Multitimeframeanalysis
USD - IS IT KEEPING THE UPPER HAND AFTER ALL?My today's analysis deals with the fact that it could coming to an end with the correcting, and a further rise in the DXY is in front of us.
> We traders know that no one can predict the future and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> Which levels are RELEVANT; I have explained in detail in the following pages.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1. Part = DXY EXPLANATION
- 2. Part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
= Daily - Time frame
- 3. Part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
“INTRODUCTION“
The "DXY" indicator entered on September 28 of this year,
the first time since May 2021, in a downward correction.
> On this day, I published an analysis, which dealt with a possible top in the DXY.
> This forecast turned out to be a precision landing on the day and is to till now the TOP.
(My analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.)
To help you understand the relevance of the "DXY Index", let's take a closer look at it.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a ratio (index) that compares the value of the U.S. dollar using a basket of six currencies.
> EUR = 57,6 %
> JPY = 13,6 %
> GBP = 11,9 %
> CAD = 9,1 %
> SEK = 4,2 %
> CHF = 3,6 %
EXPLANATION
DXY > RISE
One of the currency pairs falls > Pressure on other currency pairs increases = Chain reaction = All currency pairs fall
DXY < FALL
One of the currency pairs rise > Pressure on other currency pairs decreases = Chain reaction = All currency pairs rise
So if you interpret the DXY correctly, you can get confirmation for ideas in other related currency pairs.
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTHLY - Level > WEEKLY - Level > DAILY - Level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
1. MONTHLY – TIME FRAME
SUMMARY
The trend channel shown in the chart formed in May|2011 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Especially its mid-trend line showed many reactions and great interest of the market.
> The price has reached this middle line and has already reacted positively.
> The trend arc is another bullish signal and could serve as additional resistance in the future.
If we look more closely at the "DEMAND" zone, we see that it has already been tested on.
> The monthly candle closed above the zone, which is another positive indicator.
> If we get another rise in the DXY, the marked "SUPPLY" zone, will serve as a very strong resistance and will be a real challenge.
The Fibonacci retracement should serve us as an additional confirmation, and was taken under proof in past movements (last decades).
> The 0.328 level, was breached without another reaction at this time level and the monthly candle closed below it.
> Still pending is the next 0.50 level, which in combination with several arguments, represents a Medium-Strong resistance.
> In the absence of a reaction from this level, we will see another sell-off to the 0.618 level.
Past highs usually serve as resistance, of which we have two.
> HIGH | 01/17 - Already showed a reaction
> HIGH | 03/20 - Reaction still pending
Points and levels of interest are available to us, which have a not irrelevant duration.
> The most significant resistance is the marked POI ZONE (turquoise), with 50 years of experience.
> We can be sure that there is great interest in this one.
> This already proved true with a first reaction, but we must continue to wait for the candle close to confirm the argument.
> If this is "temporarily" broken by a panic in the market, the POI at 102,000 points, serves as the next point of contact.
CHARTS
DXY – Overall picture
DXY – Trendlines
DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES + Market-Structure-Break
DXY – Fibonacci + POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements.
2. WEEKLY – TIMEFRAME
SUMMARY
Besides the already mentioned trend channel, another one is now visible (violet), which was formed in May|2021.
> Regardless of its inconspicuousness, it supports the tenor of the thesis.
> It was respected and must prove itself again in the coming days and weeks.
The additional "SUPPLY&DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched.
As further Fibonacci additions we have:
> A 1.618 level which was almost touched but is still pending to be worked off.
> A 0.786 level which has been able to defend the last two weekly closes.
> A 0.88 level, which in combination with the pending MSB, represents a strong resistance.
CHARTS
DXY – Overall picture
DXY – Overall picture + Monthly
DXY – Trendlines
DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES + Market-Structure-Break
DXY – Fibonacci + POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements.
2. DAILY – TIMEFRAME
SUMMARY
In the chart, further trend lines are drawn, which have shown reactions in the last 4 months.
