Weak Global Cues Force Nifty To End In RedNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -30-07-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15800.6 / 15862.8 / 15744.85 / 15763.05
Trading Range Low to High: 118 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 59 points
India VIX: 12.8 / -1.16%
FII DII activities: -932 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
The opening candle on the 5 minutes chart was a shocker - almost 80 points and the moves were violent as there was a spike in prices of HDFC twins and then they sank and then HDFC spiked yet again.
In the last half an hour, the opening was retested as the global cues were negative so we had to close in the Red to fall in line with the leaders.
After the first 15 minutes of action-packed drama, there was range-bound action and even though the European markets were in good red, suddenly, there was a breakout of 50+ points on Nifty which got sold in to and proved to be a fake-out.
If the candles of yesterday and today are combined, there would be little difference in the Nifty level as more or less they are identical. Except that today was a HH and HL day.
TOP 3 LOSERS
HINDALCO - Looks like the traders are unsure if the scrip would sustain around these levels as profit booking was in action albeit with low volume. So we have to see how it trades in the next few sessions.
BAJAJ FINANCE - From the ATH to a big red candle - a dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing. Gap-filling for open gaps has been accomplished and it is closer to 20 DMA so wait and watch for now.
SBI LIFE - Yesterday’s candle had given an indication that profit booking is likely and that is what has happened. Looks like a steady rise is now getting encashed as the volumes are low.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SUN PHARMA - A very unusual candidate on this chart and what a roaring rise of 10% ahead of its results breaking out of a multi-year resistance. The volumes are also very high so now the action of 2-8-21 needs to be seen if it can test 800 in the coming week.
TECHM - A strong gap-up has set the scrip hanging in the air at ATH with strong volumes. The scrip could not close exactly at the ATH level, but it's close is still at ATH.
CIPLA - A strong bounce from the base camp but the volumes are not great as it is still below the 50 DMA which is at some distance away.
POSITIVES
HDFC twins and KOTAK BANK made it possible for Nifty to get back past 15835 levels.
The extent of negativity in European markets was severe at its open and yet Nifty rose so it is a good sign that the undercurrent is positive.
NEGATIVES
SBIN, AXISBANK, TCS, RELIANCE, ICICI BANK, ITC and INFOSYS ende in red. This was the major reason for the Nifty sell-off in the last hour or so.
Nifty is unable to decide which way to go as the under-current seems to be positive, but some of the heavyweights are dragging it down under global cues as the market context.
One more day and one failure to sustain above 15800 levels.
FIIs have sold a massive 3800+ Crores worth of shares. The selling spree is nonstop and DIIs are unable to match or overtake them by buying in large quantities.
TRADING RANGE FOR 02-08-21
Nifty support, for now, is at 15700-750. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again.
BANKNIFTY support range 34200-400 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break-out or down, the range-bound behavior is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
The Open price of Nifty on 29-7 was where it ended today - leave aside a point or two here and there. This has been happening regularly and those who thought like Pros would have made good gains today.
Even though we do not always rise when Global cues are positive, we end up following Global cues when they are negative and that is what was seen today. The fall from the high in the last 90 minutes seems to have occurred only for that purpose and we ended the day just below the earlier close by 15 points.
Such moves catch the retail traders on the wrong side as genuine SLs would get hunted and the FIIs / DIIs get a bargain buy/sell candidates.
The trading range for the indices has not changed despite one eventful trading day. So it is better to be stock-specific than Index specific.
With the reduced lot size in Nifty, making money has become hard. One lot of 50 is too small and 2 lots become a bit high from a risk management viewpoint.
FIIs relentless selling and DIIs inability to match it with buying is causing Nifty to find it hard to move up.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
30-07-2021.
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
