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India Inc Quarterly Earnings and Nifty Corelation We all know that our beloved NSE:NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least. Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal. So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe. As it's evident: In 26/10/23 (Q2 results midway) there were a dip to 18850 level when RSI was at oversold region. Within next two months, the Nifty gave ~15% return. Again during 24th Jan'24 (Q3 results midway) there is a dip and then Nifty quickly recovered. Again during 19/04/24 (Q4/annual results midway), there is a dip and then again smart recovery. The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations: 19th April'24, 9th May'24, 4th June'24, 5th Aug'24 - the RSI was at 40 level. Price were more or less around same/similar level. (Except Aug when Nifty was at 24000). Now the Nifty RSI was at 36. But the price is at 24800. It's indices Hidden Bullish Divergence My Expectation: There can be a little more dip (lets say another 150-250 points, at max 24550). Then Nifty starts recovering smartly and will try to reclaim the 25500 Resistance level. We shall see what will happen next. So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO. Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see. Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by pradipandsuvra
COFORGE & ECLERX: Two IT Underdogs on the Rise!COFORGE The stock displayed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, and following the breakout, the price saw a substantial rise, subsequently created another bullish formation called Pole & Flag. Recently, the price has broken through and is expected to continue its upward trend. ECLERX This chart also reveals the presence of an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Following a recent breakout, the price is positioned for an upward movement.
NSE:COFORGELong
by GoodluckCapital
2
Cosmic Collision: DLF & Oberoi Realty Clash in Real-Estate Space◉ Abstract The Indian real estate market is growing fast and is expected to reach $1 Trillion by 2030. Two big companies in this field are DLF and Oberoi Realty. DLF makes most of its money from commercial properties mainly through rental income, while Oberoi Realty focuses on homes. Both companies are doing well, but Oberoi Realty is growing faster and making more profit. DLF's stock price might go up soon after being stable for a long time. Oberoi Realty's stock has been going up steadily. Both companies don't have too much debt and are attracting investors. DLF seems expensive when you look at its price compared to earnings, while Oberoi Realty looks like a better deal. Oberoi Realty is also spending more on growing its business. In the end, both companies are in a good position to benefit from India's growing economy and increasing demand for real estate. ◉ Introduction The Indian real estate sector has witnessed significant growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand, policy reforms, and infrastructure development. Two prominent players, DLF Limited and Oberoi Realty Limited, have been at the forefront of this growth, shaping the country's urban landscape. Both companies have established themselves as leaders in the industry, with a strong presence in residential, commercial, and retail segments. ◉ Indian Real Estate Sector: Future Growth Prospects India's real estate market is expected to register significant growth in the coming years, driven by a number of factors. Here's a quick summary of the key trends: ● Market size and GDP contribution: The market size is expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030, up from US$ 200 billion in 2021, and contribute 15.5% to GDP by 2047. ● Residential market growth: The residential market is witnessing strong growth, with the value of home sales reaching an all-time high of Rs. 3.47 lakh crore (US$ 42 billion) in FY23. Demand is surging in top 8 cities across mid-income, premium, and luxury segments. ● Retail and office space: The retail and office space segments are also growing rapidly. Gross leasing in top 7 cities crossed 60 million sq ft for the first time in 2023, with technology companies leading leasing activity. ● Data centers: Data center demand is on the rise, with an expected increase of 15-18 million sq ft by 2025. ● Housing shortage: There is a significant housing shortage in urban areas, with the current shortage estimated at 10 million units. An additional 25 million units of affordable housing are required by 2030. Overall, the Indian real estate sector presents a promising picture for growth and development. The sector is benefiting