EURUSD LONGFOREXCOM:EURUSD
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
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Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!
Metals
GOLD--> The bears are gaining strength! Next target: 2600OANDA:XAUUSD is declining after a false breakout of the resistance range. The fundamental backdrop is mixed and still does not allow for a clear medium- and long-term strategy to be formed. But!...
Trump's tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions are influencing metal prices. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold prices are declining and confirming the market's structure.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on U.S. employment data as the country will release multiple job-related figures ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, we have a trend to watch after leaving the rising channel support and the 2636 area, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment.
A breakout below 2636 could trigger aggressive selling against the backdrop of a newly strengthened dollar. However, the possibility of a retest of the area of interest before continuing the downward trend cannot be ruled out. Gold prices are expected to decline and reach levels of 2610 and 2596, respectively.
Gold --> Interest in this metal is growingGold continues to hold strong as the dollar faces a correction, with liquidity gradually diminishing. Friday’s trading in the US could play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics.
On the H1 timeframe, gold remains firmly within the boundaries of a local bullish channel, driven by the dollar's weakness, which stems largely from the ongoing inflationary environment. Adding to this momentum, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance on interest rate policy continues to act as a tailwind for gold prices. However, this factor appears to be taking a backseat for now.
Meanwhile, the market spotlight is shifting toward the policies of the new US administration, which are expected to bring significant changes to the global economic landscape. These shifts could push central banks to bolster their gold reserves, potentially igniting a surge in central bank gold trading activity.
With the fundamentals aligning for a bullish trend—supported by an ascending channel and strong macroeconomic factors—buying opportunities dominate the strategy. Ideal entries lie around the support zone (aligned with FVG levels) or upon a confirmed breakout above the resistance level. Price targets? Gold's climb toward 2678 and 2694 is drawing closer, signaling an exciting rally ahead!
How to Navigate Gold Investments in the Current Context?In recent days, gold prices have seen a significant decline, currently at $2,630/ounce, down to $18. This reflects clear pressure from investors as they see that US inflation is not yet "hot" enough to expect an early interest rate cut from the Fed, although the core personal spending index has increased by 2.8% over the past 12 months. In correlation with strong economic indicators and current geopolitical sentiment, gold may no longer be the safe haven it has always been.
Looking at the chart, it is clear that gold prices are struggling to maintain the important support level at $2,640, which was clearly broken in the recent trading session. Technical analysis shows that gold is trading below both the 34 EMA and the 89 EMA, which suggests that the short-term downtrend could continue. However, this also opens the door for a price recovery if there are unexpected positive economic signals.
My personal short-term view is that gold prices may continue to be under downward pressure. Stronger-than-expected US economic data and no signs of a change in the Fed's monetary policy are the main factors that are putting pressure. However, in the long term, I remain optimistic about the value of gold as a safe investment, especially in the context of central banks around the world such as Poland and Hungary actively buying gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold--> Trade inside from channel boundaryHi guys,
Gold prices inched slightly higher to $2,650 following a breakout, spurred by political headlines, but the broader fundamental landscape remains clouded with uncertainty. Market liquidity is notably thin today due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, leaving the market ripe for sudden volatility.
Geopolitical tensions continue to play a pivotal role, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict maintaining a strong grip on sentiment. Adding fuel to the fire, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are creating ripples across the market. “This has amplified concerns about potential fallout for these two nations, which in turn provides a key layer of support for gold,” analysts highlight.
However, any push to elevate gold prices could face significant headwinds. Trump’s tariff policies, while unsettling, are seen as potential inflationary catalysts, which might force the Federal Reserve to rethink its trajectory of interest rate cuts. This tug-of-war keeps gold traders on edge.
From a technical lens, gold is caught in a sideways grind. Traders are eyeing a local H1 channel between $2,660 - $2,618, with the broader D1 range extending from $2,690 (or $2,710) - $2,605.
At this juncture, gold seems to be gravitating toward liquidity clusters above current levels. A potential false breakout at key resistance zones, followed by price consolidation in sell-heavy areas, could spell a sharp pullback toward the lower boundary of the sideways range.
For savvy traders, this moment is not just about watching the charts but anticipating the narrative. A delicate interplay of technical setups and geopolitical uncertainties makes every move in the gold market an opportunity wrapped in risk. Will gold reclaim higher ground, or will it succumb to the gravitational pull of its range-bound rhythm? The answer lies just beyond the next breakout—or breakdown.
Gold: Turning Point at $2,650, Recovery or Bearish?On the 1-hour chart of gold, we are witnessing a crucial point as the price is trading close to the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, both of which are forming an area of technical support around $2,650/ounce. The convergence of these two EMAs, combined with the current price, provides an indication that the market may be in a decisive phase.
Technically, if the gold price holds and starts to recover above this support level, it will confirm stability and the potential for a short-term rally, towards the next resistance level. Conversely, a clear and sustained break below $2,650 could open a new bearish trend, sending the price further down, testing lower support levels.
Based on the current moves and market structure, my personal view is that gold prices are likely to see short-term stability above the EMAs, setting the stage for a mild recovery.
GOLD → Controversial fundamental background. What's next?OANDA:XAUUSD capitalizing on the weakening of the US dollar and heading towards the areas of interest and liquidity at 2635 - 2639. But! There are signs that a flag pattern is forming. Theoretically, any attempt for gold prices to rise could be limited. PCE, GDP, and the resistance ahead...
Meanwhile, sellers pause slightly amid concerns about trade wars, geopolitical risks, expectations that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, recently declining US bond yields, and the USD falling overnight to a two-week low. However, ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic news from the US, namely PCE and GDP, after a relatively quiet news week, volatility is likely to be unpredictable. The question now is whether the downward momentum will continue as the price reacts to a critical support zone.
Technically, gold remains range-bound and is heading towards areas of interest from which a retracement could form. But this reaction also partly depends on the news....
The focus is on the imbalance zone, fibo 0.618 and fibo 0.5. Due to the controversial technical and fundamental background, the gold price may close inside a wide channel, which allows us to use its boundaries for trading. We are watching the resistance with a sell target for further downside
Gold Stabilizes Amid Policy and Inflation WaitLooking at the 4-hour chart of gold, we can see a sideways trend in recent trading sessions, especially during the Thanksgiving holiday when the market lacked strong transactions. The stability of gold prices at $2,636/ounce reflects investors' waiting for new signals from the market and policymakers.
The highlight of the chart is the current support and resistance levels. Gold is trading below both the 34 and 89 EMAs, indicating downward pressure, although not too strong. The recent crossover of these two EMAs suggests some price instability, but not enough to determine a clear trend.
In the current context, there are a number of macro factors affecting gold prices that investors should pay attention to. First, expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2025 based on PCE data showing slowing inflation could weaken the USD and support gold as a safe-haven asset. Second, concerns about new tax policies from the Trump administration could create uncertainty in financial markets, making gold more attractive as a safe-haven option.
Personally, I think gold is likely to remain stable or slightly increase in price in the short term, reflecting its role as a hedge against risk in the current environment.
Gold: Sell on the rise is working and still good Gold: Sell on the rise is working and still good , yesterday price failed to re claim 2650 on higher time frame and rejected from there on daily time frame and now price re visiting the support level:2625-28, breakdown from here can result in good decline in lower side so sell on the rise is still good for Intra day.
Gold DowntrendBased on the 1-hour chart of gold trading against the USD, I see a few key points for investors to pay attention to. After a strong rally, gold has seen a significant drop, with the price breaking below both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, suggesting that a short-term downtrend may be forming.
From a technical perspective, the crossover between the two EMAs has previously been a sign of a trend change, and the current price holding below these lines suggests that selling pressure may continue. This rapid decline could be the result of investors taking profits after the price reached new highs.
Technical analysis of XAUUSD chartDear friends, it's Samson here!
Flag Pattern: The chart showcases a well-formed flag pattern, a classic bearish continuation signal.
Target Projection: Using the height of the previous wave 3 of the flagpole, the pattern's target is forecasted to be around $2,553.
Fibonacci Levels: The price is at a level corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,637, a strong bearish signal, with the next resistance near $2,647 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
Breakout Confirmation: A breakout from the flag will confirm the bearish momentum.
Trend Outlook: A macro bearish trend is indicated, supported by resistance rooted in fundamental factors...
Consider, share your opinions and questions, discuss what is happening with OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold-> continue to drop to $ 2600. What will happen?Hi guys,
Gold prices dropped to their lowest level in a week during the Asian session on Tuesday, although spot prices found some support near the $2,600 mark.
Meanwhile, the prevalent risk-on environment, coupled with bets for slower Fed rate cuts and rising U.S. Treasury yields, is driving flows out of the safe-haven XAU/USD. Theoretically, any attempt to push gold prices higher may face limitations.
Ahead, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Technically, gold is attempting to break out of the key range after testing support. If a false break occurs at the 2634 level, a minor correction towards resistance may form.
Resistance levels: 2634, 2649, 2663
Support levels: 2618, 2607, 2600
If sellers hold the price below 2630-2634, the bearish momentum could strengthen. However, as the price is testing strong support, a significant reaction could form a false breakout and a correction, potentially targeting levels like 2649-2663 (fibo 0.5), before continuing the downtrend.
Gold Started the week with Big Bearish Engulfing As predicted in last week posts and on weekly analysis also , gold is moving down and started the week with a big bearish engulfing on daily time frame .On Intraday the resistance area is at 2630-50 (Fib Golden Zone) and under this area we can expect more decline in lower side , In lower side the first support area is at 2562-70 (HVN)(First TP for Sell) and next support area is at Bullish Imbalance zone @ 2530-40 (Second TP for Sell), so selling seems to more favourable for Intra day as of now.
Gold Fluctuates: Geopolitical and Inflation ImpactThe 4-hour gold chart clearly shows the volatility caused by geopolitical and economic events. Gold prices have recovered from lows due to inflation concerns from the new US tax policy, indicating that safe-haven demand for gold remains strong.
Currently, the key support level is at $2,603/oz, with resistance at $2,634/oz. Any break of these two levels will indicate the next direction for gold prices.
Market Comment: Based on technical analysis and current situation, I expect gold prices to increase in the short term. Inflation concerns from the new US tax measures could weaken the USD, supporting gold prices. If prices hold above $2,603/oz and continue to react positively, I expect a further rally, possibly reaching or exceeding $2,634/oz.
GOLD--> Local trend changing? Will it rise to new ATH?Hi guys,
OANDA:XAUUSD after a false breakout at 2700, the price has returned to a correction phase, aiming to consolidate its potential for continuing the trend. In the current situation, the fundamental backdrop is shifting in favor of the metal, which active buyers are pursuing...
Gold has not reacted significantly to the previous rally of the dollar, despite hawkish signals from the Fed.
The reason for the metal's rise lies in the escalation of tensions following the UK and US allowing Ukraine to use weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. Russia responded with stronger attacks afterward. Fundamentally, these actions make gold a safe haven choice for protecting assets.
This week, due to the Thanksgiving holidays in the US, trading volumes are expected to fluctuate sharply at the beginning of the week.
Technically, it is predicted that the precious metal could update its ATH this year. However, short-term levels ahead need to be monitored closely. Specifically:
Support levels: 2685, 2675, 2650
Resistance levels: 2711, 2733, 2750
Nonetheless, the upcoming resistance levels must be observed, as they are likely to trigger the next move for the metal. The adjustment toward the nearest liquidity zones is expected, but we are not talking about a reversal. The correction could end quickly, and the price is likely to return to an upward phase. The medium-term target is 2731-2750...
Gold at Resistance : A sell opportunity ?Yesterday, gold traded higher and closed the day in the positive territory . Today, Gold price climbs extending its gains for the fourth straight day. On the Intra day chart, Gold is now trading above weekly Resistance 1 (2653).
Technically price is at resistance area and trading near to Fib golden zone , this area is perfect reversal zone but the geopolitical evens (War) currently pushing the price higher , for sell we need good confirmation from these resistance area.
Today Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise from 217K to 220K for the week ending November 16 and that can add volatility so we have to watch the reaction accordingly.
Selling seems to be more favourable now for Intra day and for buy we have to look for lower levels but selling need to be assessed with good money management as gold is currently getting safe-haven demand for buyers.
New Gold Mine in China: Aftershocks in the Gold MarketWhen analyzing the daily gold chart, I noticed that a long-term uptrend has been reversed with a clear break below the rising channel line. This tells me that the market may be preparing for a new bearish phase. This decline occurred even as there was news from the US and other major economies on inflation and monetary policy, which would normally have a strong impact on gold prices. In addition, China's discovery of a gold mine with estimated reserves of over 1,000 tonnes in Hunan province is not only a geological event but could also be a major mover in the global gold market.
With gold prices failing to hold the 34 EMA and falling further, the next support area I see is around $2,520 to $2,560/ounce. This will be a key point to see if gold will continue its downtrend.
Gold Trading Strategy for 25th November 2024Gold Trading Strategy: Buy Above 2,725 / Sell Below 2,694
Current Price: 2,716.335 USD
Key Levels:
Buy Signal: If the price closes above 2,725 on the one-hour candle, it indicates an upward momentum, suggesting a good time to consider buying.
Sell Signal: If the price closes below 2,694 on the one-hour candle, it suggests a downward momentum, indicating it might be a good time to consider selling.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 2,750 and 2,766
Support: 2,684 and 2,662
Market Analysis:
The current price is around 2,716.335 USD, indicating potential for both bullish and bearish activity based on the key levels.
Pay close attention to the range between 2,694 to 2,725 for support and resistance levels.
Recommendations:
Buy: If the price sustains above 2,725 on the one-hour candle close, consider entering long positions. Book partial profits at 2,735 or use a trailing stop loss to protect your profit, with targets at 2,750 and 2,766.
Sell: If the price breaks below 2,694 on the one-hour candle close, consider short positions. Book partial profits at 2,785 or use a trailing stop loss to protect your profit, with targets at 2,680 and 2,662.
Disclaimer: This trading strategy is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in financial markets, including gold, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before making any trading decisions. Always conduct your own research and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gold : The fundamental context and goals have both changedOANDA:XAUUSD The breakout of the local downtrend channel has disadvantaged sellers. The fundamental background is changing, despite continued USD buying and the prevailing risk-off environment, which overall favors gold as a safe-haven asset during times of crisis.
The stronger USD, supported by the ongoing "Trump trade" rally, and US bond yields have rebounded across various maturities.
Despite the optimism around the USD, gold prices remain resilient and benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Therefore, gold prices are likely to continue their growth in the near term before today’s scheduled news (PMI)... However! Since this is pre-news before session closing, reactions may consolidate for sellers before further strengthening.
Technically, gold has every opportunity to retest the boundaries of the previously broken channel. However, based on fundamental news and technical factors, we can conclude that further growth may continue.
Prices are heading toward a liquidity zone, from which a correction may occur, followed by expected further strengthening in the near term. But in any case, I prioritize and consider buying upon a clear breakout of gold at 2686 - 2700, targeting the medium-term highs as outlined on the chart.
Gold Rebounds Strongly After US ElectionThe current chart shows that gold has made an impressive recovery after two consecutive weeks of losses, with a clear increase, marking an increase of $135/ounce in the past week. This comes amid a gradual replacement of the pessimism following Donald Trump's election victory by renewed optimism among traders and experts.
Through chart analysis, it is clear that gold is in a strong recovery process. The short-term EMA has crossed above the long-term EMA, indicating a positive trend reversal. This is in line with the results of the latest Kitco News survey, where the majority of experts (89%) and retail traders (66%) predict that gold prices will continue to rise in the coming week.
Looking ahead, I expect this optimism to continue to support gold prices, at least in the short term.