Get started

INDIAVIX

What Is India VIX & Its impact on the Market Q: What is India VIX? Ans) India VIX, or India Volatility Index, measures the market's expectation of volatility over the near term. It is often referred to as the "Fear Gauge" as it indicates the level of fear or risk in the market. Higher VIX values indicate higher expected volatility, while lower values suggest lower expected Volatility. Q: What does a High India VIX indicate? Ans) A High India VIX indicates that traders expect significant volatility in the market. This often corresponds with market uncertainty or fear, possibly due to Economic Events, Political instability, or other factors that might cause large price swings. Q: What does a L ow India VIX indicate? Ans) Low India VIX suggests that traders expect the market to be relatively stable in the near term. This typically corresponds with periods of market confidence and lower perceived risk. Q: How do major events affect India VIX? Ans) Major Events such as Elections, Economic Announcements, Geopolitical Tensions, or Natural Disasters can significantly impact India VIX. These events often lead to increased uncertainty and Fear, causing India VIX to spike as traders anticipate greater market volatility. These are some of the Basic information about the India VIX and its impact on the Market Like & Follow for more Educational Posts ✍️
NSE:INDIAVIXEducation
by Himanu_HATradeTalk1
Nifty witnessed correction for 4th straight sesion Nifty remained in negative trend in today's session & closed near 22700 level Market continued with its correction phase for another session Investors seek to book profit in Mixed Global cues & ahead of imp US PCE Core data. A Bearish candle is formed on daily chart The imp upside hurdle is placed around 22850/900 level whereas downside support is around 22600 zone Track for price to form Price Action Patterns at Imp Levels, However market may show volatility during the last phase of elections Keep Tracking Charts *For Educational Purpose Learn & Practice Price Action setups
NSE:NIFTY
by Himanu_HATradeTalk1
Bank Nifty Analysis post expiry!If you look at 30 min chart of Bank nifty for today session it was clear from start of the day that buyers are going take the session look at first 30 min candle a pure "bullish wick reversal pattern" it confirmed that options buyers will take over the day!! Already discussed on 31st Jan analysis keep eye on opening for confirmation of trade. "Check" 45400 ce was trading at 200 at 10 am at 10.15 am it closed at 556 a net 323 points candle it makes your day! lets look for tomorrow might be same action as today as bank nifty was trading in range in later sessions. But also failed to break resistance twice May take jump from last support at 45600. Still bullish side are bit stronger. Gap down opening can change the view from bullish to bearish. Resis - 46200,46550 Supp - 45670,45400
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Price_actiontaker14
29 Jan ’24 — All 6 Green Candles, Nifty Stance UpgradedNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Yesterday’s W pattern is no longer valid as today’s action has nullified it. Our stance continues to be neutral with a slight inclination to the bearish side. It seems like FIIs are not done unwinding their positions — the run-up to the Budget 2024 looks interesting.” 4mts chart Two major things stand out today Nifty gets a small gap-up, but most gains came via trading - which shows how the control went to the Bulls. Zero pullback - one-way trip. Gifty was contradicting with a value of 21650+ and Nifty50 pre open was suggesting only an open around 21450 levels. The 200pts variance seemed pretty odd earlier in the day, but once N50 started steaming ahead - it made perfect sense. From the previous close, Nifty went up 394pts ~ 1.85% today - most importantly it took out the 21491 resistance with so much ease. The only thing that did not make sense today was India VIX rising 13% to 15.6 levels. 63mts chart We are changing our stance from neutral to bullish as we had all 6 green candles today. Ideally, the stance change should come only after the 21913 resistance breach - but we are taking a bit of risk here. The pattern played out to be a W (double bottom). We would now look for bullish opportunities and the first target would be 21913. The global macros are not looking good with the war in the Middle East, news from Taiwan, and news from N Korea. Hope our markets will give a strong clue in case the situations escalate.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
09 Jan ’24 — BankNifty made the BEARS🐻 proud today ! BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ BankNifty was more sensible today. Firstly the gap-up was not so huge to scare away the bears - so they hung around. Secondly, there was no breakaway momentum, by 11.07 things were getting pretty clear that the upmove ran out of steam. 4mts chart link And when the selling came, it was ferocious. Bears also had to make sure the support level of 47539 had to be taken out with style. The RED candles near that price zone are ample proof of that. The fall was over 782pts ~ 1.63% which took BN into RED. Nifty on the other hand stayed in green thanks to NiftyIT, LT, and ADANI group. 63mts chart link Since we have the BN expiry tomorrow, it may be a treat to watch how the strike price premiums could surge. India VIX was not favoring the bears today, if we have a strong price action in the forenoon the IV is bound to add to the momentum. Our stance of bearishness continues with the first target of 46931 followed by 46574.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
