Indexanalysis
NIFTY analysis for 31 MayThe SGX is 40 odd points down, so expect a gap down opening.
The US markets did not give a great closing, (rallied in the session but closed around previous day's close.)
India VIX is below 18, meaning the fear of a big crash has abated.
Bullish Scenario: The market may gap down,
test yesterday's low (15390), and move higher or stay range bound through the day.
Bearish Scenario: The market opens gap down,
tests the 15435 level or yesterday's high 15470,
and comes crashing down to 15335 level and takes support.
Is it time to be cautious on NIFTY?Some conflicting signals:
India VIX has been closing below 20(good sign), occasionally giving a spike scare then abating within the session.
Not much buying seen from FIIs/DIIs. In fact the FIIs sold 660Cr and DIIs bought only 112Cr. Yet market closed marginally in green. Is the market being kept afloat for a while?
The RSI divergence can be easily noticed on the charts.
The NIFTY Futures relative strength against NIFTY has been in a constant decline for four sessions.
Nifty is forming a Rounding bottom pattern, but the volumes have been on a continuous decline. (Ideally the volumes should expand while the price approaches the breakout point.)
The leading sectors (Metals, Pharma, IT) are not really moving (market breadth wise).
We are seeing a lot of failed breakouts. A hard penny environment. The NIFTY looks like a stronger index vis-a-vis S&P500 on Relative Strength. But are we really seeing strength in the broader market?
NIFTY Support & ResistanceNifty halted through the first two resistance lines on the recovery path but slashed through the last two as if they never existed.
This is parabolic up move on weekly chart and this is initiated by the flows from FIIs.
Eventually a profit booking week is going to come and that will be mostly the third or fourth week of Dec.
Another round of up move will be fueled by the Majors such as Reliance and TCS who have been getting the beatings for last couple of weeks while the banks shone all over the index.
Keep a cautious tone on Financials and Autos and look for profit booking. Look for good rally in FMCG and Energy.
BLOW OFF TOP NIFTYNIfty 50 index has gone back up the important trend line that ranges back to it's inception in 1991.
GFC 2008 was only other incident when NIFTY went down this trend line for substantial period.
However when it went back up on the trend-line, it stayed there up until the crash of Health Crisis.
Now, Nifty has recovered from the crash and went back up on the trend line, this bull trend is here to stay!
I do believe valuations don't justify the earnings of many stocks currently but from a trader point of view, I'd still be bullish.
NOTE: This is my personal opinion and in no way a investing or trading recommendation.
EW NIFTY a bear count possibility Nifty after a strong impulse from 6824 didnt get a strong impulse move up. and started moving in different channels at different wave time.
the wave counts posted are just a possibility and should be traded with caution. its invalidated if the high is broken 8964.
if the high holds strong then trend change is here in nifty.












