U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) –Key Resistance& Bearish Target Analysis📊 Key Observations:
🔵 Resistance Zone (📍~103.5 Level)
A strong resistance area (🔵 blue box) is marked, indicating potential selling pressure if the price reaches this level.
The price is moving upwards (📈) towards this resistance, so watch for rejection or breakout.
🔵 Support/Target Zone (📍~101.5 Level)
A lower support zone (🔵 blue box) is marked as the bearish target 🎯.
If the price fails at resistance, it may head downwards (📉) to this level.
📉 Recent Price Action:
🚀 Sharp drop followed by a rebound (📈).
The price is currently moving back up (🔼), possibly forming a lower high before another drop.
📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA 9 - 102.488)
The price is hovering above the 9-period DEMA (📏), showing short-term bullish momentum.
If the price rejects resistance and falls below the DEMA, a bearish continuation (📉) is likely.
🚀 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 🔵 resistance, it may continue rising (📈) to higher levels.
❌ Bearish Rejection: If price fails at resistance, expect a drop (📉) towards 101.5 🎯.
J-DXY
DXY Monthly Analysis: Key Support Holding, Bullish Move Ahead?📊 DXY Monthly Chart Analysis (March 27, 2025)
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 104.267, with notable resistance ahead.
Price is consolidating within a key demand zone (~102.5–104) after rejecting higher levels.
Technical Levels:
Support Zone: 100.2–104 (Highlighted in purple)
Resistance Zone: 112.5–114.7 (Highlighted in purple)
Major Resistance: 114.77 (Previous high, acting as a supply zone)
200-MA Support: Located below current price, offering a long-term bullish confluence.
Market Structure:
Price remains in a higher time-frame bullish trend but is experiencing a correction.
The "BOSS" level (Break of Structure) suggests a prior bullish breakout.
If the demand zone holds, a bullish continuation towards 112.5–114.7 is possible.
Projected Move:
A bounce from 102–104 could trigger a rally toward the upper resistance zone (~112.5).
A break below 100.2 could indicate a shift in trend and further downside.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a critical decision point. Holding the current support zone (~102–104) could fuel a bullish continuation toward 112–114, while a breakdown below 100.2 would weaken bullish momentum.
BULLISH ON US DOLLAR!As you can see on the chart, I am bullish on DXY. If you look at it from a technical perspective, you can see that after the accumulation schematic was complete, the dollar started gaining value. Price now needs to enter the markup phase. Looking at the current structure, price has formed a new trading range while breaking the high/structure to the left. A sharp reaction from that zone is a good sign. If the 4H candle closes bullish like this, it could be a strong indicator of bullish momentum building. Let's see. Overall, a pretty straightforward read.
Blessings, T
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Update💥 US Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Update: Expert Analysis and Trading Strategies 💥
In just a few hours, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and update its economic projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This is a highly anticipated event that will shape trading decisions in the coming weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently fluctuating within the 103.00 - 104.00 range, reflecting investor caution ahead of the critical updates.
1. Interest Rate Decision and Its Impact on DXY
The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. However, the market is more focused on signals about future rate cuts, particularly in 2025.
Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting speech will be the key driver. The market will closely watch for hints on monetary policy, inflation, and the US economic outlook.
If the Fed adopts a hawkish tone (indicating sustained high rates or even further hikes), the DXY could rally strongly. Conversely, a dovish signal could weaken the USD.
2. Technical Analysis of DXY
🔴 Key Support: 103.18
The DXY is currently under pressure at the 103.18 support level. A break below this level could push the index further down to 103.00 or even 102.50.
This is a crucial zone, as failure to hold here would signal continued USD weakness in the short term.
🟢 Major Resistance: 105.00 and 105.57
If the DXY rebounds from current support levels, the next challenges will be the resistance zones at 105.00 and 105.57.
The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages (MA) on the daily chart are also key indicators to watch. A break above these MAs could reinforce the bullish trend.
📉 Short-Term Trend:
On the 4H chart, the DXY is in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. However, upcoming macroeconomic factors (the rate decision and Powell’s speech) could trigger a reversal or increased volatility.
Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are in neutral territory, suggesting the market is awaiting clearer signals.
3. Trading Strategy Before and After the FOMC Decision
🔍 Before the Fed Announcement:
Caution is key. The market may experience mild fluctuations during the wait. Traders should avoid large positions and wait for clearer signals.
Closely monitor key support and resistance levels: 103.18 (support) and 105.00 (resistance).
🔥 After the Fed Announcement:
Scenario 1: Fed Holds Rates and Signals Hawkish Tone
The DXY could rally strongly, targeting resistance levels at 105.00 and 105.57.
