Trading indicators Trading indicators are mathematical formulas that give you a way to plot information on a price chart. This information can be used to identify possible signals, trends, and shifts in momentum. In simple terms, trading indicators can highlight when something might be happening.
Learn how to understand the concept of a stock trading indicator, how it affects your trading results and how to use to your benefit during day trading!
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) ...
Bollinger Bands Trading Indicator. ...
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ...
Fibonacci Trading Indicator. ...
Pivot Points.
Indices
SMC Trading with Professionals In conclusion, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) provides traders with a strategic framework that focuses on understanding the actions and motives of market makers, particularly institutions such as banks and hedge funds.
It compares favourably to other strategies, such as swing trading and scalping, although each are much more appropriate in a short term timeframe. If you are looking for the latest and greatest strategy traders are raving about, then SMC might be a great fit for you.
Journey of Advanced Divergence TradingCommon types of trading are intraday, positional, swing, long-term trading, scalping, and momentum trading. Trading involves exchanging goods or services. In stock trading, investors buy and sell stocks from companies within regulated markets overseen by Indian regulatory bodies.
Master these skills and then you'll get a genuine shot at being a trading master.
Skills #1 and #2 – Research and Analysis. ...
Skill #3 – Adapting Your Market Analysis to Changing Market Conditions. ...
Skill #4 – Staying in the Game. ...
Skills #5 and #6 – Discipline and Patience. ...
Bonus Skill #7 – Record Keeping. ...
In the End.
Bearish trend in Nifty(Weekly) (In Hindi)NSE:NIFTY On Indices analysis, we are looking at some of the top Indices at the weekly level. It is clearly visible that Nifty is on the bearish side and holding at key support. The next key support could be 23,500. Last week's bearish candle somewhat engulfed the previous bullish candle, confirming the downtrend.
The rest of the other Indices are also looking at a downward trend with a few exceptions like IT, Pharma & Metal, which have made a double top pattern for a trend reversal.
Option Data Trading– Option Chain Analysis can be used to find out the actual trend of the particular stock or index. Usually institutions and big funds sell options. By finding out which strike has more open interest, we can actually understand the support and resistance levels of a security (be it stocks or indices) for that expiry.
How to do option analysis? Option analysis involves studying various parameters like strike prices, premiums, implied volatility, open interest, and time decay. Combining this data with technical and fundamental analysis helps assess potential trade setups and risks.
Histogram(MACD) Divergence Trading Let us discuss the MACD indicator strategy and histogram. I know being a chartist you are familiar with this tool.
Hence I hope this will be a revision for you. Assuming you already know this topic, you should know that MACD Histogram is derived from MACD.
To me, it is the effect of MACD (cause), without which MACD Histogram would not have been born. I hope you can relate it to the previous paragraph. If not, no problem. Carry on reading.
But before proceeding further I would request you to recapitulate MACD (moving average convergence divergence). Thanks for converging your thoughts with that of mine. I am glad. It will help me to explain this article without taking the additional burden.
MACD Histogram Peak-Trough Divergence
By now you must have understood how the histogram dances to the tunes of prices. If one looks at it closely then one can easily identify the divergences.
You will notice that a peak and trough divergence is formed with two peaks or two troughs in the MACD Histogram.
Usually, it can be segregated into two parts, i.e. bullish peak and trough divergence and bearish peak and trough divergence.
Alright, I will explain you in short.
Bullish Peak-Trough Divergence
It is formed when MACD makes a lower low and on the contrary, MACD-Histogram makes a higher low. One thing you should keep in mind, i.e., well-defined troughs define the health of a bullish peak-trough divergence.
bullish peak trough divergence
Bearish Peak-Trough Divergence
It is formed when MACD makes a higher high and on the contrary MACD Histogram makes a lower high.
One thing you should keep in mind, i.e., well-defined peaks define the health of a bearish peak-trough divergence.
Nifty view for Dec 02, 2022 - Go short Dear Friends,
As discussed yesterday that all the stakes is at 18800 we had a single closing above 18800 yesterday and today we have not even touch 18800 today. I have turned bearish and I have some position on bearish side. if we close below 18618 today then we should witness a 18325 as first target next week.
