Get started

KOTAKBANK

EFT BASED INVESTINGHello Readers! As of EOD 01-10-2021, the indices ended in a good amount of Red and there is some sort of pessimism set in from the posts, messages that I have been reading and watching. People have started calling for downward levels citing DXY and global issues and whatnot. As a trader/investor, I feel that the greater the pessimism and such pessimism is confirmed by a downward price move, the better it is. The reason is very simple - We are not in a sorry state as we were in March-April 2020. So any dip may only be seen as a buying opportunity as indices eventually would go up. The problem occurs when one is trading in derivates where MTM losses have to be settled with the exchange via the broker and that is where the pain comes. However, if one buys quality scrips during such dips, those would go up if not in line with the markets at least in line with the sectoral trend. But again, which stock to pick may be an issue as either these are already hanging in the air or are nowhere near fundamental/technical levels to initiate a buy. So I thought of doing a check on the NIFTY as well as BANK NIFTY ETFs - where I already have some holdings invested at lower levels. I was quite pleased with what I ended up working out and therefore, thought of sharing the same with you folks. In fact, just before recording this video, I was talking to a friend and I explained to him what I have explained in the video and he was quite interested in placing the order next week. Now, I am not a SEBI regd analyst / advisor, but my view is medium to long term as eventually, over a period of time indices tend to achieve higher highs and that is why I thought of this approach to investing. Please let me know what do you think about it. Based on where NIFTY trades on 4-10-21, I may invest part of my funds into both the approaches that I have shared in the video. Happy Learniing, Investing & Money Making! Umesh 2-10-21
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices in panic mode - A notorious Shake Out of Weak Bulls?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -28-09-21 IN SUMMARY O- 17,906.45 H -17,912.85 L- 17,576.10 C- 17,748.60 Close = -106.5 / -0.60% H-L = 337 points VIX 18.54 / +2.71% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative by 1000 Crores. SGX NIFTY @1940h - 17730 / -14 points Likely open: Flat to mild nrgative. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A mild gap-up opening went sideways for a while and then began sell-off so severe that NIFTY broke 17600 levels as well and at one point appeared that even 17600 may be hard to sustain. But then came a strong bounce back, however, NIFTY is still more than 100 points away from the P Close and below 17750. NIFTY has thus made lower highs and much lower low which is not a good sign. 17600 is no longer a safe level to bank upon. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS RELIANCE 15.00 BAJAJ FINANCE 26.00 IOC 7.00 INFOSYS 23.00 TITAN 6.00 ICICI BANK 15.00 KOTAK BANK 6.00 BAJAJ FINSERV 13.00 JSW STEEL 5.00 TCS 11.00 39.00 88.00 Lifter - Draggers = -49 POSITIVES NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both witnessed a strong bounce back from their day lows. RELIANCE and KOTAK BANK withstood the intense selling pressure and ended in the green and were mainly responsible for the fast-paced recovery in the indices. NEGATIVES NIFTY broke 17600 levels on intraday basis. 17920 also appears to be a level to reckon with. BANK NIFTY gave up higher levels very easily and also ended below 38000. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: As mentioned in yesterday’s post, the range mentioned here proved to be the one that was respected as far as the Support levels are concerned. NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS The intense sell-off was caused by the spike in VIX over the last few sessions even as the indices were making new highs. Usually, VIX should turn negative near or around ATH but in our case, it has risen 40%+ from the lower levels. This is not a good sign. A wild swing was expected this week and that is exactly what happened today. Pre-Covid, Expiry Tuesdays used to be highly choppy and volatile, today was one such Tuesday. BANK NIFTY High to Low was 1082 points! This is what caused the panic all around. KOTAK BANK and RELIANCE stood rock solid and yet again proved that they have the tendency to not to follow the market and behave in their own manner. It may be a good idea to always have a position in these two scrips as these seem to be hedging devices against wild swings in the indices. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 28-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
