My Nifty Overview //Nifty Trend Analysis //ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISLook at the bigger picture.
It might be a 5-3-5 corrective pattern(ABC) or 3-3-3 corrective pattern (WXY).
If Nifty crosses 17135 recent swing high then it will be a buying opportunity in intraday basis. Targets of 17330
If Nifty crosses 16997 recent swing low then it will be a selling opportunity in intraday basis. Targets of 16800
Please do not take a trade just after the breakout wait for the price to reach its demand zone (for upside) to go long &
wait for the price to reach its supply zone (for downside) to go short.
This will ensure stop loss will be less and reward will be more.
Long-short
Visualising victory for Ukraine and oil pricesBack in February, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a victory for Kyiv would have been almost impossible to imagine. It's the classic David and Goliath. Recent developments on the battlefront, however, are starting to paint a different picture, showing the possibility of Ukraine ending the conflict with a win.
On paper, the war is just between Ukraine and Russia. Its implications, on the other hand, knew no bounds and it demanded to be felt across the globe bringing about economic uncertainties and causing supply chain disruptions. While it did not start the energy crisis, the invasion surely made the situation worse.
Nearly seven months into the war, people are hoping it will be over soon. Along with these hopes is the dream that the underdog (and innocent party) will claim the victory.
Win for Ukraine
Earlier in September, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture swaths of lands in the country's northeast that a few months earlier have been taken over by Russia. Considering this and the possibility that China's tacit support for Russia could be waning, it seems like momentum is on the side of Ukraine.
If that indeed happens, it could mean good things not just for Ukraine but probably for the rest of Europe. Orysia Lutsevych, in an opinion piece for The Guardian, wrote that a victory for Ukraine is vital for Europe to be able to live in peace and work collectively to meet global challenges. Considering the support that a majority of the remainder of Europe and countries in other parts of the world have thrown behind Ukraine, defeat would further entice Russia to flout international law and the sovereignty of other nations.
"The restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and, ultimately, peace will mean the collapse of Putinism as a doctrine and an end to Russian claims to territorial dominance elsewhere in eastern Europe and Central Asia," Lutsevych added.
On the other hand, a victory for Russia would validate the country's aggressiveness and fuel its desire to further expand its territory. Russia uses newly conquered territories to stage further conflicts and a Ukraine victory would prevent that from happening. Aside from preventing future wars, a victory for Ukraine is also expected to reduce the risk of a mass famine and even restore the stability of economies that have been affected by the sanctions imposed on Russia for instigating the conflict.
What happens to oil when Ukraine wins the war?
When the war started, the price of oil surged past the $130 per barrel mark for the first time since 2008. The Brent benchmark neared the record high of $147 in March exacerbated by the conflict.
Almost seven months into the war, the prices of oil somehow stabilized and is now at ~$90 per barrel for Brent crude as concerns about weaker economic growth and demand drag prices down.
European countries have also been forced to impose price caps on electricity and oil and come up with new taxes for energy companies in order to support their people amid the ongoing energy crisis in the region. Many countries have also started finding alternative energy sources to compensate for the supply cut off from Russia.
Russia has been using the energy crisis as another ploy in its grand battle scheme. Earlier in September, Vladimir Putin said: "We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests. No gas, no oil , no coal, no fuel oil , nothing."
The potential impacts to the energy market of a Ukraine victory would depend on how Russia will take its defeat. Will it be a gracious loser and choose to capitalize on rebuilding bridges with countries that have been beneficiaries of its supply or a petty loser that will continue to lock in supply for it to use and to sell to select buyers who are probably allies and supporters?
MAXHEALTH : Convergence within 2%MAXHEALTH: On consolidation from past few days & currently 20/50/100/150/200 SMAS are within 2% of current close.
Add to watchlist and wait for breakout.
2022-07-15: SMA 20/50/100/ 150/200 In 2%. Stock is in Squeeze for past 3 days. Candle pattern: Dark Cloud Cover. close is above SMA 20 on D/W/M time frame. The monthly trend is +ve & Weekly trend Changed to +ve. On Weekly time frame, SMA13>SMA34>SMA 55 & Close crossed W SMA13 Upside
2022-07-19: SMA 50 crossed SMA 100. Close Cross WK & M-Pivots Upside. SMA 13 Crossed SMA 55 on a Daily time frame
2022-07-20: Cross Monthly Piv downside and candlestick formation: Dark Cloud Cover. Close Crossed W SMA 13 Downside
2022-07-29: Again SMA 50 crossed SMA 100 -Downside, Crossed Monthly Piv upsde M trend +ve & W trend Change to +ve. Again Close crossed D13, W13 Upside
Momentum is low, still in squeeze, and all SMA's are within 2% (Convergence).
