NIFTY still looks WEAK!!As we can see despite the strong opening, it couldnt sustain itself above the supply zone and fell closing in neutral bias. Based on our previous analysis, we can still expect NIFTY to fall unidirectionally if it couldnt close above psychological level so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
BIG GAP needs to be filled!! MORE downside??As we can see NIFTY showed unidirectional downfall exactly from our trendline RESISTANCE exactly as analysed and we analysed it through the previous day closing of the candle. Now we can see a big gap that needs to be filled below 24860, hence we might see a trap before finally filling in the GAP below which is almost 200 point. SO, one can plan their trades if following criteria is met
Happiest Minds: Charting a Course Through Digital TransformationThis is not just another stock; it's an opportunity to invest in the future of technology. Happiest Minds is on the front lines of the digital revolution, turning complex tech into seamless solutions for businesses worldwide.
Technical Analysis
The provided monthly chart shows that the stock is currently in a downward trend. The price has been following a well-defined downward trend line since its peak. However, it is now at a crucial level, having reached and reacted from a key monthly demand zone (support level). A sustained bounce from this level, coupled with a potential breakout above the downward trend line, could signal a reversal in the short-term trend.
Investment Highlights (The Bull Case)
* Pioneering Digital-First Model: The company’s core business is focused on next-gen services like Cloud, IoT, and Cybersecurity, making it a pure-play in the digital transformation space. This model positions it for long-term growth as enterprises continue to increase their digital spending.
* Strategic Focus on AI: Happiest Minds has proactively established a dedicated Generative AI Business Unit. This forward-looking approach positions it to capture a share of the rapidly growing AI services market, which is a key growth driver for the entire IT sector.
* Experienced Management & Clear Vision: Led by a seasoned management team, the company has a well-defined strategic roadmap, including a stated goal of reaching $1 billion in revenue by 2031. This provides a clear, long-term growth narrative for investors.
Key Risks & Concerns (The Bear Case)
* Growth and Margin Headwinds: Recent financial results indicate a sequential slowdown in growth and pressure on profitability. If the company fails to reverse this trend, its high valuation becomes difficult to justify.
* Premium Valuation: Despite the recent stock correction, the company continues to command a premium valuation compared to its peers. Its high P/E ratio implies significant future growth is already priced in, leaving little margin for error.
* Macroeconomic Environment: The broader IT services sector is facing a cautious global spending environment. This can impact new deal wins and client spending, posing a direct risk to Happiest Minds’ ability to secure future growth.
Conclusion
Happiest Minds stands at a pivotal point. While the company's long-term fundamental story remains compelling, a cautious stance is warranted due to near-term business headwinds and a demanding valuation. For those with a higher risk tolerance, the stock’s current position at a critical technical support level presents a potential short-term opportunity for a well-managed swing trade.
Another RESISTANCE coming UP!!?As we can see NIFTY seems to have broken out of psychological level of 25000 but we can see it is heading towards important trendline resistance hence until and unless we see NIFTY sustaining itself above that trendline with weekly candle close, it can result in false breakout and fall sharply. SO, one shoudl keep these in mind and plan their trades accordingly
We are still below psychological level and imp SUPPLY ZONE!!As we can see NIFTY remained sideways to volatile throughout the day as expected in our previous post but managed to close strong. We will stand by our analysis of selling the rise unless NIFTY sustains itslef above 25000 levels. Moreover, we can see 25000 level has been tested multiple time making it weaker hence any closing can show strong upmove towards new ATH so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
REJECTION from our SUPPLY ZONE! As we can see despite the strong opening, NIFTY couldnt sustain itself above our strong supply zone and psychological level which makes NIFTY get back into range. Hence, now as along as NIFTY doesnt breaks and sustain itself above the psychological level, it can remain negative to sideways with immense volatility so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
NIFTY yet to decide its TREND !!AS we can see NIFTY is still trading in a range and being sideways as expected and analysed. Hence we can expect NIFTY remain sideways throughout this range and we can expect a directional move on the break of either side so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
NIFTY might remain sideways between these RANGEAS we can see NIFTY showed signs of REVERSAL exactly from our demand zone as analysed. Now that it has entered the range, we might see NIFTY maintaining itself inside this zone with positive sentiment so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone
NIFTY couldnt break below!!As we can see NIFTY didnt break below 24340 level and recovered strongly which nullified our analysis as it didnt meet our criteria. Rather, it showed another sign of REVERSAL as it closed above Supply zone which has now turned into DEMAND ZONE. Hence as long as we are above the demand zone, every dip can be bought so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone
Will SHORT below 24340 for 24000As we can see despite sigsn of REVERSAL, NIFTY fell unidirectionally which was completely unexpected which changes the overall scenario from BULLISH to BEARISH. Hence as long as we are below the supply zone, every rise could be sold and can be sold strongly if breaks below 24340 levels and would hold for a bigger target as there is a pending gap that needs to be filled unless a strong demand zone comes up for successful reversal so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
INTU next target around 850 once correction is overINTU has been correcting after finishing an Impulse sub wave.