DIIs spoil the party, Drag NIFTY from around 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -17-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17709.65 / 17792.95 / 17537.65 / 17585.15 H-L = 255 points VIX 15.23 / +5.69% FII DII: +130 Crores Likely open: Flat to negative. This is based on the SGX NIFTY and as the US markets close was in negative. A bounce-back is more likely as FIIs have bought in good numbers. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A good gap up with a retest of the opening lows was then bought in to and NIFTY almost touched 17800 but there was immediate and sharp sell-off from 1030 that led to NIFTY falling 225+ points from the day high. After the first sell-off, it turned rangebound, but then as the market close was nearing, there was another sell-off which meant NIFTY ended below 17600. It was indeed surprising that the level was given away so quickly. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters KOTAK BANK 17 HDFC BANK 17 HDFC 04 BAJAJ FINSERV 03 BHARTI AIRTEL 02 TOTAL 43 The Draggers RELIANCE 22 TCS 13 ICICI BANK 08 TATA STEEL 08 INFOSYS 07 TOTAL 58 Lifter - Draggers = -15 POSITIVES NIFTY went very close to 17800 but failed to clear the line. BANK NIFTY made a high above 38100. KOTAK BANK & HDFC BANK outperformed all the other leaders. HDFC appears to have found some support around 2800. FIIs have bought in large numbers. NEGATIVES INFOSYS is suffering from 1700+ Syndrome as it is unable to hold on to the level for more than a day at a time. RELIANCE was doing good but late afternoon sell-off brought it below 2400 yet again. VIX has gone up to 15+ after quite a few weeks. DIIs have sold heavily. TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 20-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For now, 17800 may well prove to be a major resistance as the fall from just below that level was sharp and severe. BANK NIFTY support lines are 37200-400 and resistances at 38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS NIFTY was clearly hijacked by RELIANCE, TCS & INFOSYS. There was extreme volatility and fast movement in NIFTY making it a hard day for the traders. HDFC BANK retested 1560 levels and then shot up more than 1% to close above 1580 and this along with KOTAK BANK closing above 2000 saved the day for BANK NIFTY as it ended in the green and in the process, helped NIFTY from sinking further. Clearly, BANK NIFTY is now looking stronger than NIFTY and may well hold the key to NIFTY holding higher levels. RELIANCE ended the day 65 points lower than the day high which is more than 2% and that is what spooked NIFTY. SGX NIFTY is showing a gap down of almost 100 points but this is not entirely reliable as we have seen in the past. Since FIIs have bought in large numbers, a gap-down is more likely to be bought into unless there is something else that happens between 19-9 evening and the market open. Social Media is very quick to signal that the top was made on Friday and now NIFTY is heading down. When August was in good green, it was said that September would be a washout and now when NIFTY kept scaling ATH after ATH in Sep, a fall of 44 points is being called out as end of the road. The fact is no one really knows and there is no point doing guesswork as in a matter of 23 hours, the day would have ended and clarity would have emerged. The best approach would be to keep all news and views aside and react to the price action by sticking to the right process that has given you success in the past. That is what matters in the end. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 19-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
#kotakmahindrabank:flag pattern&channel breakoutmomentum and trend indicator now showing that all timeframes are bullish stock had earlier broken out of resistance zone back in nov 20 but had retraced back to take support at previous resistance and then bounced from change in polarity aug 2021. Monthly weekly had been retracing in a trendline channel forming a flag pattern which broke out further up last week. There is likely for further up-move and an entry above current candle high with stop loss close below neckline on resistance zone could work out.
NSE:KOTAKBANKLong
by seekedgetrade
Divergence on KotakBank , A personal learning. Hello, Kotak bank shows a divergence (RSI) on 15 minute chart, However instead of exiting our long position we can hold the stock till it breaks down the trendline. A recent example, that I personally encountered : On 20th August - 24th August we could see a divergence on the Hourly chart of Hindustan Unilever, snapshot of which can be seen in the comments after moderation. So, instead of exiting our position on observing a divergence on RSI - we could eliminate a false signal by holding till the rally respects the trendline. In this case, a 7% additional rally. Do let me know your thoughts, Thank you.
NSE:KOTAKBANKEducation
by manoharpk
4