Add to watchlist and wait for a breakout.
SGX Nifty possibilities of long and short trades.This is an Idea of SGX Nifty probabilities on a Long note.
Fibo retracment :
Lets start with basi Fibo retracement, from point A to B , which is already at 38.2%, now we all know if this is going to be a strong bull trend there will be a possible reversal at this level or
a possible reversal will be at 50% which comes around 17238 - 16938 .. it doesnt have to be 50% it may even take a reversal at 61.8% as well.
Pitchfork :
A valid Pitchfork has been broken and trigger line has been rejected (Normal terms we call it trendline)
2 possibilities here: One, this could be a retest of the broken pitfork line which is absolutely at fibo 50% which can only be known once it reaches that area of horizontal support
Two, this could be a downtrend after getting rejected by the trendline at point B.
H&S Pattern :
There is an Head and shoulder pattern in formation which could take support at Fibo 50% and revert back to the trendline, if this happens and a breakout of trendline is seen, target is mentioned on chart.
lets say H&S is not formed, trendline or pitchfork parallol line still acts as a strong resistance, or breaks pitchfork and rejects at trendline, that is going to be a 3rd time rejection of this trendline,
we might see a stong move downside once again. which i called alternate possibility.
confusing GMTwe can see a nice beautiful bullish flag on chart
which indicates a nice bullish sign but at a same time it is forming a descending triangle
we have to wait and see in which direction the market if it breakout down than we can see a down rally till support red line
if it breakout upwards the price can even hits it all time high
Bank Nifty - Harmonic PatternBank nifty had broken all the previous supports today and is expected to continue its down trend. As bank nifty is overly sold, a pull back rally can be expected before it continues its down trend. Currently, Bank Nifty is sell on rise mode and one can expect a reversal from the marked harmonic level.
BUY TEXMOPIPES (a micro-cap company with good fundamentals)Its a micro cap company, don't invest more than 4-5% of your capital.
PROS (as per screener.in) -
- Company has reduced debt.
- Company is almost debt free.
- Stock is trading at 0.74 times its book value
- Company is expected to give good quarter
- Company has delivered good profit growth of 29.09% CAGR over last 5 years
- Debtor days have improved from 53.85 to 38.54 days.
CONS (as per screener.in) -
- Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
- Company has a low return on equity of 2.89% for last 3 years.
- Company's cost of borrowing seems high
Buy at 55-60 (Stock is in upper circuit)
Target as per Fibonacci: 80, 100, also can keep for long term
SL: 45
Follow me on tradingview @arsalanansari17
Bitcoin's rising wedge on the 4hBitcoin is forming a rising wedge on the 4h (what is a bearish pattern). If it breaks the lower support then we're likely to see the 57-58K range.
This may be a nice bounce since we're seeing a nice a wick from the bottom.
Let's hope this will be a trend reversal but we should also be aware of the Bitcoin fundamentals which can (slightly) change (ie. the Taproot Upgrade).
But, I'm still bullish for the future! To be honest with y'all I've de-risked a lot of my perps and are foremostly in spot because we're right now in a breaking point in my opinion (if we go down, we go down hard, if we go up, we go up but slighly slower)
The VPVR shows a lot of buying pressure at around 63K and not so much selling pressure above the current price.
If we break the current red zone, the next resistance that I'm watching is at around 65.5K.
Breakout of the Triangle When looking at the current BTC price you can see it broke down out of the symmetrical triangle and also broke the horizontal support.
We also got a 4 hour close out of the triangle, so I'd say we have a confirmed breakdown. I closed all of my long positions earlier today but I still don't know yet if I should short or not, since we were in a heavy uptrend. The RSI is heading a little bit lower and the VPVR shows a gap in the volume (so not so much buying pressure).
If I signal buying pressure from the bulls, I might reconsider to open up a new long lev position (low lev). But with leverage I'm careful because it can go fast and I don't want to be high leveraged on the wrong side.
But I'm definitely keeping my eye on the green support zone.