> These will represent resistances for a possible upward movement.
Because so many elements are drawn in the chart, I would advise you to look again at the chart below, where you see only the S&D zones.
> Some close together with the higher time levels, which reinforces their - resistance/support.
CAUTION (Paler Zones)
> The Supply zone, has been touched before and thus has less resistance.
> The Demand zone, has been breached and thus should not trigger a major reaction, however it could still be "recaptured".
In order to be able to forecast possible target ranges, we would first have to reach the bottom, which has yet to form.
> The plotted levels can still change, but serve as a first reference point.
> If the reached level already represents the bottom, one can see that the FIB levels, beautifully go along with the "Supply&Demand" zones.
CHARTS
DXY – Overall picture
DXY – Overall picture + Monthly + Weekly
DXY – Trend lines
DXY – Supply & Demand ZONES
DXY – Fibonacci
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The market makers only make money when everyone else loses. So what is the current mainstream opinion?"
Run that question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely.
> Another sell-off or a strong USD for now?
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a "temporarily" strong USD.
> If you take a closer look at the area of the - HTF-POI-ZONE - you will see quite quickly that resistances could be enough for a whole arm.
> Bringing this wall down will take more than one run-up, in my opinion.
For this reason, I am assuming a strong USD and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
S&P500 – TRADES | KW47 | INTRADAYIn today's post I present relevant marks of the S&P500 for the next week, which could support the one or the other, in their own analysis.
= since it is a very short-term time frame, I will not comment further.
= the technical analysis approaches, are shown in individual pictures in the contribution. So that an individual interpretation of the respective - standing alone - is possible.
= the title picture shows an example, of a possible trade. This is one of many possible setups, because the current course is not able to take a clear direction.
The following methods are used and shown in the following:
- SUPPLY&DEMAND ZONES
- FIBONACCI LEVEL
- POINTS OF INTEREST
- TREND LINES
SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES
„4 hour + 1 day – time window“
„1 hour – time window“
„1-4 hour + 1 day – time window“
FIBONACCI LEVEL
„Intraday - time window“
„Day - time window“
POINTS OF INTEREST
„4 hour - time window“
TRENDLINES
„Intraday - time window“
„Day - time window“
RAW VERSION WITHOUT DRAWINGS
„4 hour - time window“
„1 hour - time window“
> Feel free to discuss this in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on this.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
DXY – TRADES | MTF ANALYSE | KW48In today's post I present relevant marks of the DXY for the next week, which could support the one or the other, in their own analysis.
= the technical analysis approaches, are shown in individual images in the post. So that an individual interpretation of the respective - standing alone - is possible.
= the title picture shows an example, of a possible trade. This is one of many possible setups because the current course isn`t able to take a clear direction.
PERSONAL ASSESSMENT
If you look at the price in the higher time frames, you can quickly see that "without" another correction, we have been in free fall.
Thus, an intermediate correction in the smaller time frames is long overdue and could possibly await us next week, with a rising USD / DXY.
This just announces itself with a MACD divergence, in the small-time units. This does not mean that the price must immediately react to it, however, over the next few days after a possible small sell-off, the whole thing can run in the opposite direction.
Why this is so, I explain to you in the following.
MARKET MAKERS MOVE THE PRICE .
The DXY has been in correction for 2-months and many market participants assume a further USD value decline.
And exactly there is the existing problem,
-> "many market participants" are on the USD short side.
If you look a little bit into the TRADING of the HEDGE funds and banks, you will quickly come to the conclusion that without their participation, the market will not move.
1. from the moment the price moves permanently in one direction, it is no longer interesting for large investors.
2. their opportunities to make money are very small, which is why they have to reverse the market direction or initiate a consolidation.
This in turn is due to the following reasons:
- The position sizes of these investors are too large to be executed in a normal market environment.
- For this reason, you can e.g. only build LONG positions if enough investors sell to you = go SHORT.