from a number of factors, including a growing economy, rising urbanization, and increasing disposable incomes. This is leading to strong demand for both residential and commercial properties. ◉ Company Overviews ● DLF NSE:DLF DLF Limited, along with its subsidiaries, focuses on colonization and real estate development across India. Their activities encompass land acquisition, project planning, construction, and marketing. The company specializes in developing and selling residential projects, while also managing commercial office spaces and retail properties, including malls and hospitality ventures. Notably, it owns The Lodhi Hotel and Hilton Garden Inn in New Delhi, as well as the DLF Golf & Country Club in Gurugram. Additionally, DLF is involved in leasing, maintenance, power generation, and recreational services. Established in 1946, DLF Limited is headquartered in Gurugram and operates as a subsidiary of Rajdhani Investments and Agencies Private Limited. ● Oberoi Realty NSE:OBEROIRLTY Oberoi Realty Limited, along with its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate development and hospitality in India. It operates in two main segments: Real Estate and Hospitality. The company develops and sells various projects, including residential, commercial, hospitality, retail, and social infrastructure. It also leases office and retail spaces. Additionally, it manages hotel operations, which include room sales, food and beverage services, and related offerings, as well as constructing residential apartments and providing property management services. Established in 1998, the company is based in Mumbai, India. ◉ Market Capitalization ● DLF - ₹ 2,26,256 Cr. ($26.8 B) ● Oberoi Realty - ₹ 68,970 Cr. ($8.2 B) ◉ Relative Strength The chart vividly demonstrates that neither company has managed to surpass the performance of the real estate sector over the past year. The realty sector has achieved an impressive return of 94%, while DLF and Oberoi Realty have delivered returns of 73% and 67%, respectively. ◉ Technical Aspects ● DLF ➖ Since its listing in July 2007, DLF reached an impressive peak of ₹ 1046 in January 2008. ➖ However, the stock faced a significant decline following the Lehman Brothers crisis later that year. ➖ After enduring a lengthy period of consolidation lasting eight years, the price stabilized around ₹ 66 in February 2016 and began its upward trajectory. ➖ Now, after nearly 17 years of consolidation, the stock is trading just below a critical resistance level, with a breakout anticipated in the near future. ● OBEROIRLTY ➖ Since its launch in December 2010, Oberoi Realty has shown a consistent upward trajectory ➖ During this ascent, the stock formed a Bullish Pennant pattern, and after breaking out, it surged to an all-time high of ₹ 1970 in September 2024. ➖ Currently, it is trading just below this peak. Analysts expect the stock to continue its upward momentum and reach new heights in the coming days. ◉ Revenue Breakdown ● DLF DLF mainly generates its revenue from real estate development, concentrating on both commercial and residential areas. Significantly, the commercial real estate sector contributes a considerable 74% of the company's total revenue, largely through rental income. ● OBEROIRLTY The company predominantly earns around 97% of its revenue from the real estate development sector. Furthermore, it also participates in the hospitality industry, which adds the remaining 3% to its overall revenue. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● DLF ➖ Over the past three years, DLF has recorded a modest compounded annual growth rate of 6% in sales. ➖ Despite this, the company has seen remarkable profit growth, which surged by 33% during the same timeframe. ➖ Currently, DLF enjoys a robust operating profit margin of 33%, an increase from 30% in FY23. ➖ In fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have jumped to 11.02, up from 8.22 the previous year, reflecting a consistent upward trend in EPS over the last four years. ● OBEROIREALTY ➖ In the last three years, Oberoi Realty has achieved an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 30% in sales. ➖ Profit growth has closely mirrored this success, with a CAGR of 34% during the same period. ➖ The company currently boasts an outstanding operating profit margin of 55%, a figure that continues to rise. ➖ While the EPS growth from FY23 to FY24 is modest, with EPS standing at 52.99 compared to 52.38 the previous year, the overall trend in EPS has been positive over the last four years. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ DLF's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 79.6, slightly exceeding its 1-year median P/E of 76.7. However, when juxtaposed with the industry average of 34.4, it becomes evident that DLF is significantly overvalued at this time. ➖ In contrast, Oberoi Realty presents a P/E ratio of 31.50, which is just above its 1-year median P/E of 29.6. Yet, when compared to the industry P/E of 34.4, it appears to be undervalued. ● P/B Ratio ➖ DLF's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 5.74, indicating a substantial overvaluation relative to the industry average of 3.54. ➖ Similarly, Oberoi Realty also seems overvalued with a P/B ratio of 4.98. ● PEG Ratio ➖ Oberoi Realty's PEG ratio of 1.83 positions it as an attractive investment opportunity, especially when compared to DLF's considerably higher PEG of 4.79. ◉ Profitability Analysis ➖ DLF ROCE - 6% in FY24 ➖ OBEROIRLTY ROCE - 15% in FY24 ➖ These numbers clearly demonstrate that Oberoi Realty is more profitable than DLF, as it efficiently leverages its total capital—comprising both equity and debt—to yield higher returns. ◉ Capex Analysis ● DLF ➖ The cash flow statement for DLF reveals a negative capital expenditure, indicating that the company is selling or disposing of its existing capital assets. ➖ This suggests a strategic decision to reduce its portfolio of office spaces and similar fixed assets, as they are no longer deemed necessary. ● OBEROIRLTY ➖ In contrast, Oberoi Realty has ramped up its capital expenditure from 601 crore to 677 crore compared to the previous year. ➖ This increase is a positive sign for the company, reflecting its ambition for expansion and growth in the market. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ DLF has demonstrated impressive growth in its operating cash flow, rising to 2,539 crore from 2,375 crore in FY23. ➖ Oberoi Realty has also performed exceptionally well, transforming its cash from operations to an impressive 2,810 crore, marking a significant recovery from a considerable negative of 2,383 crore in FY23. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ DLF demonstrates robust financial health with a manageable debt level of 4,894 crores and an impressive debt to equity ratio of just 0.12, signaling that debt is not a significant issue for the company. ➖ On the other hand, Oberoi has a debt of 2,495 crores, resulting in a debt to equity ratio of 0.18, which indicates that the company is also not worried about its debt situation. ◉ Shareholding Pattern ● DLF ➖ Currently, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) possess a 16.17% stake, reflecting a decline from the previous quarter. ➖ On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have increased their holdings to 4.81% as of the June quarter, a slight rise from 4.77% in the last quarter. ● OBEROIRLTY ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have made a notable increase in their investment in this stock, now holding 18.05%, up from 16.96% in the last quarter. ➖ Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have reduced their stake to 12.30%, down from 12.83% in the March quarter. ◉ Conclusion After a comprehensive assessment of the technical and financial metrics, we have concluded that Oberoi Realty has surpassed DLF in terms of valuation, profitability, revenue growth, and future expansion prospects. However, this does not imply that DLF cannot enhance its performance in the future. In fact, DLF is on the verge of a significant multi-year breakthrough, and if this happens, it could create an excellent opportunity for investors to take advantage of any price declines. In the end, both companies exhibit strong growth potential as they are leaders in the real estate sector. As the economy continues to grow, both Oberoi Realty and DLF are well-positioned to capitalize on this expansion.
NSE:DLFLong
by GoodluckCapital
3
NIFTY... 26000 TARGET IN 2024!Guys... I am sharing my analysis of Nifty over a longer time frame. The Elliot waves are marked on the chart. Nifty is currently in the wave 3 of the primary cycle. This primary cycle runs in smaller intermediate waves. Wave 1 started on April 2023; Wave 3 from November 2023; Expecting wave 4 to end by April 2024, and we can expect wave 5 to begin from May 2024. So, as per this analysis, we can see a red candle in April month - the wave 4 correction, which is likely to end around 21400 - 21500 levels. Wave 5, which is likely to begin in May, is likely to last till December 2024, taking nifty to 26000 levels (approximately 26400). In this, wave 3 is 1.23 times wave 1, and wave 5 is 1.618 times wave 1. Hopefully we get to witness a 20 - 25% rally in Nifty this year :) This is only my analysis & remember the market is always RIGHT!
