Crude Oil AnalysisHello Friends, Hope you find doing well.
As there are so up down in market now a days because of many reasons
Elections, war, Global data, USDINR, DXY.
So based on following all parameter i am trying to analysis crude oil price action, hope it helpful for all commodities trader.
As we can see in chart it is making bullish flag pattern on 4hr timeframe. So we will se break out up side and we can make better position according. It may trigger by global data or by war declare.
Plan your trade according your analysis. I do not recommended to do as i said. I just analysis chart pattern and data which make positive price action.
Best of luck
Regards.
J-DXY
Wondering where the Dollar is headed next? He're is a hint. Analysis
A five wave decline from 107.34, the high on Oct 03, 2023 to 100.62, the low on Dec 28, 2023.
In Elliott terms, this impulse structure tells us that the movement at the next larger degree of trend is also downwards. Within this impulsive structure, wave (i) is a Leading Diagonal, wave (ii) is a Flat which neatly predicts a Zigzag wave (iv) by guideline of Alternation. Both waves (iii) and (v) are extensions. The impulsive decline holds well within the parallel trend channel as is often expected.
A five wave move is always followed by a three wave corrective pullback or variation thereof, irregardless of degree; in this case, a rally wave ((ii)).
To where? The Elliott wave guideline on the depth of corrective waves suggests that price action should ideally end within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Second, the ensuing correction, wave (ii) is unfolding as a sharp Double Zigzag correction labelled (w)-(x)-(y) with waves (w) and (x) completed, wave (y) in progress.
In ratio relationships, sharp corrections tend more frequently to retrace 61.8% of the previous wave particularly when they occur as wave (ii) of an Impulse or wave (b) in a larger Zigzag.
Also, the actionary waves in a Double Zigzag correction namely waves (w) and (y) are often related by equality or Fibonacci (0.618) in time or amplitude.
wave (y) = 0.618 X (w) at 104.87; this level falls neatly within the previous guidelines.
Thus, the cluster of evidence suggest the rally is nearing its end and a reversal is onset; a third wave.
Trade Plan
1) Conservative Approach
Entry: Short at 104.879; the 0.618 retracement.
Protective Stop: 107.34; in an Impulse wave (ii) CAN NEVER retrace more than 100% of wave (i).
Target: 10.87 decline; in an impulse the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the loss of
the first, as in:
wave ((i)) = -6.72 (100.62-107.34),
wave ((iii))= 1.618 X (-6.72) equals (-10.87)
Risk-Reward: 1:3
2) Aggressive Approach
Requires price action to break below a recent swing low; wave b of a Zigzag, that will virtually suggest the rally has ended and a reversal was underway.
Entry: Break below 103.89
Protective Stop: Recent swing high
Targets: Below 100.62
Risk-Reward: Greater than 1:3
NOTE: Stay tuned to get follow-up adjustments to stops as we monitor the move through completion.
BECAREFULL WITH GOLDMarket still round 2193 to 2203
Wait today...today Unemployment and Final GDP NEWS
If market cross & CLOSE ABOVE 2222 next zone will me 2238-2300
If market cross & CLOSE BELOW 2145 it will be RED ROSE...
then NEXT buy zones will be
2038-2025
1995-1973
1948-1931
1829-1811
Checking in day candle body doesn't close above DAY BOS in line chart seems M PATTERN ...
SO 60%SELL AND 40% BUYING
Sell Flip Zone 2203-2209
EURUSD,GBPUSD,NZDUSD,AUDUSD starts falls
so GOLD also will FALL soon...
Low equity members avoid trade today...
Use small lot max 0.01- 0.03 and 6-7 orders
SELL @
1st sell zone
2198-2200
2nd sell zone
2203-2207
Sl 2213
Tp 2193
Tp 2186
Tp 2176
Tp 2160
Tp 2148
Tp 2038
Tp 1950
Tp 1840
Buy stop @2212.8
x2lot size of sell total order
Tp 2221
Tp 2238
Tp 2270
Tp 2300
or avoid trade today
NOTES: EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE
DXY next week overview - !06.500 or !03.800 ???the upcoming week ahead bring alot of volatility have days with events and major ones
Recap -
the previous week was more based on sharp turns that has tested important level and broken important level
but left behind some imbalance that given a strong sign or outperformance by DXY
What to Expect - 104.300 the price breakout now the upside potential liquidity would be 105
and there after we have higher time frame (M, W) bearish order block
but the price with big bars has left behind some fair value area
which might holding some good liquidity to fuel if the price expect the upside momentum
Key Area -
keep eye on 103.700 > 103.400 > 102.850
conclusion try to buy with limit order on key area rather than going short
GOLD IN BUYGOLD/USD March FINAL WEEK PLAN...