- Thus, when the market falls, they can build a LONG position piece by piece, without having a "visible" influence on the market.
Then, when you decide that their position size has been successfully filled, let the price go in the opposite direction.
- During the e.g. upward movement, profits are then taken piece by piece where liquidity is highest so that the market does not break away again after these profit-takings.
So that you are prepared for both scenarios (LONG / SHORT), I have carried out the analysis combined with the different time units (monthly, weekly, daily and INTRA-Day) and in the following with chart images.
The following methods are used and shown below:
- MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSIS
- TREND LINES + TREND CHANNELS
- SUPPLY&DEMAND ZONES
- FIBONACCI LEVEL
- MACD
MONTHLY TIME FRAME
WEEKLY WINDOW
DAY WINDOW
INNER DAY TIME WINDOW
4h + LONG
4h + SHORT
1h
4h Divergence - MACD - Intraday
> Feel free to discuss this in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
Multi Timeframe Analysis on ACCELYA The chart above says it all.
Daily TF Analysis :- If you look at daily TF you will find this stock made a high of 1530-1540 last year, then it fell down.
This year in November 2nd week it broke out that level and right now it is retesting that previous resistance level.
From price action point of view this is a good entry point.
Hourly TF Analysis :- in hourly time frame a good support can be seen forming, right now the RSI is also at 23 (Highly Oversold).
15 Minute TF Analysis :- in M15 the RSI value is at 21, indicating oversold condition in this timeframe also.
Conclusion :- this stock can be a good candidate for swing as well as positional trading.
For swing trade Entry would be - 1530, SL - 1480, Target - 1670 (Risk : Reward = 1 : 2.8).
Disclaimer - Do your own research before taking any Trades.
Exide Industries Flag Pattern Breakout The price has bottomed out and reversed from Multiyear Support at around 130-135 INR.
Broke the previous High on the Daily timeframe and then proceeded to break the Channel pattern on the upside.
Breakout created a new high (175 INR, which is also 200EMA level on the weekly timeframe) & Retraced (Failed breakout).
Retraced and consolidated and then gave a breakout again.
Entry Price: 160-165 INR
SL Price: 145- 150 INR
Confirmation of Breakout: after breaking of 175 level, which is 200 EMA resistance (Green line)
Target1: 181-184 (If no consolidation at targets, then next 1-2 months)
Target2; 191-194 (If no consolidation at targets, then next 3-6 months)
Target3: 210-215 (If no consolidation at targets, then next 9 months-1 years)
IRCTC: Cup and handle pattern BREAKOUT
Monopoly in the sector.
Strong Fundamentals with good ROE.
Cup & Handle formation is complete.
The price is above 50 and 200 MA.
Handle breakout is seen, however, there is an immediate STRONG SUPPLY ZONE (acting as resistance) just above the Handle region.
This STRONG SUPPLY zone has been broken today with a gap-up opening indicating bullish momentum.
Stoploss has been marked in Orange.
Two Target Price/Take Profit level has been marked in Red lines.
RAMKY - Multi year breakout stock - Monthly/Weekly ChartThe analysis is done on Weekly and Monthly TF hence price may take few weeks to few months in order to reach the targets.
Below is the monthly timeframe chart for broader picture -
Trade setup is explained in image itself.
Targets are calculated for different patterns shown in chart - by calculating the max depth from the resistance and then copying it above the resistance neckline.
The above analysis is purely for educational purpose. Traders must do their own study & follow risk management before entering into any trade
Checkout my other ideas to understand how one can earn from stock markets with simple trade setups. Feel Free to comment below this or connect with me for any query or suggestion regarding this stock or Price Action Analysis.
Wipro near a break down (26/09/22).Wipro has been consolidating in a range and is forming a double bottom pattern on the weekly time frame.
The stock has closed below its 200 ema (weekly chart).
The whole IT sector has been in a consolidation phase and is near its recent low.
On the daily time frame, stock has given a negative candle and retested its levels of 400.