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Stock-Holmes
BALRAMPUR CHINI - SWING TRADE ON SHORT SIDESymbol - BALRAMCHIN BALRAMCHIN is currently trading at 610 I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side. Shorting BALRAMCHIN Futures at CMP 610 I will be adding more position if 630 comes & will hold with SL 640 Targets I'm expecting are 575 - 550 - 530 & below. Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
NSE:BALRAMCHINShort
by akshit_official
4
Tata Power & Tata Communications: Dynamic Duo Poised for UpswingTata Power The stock has shown a significant upward trend, reached at the 460 level, where it encountered strong resistance. As a result, the price pulled back and found support around the 405 level, entered a consolidation phase. During this phase, a Pole & Flag pattern developed on the chart, and with a recent breakout supported by robust trading volume, the stock is primed for further upward movement. Tata Communications Overall, the price is on an upward trajectory, consistently making higher highs and lows. After hitting an all-time high close to the 2070 level, the price faced a notable rejection, resulted in a sharp decline followed by a consolidation phase. During this period, an Ascending Triangle pattern developed, and the stock has recently achieved a successful breakout. The current price action indicates that the stock is poised for another significant rally.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by GoodluckCapital
ICICI Bank & M_M See Significant Open Interest GrowthICICI Bank The current stock price is navigating through an ascending parallel channel, demonstrating a strong upward trend characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the price has successfully breached the upper boundary of the parallel channel and is attempting to maintain its position above this breakout level. A significant rise in future open interest—approximately 27%—has been observed for this stock. This increase in both the stock price and future open interest suggests that major investors are optimistic regarding this stock. As long as the price stays above the 1300 level, the overall sentiment is expected to remain positive. Mahindra & Mahindra The stock is experiencing a robust upward trend, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. During this upward movement, the price has formed a bullish Pole & Flag pattern. Recently, following a notable breakout accompanied by substantial trading volume, the stock has reached its all-time high. Additionally, there has been a significant increase in future open interest, which has risen by nearly 16%. This growth in both the stock price and future open interest indicates that major investors are confident about this stock.
NSE:ICICIBANKLong
by GoodluckCapital
3
The Banking-FMCG-Realty Trifecta Turbocharges Market Growth.Nifty Bank The Bank Nifty is on a strong upward trend, consistently making higher highs and lows. It has recently broken through its previous all-time high while moving within an ascending parallel channel, indicating potential for further gains. Nifty FMCG The FMCG sector is a major player in the market, and with a recent breakout, the index has reached its all-time high. The price action indicates bullish momentum, suggesting it could continue to rise. Nifty Realty While the overall trend is positive, the realty sector has struggled to make a significant impact in recent months. However, a bullish Pole & Flag pattern has appeared on the chart, signalled a possible continuation of the upward trend. A recent breakout shows the index is active again.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by GoodluckCapital
Tech-Finance Synergy Could Boost Nifty This Week!Nifty It NSE:CNXIT The IT index has been in a consolidation phase for an extended duration and developed a Cup & Handle pattern. After breaking out, the index has effectively retested the breakout level and is now on an upward trajectory. In the past week, the index gained approximately 3% and is showing robust strength, with expectations for further upward movement. Nifty Private Bank NSE:NIFTYPVTBANK The Private Bank index is currently experiencing a positive upward trend. It previously established a Cup & Handle pattern, and following a breakout, the index saw substantial gains, consistently recording higher highs and lows. After hitting an all-time high near the 26,650 level, the Private Bank index retraced to its immediate support zone and is now rising once more. With a significant increase of almost 2.7% last week, the index seems to be in a bullish phase at present.
NSE:NIFTYPVTBANKLong
by GoodluckCapital
KOTAKBANK - Keep an eye if it breaks the trendlineOn a monthly chart, #KOTAKBANK is creating Lower Highs and price is unable to break the trendline. However, a good volume is building up and price is consolidating, creating an inside bar setup. 50 SMA once broken but reclaimed back, chances are it should move up, but if it doesn't be ready to go back to 1545 levels. From current price levels, there is room to grow easily up to 25% up and once the all time high is broken, around 40% up side is predicted from the all time high(2253) levels in a long term. It would be good to see how it reacts in upcoming days.