28th Dec ’23 - New ATH on the last day of the Quarter & MonthNifty Quarterly Analysis Nifty has gained 2263pts ~ 11.6% in the 3rd Quarter of FY2023-24. Almost on 9 particular days, we hit new all-time highs. 1D chart link - click here Nifty Monthly Analysis Surprisingly 70% of the gains for the Q3 came in the December series. We rose 8.21% ~ 1653pts. 8 out of the 9 ATH breaks also came in the Dec series. It really was a December to remember for the bulls. 1D chart link - click here Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. Anyway — I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.” 4mts chart link - click here On the last day of the month and Q3, Nifty makes a new all-time high of 21801. So the magic level of 21800 is conquered. Guessing most of the buying would have been propelled by the FIIs and that too after 14.59. India VIX went over 16% but ended the day at 15.14. I feel like the Bears have lost control of the situation here, not just that they can check the bull runs but are ceding territory far too easily. Investors really love bull markets, their portfolio grows greener day by day. But from a trading perspective, a high level of euphoria is dangerous. The CALL options of the 04 Jan series were trading 25 to 40% higher than usual rates. The collapse of this excess in the last 15mts would have taken many traders by surprise. When we place market orders - we seldom realize the “fair value” of strikes. 63mts chart link- click here Nifty is definitely on cloud 9, the newfound momentum is intact and almost all the sectorial indices are strong. What next? Is a big question. Just like a goods train, it is difficult to stop the bull run that fast. Global markets are also at all-time-high levels and the macros are improving. For tomorrow, I wish to continue my bullish stance with the first support level at 21652.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
INDIA VIX ✓ Targeting 21,30 ???NSE:INDIAVIX CMP: 14.58 Strong WEEKLY Support Targeting to 21,30 ??? #Study, Learn & Earn. If you love this post please like and comment your thoughts below. That will be a great motivation for me to post similar ideas ahead. Disclaimer: All the information posting on this page are for the educational purpose only, we are not SEBI registered financial advisor. We wont recommend any BUY/SELL of stocks. Contact your financial advisor before taking any action
NSE:INDIAVIXLong
by Art_of_charting_Knowledge
19th Dec ’23 - BankNifty and NiftyIT collusion to get N50 to ATHBankNifty Analysis Going neutral on BankNifty worked out pretty well today. But things were not looking in favor till we got the reversal at 10.03. Till then BN was following the falling price action from yesterday. I was kind of worried that we may even re-renter the ascending channel today. 4mts chart link - click here How and why we got the reversal - No clue. But BN climbed an impressive 369pts ~ 0.78pts to 48010 levels before giving up gains to close flat. The final close is 0.01% - how much more neutral can we be?? 4mts chart link - click here The ATH on Nifty50 looks like was planted. NiftyIT was falling pretty strongly and it was looking like a one-way trip down. NiftyIT recovered an impressive 423pts ~ 1.21% to help N50 take out the ATHs. So the Sync between NiftyIT, Reliance, and BankNifty was perfectly aligned to get the job done. And after that - things went back to normal. NiftyIt gave up 239pts and BN also dropped 227pts. 63mts chart link - click here The neutral zone is highlighted by 2 horizontal blue lines. Since tomorrow is BankNifty expiry - I am really looking forward to seeing a directional attempt. I wish to stay neutral till then. BankNifty options premiums were looking pretty good today and were unlike the usual Tuesdays we see. VIX near the 14 range is really helping the option sellers.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
Q&A_ How to read India VIX and what does it actually mean?Namaste! India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of NIFTY Options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. In simple words, it tells us the % market is expecting Nifty to move (whether up or down) in the upcoming 30 calendar days. India VIX chart analysis:- You must have noticed that each time VIX touch 10-11% levels, it bounces off. Did you ever think what is the annual average return of Nifty 50? Well, it's around 12%. Don't forget, Nifty also has yearly dividend yield of around 1%, so the total becomes:- India VIX support = 11% Dividend yield of Nifty = 1%, total 12%. I agree, the upper statement sounds non-sense, but in simple terms, it feels logical to me. VIX has to come down, for the Nifty to go up. In other words, we should be ready for a correction in Nifty, until the VIX touches 11% levels. India VIX goes in the opposite direction than Nifty 50. Why? Because, the long term trend of the Nifty is up. Hence, VIX will only rise, when there is a shift (expectation) to the downside. Nifty50 chart analysis:- 1. Nifty has hit the strong weekly trendline resistance, this is the 4th time. I am expecting at least 1 more corrective rally on the downside, which makes it a 5 time resistance. The 5 number is based on the recent history of Nifty 50. Since 2016 to 2020, there were 5 supports, and 5 resistance in the same period. 2. ADX (Average Direction Index) is hovering around 22 points and sloping downwards. It generally means, the market isn't liking the short term uptrend, if it could, then ADX must rise. Q: When the next correction starts, will all the stocks in the Nifty 50 fall? A: No, but a small yes. All stocks will correct, but the overvalued will correct more. Q: Should I wait for the correction to invest in? A: Nope. You should start investing now, because many stocks in the Nifty 50 has been become undervalued due to this correction (like the IT sector except TCS). Choose them wisely. I don't recommend investing in more than 10 companies of the Nifty 50. Obviously, you should not concentrate your portfolio in any of the sectors, but diverse in the companies and sectors whose business you understand. Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:INDIAVIX
