Tariffs and a Wild S&P 500 Ride: A Trader’s View on the ChaosA Horrible 8 Days for Traders:
The last 8 days have been a nightmare for traders and investors. Portfolios crashed hard, battered by uncertainty in the market—all thanks to tariff news from a U.S. leader with a business background and his ultra-wealthy advisor. The S&P 500 took a wild ride, and I’ve tracked every twist from the trading floor.
The Tariff Shock Hits
It started on April 2, 2025, when reciprocal tariffs were announced—taxes to counter other countries’ levies on U.S. goods. The S&P 500 closed that day as our benchmark. Here’s how it unfolded:
April 3: The index opened lower and closed nearly 5% down—a harsh kickoff.
April 4: It dropped another 6%, as tariff fears sank in deeper.
A Rumor Sparks Hope, Then Fades
On April 7, a rumor of a 90-day tariff pause emerged. The reaction was swift:
April 7: The S&P 500 surged around 6% intraday, giving us a glimmer of hope.
After few minutes: The White House dismissed it—no pause was coming. The gains vanished.
From its April 2 close to the April 7 low, the S&P 500 had plunged -15%. It was a dark stretch, with losses piling up fast.
The Pause Brings Relief
On April 9, the tide turned. After hints that the advisor told the leader between April 7 - 8, “These tariffs need rethinking,” they confirmed a 90-day pause on most tariffs, though one country faced steeper rates. The market responded:
April 9: The S&P 500 soared nearly 10%—a lifeline for battered portfolios.
Same Day Bonus: The company tied to the advisor leaped 22%, a standout gain.
Uncertainty or Intentional Moves?
Here’s the big question: Is this uncertainty, then sudden certainty, intentional? The tariff news threw markets into chaos, only for the pause to spark a swift rebound. In these moments:
Technical and fundamental analysis failed—charts and earnings reports were useless.
Trades hinged on headlines alone, a pattern I’ve seen before with major news.
Many technical analysts avoid trading when big events loom, and this shows why.
Could it be manipulation? The S&P 500 crashed 15% by April 7’s low, lifted 6% on a rumor, then soared 10% on the pause—while the advisor’s company hit 22%. Did someone foresee these swings?
Clues in the Chaos
There’s more to ponder:
Analysts warned tariffs could cut S&P 500 earnings by 5%, yet the policy rolled out—until this pause.
That 22% company surge on April 9 aligns perfectly with the market’s 10% rise.
When business-savvy leaders steer policy, their moves ripple through the market. Were these shifts too perfect for those in the know?
What’s Next After 90 Days?
What happens when the pause ends? Will the market fall again? It’s already reacted with that 10% jump on April 9, and markets don’t always repeat the same dance. Without a new shock, nothing big might happen after 90 days—but that’s a question for the next headline.
A Lesson for Traders
This tariff drama proves how policy can sway the S&P 500 like a pendulum. From an 15% plunge to a 10% rally, traders felt the pain but some may have gained far more. Stay alert: when leaders with business know-how call the shots, the market listens, and we’re left wondering who’s really in control.