Confirmation points.
1. Closed below 200 ema (on weekly time frame)
2. Started trading below 400 level.
3. Head and shoulder pattern on daily time frame.
If the stock closes below 392 level on hourly time frame, a trade can be initiated.
Target :- 386.5, 374
Wait for the stock to close below the levels. A price action is must to enter the trade.
Bank Nifty (Neowave Forecast)NSE:BANKNIFTY
Hi Everyone
This is an chart of Bank Nifty where we are in a bullish trend which has been extended.
Currently we are in L series in which we have completed 5 wave structure in M series, but rally has been extended and we are again in M series.
Completed wave M1 and we are in correction of wave M 2. We likely to go up as long as we are above invalidation Level.
Coming soon features.
1) An Neowave Library
2) Video Updates
3) Education series
Thank You.
If you are an our new subscribers, you wondering what is L and M. Kindly see the below chart and click on it to view it in details.
TRIL #Watchlist
#TRIL (M):-CMP 51.95 Looks Good above 55, Ready For Big Blast :)
#Disclaimer:-View shared is for educational purposes only. Conduct your due diligence before making any trading or investment decisions.
HINDCOPPER - Bullishness?HINDCOPPER has given a trendline Breakout and also Resistance Breakout with Good volume in D1 Timeframe. It took support from Multi-Year Trendline which was broken in Feb 2021. One can go long with 50% quantity above day high and wait for a retest opportunity to enter with remaining 50%. Keep your Recent swing low and Trail.
Note : HINDCOPPER is going to release their Q2 Result on August 13.
Disclaimer :- I'm not a SEBI registered analyst. This all are my personal view. Information given is for educational purposes only. Do your own analysis before investing.
Intraday Price Action Indicator - Multi TimeframeHi,
Success in the stock Market without good Tool and Guidance is Challengeable.
Here is the Indicator which is very user friendly and effective for intraday Trading. Please checkout the Signature tab and Join the link if you need this.
Details of the Indicator:
Method of Trading – Intraday, Positional or Swing – Indices, Stocks and Commodity Markets
Golden Zones : When two or more indicator levels are confluences at one price point which will act as Strong Support and Resistance in the Market. That is called Golden Zone.
CPR & Pivot (Daily / Weekly / Monthly) – Based on the previous Timeframe values, it will automatically calculates the Support and Resistance values for the upcoming Sessions.
BUY / SELL Levels (W-Refers the Weekly levels) – Possible Reversal in the market we can expect at this price level. Depends on the Time frame (Daily/Weekly)
Bull BO / Bear BO (W-Refers the Weekly levels) – Possible Breakout level, If breakout happens price will move to reach the Target 1 and 2 Points based on which side the price breaks ( BULLISH / BEARISH ). We can initiate our BUY/SELL Entries.
Target 1 & Target 2 – Once the Price breaks the Breakout (Bull BO / Bear BO) levels, it will try to reach the Target Points where we can book our profits.
Tomorrow Levels - This will help us to enable the next day trading session Support and Resistance Levels in advance to do pre-analysis to prepare for the Entry and Exits.
Colored Candles : Lime Green and Violet colored candles will indicate the Possible Trend Reversals.
Triangles : Orange and Violet triangles will indicate the Confirmation of Trend Reversal.
BUY / SELL Signal – Considering the momentum and the Trend change it will suggest the possible entry time.
Dashboard :
1. Weekly Trend : This will indicate how the current week trend is going to be – Trending / Sideways
2. Today – Current Session expectation in the Market ( Bullish / Bearish )
3. Sentiment – Indicates the Traders mind set (Positive/Negative Side)
4. Range - This will indicate how the current Day trend is going to be – Trending / Sideways
5. MB / MA Trend – This identifies the major trend (Is the Stock / script in Up Trend or Down Trend)
6. Other Parameters – Will indicates the present situation in the market
7. RSI Values – This is to know and understand the momentum of the particular script