The roar of the Bulls lifts NIFTY above 16900NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -30-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16775.85 / 16951.5 / 16764.85 / 16931.05
H-L = 187 points
VIX 13.32 / -0.67%
FII DII: +1990 Crores
Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY surprised most as it ended the day above 16900 and a few points away from the ATH level.
The gap-up opening above the resistances was sustained throughout the day and after some consolidation, it kept inching up.
NIFTY is now clearly in the proverbial “Uncharted Territory” so the action will be stock movement based as well as how well BANK NIFTY manages to hold higher levels.
The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 30
BAJAJ FINANCE 23
ICICI BANK 20
HDFC BANK 17
AXIS BANK 13
TOTAL 103
The Draggers
INFOSYS 07
TCS 04
NESTLE 04
TECH M 03
EICHER MOTORS 01
TOTAL 19
Lifter - Draggers = +84
The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it pass the ATH level and close also at a new ATH.
POSITIVES
NIFTY crossed 16900 with relative ease.
BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY.
RELIANCE closed at 2275 after almost a 10 month period and as long as it holds 2250, it has the potential to head higher taking NIFTY even higher.
MARUTI and TATA MOTORS finally managed to turn around and possibly the short covering in these two would have fueled NIFTY rise even further.
Leading banks have also turned green and lifted BANK NIFTY.
FIIs and DIIs were both Net Buyers today and FIIs have taken the lead.
NEGATIVES
IT leaders are under pressure as INR has gained. Also, the sector has witnessed a good run so profit booking is likely and obvious at higher levels.
DII buying has reduced so we may witness some selling from them in the coming days.
IT scrips need to get back in the game for the rally to sustain otherwise it would get diluted.
TRADING RANGE FOR 31-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16700-750. The resistances are not known for now except the big one at 17000.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
TATAMOTORS seems to have some issues with 293+ levels as it reached the level in the AM session but failed to hold on and reclaim. MARUTI did well to end the day closer to the day high around 6800.
I picked BAJAJ AUTO 3800 CE at 70.5 when the spot was at 3735. It ended the day at 3720, 15 points lower and the premium “appreciated” by 8 points! I have not seen such a situation before. I am not sure how to interpret it - whether the premium is hiked for the writers to benefit or the implied VIX has gone up. Let us see what happens tomorrow.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
30-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
ICICIBANK
Simple Trade Setup | ICICIBANK | 30-08-2021NSE:ICICIBANK
Trade Setup for Date 30-08-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level tomorrow.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Nifty expires Aug series on a flat note NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -26-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16627.95 / 16683.7 / 16603.7 / 16636.9
H-L = 80 points
VIX 13.54 / -0.3%
FII DII: -919 Crores
Likely open: Flat to positive with resistance at 16650-700.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
On a closing basis, Nifty expired the series on a flat note.
Nifty made a lower high and a lower low.
The trading range for the day has been reducing over the last few sessions.
This may indicate either a breakout or a break-down.
Yet another indecisive Doji made by Nifty on the daily charts.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 03
ICICI BANK 02
HDFC LIFE 02
BRITANNIA 01
HUL 01
TOTAL 09
The Draggers
BHARTI AIRTEL 01
JSW STEEL 01
INFOSYS 01
SBI 01
ITC 01
TOTAL 05
Lifter - Draggers = +05
The above clearly explains why Nifty ended almost flat. It seems all the scrips were too tired or too cautious to move either way.
POSITIVES
NIFTY ended the series on a very mild positive note.
RELIANCE and ICICI BANK helped Nifty stay grounded above 16600.
HDFC twins have also maintained sanity for the indices to close on a flat note.
DIIs have bought in excess of 1,000 Crores so overall the trend is likely to be up.
NEGATIVES
Nifty failed to go anywhere near 16700.
It made a lower low.
FIIs are still in Sell mode with 1900+ Crores in Sell value.
MARUTI has been in the negative mode for quite a few sessions. So either it may touch its FIB around 6400 or it may snap back up. Wait and watch for now.
TRADING RANGE FOR 27-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves up to 16500-550. The resistances are now from 16650 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-35200 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
RELIANCE and ICICI BANK both have moved up by 1%+ and yet their contribution is meager to Nifty. This is puzzling as usually, they make more contributions even with a similar % increase or decrease.
I do not know if Bulls managed to bring the Nifty above 16600 or if it was heavy put writing that prevented Nifty from falling further.
The close-in indices appear that this has been staged by the Pros.
In my view, the expiry was subdued only because of not-so-good global cues. Otherwise, Nifty may have ended above or closer to 16700.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Simple Trade Setup | ICICIBANK | 24-08-2021NSE:ICICIBANK
Observations:
1) On daily time frame, it is testing highs of Feb-2021. And it is taking support from 674 level range since last 2 days.
2) It is trading below 21DMA but above 50DMA .
Please refer Chart below: daily time frame.
3) On 15min Time frame it is trading in the descending channel pattern.
Please refer chart below: 15min time frame.
