19th July' 2022 (Evening) -- Market Analysis19th July' 2022 (Evening) -- | Written at 11.00 PM |
The markets opened gap down today to weak global cues. After opening though there was nothing to look back at. After an initial hurdle at 16325, the markets breached this level and closed strong with #Nifty at 16340 and #BankNifty at 35720.
While i was expecting #Nifty may take down 16325, I actually expected #BankNifty to face a stiffer resistance at 35500. However, #BankNifty actually did face resistance at 35500, but then eventually took down 35500 level.
Let us look at the levels now, before we get on to discuss :
With 16325 down for #Nifty, we may now be looking at 16500 as the next level. This one could be strong. On the other hand #BankNifty is now looking at 36000. Now this may come tomorrow itself, if the US markets continue to trade the way they are at the moment.
#DowJones is trading 570 point in green as I am writing these notes and #Nasdaq is trading 280 points in green. This may lead to a gap up opening tomorrow and #Nifty may open in 16400-16450 level, #Bank Nifty on the other hand may also open near 36000 levels.
So the game begins from here, We need to watch the levels of 16250 and 16500 on #Nifty and 35400 and 36100 for #BankNifty. A breach of these levels on either side may decide the next course in short term.
Surprising part is that Dollar has been particularly strong and INR is weakening against it.. However, the #FII selling has now weakened, probably a selling fatigue. So they are now playing to our levels. Whether, 16500 is the level for now, we will come to know soon.
As of now, a bit of bullishness is seen in the #FII positions on the FnO side. There was some longs created in Index futures, coupled with cash buying and also put selling. I feel this has been more tuning with our levels, rather than a change of stance from their side. A sentiment change is also driven from the rally in US markets.
Options OI indicate a support at 16200 and 35500 for #Nifty and #Bank Nifty respectively. However, we have now reached closer to 16600 on #Nifty and 36000 on #BAnk Nifty. A huge number of call writers are sitting at these levels. So lets see how this tug off war between bulls and bears plays out.
#DollarIndex is now a bit eased at 106.485, however, i see support coming in at 103.4 for this and I would continue to be bullish on #DXY till then. This could give some more space to our rally. #CrudeOil has inched up slightly, don't think this would affect us as of now. #US10Y Yields are above 3 and stay put there.
The Euro #Inflation (#CPI) was high today, though was on expected lines. So no surprises as such on this front. The US building permit data is still bullish, indicating strong economic activity in this segment.
Keep enjoying the good times till they last..........
