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AUDUSD funnels down to a weekly triangle breakout AUDUSD gyrates inside the one-week-old symmetrical triangle after the RBA Minutes and Governor Philip Lowe’s speech. Given the RBA’s hawkish bias and recently firmer RSI, the Aussie pair is likely to cross the stated triangle to the upside, which in turn highlights 0.7015 as immediate resistance. However, the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.7065, as well as the early June swing low near 0.7140, will act as important hurdles afterward. Should the quote manage to stay firmer past 0.7140, an upside towards the 0.7200 threshold and then to the 0.7230 resistance level can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, AUDUSD bears await a clear downside break of the aforementioned triangle’s lower line, around 0.6920 by the press time. Following that, the monthly low near 0.6850 and May’s bottom of 0.6828 could gain the seller’s attention. In a case where the quote drops below 0.6828, the downside momentum may aim for late 2019 lows close to 0.6680-75. Overall, the AUDUSD eyes to consolidate the previous two-week downtrend but a clear break of the 0.7015 support is necessary for the pair’s advances.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY has limited downside room, BOJ, Fed’s Powell in focusA clear downside break of the fortnight-old support line, favored USDJPY bears in the last few days. However, a convergence of the 100-EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May 24 to June 14 upside, around 132.00, seemed to have triggered the latest rebound. Also acting as short-term key support is a horizontal area comprising tops marked during late April and early May, surrounding 131.25-35. As the RSI (14) bounces off oversold territory, the aforementioned supports could form the pair’s bottom as traders await Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting results and a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Should the quote drop below 131.25, the 61.8% Fibo. level near 129.80 might return to the charts. Meanwhile, a confluence of the 50-EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 133.40, guards the immediate upside. Following that, the support-turned-resistance from early June and the latest peak could challenge the USDJPY buyers around 135.60. If at all the quote rises past 135.60, the late 1998swing highs near 137.30 and 138.30 could probe the bulls before directing them to the 140.00 psychological magnet. On the fundamental side, the BOJ isn’t expected to announce any major changes to its monetary policies, which in turn makes the event less important than Powell’s speech. Though, the current environment of central banks providing hawkish surprises might push the traditional dove, which in turn can entertain USDJPY traders.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD has more downside room amid pre-Fed USD strengthEURUSD dribbles around a monthly low after breaking the six-week-old horizontal support. That said, the downward sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold, joins bearish MACD signals to also hint at the major currency pair’s further downside. With this, the sellers brace for the yearly low surrounding 1.0350. However, the RSI line and nearness to the Fed may restrict the quote’s downside below the same, if not then the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, around 1.0270, will gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, corrective pullback needs to sustain beyond the immediate support-turned-resistance, around 1.0460-70, to convince short-term EURUSD buyers. Following that, the 20-DMA level near 1.0650 will precede the monthly top of 1.0773 to challenge the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that May’s top near 1.0790 acts as a validation point for the quote’s run-up towards late April swing high near 1.0935. Overall, broad US dollar strength ahead of the Fed’s widely anticipated rate hike keeps EURUSD pressured towards refreshing the yearly low marked in May.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on Fed, BOEA clear downside break of the six-week-old horizontal support keeps GBPUSD bears hopeful of further south-run ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meetings. That said, 1.2255-50 appears immediate support for the cable ahead of the yearly low surrounding 1.2150. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained downturn past 1.2160 could make it vulnerable to further declines toward the 1.2000 psychological magnet. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March to May moves, near 1.1950, might lure the bears. Alternatively, recovery remains elusive until the quote remains below the recently broke support-turned-resistance, around 1.2400-2410. Even if the GBPUSD prices rise beyond 1.2410, a downward sloping trend line from February and the 50-DMA, respectively near 1.2570 and 1.2640, will be in focus. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s successful run-up beyond the 50-DMA needs validation from May’s high near 1.2665 to convince the buyers. Overall, GBPUSD is ready to extend the latest downward trajectory but the oscillators may test the bears and so do the central bankers. Hence, traders’ discretion appears more required.