-------------------------------------
Trade Setup for Date 24-08-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart below. I hope it is easy to understand.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Nifty comes under pressure and closes at 16450NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -20-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16382.5 / 16509.55 / 16376.05 / 16450.5
H-L = 133
VIX 14.02 / +8.6%
FII DII: -2178 Crores
Likely open: Negative to flat
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A 200+ point gap-down opening in Nifty shook all the scrips.
Nifty made a significantly lower high and a significantly lower low.
It then moved in a narrow range of 100+ points witnessing high volatility and choppy movements.
On daily charts, it appears to have been brutally thrown away from the top though it has made a good recovery from the lows.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HUL 23
BAJAJ FINANCE 15
NESTLE 13
ASIAN PAINTS 11
BRITANNIA 09
TOTAL 71
The Draggers
JSW STEEL 27
TATA STEEL 21
RELIANCE 18
ICICI BANK 11
SBI 11
TOTAL 88
Lifter - Draggers = -17
The selling appears to be quite intense and that explains the negative closing for the week.
POSITIVES
The sleeping giant HUL woke up and stood firm and helped steady Nifty.
HDFC ended in the green despite extreme selling pressure.
BANK NIFTY managed to end above 35000 make or break level.
NEGATIVES
Nifty failed to close above 16500 and a major barrier for the bulls has been lost for now.
BANK NIFTY fought an intense battle to stay above 35000 and it was hard to for it to even cross 35100 as it was pushed down severely from that area.
FIIs have sold heavily.
VIX is up almost 9%!
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 23-8-21
The Nifty baseline moves down to 16300-350. The resistances are now from 16500 onwards.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 34800-35000 and resistance at 35200-35500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs have sold heavily so some more negativity on the cards.
HUL rose sharply and BRITANNIA also did well but ITC did not move much. So there is something in HUL and BRITANNIA that is not applicable to ITC.
BANK NIFTY was struggling hard to cross 35100 and the impact was direct on Nifty. The moves remind me of the slow and choppy moves that we had seen during the last year after the COVID triggered the crash.
Is this a Buy on Dips market?
If one remains stock-specific then yes, it is so - at least for support to resistance-based trades.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
20-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Nifty under severe pressure at ATH - Caution Ahead!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -18-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16691.95 / 16701.85 / 16535.85 / 16568.85
H-L = 166
VIX 12.91 / -3.72%
FII DII: -1325 Crores
Likely open: Negative to flat
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Nifty touched 15701 for the first time and made yet another high.
Nifty made a higher high and a higher low.
The Nifty failed to hold on to the higher levels and was sold off after an hour from the morning and kept falling till the last one hour when there was a mild recovery.
The fall was consistent indicating selling pressure around 16700.
On daily charts, the candle looks bearish but with low volumes.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINANCE 55
BAJAJ FINSERV 29
RELIANCE 20
ADANI PORTS 17
ULTRATECH 15
TOTAL 136
The Draggers
ICICI BANK 61
HDFC 34
KOTAK BANK 24
INFOSYS 20
SBI LIFE 15
TOTAL 154
Lifter - Draggers = -18
The selling appears to be quite intense and the heavyweights from key sectors have joined in to drag the indices down.
POSITIVES
Nifty made yet another ATH.
HDFC BANK held on to 1500+ levels despite BANK NIFTY being under severe pressure.
RELIANCE ended in the green even though it was modest. The fact that it did not join the sell-off is a big positive.
NEGATIVES
Key constituents of Nifty contributed significantly on the downside than what they have in the recent past on the up side.
FIIs and DIIs have both turned net sellers.
BANK NIFTY broke 35600 level and was down 800 points intraday.
TRADING RANGE FOR 20-8-21
Nifty baseline moves down to 16450-500.
BANK NIFTY support base also slides to 35000-400 and resistance at 36200-36500.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
There was clearly something that was not visible to the naked eyes that is known to the FIIs-DIIs as the selling was consistent in Nifty and BANK NIFTY was even worse.
As of 1255h on 19-8-21, SGX Nifty is down 290 points!
There is something that has happened globally as well - if the US also trades in the negative, we may see a bloodbath tomorrow and the trend for the short term may change.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
18-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Simple Trade Setup | ICICIBANK | 18-08-2021NSE:ICICIBANK
Observations:
1) On Daily Time frame it has taken support from 692 range which is critical level. As it was working as resistance before.
2) On Daily Time Frame it is trading above 21DMA and 50DMA. 21DMA is above 50DMA.
Please refer Chart below: daily time frame.
3) On 1hour time frame it has formed double bottom pattern. And also took support from 692 level and Trendline -1. 705 level look critical to watch out.
Please refer chart below: 1 hour time frame.
Trade Setup for Date 18-08-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and target w.r.t price action working near that level tomorrow.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
My personal view is bullish in it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
BANKNIFTY IMPORTARNT LEVELS FOR 12/08/21(POC) if on 12th aug 2021 market opens in a positive(ABOVE POC) then taking the conformation of bullish trend by candlestick we can see a easy rally towards 35959 AND 36252.
if market opens on a flat note avoid taking trade
if market opens in bearish side seeing bearish conformation we can see our target #1 35858 and #2 35758
Disclaimer :- Trading is very risky please analyze the stock by your own and take the trade on your risk. Levels which are provided above are just for a simple idea about the stock and for educational purpose.