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Marketcycle

$AG setting up for a rip your face off rally #tothemoonFirst Majestic is a hated stock as of now, it also has the largest short position in the entire silver miners listed in NYSE. Bad sentiments and frustrated investors is a great combination to identify when a sector bottoms. Looking at the price action as of now, especially from $4.5 to $7.8 it looks like a strong bullish reversal. Also this is a institution move, smart money is buying silently. Also with silver heading to new highs, which means that silver miners are turning healthy. Many silver miners are making decent margins already around 15-20% OPM, the higher silver prices go the more Free Cash Flow will be generated which will directly impact bottom line. And, the valuations are dirt cheap. Reasons why like like First Majestic : - Acquired Gatos Silver recently, by this deal the net AISC improves, i feel it should be around $20-18. Before acquisition NYSE:AG AISC was $25, Gatos Silver being a low cost producer should now cumulatively bring the AISC down. - They also announced a share repurchase program which is a positive. - They are the only silver miner with a Mint capacity, First Mint Store. Unlike other mints, which are either government-owned or privately held. Good addition to capture the entire value chain. Well at current valuation and where the silver price is at its hard for me to see the downside. So i may be biased. I will only exit this scrip if i see Silver go below $23. That is my exit criteria. Disclaimer : This analysis is purely for education. As i am invested in this scrip I may be biased. Don't take this as an investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before any speculative investments.
NYSE:AGLong
by nishant_bhatt
Navigating the Bullish Surge: A Cautious Approach to InvestingThe Indian markets are experiencing an extraordinary rally, with major indices soaring to unprecedented heights. This surge is undoubtedly enticing for retail traders and investors eager to capitalize on the momentum. However, the pressing question remains: Are these elevated levels truly the right time to enter the market? Perhaps not. To gain insight, we can turn to a diagram by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue that illustrates the typical stages of a market bubble. When we overlay this framework onto the current landscape of Indian indices, it becomes apparent that we may be on the brink of significant market movement—potentially in the coming weeks. History has shown us that markets can swing from euphoric bullishness to sharp corrections. Notable examples include the catastrophic crash of 2008 and the rapid declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While we may not face declines as drastic as those events, it’s essential for retail traders to be proactive in safeguarding their investments. One effective strategy to mitigate downside risk is to consider purchasing long dated put option. A put option provides the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset without the obligation to do so. This means that if the market experiences a downturn—whether in the immediate future or after a few weeks or months—the put option can yield significant profits during a substantial decline. On the flip side, if the market continues its upward trajectory, the put option will gradually lose value and may eventually become worthless as indices continue to set new records. The key takeaway here is to keep your investment strategy straightforward and avoid unnecessary complexity. This is merely one of many strategies available for investors looking to protect their portfolios. Final Thoughts: As we navigate these exciting yet unpredictable market conditions, it’s crucial to remain vigilant and informed. While the allure of all-time highs is compelling, prudent risk management is essential for long-term success in investing. Disclaimer: All investments carry inherent market risks. This article is not a recommendation; please conduct your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by VishalSubandh
Twelve Choruses of a Market Cycle 1. The Washout: “Stocks are Going Way Down” At the bottom of a market crash, business news is usually terrible and many authorities declare that things will probably get worse. The public dumps stocks without regard to value. Eventually, though, a point is reached where everybody who can be scared into selling has sold. Usually, the final battle occurs in a few days of extremely high volume known as a “selling climax.” 2. The Early Surge: “Things look better but it’s too early to buy. Wait for a pull-back.” The government, shocked by the decline announces public works and other stimuli which, of course, will not take effect until many months later. So, the pundits declare that, this time, the stimulus isn’t working. “It’s like pushing on a rope,” they say. Months go by and prices rise. When “everybody” is waiting for a buying opportunity, there will ordinarily be no buying opportunity. 3. The Surge Continues: “Prices seem high. It’s too late to buy.” More months pass and the market establishes an upward channel. Higher prices pull in buying from the institutions waiting on the sidelines. The public moves from feeling that it is too early to buy to suspecting it might be too late. 4. The Second Stage of the Rocket: “Maybe it’s okay to buy.” After long time or so after the bottom, the public, watching from the sidelines, becomes interested. There are a number of downward bounces, or tests, against the bottom of the market’s rising channel. Each time, the recovery starts from a higher level. 5. Not a Cloud in the Sky: “Buy!” More time go by, the market is way up and the public is hooked. Business news is excellent. The “standard forecast” is optimistic. Some particular market area becomes a market darling and is bid up to irrational levels. We see, also the use of derivatives—on a vast scale. 6. The Blow-off: “Stocks can only go up.” Hot Managers become famous. 7. Coasting: “The market does seem high but this time it’s different.” As the months wear on, stocks hesitate; their upward pace slows, with only a few favourites making new highs. The market analyst detects this by the falling ratio of advances to declines. In a bull market,enough stock is “manufactured” to satisfy everyone. “When the ducks quack, feed ‘em.” 8. The Top: “Hold!” The government, concerned about speculation and economic overheating, starts leaning against the wind. Another few months pass and we see a series of vicious reactions. The arrival of belated “second chance” buyers halts each decline and puts the list up to new highs. 9. Over the Hump: “It’s too soon to sell.” The public remains heavily in the market but the professional investors are edging out. A downward channel is established. 10. The Slide: “Prices are cheap but it’s too late to sell.” After a few more months, a number of issues have fallen appreciably from their highs. The market, sinks on bad news but fails to respond to governmental stimulation measures and bullish company announcements. 11. “It’s okay to sell.” After a while, we may see a severe decline, with more volatile issues. There is often a deceptive recovery, which one might call the “trap rally”. 12. The Cascade: “Sell!” Now the river seeps over the brink, carrying everything with it. Business news is bad and the standard forecast is for stormy weather. The hot-fund managers have to meet redemptions but find out that illiquid securities cannot be sold and depart in disgrace. 13 (or back to 1 again). The Selling Climax: “The market’s going way down.” The torrent crashes down the hills. Some stocks give up in a day/week all their gains for a years. It is so sudden and so awful that, for a while, many investors cannot quite believe it. So here we are again, years or so after we started out, half drowned, bones broken, washed out. But if you have kept some reserves intact and know enough to recognize real value when it is being dumped by panicky, uninformed sellers, and have the guts to act, then you can make the buys of a lifetime at these moments. We have had many economic storms. Each time, investors became convinced that the skies would never clear or the sun shine again. And it always does. ' #keepinvesting #neverloosehope #firstlearntheninvest #learningisearning #educationalpost #rachanak like if you agree comment if there is anything to add to above disclaimer - shared as learnt, read, followed personally GOOD LUCK FRIENDS
Education
by sankhyainvestments
Economics Cycle | Business Cycle |The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product around its long-term growth trend. The length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence. The economic cycle is the fluctuation of the economy between periods of expansion (growth) and contraction (recession). Factors such as gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, total employment, and consumer spending, can help to determine the current stage of the economic cycle FOLLOW & COMMENT & LIKE
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by ReviveTraders
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