It will end the correction in the Price band of 745-715.
Why such a big Price band to end the correction ?
Because it has to correct till 4th wave of earlier sub wave
and or resolve technical divergence with the price and RSI so the large band.
How can we trade then for a target of 850 ?
Wait for the price to enter the correction band of 745-715, the price may for the pattern as indicated by Yellow 1-2-3-4-5 wave pointing downwards.,
Wait for good candle stick formation in this band, like morning star pattern, pin bar+bullish candle or piercing candle pattern, now combine this with minimum back to back two positive divergences in RSI with price, entry should be with all condition met so that you are in high probability party., or any of the entry principles one has already developed and practicing.,
How to know if the current rise is impulsive or part of bigger B after entry is made with conditions met?
Once entered, if you can inspect in lower time frame to see if its impulsive(Elliott Wave impulsive pattern), then it is confirmed that price is impulsive towards the target, else one can exit with some profits., and again wait for the price to enter the band and enter with above said conditions.,
How much time it will take for correction to get over and target to reach ?
Time calculation is not part of this view , so the whole thing may take few weeks to couple of months to play out!
PS: This view is fundamental agnostic and it is price action view with Elliott Wave theory applied.,
I will make best efforts to call out if the rise is impulsive or not.,
SIGNS OF REVERSAL!!?As we can see despite the break of psychological level and important support, we saw a strong closing with strong closing and has closed inside the structure which completely changes the sentiment. Hence from here unless and until 24400 is broken and sustained below, every rise can be bought. so, plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
NIFTY can get VERY WEAK below 24500!!!As we can see NIFTY again remained sideways to negative as expected in our previous post but it has been hitting the SUPPLY ZONE multiple times making it very weak! Hence any closing below 24500 with proper closing will not only break the important SUPPORT but also break the psychological level of 24500 which can lead to unidirectional fall which could be SHARP so plan your trades according and keep watching everyone.
SIDEWAYS as ANALYSED!!As we can see NIFTY has taken RESISTANCE from the demand zone turned SUPPLY ZONE and as analysed we saw negative bias which was more like sideways hence sticking to our view, we can expect NIFTY to remain in this range with hint of bearishness due to ongoing economic war so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
much anticipated RESPITE! But will it SUSTAIN!?As we can see NIFTY reversed exactly as analysed in our previous post with proper reasoning. Now that NIFTY is trading around a supply zone which previously acted as a demand zone hence unless and until NIFTY sustains and closes itself above 24800 levels, it is likely to remain sideways and volatile with a hint of negtaive bias so one must not look for positional trades rather focus on scalping only at strong demand and supply zones so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
Nifty - Elliot Wave Counts - Update (Neutral)In our last post we discussed that in short term 25700 is the target and if we cross that, then Leading diagonal gets invalidated and hence we look for much higher levels.
Last post:
Thankfully, we didn't get out in shakeouts and rode the entire move till +25600
Now, unfortunately we did not cross 25700 and hence the chance of Wave 1 or something else ending at 25670 became stronger.
As of now, we are at a place where there is a lot of confusion. I see a 5th up pending in wider indices, but Nifty seems done.
So, is there a possibility that other indices go up, while Nifty just does a pullback as part of the correction and not make a new swing high?
A few charts for reference:
Nifty Smallcap:
Nifty 500:
That's about the counts : From other technicals perspective the move looks very similar to Sep 2022 - March 2023 period. But where in that period are we?
PA (point A)Oct 2022 - where one more high till Dec 2022 is left?
or
PB - Feb 2023 - where we just get a pullback and drift lower?
(I have marked green arrows on RSI charts to show the reference)
So, what do we do in such case?
Ditch nifty, play stocks. Lot of stocks looking good - starting 5th up (Just browse through and you'll find many making similar structure as SmallCap index)
(Hint - Defence, Realty, Autos, Metals, Pharma)
All the best!
I will share updates, if I get more clarity on Nifty - till then enjoy the stocks and trade light - remember we are playing seemingly the last leg. :)
DO NOT SHORT unless 24400 is broken and sustained below!As we can see NIFTY has been maintaining itself in a range and also being volatile as analysed in our previous post. We can still expect NIFTY to maintain itself in a range mentioned in the charts. Now that the tariff has been delayed till 7 AUG, we might see a respite in NIFTY for coming few days and also we can expect an agreement which is less likely to be done by INDIAN side showing soverignity and more likely to impact US indirectly in the long run. Keeping these in mind we must wait for NIFTY so break and sustain either side for confirmation of trend, till trend keep watching and look for scalping opportunities as it reaches demand and supply zones.






















