Crude Oil (MCX): Monday - 20/02/23Levels:
Support: 6200, 6160, 6070, 6020
Resistance: 6280, 6320, 6340, 6360, 6400
OI Data (16th Mar Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance per OI data: 6500
Nearest Major Support per IO data: 6400 *surprising*
Trade setup:
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
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BUY | > 6430 | 6375 | 6500 | 6575
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SELL | < 6200 | 6250 | 6150 |6070
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Mcxcrudeoiltips
Crude Oil (MCX): Monday - 05/12/22Levels:
Support: 6500, 6350, 6250, 6050
Resistance: 6650, 6780
OI Data (15th Dec Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance in Crude per OI data: 6600 (2.3K), 6700 (2.5K)
Nearest Major Support in Crude per IO data: 6500 (2.4K), 6400 (2K)
Trade setup:
1. For any buy trade, follow the N pattern (let the price run above the level, let it retraces back to the level and let it hold the level as support)
2. For any sell trade, follow the mirror-N pattern (let the price fall below the level, let it pull back to the level and unable to pass through the level as resistance).
Trade:
1. Looking at the OI data, it's going to be range bound : 6400-6700
2. So from OI perspective, this Option Strategy shall work for 15th Dec Expiry:
Strategy: Iron Condor (range bound)
BUY Call 7000, BUY Put 6100
SELL Call 6900, SELL Put 6200
All Dec-15 Expiry.
Is Crude Oil forming wave (5) of its wave cycle?Is MCX crude oil downtrend a trap?
According to the Elliott Wave analysis on the crude oil daily chart, it has completed wave (4) and trying to move out from the Parallel channel’s (PC) control line (CL). If that successfully remains above CL, crude oil prices will hike from CL to the resistance line of the PC. That’s a direct call for target levels of 7800 – 8000 – 8360 – 8880+ for short-term investors.
Long-term investors must focus on the wave (5). Black gold will touch the level of 10000 and march for the level of 11000 on the 5th wave completion.
EWT: Will Crude Oil Reach 7000?Crude oil is forming impulsive waves ((5)).
After the completion of wave ((3)), the price had started complex running flat of the corrective wave ((4)).
Wave B has crossed the high of wave ((3)), but wave B couldn't break the low of wave A.
Price has made a failure of swing low, which was a rejection of a downtrend, and crude oil gained momentum.
Price has exceeded the sub-wave B of wave ((4)).
Sub-wave 4 of wave ((5)) is in progress.
If their price breaks out the high of wave 3, we can expect the following target for final sub-wave 6697-6785-6865+ . It means the price has bullish sentiments above wave three and vice versa.
Breakout of the parallel channel shows the weakness of the impulsive wave. Note that wave four can never overlap the starting point of wave 1.
MCX Crude Oil Elliott Wave Cycles Point More Upside
Price had made extreme low at 795 on 20 Apr '20.
It had started a quick recovery after an inviolable bottom-out. Due to bearish sentiments and no evidence of the verified bottom, It had constructed 2nd wave correction. The second wave retraced 38.2% of wave 1, which indicates a sturdy bull trend is ahead!
The acceleration phase lasted for 246 days and, the Fibonacci extension of wave 3 was 161.8% of the wave.
The public participation increased when the price had broken up the high of the first wave. It has the signal for bulls that crude was likely to make a new high.
After the acceleration phase, the price has corrected the bull phase with a double zigzag. It had retraced 38.2% of wave 3.
This correction was sharp in comparison with 2nd wave.
According to the above chart,
Wave 2 has taken 89 trading sessions to correct wave 1.
Wave 4 has taken 45 trading sessions to correct wave 3.
Wave 4 was a surprising disappointment for the bull traders.
Here, wave 3 is not a power extended because it hadn't moved across wave 1.618% of wave 1.
According to the Elliott wave principle, commodities are more often extending at the 5th wave.
Currently, the price has made a new high of 6428 .
Price has entered the corrective phase.
It is constructing the 4th sub-wave of the impulsive wave ((5)).
There are two possibilities,
1. If the price breaks the parallel channel, we can expect 50% to 61.8% retracement for wave 4.
Be aware of the fake breakout!
Remember, entry is also not possible without an exact reversal signal.
Caution: Wave 4 can never overlap the starting point of wave 1.
2. Price is on the control line of the base channel.
The safe trader can enter the buying position when price breaks the wave B.