NSE:KOTAKBANK
by cuteCockatoo27557
Bearish RSI divergence in Nifty, indicating a potential decline! Since October 2023, Nifty has demonstrated a robust upward trend, reaching an impressive peak of 25,333, marked an all-time high. However, the index has recently faced a setback, pulled back from this peak and currently indicating a downward movement. A significant bearish RSI divergence is evident on the daily chart, signaling a further potential decline for the index. On the downside, important support levels are lies between 23,900 and 24,100. It is crucial to recognize that a break below this support could lead to a significant drop in the index.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by GoodluckCapital
1
news base oppotunitynews: the company entered into a partnership with Onix Renewable Ltd. to supply steel structures and single-axis trackers for solar energy projects, with plans to eventually expand into dual-axis trackers. Onix Renewable Ltd., the partner company, is involved in various sectors of renewable energy and currently has 600 MW of projects underway, with an additional 2200 MW planned. The new partnership is expected to contribute to the success and durability of these solar projects. Rama Steel Tubes has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary named, Rama Defence on 31 August 2024. The new company will carry out business in the field of defence sector such as trading, importing, exporting, manufacturing, assembling and supplying of defence equipment, arms, ammunition, explosives and related military and security hardware etc focus: : rama steel ltd enter in 2 most demanding sectors defence and renewable energy. : fuuture growth of these sectors are too high, : after news in stock shows heavy fii inflows market cap before news 1500 cr current market cap 2052 cr price before news 10.30 current price 13.46 target price 24-30 *boost post and follow us for more news and valuation base data and research
NSE:RAMASTEELLong
by Tap_trader
Sector-Based Analysis: Navigating Today's Market DynamicsTo complement my earlier NIFTY analysis, let's dive into the key sectors and their potential impact on today's market movement. Here’s a quick breakdown of the major indices to watch and how they could influence NIFTY's direction: 1. Banking Sector (BANKNIFTY): Current Level: 51,383.95 (+32.95, +0.06%) Analysis: The banking sector remains mildly positive today, reflecting stability in major financial stocks. Any sustained upward move in BANKNIFTY above 51,400 could provide additional momentum to NIFTY. However, if BANKNIFTY fails to hold above the 51,300 support level, it may trigger some selling pressure on NIFTY as well. 2. Financial Services (CNXFIN): Current Level: 26,706.65 (+68.75, +0.29%) Analysis: The financial services index is showing resilience with a modest uptick. A positive performance in this sector often signals broader market strength. The continuation of buying interest in this index above 26,700 would support a bullish view for NIFTY. 3. Information Technology (CNXIT): Current Level: 42,940.00 (+152.40, +0.36%) Analysis: CNXIT is gaining momentum and is a key driver today. Tech stocks are often considered safer bets, and a rally in this sector could act as a strong tailwind for NIFTY. Watch for a breakout above 43,000 for further bullish confirmation. 4. Auto Sector (CNXAUTO): Current Level: 32,073.60 (-98.90, -0.31%) Analysis: The auto sector is underperforming, with notable weakness visible in several major auto stocks. If CNXAUTO continues to decline, it could create a drag on NIFTY, particularly if other sectors also show signs of fatigue. 5. FMCG (CNXFMCG): Current Level: 66,739.70 (+609.95, +0.95%) Analysis: The FMCG sector is exhibiting strong buying interest and is currently one of the best-performing sectors. Positive movement here might help sustain NIFTY's overall sentiment, especially if consumer demand trends remain favorable. 6. Metals (CNXMET): Current Level: 23,947.05 (-35.90, -0.15%) Analysis: The metal sector is seeing some selling pressure today, possibly due to profit booking after recent gains. Any further downside in CNXMET could weigh on market sentiment, but if it stabilizes above 23,900, it might not have a significant negative impact on NIFTY. 7. Pharma (CNXPHARMA): Current Level: 23,181.70 (-35.90, -0.15%) Analysis: Pharma is relatively flat today. The sector's lack of direction indicates uncertainty among investors. However, if it stays above the 23,150 level, it may provide some support to the overall market. Sector-Wise Conclusion: The Banking, Financial Services, and FMCG sectors are showing positive momentum and are crucial to driving NIFTY higher today. Auto and Metal sectors are underperforming; however, their impact might be mitigated if strength in other sectors persists. Keep a close watch on CNXIT and BANKNIFTY for further clues on market direction. A strong performance in these sectors could be the catalyst needed for NIFTY to break its current resistance. What to Watch Today: A sustained uptrend in BANKNIFTY and CNXIT will be critical for a bullish continuation. Any significant weakness in Auto or Metals could be a red flag for potential profit booking in NIFTY. Monitor the FMCG sector closely; its outperformance could provide stability to the broader market.