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears attack 1.2480 support confluenceGBPUSD not only snapped a two-week uptrend by the end of Friday but also jostles with short-term key support around 1.2480, comprising 100-SMA and a fortnight-long support line. Descending RSI and sluggish MACD also suggest that the bulls ran out of steam, suggesting further downside ahead. Hence, bears appear hopeful of revisiting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May downside, around 1.2385, with the immediate battle to be won against 1.2480. Following that, 1.2330 and 1.2260 may entertain sellers before directing them to May’s low of 1.2155. Any corrective pullback, however, needs validation from a downward sloping trend line from mid-April, surrounding 1.2600 by the press time. Also acting as an upward filter is May’s peak of 1.2666, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2770. In a case where GBPUSD buyers remain dominant past 1.2770, an upward trajectory towards April 19 swing low close to 1.2980 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD signals further downside but sustained trading below 1.2480 becomes necessary.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD teases bears ahead of US ADP Employment dataEURUSD fades three-week-old recovery as it remains below a downward sloping trend line from early February, around 1.0745 by the press time. Also keeping sellers hopeful is the RSI retreat and a downside break of the 1.0690 support-turned-resistance confluence, comprising an ascending support line from May 13 and 10-DMA. That said, the bears seem approaching 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of the February-May downturn, around 1.0620, becomes imminent. In a case where the pair remains pressured below 1.0620, monthly horizontal support close to 1.0470-60 appears the last defense of sellers. On the contrary, a successful break of the multi-day-old resistance line, near 1.0745, becomes necessary to recall buyers. Even so, a validation from the 38.2% Fibo. level surrounding 1.0785, as well as March’s low of 1.0805, becomes necessary to convince EURUSD bulls. However, the pair’s run-up beyond 1.0805 won’t hesitate to challenge the late April swing high around 1.0935. Overall, EURUSD bulls seem running out of steam but the bears need clear signals and are challenged by the US data’s presence as well.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls run out of steam after Aussie GDPAUDUSD struggles to remain beyond a three-week-old support line, having reversed from a multi-day high the previous day, even as Australia’s Q1 2022 GDP rises past the market’s downbeat forecasts with 0.8% QoQ figures. That said, the Aussie pair bears need validation from the immediate support line, near 0.7145, to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April-May fall, around 0.7025. The quote’s downside past 0.7025, however, could struggle as the broad 0.6965-50 support area appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to refresh the yearly low, marked in May around 0.6830. Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 100-DMA level surrounding 0.7230, as well as May’s peak near 0.7265. Following that, a run-up towards 61.8% Fibo level close to 0.7345 becomes imminent. However, tops marked in March and late April, respectively around 0.7440 and 0.7455, will challenge the AUDUSD bulls before directing them to April’s high, also the yearly peak, near 0.7660. Overall, AUDUSD recently flashed the much-awaited pullback signals and hence further downside is brewing. However, the US NFP is left to propel prices, which in turn requires the trader’s discretion.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
200-DMA tests USDCAD bears ahead of Canada GDPUSDCAD bears keep reins around a five-week low, attacking the 200-DMA ahead of the key Canada Q1 GDP. Given the likelihood of a softer growth number, as well as considering nearly oversold RSI, the Loonie pair may rebound from the stated moving average surrounding 1.2660. In a case where the quote refrains from respecting the RSI and the DMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2021 to May 2022 upside and an upward sloping support line from late 2021, respectively near 1.2585 and 1.2500, will be important to watch during the additional south-run. Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially aim for the 1.2700 threshold and then the 1.2760 hurdle before challenging a 13-day-long resistance line surrounding the 1.2800 round figure. It’s worth noting that the USDCAD pair’s run-up beyond 1.2800 won’t hesitate to challenge March’s high of 1.2900 and December 2021 peak close to 1.2965. To sum up, USDCAD bears battle with the key support and may retreat a bit should the scheduled data disappoint.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays bullish above 1.0640 support, US PCE Inflation eyedEURUSD remains firmer inside a fortnight old bullish channel ahead of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also staying beyond the key SMAs. Currently, the channel’s upper line surrounding 1.0800 lures the pair buyers, a break of which will direct them towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April 21 to May 13 fall, near 1.0820. It’s worth noting that the RSI is speedily approaching the overbought territory and hence the run-up beyond 1.0820 appears difficult. However, a successful rise past 1.0820 won’t hesitate to challenge the latest peak close to 1.0935 with eyes on the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive unless breaking the 1.0640 support confluence, including 200-SMA and support line of the stated channel, also comprising the early May swing high. In a case where EURUSD drops below 1.0640, the 100-SMA level near 1.0550 will test the pair sellers, a break of which will allow them to revisit the monthly low of 1.0348. To sum up, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar ahead of the key inflation data but the upside room is limited and hence buyers need strong numbers to dominate further.