Strategy: Look for buy opportunities when the DXY bounces off support or breaks above resistance.
Scenario 2: Fed Signals a Dovish Tone
The DXY could drop sharply, breaking below 103.18 and heading toward 102.50.
Strategy: Look for sell opportunities when the DXY breaks support or fails to surpass resistance.
Scenario 3: Fed Holds Rates Without Clear Signals
The DXY may continue to fluctuate within the 103.00 - 104.00 range.
Strategy: Trade within the range, using identified support and resistance levels.
4. Advice for Investors and Traders
📊 Risk management: Always set appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels to protect your capital. Post-FOMC volatility can be intense, so prepare mentally and have a solid trading plan.
📰 Stay updated: Keep a close eye on Fed updates and market reactions. Jerome Powell’s speech could create significant trading opportunities.
🛠️ Use technical tools: Combine indicators like RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci to identify precise entry points.
5. Conclusion
Tonight’s FOMC meeting will be a decisive factor for the DXY’s short-term direction. With clear support and resistance levels identified, traders should prepare their strategies to capitalize on market movements.
🚨 Stay tuned for the latest updates on TradingView to ensure you don’t miss any trading opportunities!
Wishing you successful trades and profitable outcomes! 💪💰
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Technical Levels & Market OutlookU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Monthly Chart Analysis 📊💵
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently navigating a critical price structure, with key supply and demand zones influencing market direction. Here’s a professional breakdown of the chart’s technical outlook:
📍 Key Technical Insights
✅ Supply & Demand Zones
Supply Zone (Resistance): 109 - 114 📈 – A key area where selling pressure has historically emerged. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further upside potential.
Demand Zone (Support): 100 - 103 📉 – A strong accumulation zone where buyers have stepped in previously. A breakdown below could indicate a shift in market sentiment.
✅ Market Structure & Momentum
A Break of Structure (BOSS) has been identified, signaling a shift in trend dynamics.
The market is currently ranging between major resistance (~109) and support (~100).
✅ 200-Month Moving Average 📊
The long-term moving average (red line) is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish bias unless decisively breached.
📊 Potential Scenarios
🔹 Bullish Outlook: If DXY maintains support above 100-103 and breaks past 109, the index could aim for 114+ in the coming months. 🚀
🔹 Bearish Risk: A sustained drop below 100 may open the door for further downside towards 95-89, signaling a broader correction. ⚠️
📌 Conclusion
The DXY remains in a consolidation phase, with key inflection points around 103 (support) and 109 (resistance). A breakout or breakdown from this range will determine the next major trend. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
DOLLAR INDEX - WILL IT BREAK DOWN OR CLIMB HIGHER?Symbol - DXY
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading within a key support zone, which has historically acted as a pivotal level for price action. A clear double top pattern has emerged on the larger time frame, signaling a potential bearish reversal. A breakdown below this support area would likely signify a shift in the short-term trend of the U.S. Dollar, with the potential for a move lower.
Despite this, there remains an underlying expectation in the global markets that the U.S. Dollar will stay elevated in the medium term due to factors such as President Trump’s policies, tariffs, and rising geopolitical fragmentation. However, much of this has already been priced into the currency, and the current price action is showing signs of weakness, suggesting that the Dollar may be poised for a pullback.
From a technical perspective, a decisive breakdown below the support zone would imply a trend change, with further downside potential. Traders and investors may need to reassess their outlook for the U.S. Dollar if this level is breached.
Key support levels: 107.60, 107.40
Key resistance levels: 108.35, 108.50
On the other hand, if the price holds above the support area and key upcoming data, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), continue to support the Dollar’s strength, there is potential for the index to continue its upward trajectory. In this alternate scenario, the previous bullish trend for the U.S. Dollar could resume, especially if these data points align with expectations and signal ongoing economic strength. Therefore, the outlook for the U.S. Dollar remains contingent on the price action at the current support level and upcoming economic data releases.
DXY Bullish Breakout – USD Strengthening Towards 120+?📊 DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Monthly Chart Analysis 🚀
📈 Breakout in Progress:
The chart shows a breakout from a horizontal resistance zone (previous highs). This signals bullish momentum.
📊 Trend & Structure:
Higher Lows & Higher Highs indicate an uptrend.
Price has been moving within an ascending channel for years.
📉 EMA 200 Support:
The 200-month EMA (95.63) is well below the current price, acting as a strong long-term support level.
🔮 Future Projection:
A potential pullback to confirm support, followed by a strong bullish move toward 120-125 levels.
