NIFTY (TIME & LUNAR CYCLE)The very word “lunacy” dates back to the 15th century when it was believed the moon and its phases could make people become more or less aggressive, depending on its place in the lunar cycle
Several studies found a connection between full and new Moons and stock market performance. Generally, stocks tend to perform better in the days around the New Moon, while price weakness is more frequently seen in the days around Full Moon. It was also observed that major market crashes have a history of happening about 3 days before a New Moon. We will try to understand the significance of cyclical movements in Nifty its theory and few previously applied practical executions (that gave precise accuracy) and at last try to predict NIFTY for the upcoming time using the same.
Let’s try to put the very same concept of Lunar Cycles and Time cycles in Nifty and draw a conclusion of the possible scenario that could happen in future after drawing a pattern from the past.
LUNAR CYCLES IN NIFTY:
Every downside rally starts or intensifies with Full Moon Day. If we look at downside rally starting 19th OCT 2021, it started just a day before full moon day and market fell by almost 12%.
- On downside rally starting 18th JAN 2022, which started just a day after full moon day and market fell by almost 14.60%.
- On downside rally starting 5th APR 2022, which started just few days before full moon day and market fell by almost 16%.
- On downside rally starting 15th SEPT 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 7.5%.
- On downside rally starting 2th DEC 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 5.87%
Just Lunar Cycle alone is not enough as these are also confirmed by 55 Days Reversal cycle. This ongoing reversal was well informed before it was initiated .Please check this analysis (dated 2nd Dec 2022) to find the same:
The current high was predicted based on Fibonacci Retracement (dated 29th OCT 2022, Target done on 1st DEC 2022)
If we look at the past we can see that the process of Low formation takes a time of about 99-101 days approximately, which means in every 99 to 101 days a low is formed where after Nifty rallies upside by a whopping 10% minimum.
One more interesting pattern that can be seen is after a low is formed Nifty forms the high in 3 * x number of days, such as 27 days , 87 days or 63 days ( Anything that is a multiple of 3), the remaining days when subtracted from 100, are the days it takes to form the low. It has been plotted with date range in the chart itself. This is how we should try to find a time cycle pattern .But anyways as we have predicted the high with a price and time confirmation successfully, we should be focusing on finding the bottom of NIFTY where we can get a buy opportunity.
If we do the Mathematics behind the low formation and high low formation then we will come to a hypothetical result that an initiation of upside in NIFTY may be seen just before or after 6th JAN. Because the previous low formation date was 29th Sept 2022 and 100 days from it is 6th JAN 2022. Expected NIFTY downside levels are mentioned in the chart itself.
OR ELSE THE CALCULATION MAY BE COMPUTED IN THIS WAY:
The previous low was formed was in 29th Sept 2022 and market rallied upside for approximately 63 days and remaining is 37 days to complete the 99-101 days Low formation cycle. So probably NIFTY may finish the correction near to 6th JAN 2022.
This is just an example that how time cycles are needed to be identified by a trader as it is not visible easily. Moreover in predictive analysis the probability of any error is high. So one possibility we can’t ignore is that market may bottom out before the mentioned date but I strongly feel the aggressive upside may be seen only near to 6th JAN 2022.
CHART & ANALYSIS
ADARSH DEY
