USDCAD buyers have a long road ahead as the key week beginsUSDCAD crossed a one-week-old resistance the previous day but stayed on the way to the first monthly loss in three inside a fortnight-long bearish channel. That said, the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.3725 acts as an immediate hurdle to test the pair buyers before directing them to the stated channel’s upper line, close to 1.3745 at the latest. Following that, there are multiple levels near 1.3840-50 which could challenge the upside move targeting a fresh yearly top, currently around 1.3980. It’s worth noting that the 1.4000 psychological magnet may offer an extra buffer to the north before giving control to the bulls.
Alternatively, the resistance-turned-support near 1.3555 and a monthly horizontal support zone surrounding 1.3500-3495 could restrict the short-term downside of the USDCAD pair. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, around 1.3460, might act as the last defense for the buyers. It should be observed that September 22 swing low near 1.3410 and the 1.3400 round figure might check the bears ahead of directing them to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October advances, at 1.3343.
Overall, USDCAD consolidates monthly loss as traders brace for the key week including the Fed’s verdict, US NFP and Canadian employment numbers.
Loonie
Rising wedge challenges USDCAD bulls below 1.4000USDCAD retreats from the highest level in 29 months as bulls appear to run out of steam. That being said, the recent moves of oscillators and the rising wedge bearish formation on the top teases sellers at the multi-month top. However, a clear downside break of the stated pattern’s support line, around 1.3930 by the press time, as well as the smashing of the 100-SMA level of 1.3695, becomes necessary for the bears. Following that, a south-run towards the monthly low near 1.3500 seems quick on the way to the theoretical target of 1.3400.
Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the USDCAD pair’s moves between September 14 and October 05, around 1.3935, could lure the intraday buyers ahead of the aforementioned wedge’s top, close to the 1.4000 psychological magnet. In a case where the quote stays firmer past 1.4000, the 78.6% FE level near 1.4050 could challenge the upside momentum before directing the bulls towards the May 2020 peak surrounding 1.4175.
Overall, USDCAD grinds higher inside a bearish chart formation to appear risky for the fresh long positions.
USDCAD approaches key resistance inside 250-pip trading rangeUSDCAD bounced off its monthly low on Friday, approaching a convergence of the 100 and 50-SMA around 1.2960-65 at the latest. The recovery moves also gain support from the upbeat RSI, not oversold, as well as recently improving MACD signals. That said, the Loonie pair’s upside past 1.2965 needs validation from the 1.3000 psychological magnet before approaching the 1.3080-85 resistance area. In a case where the prices rally beyond 1.3085, the monthly top of 1.3223 will be in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, pullback moves could aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-July upside, around 1.2870 before challenging the stated trading range’s lower end, around 1.2820. It’s worth noting that a clear downside below 1.2820 could become detrimental for the USDCAD bulls if backed by a clear break of the 1.2800 round figure. In that case, the bears could aim for June’s low near 1.2520.
Overall, USDCAD pares recent losses inside a five-week-old trading range.
Rising Channel BreakdownUSDCAD has been moving in a rising channel pattern from the past one month from which it took a breakdown in the previous session. The price has given a daily close below the lower trendline, confirming an upcoming bearish move in the pair. The take profit is set at 1.31833 and stop-loss at 1.3193.