Chart Projection Suggests: 🚀 Upside continuation if support holds.
🔥 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support: 104-108 (Breakout retest zone)
🎯 Target: 116-124 (Upper trendline)
💡 Conclusion: Bullish bias remains strong. If DXY holds above 108, the dollar could gain more strength in 2025. 🚀📊
USDCHF - CONTINUATION OF BULLISH TREND?Symbol - USDCHF
The USDCHF pair is currently entering the realization phase following an extended period of correction. A favorable environment has been established by the ongoing uptrend and the strengthening of the dollar. The technical outlook on the daily timeframe is positive. After breaking through trend resistance, the price retested the previously breached level. Following a false breakout, the pair successfully consolidated above this key point, establishing an interim low and signaling potential for further gains.
From a technical perspective, attention is now focused on the resistance level at 0.9110. Should the bulls manage to surpass this zone and establish a sustained break above it, the pair could potentially rise toward 0.9180–0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9110
Support levels: 0.9050
Prior to breaking through the resistance, the currency pair may test the support level at 0.9050, driven by liquidity beneath this area. However, a decisive move above 0.9110 could serve as the catalyst for further upward momentum.
Possible Wave Counts on Daily Time Frame Chart of DXYMost investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
In this study we used Elliott Wave Theory & Structures, here we have plotted possible wave counts on daily time frame chart of DXY Dollar Index, it involves multiple possibilities, and the analysis presented focuses on one potential scenario. The provided information is for educational purposes only, not trading advice. There's a risk of being completely wrong.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
TRADE IDEA ON SHORT SIDE - US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)Symbol - DXY
DXY is currently trading at 109.16
My reversal setup has formed in DXY & I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side.
Shorting DXY at CMP 109.16
I will add more position if 109.65 comes & will hold with SL 110.05
Targets I'm expecting are 108.00 - 107.30 & below.
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
USDCHF - TRADE ON SHORT SIDESymbol - USDCHF
USDCHF is currently trading at 0.9118
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side.
Shorting USDCHF pair at CMP 0.9118
I will add more quantity at 0.9165, If comes. Holding with SL 0.9210
Targets I'm expecting are 0.9010 - 0.8945 & 0.8880
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
GBPUSD LONG - TRADE IDEA FOR HUGE PROFITSymbol - GBPUSD
GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.2310
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on buy side.
Buying GBPUSD pair at CMP 1.2310
I will be adding more if 1.2270 comes & will hold with SL 1.2240
Targets I'm expecting are 1.2430 - 1.270 & above
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
Bearish Divergence on DXY , What’s Next?The DXY appears primed for a significant drop. On the daily timeframe, a clear bearish divergence has formed, suggesting potential downside movement. Key support levels should be monitored, particularly in relation to the RSI. If the RSI holds around the 50 level, we could see a potential bounce; however, a continued drop into the oversold zone is also possible. The DXY's movement may also be influenced by the FOMC minutes release on January 9th, adding another layer of significance to these levels.
Bearish Divergence on DXY , What’s Next?The DXY appears primed for a significant drop. On the daily timeframe, a clear bearish divergence has formed, suggesting potential downside movement. Key support levels should be monitored, particularly in relation to the RSI. If the RSI holds around the 50 level, we could see a potential bounce; however, a continued drop into the oversold zone is also possible. The DXY's movement may also be influenced by the FOMC minutes release on January 9th, adding another layer of significance to these levels.
DXY $ since 1972, FED Pivots and What now for ALTS coins ?DXY $ since 1972 and Rate Cuts
When the FED cuts rates, the $ Drops in value most of the time as can be seen here on the chart below
( I have not "Boxed" the current FED Rate cuts to make it easier to see the PA )
This time it has continued to Rise for a number of reasons.
In Fact, ever since that Banking "Accident" in 2008, the DXY has gained in value, on average, but thats another story.
FED has said that Cuts may not occur in 2025. This Could once again make the $ a more attractive buy if other markets are falling. Then the $ could Stop being propped up !
Normally, as $ rises, Crypto struggles - again, we have seen BTC rise at the same time as the $ since July this year.
It is ALTS that have struggled and this may very well continue.
Normally, we wait for BTC/D to drop and then the Money flows into ALTS.. but if the money remains in Bitcoin, the ALT market requires an alternative source of income.
Could we see the DXY $ loose that money ?
But the pause in Rate Cuts may stop that
That War in Finance continues.
TradFi Lost round 1 and now Bitcoin is accepted, used, alllowed and is King. This is why the $ Will remain in Bitcoin, ETF's etc. We may see outflows every now and then but certainly Not the amount that drives the ALT market normally.