In GOLD-USD Friday (22-03-2024) Market reaches our 2nd sell target of 2160...
Which is buy correction zone(BUY FLIP ZONE)...
EXTREM BUY ZONE IS still there 2152-2146
I am looking for buy because of below mentioned points:
1.Before reaching 2160 market forms buy liquidity(BUYING PATTERN) in FAIR GAP Area
2.In 30M Awesome Oscillator indicates upside distribution even market comes down...
3.In 15M-50% Buy confirmation we got...
4.In DAY TF i am expecting 2258-2300 is 1st Pull back zone(only my opinion not confirms yet)
Here we got 3 entry zones with 3 different entry method...
1.Intraday Setup-- use 1% RISK of your capital in every entry
we have 3 intraday setup
(_a_).15M Gives only 50% confirmation for BUY REWARD---1:20 Ratio
BUY limit @2160
SL 2156
TP 2185
TP 2206
TP 2211
(_b_).5M mid range entry(if confirms get we will updates here then entry this)BUY
REWARD--1:22 Ratio
BUY limit @2153
SL 2149.4
TP 2185
TP 2206
TP 2211
(_c_).30M Extreme entry zone previous BUY LIQUIDITY zone...
Also PULL BACK AREA...In 2146 is trend line passing point...
you can place order without confirmation... REWARD--1:24 Ratio
BUY limit @2149
SL 2144
TP 2185
TP 2206
TP 2211
2.Mid Risk Setup-- use 4to5% RISK of your capital.... REWARD--1:8-1:10 Ratio
USE 2 Layers 5 Orders Strategy
BUY LIMIT @2153-2149
SL 2144
TP 2185
TP 2206
TP 2221
Once Market HIT 2149...SET 2153 as a Target BE(close @entry)
3.Swing setup-- Need higher capital.... REWARD--1:7-1:8-1:10 Ratio
USE 3 Layers 5 Orders Strategy
BUY LIMIT @2160-2153-2149
SL 2144
TP 2185
TP 2206
TP 2221
TP 2270
Once Market HIT 2149...SET 2160 as a Target BE(close @entry)
IF MARKET TREND CHANGE... OVER ALL SELL STOP 2143..use x2 lot size which total lot size you use in above buy limit orders ( Targets & SL will updates later)
or
Don't use sell stop wait for next recovery update...
All The Best...
NOTES:EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY
DXY might go down by 3% to 5% After the highs of 107+ price , since price went bearish that has created a monthly bearish FVG that is marked in orange , price after reaching 101 lvl mitigated the open Bullish FVG on higher time frame, which leads to price bouncing back towards the zone of Bearish FVG
currently price is getting rejected and due to higher time frame giving the bearish bias
with run away gap from monthly bearish FVG
DXY need to go down sweep some liquidity and mitigate the 98 lvl which bullish open fvg
Gold breakout and followed history pattern.As we have talked in past post
#DXY is high and after CPI result it has break up side.
same for #USDINR #US10Y
Till it has chance to more fall and here i have added some supports in this post.
you can find your levels and analysis then take trades.
More to indian market has looks fall to come soon as it making pattern like that but all game of news and data which can changed anytime.
Best of luck. Have a great day.
DXY #Dollarindex Trade Setup DXY/Dollar Index is currently trading near an overhead supply
- It will be very crucial to watch how it exactly reacts to its overhead supply
- IMO even if we see a good reaction from the overhead supply it will be still important to watch the reaction.
- From a long perspective it's better to wait out and first let the breakout happen - let the base form - let it take some grabs and then scout for longs
#dollarindex #dxy
dxy analysisTrade Idea:
📍 Entry: 🎯 Target: ⛔ Stop Loss: (MARKED IN CHART)
💡 RISK REWARD 1 : 3 ,5 ,10
💰 Risk 1% of your trading capital.
⚠️ Markets can be unpredictable; research before trading.Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Elliott Wave analysis and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.Informational onLY !!!!
EUR/USD Trade Setup - The Euro still looks bullish when compared to the USD
- The USD has shown some huge downside, now we can expect some relief and bounce back
- The Euro still shows signs of bearishness IMO.
- The Euro can rip your longs if you are looking for one, prefer setting up long-only bias once the base is set and the trend in intact.
Inverse 🥶If Dxy sustain on 103 ( marked in the chart) then a upside momentum to (110 feb 2024)--(115 sep 2024) is possible, which could impact the US stock market and in some cases Indian market too .
Disclaimer :
It's a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.






