Be connected with me to get intraday updates.
MCS Crude Oil Technical AnalysisAt present Crude Oil on MCX is trading around 6210 with a day low of ₹ 6197 and made a high of ₹ 6244. Crude oil remained under pressure this week globally.
If we talk on technical side, Crude Oil was running in a fixed channel since Septmber 2021, but on October 27th 2021, it closed below support line and yesterday on 28th Oct, it opened at 6180 with a gap opening of almost 200 points down from its previous day's high.
OPPORTUNITY
You can short crude oil around 6240 today with a stop loss of ₹ 6336 for a taget of ₹ 6065-5990.
Will Crude Oil Hit 5400 Next Weekend?Crude oil has started moving forward since May. It will not stop here. It's just a WXY correction.
According to Elliott's wave theory, it has completed the sub-wave under the 4th wave. It's consolidation time. Crude oil prices may fluctuate between the range of 4000 - 5400 . Hence, long-term investors can keep buying crude oil.
So, what about short-term investors and intraday traders? If you look into 4 hours chart, it seems bullish from here. Crude oil is trying to break the resistance trendline. Whenever that the resistance trendline break, then we may see the prices at 5300 - 5400+ .
Kindly note, if crude oil remains below to resistance trendline, then do not buy.
What happens if it does not break the resistance trendline? I will update my next MCX crude oil report.
MCX Crude Oil In-depth Analysis & TipsMCX Crude oil can go down for a retracement value of 0.236 in the upcoming days. So, intraday traders can set the following targets to make some money: 4560 - 4500 - 4460 - 4400
But, if brent oil breaks $66.60 upside, then change your position for the following targets: 4800 - 4880+
Refer to the recently published NYMEX Brent Oil Futures article:
MCX Crudeoil - Forecasting the Next step with EWTMCX crude oil has made the bullish Elliott wave on the 4H time frame. The fifth wave is remaining, and the trend has to cross 3900 - 4000 - 4040 to complete the fifth wave.
Then the trend will fall for a short time to make the A of the ABC correction. After that, it will rise again to a particular level to make the B, and then fall again for a short time to make the C. This is how the trend will complete the Elliott wave pattern with the ABC correction.
But if it falls, then it will be the failure of the Elliott wave. And targets for the fall will be 3700 - 3650 .
As per the indicators............
DMI- ADX is greater than 25, +DI is above the -DI. DMI shows the allover uptrend. RSI is indicating the uptrend, too.
When MCX Crudeoil touch 4000 levels? - Part IAccording to the daily chart of MCX crude oil, it is further advance for short-term investors. The retracement level of 0.618 is a perfect entry-level.
In the previous update of crude oil, we have recommended buying many times.
As per RSI & MA, it seems bullish. We will see soon target 1 and target 2 price after a short reversal.
But if you want to see a clear trend, we'd see it in a 4 hours chart.
LINK is available in the comment section.
When MCX Crudeoil touch 4000 levels? - Part IICONTINUE: When MCX Crudeoil touch 4000 levels? - Part II
According to the 4H chart of MCX crude oil, it's sharply moving upward. It's safe for intraday & short-term traders to take a position nearby the support trendline or 50 MA for the targets of 3600 - 3660 - 3700 - 3800 .
But what if it breaks the support trendline? DMI is indicating collapse ahead. I will update it soon.
Will Crude oil touch 3648 before 2021?Crudeoil has started an Elliott wave and made the 4th wave, and now it's making a fifth wave. As per the rules of the Elliott wave, the fifth wave will be completed at 61.8% ( 3648 ) or 50% ( 3600 ) of Fibonacci retracement 1+3 .
The 2nd wave is 61.8% of the 1st wave, the 3rd wave is (more than) 261.8% of the 2nd wave, and The 4th wave is 38.2% of the 3rd wave.
After the completion of the fifth wave, there will be the ABC correction. And it would be completed between 3356 and 3216 .
If the trend breaks the 3356 and 3216 both the levels, then the Elliott wave may fail. But if the trend completes the Elliott wave, the trend will again start to rise.
MCX CRUDE OIL: Massive Rally is coming soonAccording to this chart, crude oil will keep moving forward and hit the following targets: 3600 - 4000 - 4400 - 4800 .
Here value 1 of retracement will react as support. And consecutive breakout of this support is a direct sign of a downtrend. It can be up to 0.886 (2982) to 0.786 (2735). You can use it as a target.