For the second session for the day, if we come close to 18700/18710 then we should take 18740/750 as SL and take the bearish trade for the target of new low below 18639.
Please save your hard earn money and always trade with hedge.
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week & year ending 31-12DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 31-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Nifty as well as Bank Nifty have ended the week on a positive note, however, this positivity comes with increased number of Covid cases in India and also overseas. I am in no way making an attempt to create panic, but I will still be cautious as the markets have sold-off in a big way for no obvious reason - for example on 20-12-21 when Nifty hit a low of 16410. In my view, a weekly close above 17625-50 is when things may seem to be stable.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 35597 on 31-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 34233 on 27-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 1364 points or 3.98% from the lowest level
In the last week, Bank Nifty has made an upward move of 625 points or 1.79% which is refreshingly a good sign.
Insight:
Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 31264
Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 35481
Change - 4218
% 13.49
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 31-12-21 = 17354 up by 188 points or 1.09% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 17400.80 on 31-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 16833.20 on 27-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 567 points or 3.37% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 350 points or 2.06% which indicates a good positive change in the short term trend.
Insight:
Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 13982
Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 17354
Change -3372
% 24.12
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -35,409 Crores
DIIs = +30.675 Crores
Net is = -4,734 Crores
As mentioned last week, there was a slow down already in FII selling and it continued during the last week which brought about some relief to the downward biased market moves.
Conclusion:
On an annual basis, Nifty has clearly outperformed Bank Nifty which has been able to perform just above half the % gain than that of Nifty. This is indicating a very depressive picture of what happened in 2021.
At the same time, I view this as an opportunity for Bank Nifty to outperform and become the recovery engine for the overall market.
FIIs have turned net buyers for 2 days in the week and only once in the week their selling was more than 1,000 crores. We have to see how the next week goes. If FIIs keep buying even in the next week, then the market mood would change for the better with some sort of certainty.
Insight:
India Vix as on 31-12-20 21.09
India Vix as on 31-12-21 16.22
Change 04.87
% 23.09
The above is a significant drop over a period of one year and explains the logic behind the rise in the Indices.
Only Nifty has a corresponding increase to the drop in India Vix as Bank Nifty has remained under pressure for most part of the year.
Since this week’s analysis is also yearly analysis, I will share a separate post and a video that takes care of the Leaders & Laggards of Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. And that is why I have not compiled separate conclusions for the two indices.
On a broader scale for the next few days, it is important for Nifty to end a week above 17650 and for Bank Nifty it is important to close a week above 36800-37000. This is when the indices are likely to shift to the next higher gear.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
31-12-21
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week ending 17 Dec 21DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 17-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 17-12-21 = 35618 up by -746 points or -2.06% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 37581 on 13-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 10-12-21 = 35535 on 17-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 2046 points or -5.76% from the lowest level
In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 1487 points or 4.01% which is a bearish sign.
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 17-12-21 = 16985 up by -181 points or -1.05% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 17629 on 13-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 17-12-21 = 16966 on 17-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = -663 points or -1.91% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made a downward move of 526 points or 3.00% which is a bearish sign.
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -26,684 Crores
DIIs = 19.487 Crores
Net is = -7,197 Crores
Based on last week’s workings, I estimate a net FII-DII selling of 12,500 Crores and the way it is posed now, it seems we may unfortunately hit the target.
Conclusion:
The FII selling is concentrated on the index heavyweights which is impacting the entire market sentiment.
DIIs have not been able to hold on to the selling pressure though they may be doing their best in terms of buying every dip. But the action of Friday 17-12 indicated that the DIIs were also not convinced that we have reached the bottom.
SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a -23 points close. This may change the moment market opens as every rise is sold in to.
BANK NIFTY
When HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank decide not to support the index, there is no way other members of the family would be able to lift the index. When these 3 are in selling mode, SBIN also joins the party and then the game turns one sided.