NSE:NIFTY
by theithachi
Greenply vs Greenpanel: A Clash of Plywood and MDF Giants!About Companies Greenply Industries NSE:GREENPLY is a prominent player in the plywood industry, dedicated to the production and trade of plywood and its associated products. Their extensive range features plywood, block board, wood flooring, medium density fiberboard, flush doors, and decorative veneers. Founded in 1984 by Shiv Prakash Mittal, the company operates out of Kolkata, India. In 2018, Greenpanel Industries NSE:GREENPANEL emerged as a separate entity from Greenply Industries, concentrating on the manufacturing of MDF boards and related products. Their product lineup includes wood flooring, veneers, flush doors, and more. Market Capitalization ● Greenply Industries - ₹ 4,751 Cr. ● Greenpanel Industries - ₹ 4,849 Cr. Technical Aspects Greenply ● The monthly chart reveals that the stock price encountered significant resistance around the 340 mark, resulting in a sharp decline that brought it down to the 70 level, where it found support. ● After an extented phase of consolidation, the stock formed a Double Bottom pattern. ● Once this pattern broke out, the price surged upward, and nearly 6.5 years later, in July 2024, the stock successfully broke through the previous resistance zone. ● Having maintained its position above this breakout level, the stock price is poised for further gains. Greenpanel ● After reaching a remarkable high close to 625, the stock faced a considerable downturn. ● It later found a solid support at the 260 level, which set the stage for its recovery. ● Nevertheless, the stock ran into resistance around the 430 mark, caused another retreat to the previous support zone. ● Currently, with a fresh upward trend, the price exhibits significant growth potential. Revenue Breakdown ● Greenply Industries generates a remarkable 77.4% of its total revenue from plywood and associated products, establishing itself as a dominant player with a 26% market share in the domestic plywood sector. ● In contrast, Greenpanel Industries focuses heavily on MDF boards, which make up an astounding 91% of its total sales, securing a 21% market share in the domestic MDF industry. Sales & Profit Analysis ● Greenply ➖ In the last three years, this company has experienced an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 23% in sales. ➖ However, profit growth has been modest, increased by only 3% during the same period. ➖ The company currently holds an operating profit margin of 9%, which is deemed acceptable. ➖ In the fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have dropped to 5.44, down from 7.44 in FY2023. ● Greenpanel ➖ Over the past three years, this company has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 15% in sales. ➖ In contrast, profit growth has been exceptional, soaring at a 26% CAGR during the same period. ➖ Currently, the company boasts an operating profit margin of 16%, a noteworthy figure. ➖ However, in fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have declined to 11.64, down from 20.92 in FY2023. Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Greenply Industries currently has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 48.75, which is marginally above its 1-year median PE of 48.1, yet it aligns closely with the industry average PE of 48.75. ➖ On the other hand, Greenpanel Industries shows a current PE of 33.94, indicating it may be overvalued relative to its 1-year median PE of 25.2, but it appears undervalued when compared to the industry PE of 48.75. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Greenply has a PB ratio of 6.69, suggesting it is considerably overvalued. ➖ However, Greenpanel Industries has a PB ratio of 3.68, which, although somewhat high, does not indicate overvaluation. ● Intrinsic Value ● Greenply is presently valued at ₹984, a figure that is approximately 2.4 times its intrinsic worth of ₹158. This suggests that the stock is currently overvalued. ● Conversely, Greenpanel has a market price of ₹395, roughly 1.5 times its intrinsic value of ₹259, which similarly indicates that this stock is also overvalued at this time. Product Demand analysis (Plywood vs MDF) ● Greenply presently has an inventory turnover ratio of 4.2, an improvement from 3.96 three years ago. ● In comparison, Greenpanel Industries shines with a current inventory turnover ratio of 5.08, a substantial