DIIs spoil the party, Drag NIFTY from around 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -17-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17709.65 / 17792.95 / 17537.65 / 17585.15
H-L = 255 points
VIX 15.23 / +5.69%
FII DII: +130 Crores
Likely open: Flat to negative. This is based on the SGX NIFTY and as the US markets close was in negative. A bounce-back is more likely as FIIs have bought in good numbers.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A good gap up with a retest of the opening lows was then bought in to and NIFTY almost touched 17800 but there was immediate and sharp sell-off from 1030 that led to NIFTY falling 225+ points from the day high.
After the first sell-off, it turned rangebound, but then as the market close was nearing, there was another sell-off which meant NIFTY ended below 17600.
It was indeed surprising that the level was given away so quickly.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
KOTAK BANK 17
HDFC BANK 17
HDFC 04
BAJAJ FINSERV 03
BHARTI AIRTEL 02
TOTAL 43
The Draggers
RELIANCE 22
TCS 13
ICICI BANK 08
TATA STEEL 08
INFOSYS 07
TOTAL 58
Lifter - Draggers = -15
POSITIVES
NIFTY went very close to 17800 but failed to clear the line.
BANK NIFTY made a high above 38100.
KOTAK BANK & HDFC BANK outperformed all the other leaders.
HDFC appears to have found some support around 2800.
FIIs have bought in large numbers.
NEGATIVES
INFOSYS is suffering from 1700+ Syndrome as it is unable to hold on to the level for more than a day at a time.
RELIANCE was doing good but late afternoon sell-off brought it below 2400 yet again.
VIX has gone up to 15+ after quite a few weeks.
DIIs have sold heavily.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 20-09-21
17300-17350 is the new support base. For now, 17800 may well prove to be a major resistance as the fall from just below that level was sharp and severe.
BANK NIFTY support lines are 37200-400 and resistances at 38000-38200.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
NIFTY was clearly hijacked by RELIANCE, TCS & INFOSYS. There was extreme volatility and fast movement in NIFTY making it a hard day for the traders.
HDFC BANK retested 1560 levels and then shot up more than 1% to close above 1580 and this along with KOTAK BANK closing above 2000 saved the day for BANK NIFTY as it ended in the green and in the process, helped NIFTY from sinking further.
Clearly, BANK NIFTY is now looking stronger than NIFTY and may well hold the key to NIFTY holding higher levels.
RELIANCE ended the day 65 points lower than the day high which is more than 2% and that is what spooked NIFTY.
SGX NIFTY is showing a gap down of almost 100 points but this is not entirely reliable as we have seen in the past. Since FIIs have bought in large numbers, a gap-down is more likely to be bought into unless there is something else that happens between 19-9 evening and the market open.
Social Media is very quick to signal that the top was made on Friday and now NIFTY is heading down. When August was in good green, it was said that September would be a washout and now when NIFTY kept scaling ATH after ATH in Sep, a fall of 44 points is being called out as end of the road.
The fact is no one really knows and there is no point doing guesswork as in a matter of 23 hours, the day would have ended and clarity would have emerged.
The best approach would be to keep all news and views aside and react to the price action by sticking to the right process that has given you success in the past.
That is what matters in the end.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
19-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