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays on the bull’s radar despite recent pullbackEURUSD consolidates the biggest daily gains in nearly three months around a fortnight top during Tuesday. In doing so, the major currency pair retreats from a weekly ascending trend channel’s resistance line amid an overbought RSI. However, the quote remains beyond the 200-SMA and previous resistance line from late March, respectively around 1.0650 and the 1.0560. Adding strength to the 1.0560 support is the lower line of the aforementioned channel. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA level of 1.0525 and April’s low of 1.0470 also challenge the pair’s weakness past 1.0560. On the flip side, a fresh run-up will aim for another battle with the stated channel’s resistance line, near 1.0710 at the latest. Also acting as the key upside hurdle is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May downside, close to 1.0765. In a case where EURUSD rises past 1.0765, the bulls can aim for late April’s swing high surrounding 1.0935. Overall, EURUSD bears need to stay cautious before taking any major positions as the quote is yet to defy the previous breakouts.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY activates awaited fall, 127.00 appears nearby supportUSDJPY remains pressured around a two-week low, despite the latest rebound from 127.50, after the yen pair slipped beneath an upward sloping support line from March-end. The south-run recently broke 100-SMA and is well on the way to the 127.00-126.90 zone comprising 200-SMA and multiple levels marked in a month. It’s worth noting that the pair’s downside past 126.90 may wait for the RSI to turn normal, currently oversold, if not then the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of late March to early May run-up, near 125.00 should return to the charts. Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 129.40 level comprising the 100-SMA and April 20 swing high. Following that, the previous support line and the monthly peak, respectively around 130.50 and 131.35, could lure USDJPY bulls. In a case where the yen pair successfully rises past 131.35, buyers are entitled to challenge the year 2002 high surrounding 135.20. Overall, USDJPY bulls have been tired of late and the latest breakdown triggers the required bearish signal.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD’s bear flag hints at further fall in pricesAlthough the weekly channel restricts EURUSD moves while other major currency pairs portray heavy selling against the USD, the bearish flag formation joins downbeat MACD and RSI signals to keep sellers hopeful. Additionally favoring the pair bears is the sustained trading below a descending trend line from March, as well as the 200-SMA and a six-week-old horizontal resistance. However, the south-run needs a trigger and 1.0500 is the same to activate a theoretical slump targeting the 1.0000 psychological magnet. Though, lows marked during 2017 and mid-1999, respectively around 1.0340 and 1.0100, may act as intermediate halts during the anticipated fall. Alternatively, the upper line of mentioned flag, around 1.0650, acts as an immediate upside barrier during the corrective pullback. Following that, the previously stated descending resistance line and the 200-SMA, near 1.0730 and 1.0810 in that order, will act as additional barriers for the EURUSD bulls. It’s worth noting that the pair bears remain hopeful until the quote rallies beyond the multi-day-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 1.0950. To sum up, the EURUSD pair’s hesitance in declining isn’t an early sign of recovery in prices.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound appears overdue ahead of Fed’s showdownEURUSD holds onto the one-week-old sideways grind ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As a 0.50% rate hike is well-known, as well as priced-in, the Fed will have to supersede market expectations to stay ahead of the curve and keep US dollar on the throne. In that case, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March, around 1.0485, holds the key to the south-run targeting the 2017’s yearly bottom surrounding 1.0340. However, the 1.0400 threshold will act as an intermediate halt while portraying the Fed’s superpower action. In a case where the US central banker chose to disappoint markets, by either meeting expectations of a 0.50% rate lift or resisting faster consolidation of policy, the EURUSD pair could witness the much-awaited rebound, as signalled by the oversold RSI line. The following recovery could quickly bounce back beyond the previous support line, around 1.0580, before challenging the 78.6% FE level surrounding 1.0630-35. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0635, the 1.0760 level comprising the 61.8% FE acts as the last defence for the buyers. Overall, EURUSD prices have witnessed notable downside in anticipation of the Fed’s larger-than-life move but an actual outcome will be crucial for the next moves.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD pierces 0.7100 on RBA’s rate hikeAUDUSD bulls cheer the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in early Tuesday. The recovery moves also justify the RSI rebound from oversold territory, as well as pierce a downward sloping resistance line from April 21, near 0.7100 by the press time. Considering the RBA’s hawkish moves, backed by firmer technicals, the Aussie pair is likely rising towards the mid-March swing low surrounding 0.7165. However, the 200-SMA and previous support line from March, around 0.7285 and 0.7410 in that order, will challenge the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, the pair’s fresh downside may aim for the 0.7040 level before directing the bears towards the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6965 will be in focus as a break of which will direct the AUDUSD bears toward the mid-2020 lows near 0.6775. Overall, AUDUSD is cheering the well-due recovery as the RBA announced rate-hike. However, the upside momentum needs validation from the Fed before reversing the broadly bearish trend.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD pullback eyes 1.2700 ahead of the key US dataUSDCAD refreshed a seven-year high on Thursday before reversing from a downward sloping trend line from December 2021. The overbought RSI condition on the daily chart also seemed to have challenged the pair bulls. However, the Loonie pair’s ability to stay well beyond the 200-DMA amid bullish MACD signals hints at the quote’s strength. Hence, a clear break of the aforementioned resistance line, at 1.2860 by the press time, is more likely and could escalate the run-up towards December’s peak of 1.2963, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of October-December upside, around 1.2700 at the latest. However, the bears will remain confused until witnessing sustained trading below the 1.2630 level comprising the 200-DMA and 50% Fibo. Following that, the pair’s south-run towards the last week’s bottom surrounding 1.2460 can’t be ruled out. Overall, USDCAD bulls have controls but the upside momentum needs validation, which in turn highlights today’s US Core PCE Price Index data for March, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays on the way to sub-0.7000 region despite recent bounAUDUSD rebounds from a two-month low, also snapping a four-day downtrend, by cheering a strong quarterly inflation data at home. The recovery moves could also be linked to the oversold RSI and a U-turn from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April upside. However, the Aussie remains below the key moving averages and the Fibo levels and the MACD signals are firmly bearish, which in turn suggests that the bears aren’t out of the woods. Hence, fresh selling pressure can’t be ruled out with the first support around 0.7110, comprising 78.6% Fibo. Following that, 0.7050 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet can lure the sellers ahead of directing them to the yearly low surrounding 0.6965. Meanwhile, further recovery hinges on the pair’s ability to close beyond the previous month’s low surrounding 0.7165. Should the AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.7165 hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-DMA, respectively around 0.7230 and 0.7290, will be on their radar. Even so, the 50-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line from January, close to 0.7355 and 0.7385 in that order, will test the pair buyers before giving them control. Other than the technicals, the market’s risk-off mood and firmer USD also challenge the AUDUSD buyers.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD hints at corrective pullback during the big weekDespite a refreshing two-year low, EURUSD prices remain above a five-month-old downward sloping support line. Adding strength to the recovery hope is Emmanuel Macro’s victory in French Presidential Elections and nearly oversold RSI. That being said, the 10-DMA level surrounding 1.0810 challenges the corrective pullback before directing buyers towards the monthly horizontal resistance near 1.0940. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-DMA and a descending trend line from early February, respectively around 1.1000 and 1.1030, will be tough nuts to crack for the pair bulls afterward. Meanwhile, the aforementioned support line from late 2021, near 1.0690 by the press time, restricts the immediate downside of EURUSD prices ahead of Tuesday’s Durable Goods Orders. Also important for the week are the Preliminary readings of Q1 2022 GDP figures for the US and Eurozone, up for publishing on Thursday and Friday in that order. Even if the quote drops below 1.0690, the year 2020 lows around 1.0635 and the 1.0600 threshold may entertain bears ahead of highlighting the late 2015 bottom of 1.0515.