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from US markets last Friday. The options data did not indicate any directional bias. Even India VIX fell to 9.68 by 10.00 indicating a collapse of The best evidence was India VIX which fell to a session low of 9.68 by 10.00, unbelievably down by 9.5%. I had 2 short positions on Nifty, long puts and short calls. I planned to unwind the short calls and get into the FinNifty options to take advantage of the expiry today. This plan was spoiled by the 10.00 AM red candle that prevented me from switching. What happened from there was simply magical. By 11.40 we tested the first support of 19446 and by 13.30 we broke that. Honestly, I thought that's how the day ends. The real party was just starting. Between 14.05 to close we fell a massive 180pts ~ 0.93% and took out the 19310 crucial support pretty easily. On the 1hr chart, its more clear and loud. The 14.15 candle shaved off 165pts ~ 0.85% and the length of that candle does tell a story. Since that support is broken, it may pave the way for further downfall. To prove this point, had to bring up the daily chart. See the encircled region, Nifty sent 3 white soldiers on 28th June to break out from the 18880 level. That helped it conquer 2 new ATHs on 20th July and 15th Sep. Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is - the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969). Since we have a holiday tomorrow (Dussehra) we may have to watch how SPX reacts for 2 days. If the Global macros improve, a brief relief rally above 19310 may be visible, but seeing the strength of the RED daily candle, I wish to continue my bearish stance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now. As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right. On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
17th Oct ’23 - Nifty Breaches Resistance Zone 19776 - PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early — patience is gold” Nifty got a mega boost by the gap-up open of almost 118pts ~ 0.6%. Since it took out my resistance zone, I had to change my bias from neutral to bullish. Interestingly Nifty looked strong till 13.20 after which it shed 72pts ~ 0.36% in 50mts. Despite that misadventure, we still respected the support of 19776. The final closing was also quite good and above the 19800 levels. On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are looking bullish despite a war in the Middle East, surging gold, surging crude oil, and surging treasury yields in the US. Why are Indian stock indices insulated from these multi-headed shocks? Either the fundamentals are not bad or the technicals (charts) have not priced in these anomalies. As a technical trader, the only option for me is to follow the charts even while knowing something’s off. India VIX @ 10.69, US VIX @ 17.88
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
11 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Full Short, But VIX disappointsThe first 5mts candle today had a swing range of 0.34% ~ 66pts but this did not drive up the OTM premiums. The majority of traders have forgotten what fear was like. India VIX was up 2 to 3% then and still in the 11.5 range. The complacency has gotten into the traders so deep that they think some dip buyers will come in and rally the markets by closing hour. Today we did not witness that, Nifty50 for a change did not see dip buyers in the last hour. Instead the selling was intensifying. Even then - there is no fear, in fact VIX closed with just a 1.07% gain. As I write this article, US VIX is 15.78 and SPX is just 3.23% down from the 52 week highs. Also now could be the best time for the big bears to enter the market as the valuations & prices are lofty and they get good meat! Glad yesterday’s short call worked out, but nothing to be proud of as 19296 (recent swing low) was not taken out. We did not even get near it today. You might be thinking I am pessimistic about Indian stock markets and a permabear - the reality is I am not. There is a severe disconnect between the stock valuations and the actual economy. I will try to publish the research “Why a full blown depression is a blessing for the poor '' by this weekend. The prices of day-to-day essentials are so high that low income households are slipping into poverty. Stock markets reflect the rich, not the poor. The broader economy can remain down and stock markets up for a long period of time, its just euphoria. But what bends usually is the stock price! On the 1hr TF, Nifty50 has fallen back below the bearish trend line. We will continue to go short till this status quo holds. The first target to take out will be the recent swing low of 19296. The next support comes at 19190.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram