Natural Gas Futures Breakout: Key Levels to Watch Above 250 INRThis chart shows the weekly price action for Natural Gas Futures on the MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) with some key technical indicators:
Analysis:
Trendline Breakout: The price has successfully broken out of the symmetrical triangle, signaling a potential bullish reversal. A breakout from this pattern often leads to further upward movement, especially if it’s supported by strong volume.
Key Resistance Levels: With the price near 250, it’s approaching the next resistance levels at approximately 254 and 278. If these levels are surpassed, the next target could be around 305 INR/MMBtu.
Volume Confirmation: The volume is relatively strong, adding credibility to the breakout. A sustained increase in volume would reinforce the bullish outlook.
Trade Plan for Natural Gas Futures:
Entry:
Enter around 250 INR after the breakout confirmation.
Targets:
Target 1: 278 INR
Target 2: 305 INR
Stop Loss:
Set a stop loss below 240 INR to limit downside risk.
Risk Management:
Consider booking partial profits at 278 INR and trail stop to breakeven.
This trade plan is built on the breakout with targets at 278 INR and 305 INR, while managing risk with a stop loss below 240 INR. Watch for volume to confirm momentum, and adjust your stop or book profits as key levels are reached.
Mcxnaturalgas
MCX Natural Gas Analysis for medium termMCX:NATURALGAS1! looks bullish.
If we look at the daily chart carefully, we will see it retraced a lot and tested 125. Then it is mostly a range bound from 140 to 280.
Now this 280 level is also the 23% Fib retracement level.
Around this level the price hits already 5 times, after breakdown almost one and half year back. However this time it has created a W pattern. (or one can say a rounding bottom pattern).
After testing the 280 level in one week back, it retraces back a bit and most likely creating a nice Cup and Handle pattern.
Here are the expectations:
NG will test 280 level once more.
After that if it able to brakes it out 280, it will go to test the next resistance.
The next resistance is 400 level, positionally.
Also fundamentally, per the estimation of International Energy Agency (IEA) Global Gas Security Review, the Natural Gas demand is forecasted to rise by over 2.5 per cent in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025. And it will be steady for next few years even with 1.5 degree Paris Weather convocation.
So stay alert. Above 280 sustains means it's a Buy on Dip on Natural Gas. Till then: Wait and Watch.
MCX Natural Gas – Impulsive Wave SetupA new impulsive structure has emerged from the low of 265.5 in natural gas. Price has accomplished wave (5) and started the zigzag correction at 801.
Currently, Natural gas is forming sub-wave 5 of impulsive wave C. Natural gas has also broken down 200 EMA and the base channel of 2 – 4 wave, which signals bearish momentum. It has faced strong support of 515 , but the price didn’t respect the level and ended up losing bullish momentum.
Wave C has traveled the same distance as wave A. Hence, Wave A = Wave C. If the price sustains below 516, traders can trade for the following targets: 486 – 462 – 440 .
I will update further information soon.
NaturalGas Possible Elliot wave counts (up than down & again up)Hello Friends, here we had shared possible Elliot wave counts of NaturalGas on weekly time frame to daily, 4hourly and hourly time frames which seems aligned with each other, so the conviction increases.
Well, on weekly time frame it seems that post impulse move, currently we are unfolding correction which is already at werge of completion, after A,B we are now in wave C, in which we had already done wave 1-2-3-4 of one lower degree, and now possibly we are unfolding wave 5th of C, and in wave 5th we had done wave i of lower degree and possibly we are unfolding wave ii of 5th of C, still wave iii, iv, and v are pending to complete wave 5th of wave C, which should not go below $ 1.529, because its an initial level of bigger degree wave ((1)) and as per wave principals, wave ((2)) should not retrace more than 100% of wave ((1)), so post completion of wave C we can assume that correction to be finish and hopefully fresh impulse up move should start towards north direction for long term.
Overall very soon we should start fresh impulse for long term along with invalidation level of $ 1.529
One can wait for dips to complete wave 5th of C of bigger wave ((2)) to grab an opportunities to find best entry to go long, so we should have to ride only in right direction because right direction is always more important and better then speed. I am not sebi registered analyst, My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Possible wave counts on weekly chart
Possible wave counts on daily chart
Possible wave counts on 4 hourly chart
Possible wave counts on hourly chart
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
NG (MCX): Week of - 20/03/2023Levels:
Support: 195, 180. 173, 163, 150
Resistance: 200-205, 210, 215, 220
OI Data (24rd March Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance per OI data: 220
Nearest Major Support per IO data: 180
Trade setup:
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
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BUY | > 210 | 210 | 220 | 235
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SELL | < 190 | 200 | 180 | 165
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Natural Gas (MCX): Week of 13/12/2022Levels:
Support: 200, 175, 150, 120
Resistance: 212, 250
OI Data (24rd March Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance per OI data: 220
Nearest Major Support per IO data: 200
Trade setup:
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
-----------------------------------------
BUY | > 220 | 200 | 235| 250
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SELL | < 190 | 210 | 170 |150
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NG (MCX): Week of - 27/02/2023Levels:
Support: 200, 190, 175, 150, 120
Resistance: 220, 235, 250
OI Data (24rd March Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance per OI data: 220
Nearest Major Support per IO data: 200
Trade setup:
1. In the chart, clearly marked which is the No-Trade, which is the BUY and which is the Sell zone.
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
-----------------------------------------
BUY | > 220 | 200 | 235| 250
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SELL | < 190 | 200 | 170 |150
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Natural Gas (MCX): Week of 20/02/2023Levels:
Support: 180, 150, 120
Resistance: 200, 220, 235
OI Data (21st Feb Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance per OI data: 200
Nearest Major Support per IO data: 200 * interesting *
Trade setup:
1. Setup: Bearish
2. 200 is the make-or-break level for this Thursday expiry. (It has 7k Call and 4.2k Put)
3. If it stays above 215-220, there will be short covering, pushing it towards 250. Go long with SL: 200 (1 point = 1250/-)
4. Below 180, it's sell.
5. Best trade is: If the price pull back above 200 (~210 level) and then shows weakness (15m / 30m timegframe), buy NaturalGas 200 PE (23rd Feb).
Put a SL (in Future) as 220. RR is great: 1:3 (210 vs 220 as SL, target 180)
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
-----------------------------------------
BUY | > 220 | 200 | 235| 250
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SELL | < 180 | 200 | 150 |125
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NG (MCX): Week of - 13/02/2023Levels:
Support: 200-190
Resistance: 220, 230, 250
OI Data (21st Feb Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance in NG per OI data: 220, 230, 250
Nearest Major Support in NG per IO data: 200
Trade setup:
1. Looking at the OI data, most likely range-round is: 200-250
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
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BUY | > 230 | 220 | 250| 300
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SELL | < 195 | 205 | 175 |150
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MCX Natural Gas – Elliott Wave projectionNatural gas has completed the impulsive cycle at 801 and started collapsing to form the corrective process. In this corrective cycle, the price has accomplished the corrective wave B and started constructing wave C of normal zigzag correction.
There are two reversal points for natural gas:
1) Wave C can occur near wave (4)
2) wave C can accomplish its corrective cycle at 219.8 where wave A=C.
If the price sustains below the lower band of the channel, traders can expect the following targets: 288 – 275 – 267 . According to Elliott waves, correction can occur near wave (4) of the previous cycle. I already mentioned expected reversal points.
EWT – Is Natural Gas Prepared for a Reversal?In our previous article, we discussed impulsive wave C and its continuation. On 20 January 2023 , Price achieved our all given targets.
Click here -
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Timeframe :
MCX Natural gas has accomplished the corrective wave B and started falling for impulsive wave C. Price has given a reversal from previous wave C, but it is no conclusive evidence that it has completed wave c.
When it comes to confirmation, Traders should watch the level of 313 . If the price breaks out the 313 , it will enter into the parallel channel. Traders can buy for the following targets: 321 – 340 – 366 .
Don’t forget prices are moving outside the channel, which is a negative point for bull traders. Bearish continuation is possible if the price sustains below wave (4).
I will update further information soon.
NG (MCX): Week of - 26/12/2022Levels:
Support: 430, 400, 380, 350
Resistance: 450, 500-520, 550
OI Data (23rd Jan Expiry):
Nearest Major Resistance in Crude per OI data: 450
Nearest Major Support in Crude per IO data: 400
Trade setup:
1. Looking at the OI data, most likely range-round is: 400-500
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Trade | Level | SL | T1 | T2
-----------------------------------------
BUY | > 460 | 425 | 500| 525
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SELL | < 400 | 425 | 380 |350
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Natural Gas (MCX): Week of 05/12/2022In Hourly chart, MCX Natural Gas (NG) is showing a positive divergence. It's clear.
The price is making lows, but the RSI is making higher low. Means price will go up to follow the RSI momemtum.
Max OI for Dec'23 expiry: 550 has max Call and PUT (2.5K total - that's pretty high in NG terms).
Trade Plan:
Expecting price will bounce back from CMP upto 560. Then will again retest this 550-535 zone and may consolidate there.
Trade:
Buy zone: On breakout of 560, SL: 540, T: 600
Sell zone: On breakdown of 530, SL: 550, T: 500
Natural Gas Possible Elliot wave countsNatural Gas, wave 2 of some lower degree is possible completed now, and now at same degree wave 3 may unfold next, with invalidation level of wave 1's low, which is pegged at $ 6.426
If it breaks low of wave 1 ($ 6.426) then it may be invalidate our current bias.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.