNotion
Devyani International: Will Weekly Momentum Fuel a Breakout?Devyani International is currently making higher lows, as indicated by the trend line. The stock has established strong support at 142, with resistance at 203. After two failed breakout attempts, the question remains: will the third succeed or will it pull back to support? Minor resistance at 179 has now turned into support. However, it is important to note that while the weekly volumes remain unimpressive, the MACD is showing growing strength, signaling potential bullish momentum in the coming weeks. Potential Risk: The primary risk to the stock's upward trajectory is the possibility of a broader market correction, particularly influenced by uncertainty in the Index. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy. It is important to learn how to recognize and understand patterns in stock movements.
NSE:DEVYANI
by sandeepbalachandran
National aluminium multi pattern trade idea National Aluminium trades within a broader rising wedge pattern, marked by the red lines. A counter-trendline (solid white line) also comes into play, indicating a shorter-term resistance zone. The stock recently broke through one of the dotted hidden lines, but it's still facing resistance from the upper hidden trendline, keeping it just below a key breakout point. The formation of higher lows, highlighted by the yellow circles, signifies strength in price action and building momentum. Today's volume surge, notably higher than average, adds weight to the bullish sentiment. However, a significant breakout could only be confirmed once the price clears the last hidden line of resistance. Watching closely for this potential move
NSE:NATIONALUMLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
CAMS standing on a strong demand zoneCAMS has been in a downtrend from end of 2021. We can see on the chart that the stock is consolidating near a strong support of 2000 level. RSI is forming higher lows which indicate strength of buyers at this level. It looks attractive at CMP for a positional long trade for minimum target of 2300.However, a weekly closing below 2000 levels will have a sharp fall upto 1750 levels which is a major risk. Kindly consider this idea for educational purposes and trade as per your own analysis.
NSE:CAMSLong
by chartistamey
Trend Identification: Utilizing Higher Highs and Higher LowsTechnical Indicator - William Fractal Setting - 20 period About the Indicator : William Fractal is a technical analysis tool used by traders in financial markets to identify potential turning points and trends. It is based on the concept of fractals, which are self-similar patterns that repeat themselves on different scales. The William Fractal is formed when there is a series of five bars, with the middle bar having the highest high and the lowest low in comparison to the surrounding bars. Traders use this pattern to determine potential buy and sell signals, as a fractal forming at the bottom of a downtrend could signal a potential reversal, while a fractal forming at the top of an uptrend could signal a potential trend continuation. The William Fractal can be used in combination with other technical indicators to improve trading decisions. Benefits of using William fractal indicator Easy to Identify : The William Fractal is a simple and straightforward pattern to spot, making it accessible for traders of all skill levels. High Accuracy : The pattern is based on the concept of fractals, which have a high degree of accuracy in identifying trend reversals. Confirms Trend Strength : By highlighting areas of potential trend reversal or continuation, the William Fractal can help traders confirm the strength of a trend. Improves Timing : By using the William Fractal in conjunction with other technical indicators, traders can improve the timing of their trades and increase the chances of success. Identifies Key Turning Points : The William Fractal can help traders identify key turning points in the market, allowing them to make informed trades and take advantage of market movements. Works in All Markets : The William Fractal is applicable across different financial markets, including stocks, forex, and commodities, making it a versatile tool for traders Try this out and let me know your thoughts in the comment section.
NSE:HCLTECHEducation
by vnagaraj0803
ORBTEXP - Breakout with huge volume - Swing TradeThe analysis is done on weekly TF hence price may take few weeks to few months in order to reach the targets. Trade setup is explained in image itself. The above analysis is purely for educational purpose. Traders must do their own study & follow risk management before entering into any trade Checkout my other ideas to understand how one can earn from stock markets with simple trade setups. Feel Free to comment below this or connect with me for any query or suggestion regarding this stock or Price Action Analysis.
NSE:ORBTEXPLong
by TradewithAditya