GOLD 29/6 $$ Gold's power is limited by the dollarThe XAU/USD pair is being negatively affected by the moderate strength of the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, has stated that there may be two rate increases this year, and it is possible that the next policy meeting on July 25-26 could result in a lift-off. Powell also mentioned that he does not expect inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target until 2025. As a result, the US Dollar remains strong, reaching a two-week high, which in turn puts pressure on the price of Gold. However, concerns about economic headwinds caused by rapidly increasing borrowing costs could prevent traders from taking aggressive bearish positions on the safe-haven precious metal. This could help limit any further losses, at least for now.
Today, gold price still tends to recover slightly, but still can't go up and down is still the main thing
Set up BUY GOLD zone $1900 -$1903
Based on technical analysis indicators EMA 34, EMA 89 , strong support zone $1900
Longgold
Gold broke major support for more sell side direction XAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1188.20
Key Resistance: 1184.55 - 1188.20 - 1192.89 - 1196.48
Key Support: 1180.23 - 1176.45 - 1174.88 - 1171.43
Technical Indicator:
RSI: The indicator having bullish divergence but moving under 50 level near to oversold condition.
Moving Average: CMP 1182 Price moving under Simple moving average 100 & 55, sign for more down trend ahead.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1188.20 with targets at 1182.55 & 1176.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1188.20 look for further upside with 1191.89 & 1194.66 as targets.
Overall, Gold markets broke down rather significantly during the day on Thursday, slicing through the $1200 level like it wasn’t even there. Furthermore, we broke below the hammer at the $1195 level, which is a further sign of weakness.
the US economy is running at full steam ahead, it was appropriate that the Fed removed that sentence from the statement - But what markets traded was the forward outlook - As the policy rate moves closer to estimates of neutral, members of the FOMC and observers, market participants, now forecast a modestly restrictive terminal FFTR while other Central Banks embark on their own normalization of policy, thus stripping some of the yield advantages out of the long end of the curve for the dollar.
However, in the near term, the dollar remains on top and following today's set of economic data,"Between Chairman Powell's comment yesterday the that the U.S. economy is in a particularly good spot and today's robust durable good orders and excellent business spending, despite the August pause the six months to July saw the strongest investment spending in five years, the dollar has room to run on the American economy alone."
US economic data
US: Pending home sales decline by 1.8% in August vs 0.4% expected.
US: Durable goods orders increased by 4.5% in August following July's 1.2% contraction.
US: Real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 4.2% in Q2 to match expectations.
FOMC outcome notes
As expected, the FOMC raised the FFTR and the IOER by 25bps at its September meeting.
‘Dot-plot’ distribution around three hikes in 2019 narrowed; FOMC still sees strong growth as cyclical.
2021 projections indicate a ‘soft landing’ through lower real growth and slightly higher unemployment.
The only significant change to the statement was the removal of the description of monetary policy stance as “accommodate”.
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YoCryptoManic
Gold Still in Bart Pattern, Struggling in $1190-$1205 XAUUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1193.70
Key Resistance: 1197.45 - 1200.25 - 1203.59 - 1207.89
Key Support: 1193.70 - 1190.55 - 1188.10 - 1184.22
Day Trading Range: 1186 - 1204
Technical Indicator:
RSI: Indicator shows down side momentum, moving around below 50 level.
MACD: MacD loosing bulls side power.
Moving Average: SMA 55 (1200) & SMA 200 (1198) both are strong resistance for Gold today.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1193.70 with targets at 1200.45 & 1204.55 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1193.70 look for further downside with 1190.25 & 1187.25 as targets.
Overall, Gold is still range bound with support levels lined up at 1193.90, 1192.70, 1189.50 and 1187.50. Technically, the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is 1187.50. This is because under this level, there is no support until $1167.10. If buyers continue to come in to defend 1193.90 to 1187.50, then this could generate enough counter-trend momentum to fuel a rally into 1205.90 then possibly 1215.10.
Gold futures closed lower on Wednesday mostly in reaction to the Fed’s widely expected rate hike. However, there was a little improvement late in the session after the initial reaction to the news as traders interpreted the Fed’s monetary policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as dovish.
Gold could pick up a bid on Thursday if investors continue to price in a dovish Fed. Furthermore, the market could get support from lower Treasury yields, a softer U.S. Dollar and a drop in demand for higher-yielding assets.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic