XAUUSD — Breakout Pressure BuildsGold remains volatile after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a divided 9–3 decision, with three members preferring a 25-basis-point hike. This split reinforces uncertainty around the next policy move and keeps XAUUSD sensitive to Treasury yields and the US dollar.
Attention now shifts to today’s US Q2 GDP advance estimate and June Personal Income and Outlays, including PCE inflation, both scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. These releases could determine whether the latest gold recovery develops into a broader expansion or faces renewed pressure.
Technical View
On the H1 chart, XAUUSD has recovered strongly from the 4,000 area and is now forming higher lows above a rising intraday trendline.
Price has reclaimed both the EMA 34 and EMA 89, while the faster average is beginning to turn higher. This suggests improving short-term momentum, although the broader descending trendline near 4,105–4,115 remains the decisive resistance.
RSI is holding near 58, above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory. Buyers therefore retain momentum, but confirmation above the descending trendline is still required.
The MACD panel is not visible, so no crossover can be confirmed. A bullish crossover or expanding positive histogram would strengthen the breakout scenario.
Important Key Levels
Immediate support: 4,040–4,052
Deeper demand: 4,015–4,025
Trendline resistance: 4,105–4,115
First upside zone: 4,112–4,120
Higher resistance: 4,158–4,168
Trading Scenario
My primary view remains bullish while XAUUSD holds above the rising trendline and the 4,040–4,052 support zone.
A controlled retracement into this confluence, followed by bullish rejection and RSI holding above 50, could support another attempt toward 4,105–4,115.
Sustained H1 acceptance above the descending trendline, ideally accompanied by bullish MACD confirmation, may open the way toward 4,158–4,168.
Buy/Sell Condition
Bullish condition: Price defends 4,040–4,052 and confirms an H1 breakout above 4,115.
Bearish condition: Sustained acceptance below 4,040 would weaken the immediate structure and expose the deeper demand around 4,015–4,025.
Overall View
The EMA recovery, rising trendline and RSI above 50 currently support buyers, but XAUUSD is still trading beneath a major descending resistance line.
With GDP and PCE approaching, I prefer to wait for confirmed acceptance rather than anticipate the initial volatility.
Do you expect XAUUSD to retest 4,050 before breaking higher, or move directly toward 4,115?
Long