increase from 3.71 three years earlier. ● These figures clearly indicate a rising demand for MDF products, highlighting a promising trend in the market. Company Capex ● Greenply has significantly reduced its capital expenditure, slashing it to 123 crore from last year's 412 crore, indicating a lack of a robust capex program. ● In contrast, Greenpanel has made a remarkable leap in its capital investments, raising its capex to 344 crore from just 80 crore in the previous financial year. Debt Analysis ● Greenpanel Industries stands strong with a manageable debt of 296 crores and a favorable debt to equity ratio of 0.22, indicating that debt is not a concern for the company. With an impressive interest coverage ratio of 16, Greenpanel is well-equipped to handle its loan repayments without any issues. ● Other side, Greenply Industries carries a higher debt burden of 549 crores, reflected in a debt to equity ratio of 0.77. With an interest coverage ratio of only 3.33, the company may face challenges in meeting its loan repayment obligations. Cashflow Analysis ● Greenply has experienced an impressive increase in its operating cash flow, jumping to 111 crore from a mere 62 crore in FY23. ● Greenpanel Industries has struggled to convert its profits into cash, with its operating cash flow declined significantly to 135 crore from 337 crore in FY2023. Shareholding Pattern ● Greenply ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are dramatically raising their investments. In the latest June quarter, their stake has surged to 4.91%, a notable increase from just 2.15% in June 2023. ➖ Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) currently hold 30.33% as of the June quarter, down from 32.41% last year. ● Greenpanel ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are consistently divesting their positions in this stock, with their current ownership now at a mere 2.12%, a significant drop from 4.3% a year ago ➖ In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are steadily boosting their investments, with their current stake rising to 26.71%, up from 21.60% in June 2023. Some Important Facts ● Shifting Demand From Plywood to MDF ➖ Worldwide, the consumption ratio of MDF to plywood stands at 80:20; however, in India, this ratio is notably reversed, with plywood dominating at 20:80 as of 2022. ➖ Industry experts predict that by 2030, this ratio in India will shift to an even 50:50. ➖ This shift indicates significant growth opportunities for the MDF sector in India, particularly as it is poised to capture a larger share of the low and medium-grade plywood market, which currently makes up 85% of the plywood industry in the country. MDF Industry Growth Drivers ● Growth of Online Home Décor Platforms ➖ The growth of online home décor platforms like Pepper Fry, Fab Furbish, and Urban Ladder has increased the need for ready-to-assemble (RTA) furniture, impacting the MDF industry directly. ● Reduction in Furniture Cycle Time ➖ The increasing popularity of stylish, comfortable furniture crafted from MDF has significantly reduced the home renovation timeline, slashing it from the previous 15 to 20 years down to just 7 to 8 years. ● Cost Advantage Over Plywood ➖ MDF is much cheaper than plywood because it is made from leftover wood materials, both hardwood and softwood. Conclusion ➖ After examining all the factors, it appears that the MDF industry is poised for significant growth in the near future, outpacing the Plywood sector. As a result, companies such as Greenpanel Industries are likely to reap substantial benefits, which will have a direct positive effect on their share prices.
NSE:GREENPANELLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
CASTROLIND Trade Analysis for Buy using Wyckoff methodWyckoff Story Prior to trading range we were in uptrend and then we have BC and CHoCH (Change of character). Let’s assume our bias is accumulation based on CHoCH as we don’t see lot of supply in the CHoCH. Down wave Analysis We can see that the volatility of the down wave is decreasing from Phase A to Phase C, confirming the accumulation Bias. Volume Analysis We have supply decrease from Phase A to Phase C indicating supply is being absorbed. Spring We have spring in Phase C Major Sign of Strength we have MaSOS in phase D with good volume indicating institutions are present in buying. Final View Bullish on the stock
NSE:CASTROLINDLong
by ksujit08