EURUSD beginning a bullish channel since November 2019Good macros from European countries make the EURUSD follow a book bullish trend at the same time that Fed is trying to keep up its repo balance sheet and dollar is weakening against major currencies (refer to DXY where it has broken second support). The fact that Iran looks like is going to retaliate any moment from now does not give a positive scenario to markets and even though it was the US who issued the order to kill General Qasem Soleimani, a hard response from Iran (until now it has only withdrawn from the nuclear agreement) would mean an appreciation of the dollar currency as it is considered as the safe heaven. Other currencies, despite their good macros would tumble. As this is the worst case scenario, EURUSD contemplates this possibility and does not react as expected towards good macros from European countries. Besides, today's US's ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders (MoM) were better than expected which gives wings to the greenback. My position would be: Start a bullish position in EURUSD at 1.1118, bearing the risk it can go further below at 1.1101 maximum and close at 1.1245, bearing the possible missed opportunity at 1.1260.