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD remains vulnerable to further downsideEURUSD licks its wounds around a two-year low during a cautiously optimistic Asian session on Wednesday. In doing so, the major currency pair takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-April moves. However, a downward sloping trend line from March 31 challenges the quote’s corrective pullback near 1.0830 ahead of a broad resistance zone surrounding 1.0930-60 comprising 200-SMA and multiple levels marked in the last one month. Even if the quote manages to cross the 1.0960 hurdle, a 10-week-old descending resistance line near 1.1075 will be crucial for buyers to watch. On the contrary, the 61.8% FE level near 1.0750 restricts the immediate downside of the EURUSD pair ahead of April 2020 lows near 1.0730-25. Should the quote drop below 1.0730, the 1.0700 round figure and March 2020 bottom surrounding 1.0635 will lure the pair bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions aren’t supporting a no-break south-run and hence intermediate pullbacks can’t be ruled out. Overall, the EURUSD rebound remains elusive until crossing the 1.1075 level
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers attack 0.7365-60 support zone on China dataAUDUSD renews its monthly low during early Monday as mixed data from the biggest customer China joins the risk-off mood. However, a five-week-old horizontal support area surrounding 0.7365-60 tests the pair sellers. Adding to the downside filters is an upward sloping trend line from late February, around 0.7310 by the press time. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside break of the 0.7310 will need validation from the 0.7300 threshold before directing bears toward the early March swing low. On the contrary, the 200-SMA level of 0.7410 guards the quote’s recovery moves ahead of the 100-SMA, at 0.7485 at the latest. During the quote’s successful break of 0.7485, AUDUSD could aim for 0.7540 and the 0.7600 resistance level. Moving on, successful trading past-0.7600 enables the Aussie pair to renew the yearly top close to 0.7665 by approaching the 0.7700 round figure. It should be noted that oversold RSI and multiple key supports to the south can challenge the bears going forward. However, sour sentiment and a clear break below the key SMAs keep sellers hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD struggles to keep recovery around 1.2600USDCAD’s rebound from a weekly low fails to cross the 200-SMA hurdle amid a holiday-thinned trading session on Friday. Not only the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2630 but a downward sloping trend line from March 08, near 1.2660, also challenge the pair’s upside momentum. It’s worth noting that the quote’s upside past 1.2660 needs validation from the monthly high around 1.2680 and early March month’s low near 1.2695 to convince buyers. Other than the multiple hurdles to the north, steady RSI and sluggish MACD also challenge the Loonie pair’s advances. On the contrary, pullback moves may aim for the 1.2540 support convergence comprising the 100-SMA and a three-week-old horizontal area. Following that, multiple levels marked since late March will challenge the USDCAD bears around 1.2460. In a case where the prices drop below 1.2460, the monthly bottom near 1.2400 and the 61.8% FE of March-April moves, close to 1.2360, will be on sellers’ radars.
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD rebound remains elusive below 0.7500AUDUSD keeps the bounce off 200-SMA despite mixed jobs report as market sentiment improves during early Thursday in Asia. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and one-week-old horizontal resistance, around 0.7500, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. In a case where the pair rises past the 0.7500 hurdle, 0.7540 and 0.7580 may act as intermediate challenges for the buyers before fueling the quote towards the monthly high of 0.7660. On the contrary, a clear downside break of the 200-SMA, near 0.7400 by the press time, will allow AUDUSD sellers to aim for an upward sloping support line from February, near the 0.7300 round figure. During the fall, the early March swing high near 0.7365 may act as a buffer. That said, the pair’s sustained declines past 0.7300 won’t hesitate to challenge the previous monthly low near 0.7165. It’s worth noting that a clear bounce off the key moving average joins firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals to keep short-term buyers hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
1
EURUSD bears eye 1.0800 ahead of US inflationEURUSD fades Friday’s rebound ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Steady RSI and bearish MACD signals also support the bearish bias. That said, the 1.0845-35 region offers immediate support to the currency major ahead of directing it to the latest multi-month low surrounding the 1.0800 threshold. In a case where EURUSD bears remain dominant past 1.0800, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March moves, near 1.0755, will be in focus. On the flip side, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo.) and 21-DMA, respectively around 1.0970 and 1.0990, restrict the short-term recovery of the EURUSD pair. However, bulls remain cautious until the quote stays below the 50-DMA level of 1.1125. Also acting as an upside filter is the previous month’s peak around 1.1185. It’s worth noting that the pair’s successful trading above 1.1185 enables the buyers to retake control. Overall, US inflation data is likely to exert downside pressure on the EURUSD prices.
Short
by MTradingGlobal