Jindal Steel (W): Cautiously Bullish (Breakout Rejection)(Timeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic)
The stock attempted a major breakout from its 2-year consolidation but faced a classic "Shooting Star" / Rejection at the All-Time High. While the trend is up, the inability to close above ₹1,085 signals that the "Smart Money" is booking profits ahead of the Jan 30 earnings.
🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The price action is dominated by the upcoming event:
> Q3 Earnings (Jan 30): With results just a week away, investors are risk-averse. The stock needs a "Earnings Beat" to justify a price above ₹1,100.
> Sector Strength: The Nifty Metal Index is strong (up ~7% this month), which is why the stock is hugging the resistance rather than crashing.
📈 2. The Chart Structure (The Trap)
> The Box: ₹750 – ₹1,085 consolidation range. This "Time Correction" has been healthy.
> The Fakeout (This Week):
- The Move: The stock spiked to ₹1,104 (New High) but was hammered down to close below ₹1,085 .
- Interpretation: This leaves a long "Upper Wick" on the weekly candle, indicating that bears are still defending this fortress. A "Look Above and Fail" often leads to a short-term pullback.
📊 3. Volume & Indicators
> Volume: The "Above Average" volume on a rejection candle is a warning. It implies that while buyers tried to push up, sellers unloaded heavy quantities (Churning).
> RSI: Rising but showing a potential Negative Divergence on daily frames if price makes a high but RSI doesn't.
🎯 4. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The trade is now an "Event Play."
🐂 Bullish Breakout (Post-Earnings):
- Trigger: A decisive Weekly Close above ₹1,105 (clearing the new wick).
- Target 1: ₹1,235.
- Target 2: ₹1,350.
🛡️ Support (The "Buy Zone"):
- Immediate Support: ₹980 – ₹1,000 .
- Strategy: If the stock dips to ₹980 before Jan 30, it is a low-risk entry.
- Stop Loss: A close below ₹950 invalidates the bullish structure.
Conclusion
This is a "Wait for Confirmation" Setup .
> Refinement: Do not buy the "intraday breakout." Wait for a Closing Basis breakout above ₹1,105.
> Action: Keep it on the watchlist. The real move will likely happen after Jan 30 results.