Bank Nifty has been oscillating between underperforming to outperforming Nifty and has been moving all over the place.
Kotak Bank has been experiencing extreme volatility as it moved from a high of 1890 on 16-12 to a low below 1800 on 17-12. That is a movement of 5% in 1 trading session which is quite a significant one.
NIFTY
The IT heavyweight Infosys could do little despite going up 5%+ in the last 2 sessions. The selling pressure was so intense that the positivity was outnumbered. In the process, Infosys managed to hit its ATH which is a good sign.
HDFC and Reliance in particular have been hammered by the FIIs and that is one of the reasons why Nifty keeps drifting on the lower end.
HDFC has fallen more than 10% from its ATH and that is not a good sign at all.
The HDFC twins and the Bajaj twins have to do a major turnaround for the indices to change the color otherwise, we will keep witnessing 1 step forward and 2-3 backwards in the coming week as well.
17630 on Nifty and 37600 on Bank Nifty are the levels that need to be overcome on a closing basis for the bulls to regain the momentum. Any close below that would keep providing intraday to swing opportunities only.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
19-12-21
A bit hesitant and a lost opportunity!A BIT HESITANT & A LOST OPPORTUNITY
Hello Readers!
Usually, I prefer discussing my intraday trades unless they had some great learnings and or earnings! Friday, 01 Oct was a regular day and so I did not share my trades as I do not want to influence the readers with my way of trading and would rather share my learnings and experiences than my trades. It is better to help someone find a job than keep feeding the person. Self-dependency is the motive behind not giving “tips” or “trades”. Leave aside the fact that I cannot do such things since I am SEBI unregistered.
However, when there is great learning, I must share and so this post.
On 1-10-21, I went Long in Nifty Futures at 17480. I picked up a Futures contract for the first time in 6 months as the enhanced margin requirements by SEBI have made it hard to trade in Futures as I do not deploy the entire capital to trading. The intention of the trade was to ride the price action as long as possible. I was pleased that I was able to catch the proverbial “Falling Knife”!
Based on my reading Nifty had crucial support around 17400-420 so a 60-75 point risk for a larger gain was reasonable. Nifty then fell a bit and then bounced back and hit 17540+ Futures. I was happy but my happiness was short-lived as it fell from around that level and then came back below my cost price. I held on to the position as the view was swing or intraday depending upon where it would close.
Nifty bounced back again and went to the level and then yet again it fell from there in the last 40 minutes. I sensed that Nifty is giving signs of weakness around 17550 so I should exit and take a fresh view just before close. I exited around 17540. Soon Nifty fell further and I was happy as my view was validated. I now had around 5 minutes to decide and I thought through and did a contextual reading that the British Index FTSE was in good green so Nifty may open positive. At the same time, I thought - it has fallen 35 points from the high showing weakness. I was in multiple minds not even double! I finally let it go with the logic that it is better to avoid Futures position over a weekend.
It is 1115h now on 4 Oct and Nifty has made a high of 15745, +265 points from buy price. Since I had exited at 17540 and had an opportunity to buy it again at 17515, I should add 25 points more to it to work out the Opportunity Cost of “weekend hesitation”.
So the Opportunity Cost is as under:
17745 - 17480 + 25 = 290
I had 1 lot so 290*50 = 14,500
Funds required = 109,500
% Return Lost = 13.24
LEARNINGS:
It is better to stick to the original view and hold on to a position as long as it is above the cost even if it is on a weekend or ahead of a market holiday.
Contextual reading is good, however, the process is more important than anything else.
A switch in the view from Positional to Intraday is not a good approach unless something has really gone wrong with the trade basis or it has been severely invalidated.
There is no safe investment and risk of losing the book gains is part of the trading process.
Such hesitation is Okay as it was after a long time the Futures contract was traded - so the best way to learn and move on is to acknowledge the lost opportunity and move on.
I hope the above helps you plan your trades and better manage them as well.
In case you have experienced similar incidences in the last, please do share for the benefit of all.
Happy Learning & Earning!
Umesh
4-10-21