Will we even see a bear market again ?
ALTS however, they are the Minions that may yet suffer
The War continues and DeFi, for example, needs to step up and REALLY make it self a Lot more user friendly, attractive and bigger gains in use, stake cases.
2025 is going to be very interesting and Volatile
Don't Get Burnt. Be Cautious, the gains could be huge....as could the losses
USDCAD - SWING TRADE IDEA ON SHORT SIDESymbol - USDCAD
USDCAD is currently trading at 1.4325
I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side.
Shorting USDCAD pair at CMP 1.4325
I will add more quantity at 1.4350 & 1.4380, If comes. Holding with SL 1.4420
Targets I'm expecting are 1.4250 - 1.4200 & 1.4155
Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
DXY Bearish Setup Update - DXY is currently trading at 105.7 and it exactly got rejected from my POI
- DXY looks all set to mitigate 103.8, bringing more upside to all pairs denominated by USD, risky assets like Crypto, and Stocks.
- Watch out for 103.8 and 101.9 to expect another leg up from
- We have a market structure shift from 103.3 if we flip below that on a weekly TF, we might soon see DXY turning bearish.
- DXY can soon show impulsive moves on Monday post bullish commentaries
Gold : The fundamental context and goals have both changedOANDA:XAUUSD The breakout of the local downtrend channel has disadvantaged sellers. The fundamental background is changing, despite continued USD buying and the prevailing risk-off environment, which overall favors gold as a safe-haven asset during times of crisis.
The stronger USD, supported by the ongoing "Trump trade" rally, and US bond yields have rebounded across various maturities.
Despite the optimism around the USD, gold prices remain resilient and benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Therefore, gold prices are likely to continue their growth in the near term before today’s scheduled news (PMI)... However! Since this is pre-news before session closing, reactions may consolidate for sellers before further strengthening.
Technically, gold has every opportunity to retest the boundaries of the previously broken channel. However, based on fundamental news and technical factors, we can conclude that further growth may continue.
Prices are heading toward a liquidity zone, from which a correction may occur, followed by expected further strengthening in the near term. But in any case, I prioritize and consider buying upon a clear breakout of gold at 2686 - 2700, targeting the medium-term highs as outlined on the chart.
DXY PARABOLIC SETUP Update- DXY is currently trading at 107.4
- DXY has made a lot of USD-denominated pairs bleed and they are still getting slaughtered
- DXY is currently at a point where there's a lot of limit sell stops above the buy side liquidity
- Once the orders are consumed we might see another round of Impulse up to the marked displacement of 110-111$
- DXY pumping along with the Equity market, Crypto isn't a good sign there's a negative smart money divergence laying that's trapping and sucking liquidity from retail suckers.
- Sit at the sidelines and keep locking in gains until you see DXY flipping its structure to bearish
- Retail pattern traders might get flushed when they call this a double bottom.
Dollar Looks Vulnerable : Here’s My Take on What’s Coming Next!Price has recently taken out an Old High and has now reached an Imbalanced price range, which is more evident on the Weekly Timeframe.
This move has presented buyside liquidity for sellers by taking out the Old High and simultaneously offered fair value by entering into an imbalanced price range (FVG / SIBI - 1W Timeframe).
From here, price may now head lower towards the Draw on Liquidity, with Sellside Liquidity as the next objective, as shown in the chart.
This is how I see it, though I’d advise you to do your own analysis.
Gold-> Buyer Back Yet?After suffering significant losses last week, gold has regained its recovery momentum and is trading positively above $2,600 on Monday. The fundamental backdrop supports this recovery. Key resistance levels at $2,518 and $2,628 now divide the market into two distinct zones.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting moves from several Fed officials this week to gain further insights into the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
The most likely scenario at the moment is a slight recovery in gold prices following the recent steep sell-off, with expectations for gold to climb higher after several reversals in the USD.
In the medium term, bulls need to reassess U.S. policy planning in December, as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in January. This has not been fully priced into the market, so any adjustments could pose challenges for gold.
Technically, since the market opened, prices have climbed considerably, increasing the likelihood of resistance capping further upward movement. A false breakout at $2,589 and subsequent consolidation below this zone would strengthen selling pressure. However, there is potential for a retest of $2,618 (Order Block).
Similarly, a failed breakout could trigger selling momentum. But if the fundamentals align strongly in favor of gold, the market may have a chance to shift the local trend from the $2,618 zone.
GBPUSDFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets.
A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market.
On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term.
Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269
Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231
The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.